Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news everyone decided to take their precious metals profits at the same time and prices have dived today. There was a trigger.
But first, US producer prices rose +3.0% in December from the same month a year ago, defying expectations they would fall to +2.7%. Core data was up +3.3%, the fastest rise since July.
Meanwhile in Chicago, the region's PMI made a spectacular recovery, one quite unexpected. New orders rose in this survey, employment surged. It is in complete contrast to the prior 25 consecutive months of decline. (However it will be worth waiting a month to know if this isn't just a rogue survey, one they have every two years or so. This last such unusual surge in November 2023 wasn't sustained.)
In Washington DC, Trump said he will appoint Kevin Warsh from the conservative Hoover Institute and member of the billionaire Este Lauder family,to replace Powell when Powell's term ends in May 2026. The choice seemed to trigger the precious metals selloff. Trump once thought of appointing Warsh in 2017 but pulled back on doubts he would be compliant. Since then Warsh has become more MAGA.
In Japan, they reported that its retail sales unexpectedly fall in December, although it did recise up its November retail sales results.
However, Taiwan said its economy expanded at more than a +12% rate in Q4-2025 in a spectacular release, and their best quarter ever. That means all of 2025 was up +8.6%, even better than the outstanding 2025 gain of +5.3%. No wonder Beijing covets the neighbouring island nation.
Indian bank loan growth is still rising very fast indeed, up more than +13% year on year in its January 9, 2025 data released overnight
In Europe, the Eurozone economic activity rose +1.5% in 2025, up +1.6% in the wider EU, up from +0.9% in 2024 and better than the European Commission’s projection of +1.3%. Resilient household consumption, lower borrowing costs and easing inflation, and a surge in exports to the US all contributed to the better result. Germany and Italy were laggards, France about average, and Spain expanded at double the overall average.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday., down -2 bps for the week The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +71 bps (up +2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +33 bps (also up +2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +56 bps (up +2 bps as well). The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 2.26%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.79%, unchanged from yesterday, down -5 bps for the week, up +3 bps for the month. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.64%, down -1 bp from yesterday, up +2 bps for the week, up +13 bps for the month.
Wall Street is lower with the S&P500 down another -0.3% in Friday trade. That will make it up +0.4% for the week if it doesn't fall any further, and back to where it started the year. Overnight, European markets were higher with London up +0.5% and Frankfurt up +0.9%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Friday session down -0.1% for a weekly +0.6% gain. Hong Kong was down -2.1% but a weekly +2.0% gain. Shanghai fell -1.0 on Friday to be -0.7% lower for the week. Singapore ended down -0.5%. The ASX200 fell -0.7% in its Friday trade for a weekly +0.3% rise and a +1.8% monthly rise. The NZX50 rose +0.6% in its Friday trade to end its week down -0.2% and itrs month down -0.9%.
The Fear and Greed Index is still in the 'neutral' zone, the same as last week. Update: It has just moved into the 'greed' zone.
The price of gold will start today sharply lower at US$4882/oz, down an outsized -US$391 from yesterday and now well off its recent highs and down -US$100 from a week ago. Don't forget it started the year at US$4366/oz. Silver is down very much more to US$US$84/oz, a -US$28.50 or -28% crash. Platinum has dived -19% overnight to US$2101.
And while we are at it, copper is down -5% and tin is down -3% overnight. Aluminium is down -3.5%.
American oil prices are down -50 USc at just over US$64.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$1.50, now just under US$69/bbl. From a week ago these prices are down -US$3.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at 60.4 USc. That is a weekly appreciation of +100 bps. From the start of the month it is up +300 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 86.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just over 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 64, and up +10 bps from yesterday, up +80 bps for the week, up +210 bps for the month, almost all because the USD devaluation in global markets.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,036 and down another -2.1% from this time yesterday. That makes it down -7.5% for the week down for the month. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%.
