Gold & silver reverse spectacularly; Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed chair; Taiwan GDP rockets higher; Indian loan growth high; EU GDP rises; UST 10yr at 4.24%; precious metals prices crash; oil dips; NZ$1 = 60.4 USc; TWI-5 = 64

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news everyone decided to take their precious metals profits at the same time and prices have dived today. There was a trigger.

But first, US producer prices rose +3.0% in December from the same month a year ago, defying expectations they would fall to +2.7%. Core data was up +3.3%, the fastest rise since July.

Meanwhile in Chicago, the region's PMI made a spectacular recovery, one quite unexpected. New orders rose in this survey, employment surged. It is in complete contrast to the prior 25 consecutive months of decline. (However it will be worth waiting a month to know if this isn't just a rogue survey, one they have every two years or so. This last such unusual surge in November 2023 wasn't sustained.)

In Washington DC, Trump said he will appoint Kevin Warsh from the conservative Hoover Institute and member of the billionaire Este Lauder family,to replace Powell when Powell's term ends in May 2026. The choice seemed to trigger the precious metals selloff. Trump once thought of appointing Warsh in 2017 but pulled back on doubts he would be compliant. Since then Warsh has become more MAGA.

In Japan, they reported that its retail sales unexpectedly fall in December, although it did recise up its November retail sales results.

However, Taiwan said its economy expanded at more than a +12% rate in Q4-2025 in a spectacular release, and their best quarter ever. That means all of 2025 was up +8.6%, even better than the outstanding 2025 gain of +5.3%. No wonder Beijing covets the neighbouring island nation.

Indian bank loan growth is still rising very fast indeed, up more than +13% year on year in its January 9, 2025 data released overnight

In Europe, the Eurozone economic activity rose +1.5% in 2025, up +1.6% in the wider EU, up from +0.9% in 2024 and better than the European Commission’s projection of +1.3%. Resilient household consumption, lower borrowing costs and easing inflation, and a surge in exports to the US all contributed to the better result. Germany and Italy were laggards, France about average, and Spain expanded at double the overall average.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday., down -2 bps for the week The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +71 bps (up +2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +33 bps (also up +2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +56 bps (up +2 bps as well). The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 2.26%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.79%, unchanged from yesterday, down -5 bps for the week, up +3 bps for the month. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.64%, down -1 bp from yesterday, up +2 bps for the week, up +13 bps for the month.

Wall Street is lower with the S&P500 down another -0.3% in Friday trade. That will make it up +0.4% for the week if it doesn't fall any further, and back to where it started the year. Overnight, European markets were higher with London up +0.5% and Frankfurt up +0.9%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Friday session down -0.1% for a weekly +0.6% gain. Hong Kong was down -2.1% but a weekly +2.0% gain. Shanghai fell -1.0 on Friday to be -0.7% lower for the week. Singapore ended down -0.5%. The ASX200 fell -0.7% in its Friday trade for a weekly +0.3% rise and a +1.8% monthly rise. The NZX50 rose +0.6% in its Friday trade to end its week down -0.2% and itrs month down -0.9%.

The Fear and Greed Index is still in the 'neutral' zone, the same as last week. Update: It has just moved into the 'greed' zone.

The price of gold will start today sharply lower at US$4882/oz, down an outsized -US$391 from yesterday and now well off its recent highs and down -US$100 from a week ago. Don't forget it started the year at US$4366/oz. Silver is down very much more to US$US$84/oz, a -US$28.50 or -28% crash. Platinum has dived -19% overnight to US$2101.

And while we are at it, copper is down -5% and tin is down -3% overnight. Aluminium is down -3.5%.

American oil prices are down -50 USc at just over US$64.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$1.50, now just under US$69/bbl. From a week ago these prices are down -US$3.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at 60.4 USc. That is a weekly appreciation of +100 bps. From the start of the month it is up +300 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 86.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just over 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 64, and up +10 bps from yesterday, up +80 bps for the week, up +210 bps for the month, almost all because the USD devaluation in global markets.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,036 and down another -2.1% from this time yesterday. That makes it down -7.5% for the week down for the month. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».