Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news the world is looking for even more workarounds to avoid having to deal with a Trump-America.
First however, this week is going to be a busy one locally with important data releases on December retail sales (another less-than-inflation tiny rise is expected), and the Q4 CPI data (expected to hold at 3.0%). But a higher-than-expected result will likely bring outsized financial market reactions. There will also be another full dairy auction on Wednesday.
In Australia, it will all about their December jobs data, and a good bounce-back from the unexpectedly weak November result is being looked for.
Globally, the most interest will be on the big data dump from China this week. Their Q4-2025 GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.4% dipping their full year expansion to 4.9%. House price, retail sales, and industrial production data is also due, and they are all expected to be tame. Their central bank will review its Loan Prime Rates, but no change is expected from their already record low levels.
In Japan, their central bank will be reviewing their policy settings, although no change is anticipated this time. However there is intense interest about possible future rate signals.
Central banks in Indonesia and Malaysia are scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions as well.
In the US, financial markets will be closed tomorrow for MLK Day. But then they will release key data on inflation, the PCE version, as well and the second Q4-2025 GDP update. But most interest will be on a flood of Q4-2025 corporate earnings reports, dominated by their big industrials.
Over the weekend there were important data releases from the US too. Industrial production rose marginally in December from November to be +2.0% higher than year ago levels.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index retreated in January from December and back to October levels and -21% lower than year ago levels. Builder sentiment deteriorated across all components of the index.
The New York Fed's regional services sector tracking reports yet another sharp contraction in their region in January, although not as sharp as in December.
US data is often confusing, telling different stories. Enough so all sides can claim 'victory'. But some overarching measures paint a tougher story. Inflation feels like stagflation to most consumers. And that is confirmed by the latest data on the share of economic activity flowing to workers. It is now at its lowest level ever, since this series began 80 years ago. It is a telling data series, one that has dived fast recently.
Across the border, Canadian housing starts turned in another strong result in December, up by +11% from November, to the highest rate in five months. That caps a good full year, up +5.6% in 2025 from 2024.
The Canadian prime minister has been in China and has negotiated a truce with Beijing in their tariff tussle. The Chinese will now import large volumes of Canadian crops in return for up to a 49,000 car concession for Chinese EVs. Those will displace US-sourced EVs. The Canadian farm lobby is happy, their car-manufacturing lobby isn't.
China continues to run down its holdings of US Treasury investments with them falling -11.2% in November from a year ago. Their holdings of US paper drops them to third place behind Japan and the UK. Overall foreign holdings of US debt actually rose +7.3% in the year to US$9.35 tln, a record high. That is 30% of the US$30.8 tln of debt that isn't internal. That is down from the peak proportion (35%) about a decade ago.
Malaysia's economic activity continues to impress. They recorded Q4-2025 GDP growth of +5.7% with a strong factory sector supported by strong internal demand.
Singapore's (non-oil) exports rose +6.1% in December from a year earlier, a moderated pace of growth from November. (Their refined oil exports grew at more than twice that pace.) This means that Singapore's non-oil full-year 2025 exports came in +4.8% above their equivalent 2024 level.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.23%, unchanged from this time Saturday and its highest since September. A week ago it was at 4.18%. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +63 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at +26 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +57 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.85%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 2.18%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.70%, also dipping -1 bp from Saturday, up +3 bps from a week ago. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.47%, unchanged from Saturday, up +3 bps for the week.
The price of gold will start today at US$4596/oz, and up +US$15 from Saturday. Silver is now just under US$90/oz.
American oil prices are down -50 USc from Saturday at just under US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at US$64/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday, now at just over 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.7, and up +10 bps from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,130 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just on +/- 0.3%.
Please note that the Wellington region is on holiday on Monday, January 19, 2026. The rest of the country is open normally.
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7 Comments
“the share of economic activity flowing to the workers.” There used to be a BBC radio comedy parliamentary skits in which often “what about the workers”:was sung out by the opposition. But this in the USA is no comedy and as the author notes, it is telling. These too are captioned as non farm stats and that sector is suffering from cessation of exports for which subsidies provide compensation far short of the mark. President Trump in his campaigning assured the people of America that they were being badly treated and that he would make them better off. Outcomes such as these are starting to confirm that he is now making them worse off. The American worm can turn, and en masse, but it would be more of a giant snake.
That graph looks to have been quietly downward for 70 years, and especially so for the last 25 years or so. So, does reflect the accumulation of wealth to the rich and the decline of the middle class?
Try this one:
by Independent_Observer | 10th Mar 25, 6:01pm
Interesting chart from Hussman - wages from incomes vs corporate profits (adjusted relative to GDP).
Like the housing market, something appeared to break in the 1990s where massive $$ flowed into asset prices or corporate profits in comparison to remuneration to workers.
https://x.com/hussmanjp/status/1898780388316909754?s=46&t=MUwQeKa7MkEJ7…
To which the reply was "What about thew workers indeed, sah?"
Peter Cook and Dudley Moore, from memory.
Along with: "What, every bleedin' Friday?"
They don't make 'em like that anymore.
But the big point is - and has always been - that cheap stuff (Walmart, Ka mart, Warehouse, now Temu) cannot be made using buyer-level incomes. Hence Trump will not retrieve industry, unless the US reverts to essentially slavery. Which it appears to be on track to do.
If we had any moral gumption, we'd cut ourselves loose.
David. Genuine question. That index of labour market share. I assume that is just wages and benefits. Wouldn't the automation that has been invested last 20/30 years lower that index? AI too? Perhaps too early for those impacts?
We should be noting the impact of robotic milking in the dairy industry here by now also. I have no idea if any industry body tracks this. Does anybody else know?
Automation is energy efficiencies - which always benefit the shareholder/owner, never the displaced worker.
The problem comes when you need said displaced worker, to be the buyer of said automation.
The First-World fudged that for the last couple of decades, by pretending their real-estate was worth perpetually more - and spending the numbers.
That had to be temporary. And was.
The center cannot hold... - resilience
'More importantly, the resource base that fuels all this misery and the stable biosphere that supports it are both fast failing. (Hence the flailing about grabbing what’s left.) So even if there is a will, there will not be a way to enslave and destroy the entire planet, not for many hundreds of years, if ever again. This is the beginning of the end…'
So obvious - except to those who need to believe it isn't.
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