Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the real economic markers in the world's largest economy painted a very lackluster picture today.
US mortgage applications retreated again last week, for a second consecutive week. But these are still running well above year-ago levels. The refinance activity retreated but the big fall was for new purchase finance.
Private businesses in the US added just +22,000 jobs in January according to the comprehensive ADP survey, (sample size of 26 mln) following a downwardly revised +37,000 rise in December and below forecasts for a +48,000 rise. Among these lackluster totals hiring in the health care sectors was a standout, adding +74,000 jobs. It was retrenchment in many others, including manufacturing.
Remember the January non-farm payrolls report won't be released at its usual time on Saturday (NZT) due to the shutdown delays. It will now come next Thursday, February 12 (NZT).
Meanwhile the ISM services sector PMI stayed in relatively good shape in January, although December was revised lower. New order growth slowed however, and price increases, pushed by tariff-taxes, rose.
This is not translating into consumers buying cars at a higher rate. In fact, in January the annualised rate was only 14.9 mln vehicles, the slowest month since December 2022, and -4.1% lower than in January 2025.
In China, and unlike the official January services PMI which was more negative, the private S&P Global version is more positive. The RatingDog China General Services PMI rose in January to a better expansion, from December’s six-month low and better than market expectations. It's the strongest expansion in their services sector since October, driven by stronger growth in new orders, and a fresh increase in foreign sales.
Meanwhile China said its fiscal revenue fell in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic. Sharp falls in non-tax takings outweighed a modest recovery in tax revenue.
In Europe, the surging value of the euro helped push down their January CPI inflation level to 1.7%. Food, however, was up 2.7%.
Australia released some living cost indexes yesterday, following the overall 3.8% December CPI. They say living costs for 'employees' rose just +2.2% in the year to January, but for 'aged pensioners' it was up +4.2%.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.27%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +71 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still at +34 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +59 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 2.26%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.84%, down -1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.59%, down -4 bps.
Wall Street has started its Wednesday weaker with the S&P500 down -1.0% on tech sector pullbacks. Overnight European markets closed mixed between Frankfurt's -0.5% and Paris's +1.0%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Wednesday session up another +1.0%. Hong Kong was unchanged but Shanghai rose +0.8%. Singapore up +0.4%. The ASX200 rose +0.8%. But the NZX50 only managed a +0.3% gain.
The price of gold will start today down -US$120 from yesterday at US$4860/oz. Silver is down -US$1 to US$85.50/oz. Some non-precious metals are lower too.
American oil prices are up a bit less than +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 59.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -40 bps at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.6, and down -50 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,550 and down another -3.3% from this time yesterday, and falling. The last time it was this low was in November 2024. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.
Please note that it is a public holiday in New Zealand on Friday, Waitangi Day. This update will not be published on Friday, but will return for the weekend edition on Saturday.
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13 Comments
Before anyone blames a person/party/ideology for Wellingtons sewerage failure...
This is entropy, fully predicted, fully predictable, and a presage of more - ever more - to come.
Seems we won't be debating it, though; blaming and pretending seems to be the preferred approach (as expressed by Sir Ian Taylor agreeing to debate Shane Jones - two speakers on one side, none on the other)
But GROWTH is all there is, eh?
Decay seems not to figure in the ledger...
Every civilisation has been built on the rubble and detritus of the one before which inevitably collapsed because of the hubris of it's leaders. Even Rome, the "greatest of all the empires" (according to them) fell under the weight of their own corruption. As the demand for growth persists, the politicians neglect the existing to protect their own power and privilege by delivering to the powerful what they demand. That this exposes the house of cards they are building is denied, obfuscated, and hidden. In this way they avoid the really important but too hard issues. Buried within all that they seek to prevent being questioned and challenged about their neglect. The current method is by trying to extend the electoral term.
My general conclusion is that the nature of larger civilisations' trend to become hierarchical power structures runs counter to the innate human proclivity to be a social animal. Hence they can't sustain.
I was doing voluntary predator control in the Te Kopahau regional park yesterday, also covering part of the south coast clifftops. The birds eye view showed the massive pollution streaming west from Moa point running right through the marine reserve towards Karori Light & Cook strait.
My guess is that the root cause will be basic human error.
Of course it will.
Try starting from a clen mental sheet - no pre-bias.
Then read my post above, then this:
Surplus Energy Economics | The home of the SEEDS economic model – Tim Morgan
BTW - your activity is a band-aid on a cancer; I was once a conservationist, still am and still do predator control - but now I understand we can never 'win'. Proof being we haven't. So someone has to say "what next?"
Sounds like a stink day of work
Our climate leadership is really paying off.
"China commissioned in 2025 the most coal-fired power stations in a decade. (~78 GW of new coal capacity, equal to twice the UK total electricity demand) On top, Chinese companies filled a record high number of proposals to build future coal plants."
Always reminded, when considering the pollution being belched out by the great powers versus the local outcry that NZ mustn’t emit the tiniest burp in comparison, of my father’s quote learn’t from the WW2 US Marines in the Pacific that it’s as much use as farting against thunder. That expression actually originated from US Sherman tank crews in Europe when coming up against a German Tiger tank. In summary there is very little, little New Zealand itself can do about it except set itself up as best as possible to cope with what the great powers are progressively creating.
And therein lies the basis of my argument that instead of virtue signalling, we should see and use the opportunity to rebuild our national resilience, but doing it in ways that are environmentally sound, to build a self sufficient future as much as is possible for Kiwis.
Perhaps our greatest advantage is being as far away as is possible from the mess the rest of the world is making.
Absolutely agree.
And just pointing out, as always, the fatal flaw in anything Profile-issued - Much of the burn happening in China, is to create goods for the rest of the world. That's OUR pollution.
And ironically, it's all temporary...
But didn't the Sherman's side eventually win?
I'm with the farts ( and Murray) on this.
True, sheer numbers helped in the end but more interestingly the Brits came to the rescue by equipping with their 17 pounder gun, thus the Firefly. For example one of those took out the Tiger ace Whitman. Same story with the P51 Mustang, replacing the Allison engine with British Merlin transformed it into the best WW2 fighter.
Per capita NZ still pumps more than Chiiina. The stats are from 2023 though so maybe Chiiina has finally caught up to little ol NZ.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emiss…
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