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32 Comments
It was a bit disappointing that the post below did not lead to a good thread of conversation yesterday. Given the massive Gold and SIlver correction, can we have another go ?
by Yvil | 30th Jan 26, 8:26am
What is happening to Gold? It seems to have turned from a sleepy price-steady rock, to a speculative asset.
Anything that rises as much as the PM have recently will have some corrections. However the rapid price increases will also have made it easier for TPTB who are trying to manage these prices. Any traders in the futures markets who saw continued price rises and have recently jumped on the bandwagon will have been easy pickings for the TPTB.
The following comment from Ed Steer is from the previous day however the overnight price action was similar but more exaggerated. His comments tonight will no doubt be more colourful.
It was another day of waterfall engineered price declines in all four precious metals -- and my favourite was palladium...as it was an absolute straight line. For a change, I didn't see any stories on Sharps Pixley about traders taking 'profits'...which the sort of story one sees quite a few of on days like yesterday.
As the many traders that I know that subscribe to my column...no profit-maximizing sellers, ever sell like that, ever, ever...EVER! If they did, they'd be looking for a new career in short order...most likely as a greeter at Walmart.
Most traders that that were long on margin in anything precious metals-related, certainly got blown out of their positions if they couldn't meet their margin calls. Yesterday, at the COMEX close, was when the rest of the traders holding February futures had to roll or sell -- and 'da boyz' were there to convince them to do the latter.
Nick Laird informed me that the CME raised the Gold Bond Margins from 5 to 6% starting today.
I had an interesting conversation last night with a trader who trades silver options on the COMEX -- and has been doing it for decades. He, along with another trader, have been mostly blocked from trading silver options not only in the COMEX trading session, but in the after-hours market as well. He was trying to buy some last night on that big engineered price decline, but was blocked -- and is trying to get his broker to unblock it and fix things so he can trade the market. He thinks there some kind of conspiracy going on.
Thanks for your interesting contribution 3cts.
Ed's comments from yesterday
What we were witness to yesterday was as a brazen in-your-face criminal act by the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe...as they all acted in unison, lock-step -- and totally premeditated.
And the reason it was 'da boyz' is for the simple reason, as Ted Butler explained every time we had these across-the-board engineered price declines, was because the thousands of traders in the non-commercial and small trader categories didn't have a Zoom call after the markets closed on Thursday to plot how they could collectively lose many billions of dollars on Friday.
Nor did they collude on setting their respective low ticks at 1:39 p.m. EST...which were the exact engineered low ticks in all four precious metals...to the second.
Terry Duffy, the head of the CME Group, should be in jail for this. That's for the simple reason that as this 'X' post from Chris Martenson pointed out yesterday -- and that Mark Hagen sent our way..."FYI the CME is violating its own "rules". There are supposed to be "circuit breakers" with the first tripped at 10%. Here we are WAAaaaAy past that moment, and the CME is 'letting it rip.' Which they wouldn't do if things were going the other way, of course."
.....
However, if I had to bet the proverbial ten bucks, I'd say that if you were looking for an entry point on a dip...it was handed to you on a silver platter yesterday. The only reason I wasn't a buyer on Friday was because my website was down for about nine hours -- along with an in-box full of e-mails the likes I've never seen...so I had my hands full.
I suppose there may be some follow through, as 'da boyz'...along with other members of the Plunge Protection Team...continue to run the dollar shorts in order to get more Managed Money traders to sell longs and go further short.
That process may have been been helped along a bit more by the fact that the CME Group added insult to injury yesterday. In an e-mail that I received from Nick Laird, he advised me that..."they raised gold bond margins from 6% to 8% -- and silver bond margins from 11% to 15%". Normally they increase them on sharply rising prices...not on sharply falling ones. Anything to help their largest and most important customers...the Big 8 commercial shorts. The CME and CFTC are up to their necks in this price management scheme.
More discussion on silver and SLV here
buy the dip?
