Canada housing starts weak; Japan GDP expansion minor; Singapore exports rise but less than expected; India's gold appetite jumps; EU factories dip; UST 10yr at 4.04%; gold softish and oil stable; NZ$1 = 60.3 USc; TWI-5 = 63.8

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the world away from the two economic superpowers is moving along at a varying pace.

[Please note, there will be no Economy Watch podcast today due to some equipment failure.]

But first we need to note that the two largest global economies are on holiday today, so updates from them are sparce.

In China, they said that there were 286 mln internal regional trips on Sunday, the first day of their Spring Festival holiday, and that was more than +10% higher than year-ago levels. That is a positive sign for their holiday spending period.

And in the US, fund managers are using the break to set bearish positions against the USD, raising short positions significantly.

In Canada, they reported that housing starts retreated by -15% in January from December to a annualised rate of 238,049, sharply lower than the expected 263,300. In fact, it was their lowest rate in five months.

In Japan, they said their economic activity grew just +0.1% in Q4-2025 from the prior quarter, but Q3 dropped -0.7% from Q2-2025. They had expected a +0.4% recovery. That left them +1.1% ahead in real terms for all of calendar 2025.

In Singapore, and driven by their electronics industry, exports (NODX) rose +9.3% in January from a year ago, faster than the +6.1% rise in December. However this good result was less than the expected +13.5% rise. The latest figure is their fifth straight month of good export gains. There were big gains to China, the EU, South Korea and Taiwan, but exports to the US almost halved.

India’s trade deficit surged to -US$35 bln in January on surging gold imports. Markets had expected a -US$26 bln deficit, only slightly more than a year ago. It was their largest single month deficit since October's record -US$42 bln. Exports held at year ago levels, but the twist were those huge precious metals imports.

In Europe, industrial production fell in December from November, mainly on lower output of capital goods. The dip came after three consecutive expansion months, leaving it up +1.4% year-on-year. And for all of 2025, it was up +1.5%.

The UST 10yr yield is still just under 4.04%, down -2 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is flatter at +63 bps (-2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is holding at just under +18 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is essentially still at +36 bps (up +1 bp). The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at just on 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 2.23%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.72%, down -3 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.47%, down -3 bps from yesterday.

Wall Street is closed today for the Washington's Birthday holiday. Overnight, European markets were mixed between London's +0.6% rise and Frankfurt's -0.4% dip. Yesterday Tokyo closed down -0.2%. Hong Kong only traded half a day, ending up +0.5%. Shanghai was closed to start its holiday. Singapore ended unchanged. The ASX200 ended its Monday trade up +0.2%. But the NZX50 ended down -0.6%.

The price of gold will start today down -US$49 from yesterday at US$4992/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at US$76.50/oz today.

American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just under US$63.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still under US$68.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer again against the USD from yesterday, now just on 60.3 USc and down -10 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down 10 bps at 85.3 AUc. We are marginally firmer against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed from yesterday, still at 63.8.

The bitcoin price starts today at UD$67,839 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.9%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».