Dairy prices rise again; US data net positive; Fed speakers have varying outlooks; Canadian inflation easing; Japan debt servicing problem; RBA worries about inflation; UST 10yr at 4.05%; gold falls and oil lower; NZ$1 = 60.3 USc; TWI-5 = 63.8

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news global bond yields have eased notably overnight in many economies, as inflation concerns eased somewhat. Although not in the US.

[Please note, there will be no Economy Watch podcast again today due to some equipment failure.]

First up today, the overnight dairy auction brought another good rise, the fourth in a row, up +3.6% in USD terms this time, up almost +4% in NZ terms. Both SMP (+3.0%) and WMP (+2.5%) posted good gains again. But the star the show today was the +10.7% rise for the butter price. This result probably won't change any farmgate payout forecasts, but it will solidify current levels.

In the US, the ADP weekly employment report came in with a +10,250 jobs gain last week.

And the latest NY Fed survey of New York manufacturing businesses confirms that with a good rise.

However, their house builder are less upbeat. Persistent affordability challenges, including high housing price-to-income ratios and elevated land and construction costs, helped push builder confidence lower for the second straight month to start the year.

Meanwhile, there were two Fed speakers out overnight, with differing views. The Chicago Fed boss indicated that rates cuts are likely if US inflation keeps on tracking lower. But another senior Fed spokesperson said rates are likely on hold for the foreseeable future.

Across the border, Canadian inflation seems to be easing, down to 2.3% in January from a year ago. The easing is due to lower gas energy prices.

In Japan, new official forecasts show Japan's debt-servicing costs could take up 30% of their budget in 3 years, with interest payments reaching NZ$450 bln in fiscal 2029.

The release of the RBA minutes of its February 3, 2026 meeting shows them concerned that inflation is not beaten, and that their policies are not currently restrictive enough to weigh against those risks.

The UST 10yr yield is still just under 4.05%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is flatter at +62 bps (-1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is holding at just under +16 bps (-2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is essentially still at +36 bps (unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at just on 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -9 bps at 2.14%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.69%, down another -3 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.45%, down -2 bps from yesterday.

Wall Street is back after its long weekend holiday and is -0.3% softer today. Overnight, European markets were firmer between London and Frankfurt's +0.8% rise and Paris's +0.5%. Yesterday Tokyo closed down -0.4%. Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore were all on holiday for CNY. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday trade up +0.2%. But the NZX50 ended down -0.7%.

The price of gold will start today down -US$134 from yesterday at US$4858/oz. Silver is down -US$4 at US$72.50/oz today.

American oil prices are down -US$1.50r at just under US$62/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at US$67/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD from yesterday, now just on 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 85.3 AUc. We are marginally firmer against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged as well at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed from yesterday, still at 63.8.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,530 and down -0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.8%.

Join us at 2pm today for the RBNZ's OCR review, Governor Dr Anna Breman's first.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».