US expected inflation falls; US dollar weaker; Chinese ready for Spring Festival; Taiwan exports shine again; Australian household spending slips; UST 10yr at 4.20%; gold, silver & oil rise; NZ$1 = 60.5 USc; TWI-5 = 63.9

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news Taiwan's export prowess shows no signs of flagging.

But first, US inflation expectations fell to 3.1% in January, the lowest in six months, compared to 3.4% in December. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for petrol, and a slight easing in rent rises. But they still expect food prices to rise 5.7% over the next year.

The release of US labour market data, and their CPI update later in the week is where the focus is currently. And the US dollar is weak again, back near its post-pandemic low.

In China, their economy is gearing up for the Year of the Horse. China's Spring Festival holiday starts a week from today on February 17 and runs to March 3, 2026.

Taiwanese exports in January were spectacular yet again. They were up +70% year-on-year to an all-time high of US$66 bln in the month, following stunning +43% growth in the previous month. Analysts were expecting a +50% rise. It is a virtuous result with every category of their export trade rising. Exports to the US jumped +150%, and are now accounting for one third of their third export trade - about the same as it is to China.

Malaysia's industrial production rose +4.8% in December from a year ago, the sixth straight month it has expanded by more than +4%.

In Australia, household spending fell -0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. The only category that rose notably was alcohol sales. This follows rises of +1.0% in November and +1.4% in October. Household spending over the year remains high, up +5.0% in the year to December 2025.

The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.20%, and little-net change from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +72 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also unchanged at +31 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is holding at +52 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bps at just under 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 2.32% in the post-election reaction. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.85%, up +4 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.57%, unchanged from yesterday.

Wall Street has started its week with the S&P500 up +0.6% in its Monday trade with a bounce-back by tech stocks. Overnight, European markets were mixed between Frankfurt's +1.2% rise and London's +0.2% shift. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Monday up a strong +3.9% in its post-election gloa. Hong Kong was up +1.8%. Shanghai ended it +1.4%. Singapore closed up +0.5%. The ASX200 ended its Monday up +1.9%. But the best the NZX50 could do was end unchanged.

The price of gold will start today up +US$107 from yesterday at US$5073/oz. Silver is up a sharp +US$5.50 at US$83.50/oz after recovering from a 2026 low.

American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$64.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just under 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c at 85.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 63.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,013 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.

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