Need a dipstick for that?
i think silver was a short squeeze more then gold, , add to gold on big dips
Morgan Stanley Quants: Over $4 Billion In Forced Selling In Gold, Silver ETFs Today
"buy the dip?"
For me, yes. I've been frantically buying more since I woke up at 7:30 am before the market closes. I don't want to wait until Monday's opening.
"...Warsh has become more MAGA"
Sounds a bit like becoming "more pregnant"
Great opportunity to enter silver especially. That will shake out the weak hands and more
reminds me of the cmc markets ad where the guy makes 7k while cooking snarlers on the BBQ, but oppisite.
Try losing 70k overnight last night ;-)
Did you really lose anything? Silver is still massively up for the month of January 2026.
True, I'll rephrase it then, I'm up $70 k less than I was 24 hours ago. Even this is debatable, since no gains have been realised.
That will shake out the weak hands and more
The weak hands are the ones trying to radically improve their net positions by dabbling in these sandpits.
The further to the luck end of the spectrum your efforts are, the less you're likely to make.
Great opportunities in the very volatile metal markets.
I will look to add more ASX miners if they react and go momentarily crazy cheap on Monday.
Working to see where Gold/Silver/Copper values are by mid and years end. All have different fundamental drivers - yet seem to often move up and down in sync.
Thoughts of the "Interest Team Brains Trust" is always Interesting!
Thoughts?
All have different fundamental drivers
Not when they're moving like this.
Whenever we have one of these asset class booms, everyone under the sun jumps out to attest the price movements make sense according to whatever theory or prophesy underpins them.
When Bitcoin got around $100k, we got to listen to people proclaim that value was justified by *insert arguments for Bitcoin here*. But at the moment, the relative value of Bitcoin disproves many of those statements. So many of those touted arguments, are fairly thin.
When times are normal and values stable, you can use rational to justify them. When they're moving like this, they're indicative of behaviour/emotions/mindsets you may not want to be joining.
Coppers rise can imho, be most justified by the need for tons of new electrical cables and connections for new data and electrical motor/cabling rollouts. It can still rise a lot and all stock will be get used in industry.
The other two, much more speculative and perhaps the monetary reset away from the mighty USD will continue to be drivers, after this dip.
Will be very interesting to see how many truly smartypants or dipsticks will wade in and buy up this Gold/Silver dip ??
Coppers rise can imho, be most justified by the need for tons of new electrical cables and connections for new data and electrical motor/cabling rollouts
Oh yeah, cause of how much growth AI and electric vehicles are going to continue to experience for the next few years. All the companies making big pledges will still be able to prevail, and thrive in this emerging industry. The hundreds of billions of dollars being floated will be produced, and none will be wasted.
Charts make sense now, as you were.
The timing is almost too perfect to be purely accidental.
Friday afternoon slam in the US market on the last day of the month. Shanghai market is closed for Lunar New Year holiday and not able to buy the dip until the new week. It forces a monthly close that looks bearish on technical charts.
Next week will be interesting…
Engineered by the big US/World Bullion paper trading and shorting banks?? The Most exposed to high prices?
Perhaps today's activity is them fighting for their lives?
Time may tell. If only we have a Timelord on hand?
Certainly has the elements of a calculated survival move.
But it does not take a Time Lord to see these slams only work in the short term.
They cannot fix a structural deficit in silver. Silver is still in its 5th year of a supply shortage.
They cannot fix a structural deficit in silver. Silver is still in its 5th year of a supply shortage.
It's not the physical existence of silver that's being valued.
It's what it's believed to represent.
Value based on "belief" in the context of the current silver market, is arguably the least relevant factor.
Exactly, those fundamentals did not change overnight. Paper market dislocated from the physical some time ago. Look at the premium in Shanghai that can’t seem to be corrected via arbitrage.
"The timing is almost too perfect to be purely accidental"
Indeed TL, see the post above by Threecents| at 12:41pm
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