Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that the US Supreme Court has rejected Trump's sweeping global tariffs in 6-3 decision, ruling that he exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. That likely means he will have to refund US$175 bln collected so far.
Financial market reactions have been surprisingly tame so far. This is probably because those paying these tariff-taxes are American companies, the ones who will get these refunds.
Trump then imposed a new 10% across the board tariff on all imports, which will likely bring fresh legal challenges. And conflict with Iran now seems more likely as tariff and Epstein distractions. Oil price are rising. Other, as yet unexpected distractions are possible too.
The US Q4-2025 GDP advanced estimate came in at an annual expansion rate of +1.4%, far less than the Q3-2025 rate of +4.4% and more than half the expected level. That makes the 2025 GDP rise as +2.2%.
Sales of new single-family houses in the US in December were at the annual rate of 745,000, -1.7% lower than the November rate by up +3.8% from the December 2024 level. This is higher than most months since 2023, but well below the 1 mln ln rate in 2020.
The latest factory PMI for the US, the S&P Global version, reports the slowest business growth for ten months in February amid weak demand, high prices and bad weather.
American consumer sentiment has stagnated in February with very little change from January to remain -12.5% lower than year-ago levels and remain hovering around its 20 year lows as recorded by the long-running University of Michigan survey. Inflation expectations also remained 'stable' at 3.3%.
Meanwhile, the PCE inflation result for December came in at 2.9%, marginally above the Q3 level. That is the highest level since October 2023. Consumer disposable incomes rose +0.9% for the year while personal consumption expenditure rose +1.7% for the year. So it is no wonder households feel under pressure, generally.
In Canada they reported a big surge in producer prices, up +5.4% in January, and well above the expected +4.4%.
Canada also reported December retail sales overnight and they fell -0.4% to C$70 bln. Sales were down in three of nine subsectors, led by decreases in vehicle sales. But on a volume basis, things were unchanged. For all of 2025 retail sales rose +4.0% in value terms, up +2.3% in volumes terms
In China, the IMF has urged them to cut industrial subsidies and pivot quicker to consumption-led growth, warning its export-driven model is fueling global trade tensions and damaging others.
Japanese inflation reduced to 1.5% in January from 2.1% in December, the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation fell to a 15-month low to 3.9% vs 5.1% in December, reduced by the slowest rise in rice prices in 18 months.
Meanwhile the Japanese PMIs rose at their fastest pace since May 2023, and both their factory sector and their services sector expansion rates are rising. New orders rose faster, and prices rose as well but only modestly
In India, they reported an even faster pace of expansion but that is bringing even faster price rises and well above the recent levels. The Indian economy is clearly over-heating.
Malaysia’s exports soared almost +20% in January from a year ago, exceeding market forecasts of +14% pace and well above the +10% gain in December. This is three year high, driven by demand from China.
The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.10%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday, up a net +4 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is little-changed at +61 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at just on +14 bps (-2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is holding at just on +40 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at just on 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 2.12% which is down -11 bps from a week ago. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.74%, unchanged from yesterday, up +3 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.37%, down -5 bps from yesterday but down -13 bps for the week.
Wall Street is firmer with the S&P500 closing up +0.7% today. For the week, it is up a net +1.1%. Overnight, European markets were all higher between London's +0.6% and Paris's +1.4%. Yesterday Tokyo closed down -1.1% for a net weekly loss of -0.7%. Hong Kong was also down 1.1% for a -3.1% net weekly loss. Shanghai remained closed but will return on Monday. Singapore fell -1.3% and gave up Thursday big gain. The ASX200 ended its Friday trade down -0.1% for a +1.5% weekly rise. And the NZX50 ended down -1.0%, giving up part of its Thursday rise but still ending up +0.8% for the week.
The Fear and Greed Index is still in the 'fear' zone, the same as last week's position - and the week before that.
The price of gold will start today up +US$68 from yesterday at US$5073/oz. Silver is up +US$5.50 at US$83/oz today. This time last week, the gold price was US$5020/pz and the silver price was US$78/oz. Platinum has also moved up sharply overnight.
American oil prices are holding at just under US$66.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just over US$71.50/bbl. But both are up +6% from this time last week
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from yesterday, now just on 59.7 USc. But that is down -80 bps from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 84.4 AUc. We are little-changed against the yen. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -20 bps from yesterday, now just under 63.2. A week ago that was at 63.9, so a -70 bps fall, or -1.1%
The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,581 and up +1.7% from this time yesterday. But it is down -2.2% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just over +/- 1.4%.
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7 Comments
Trump’s been Trumped. What a sad state the US is in, it’s hardly great again. The UK is equally terrible I’ve been told.
Makes me happy to live in NZ.
The important feature is that this judgement establishes that the power of a presidential executive order is not only not unquestionable but also not unlimited. That at least restores some credibility and dignity to the constitution and the well crafted intentions of the founding fathers. One of the dissenting judges ruled that the president had alternative statutes to avail to the same effect. If that is so that in the first place, would obviously have been the correct passage for implementing the tariffs and the fact that it wasn’t suggests both laziness and arrogance by the sitting President.
What is the point in having two houses of government if the president can do whatever they feel like?
I suspect the writers of the US constitution didnt expect that partisanship would completely override sanity in the houses of representatives.
When it was formed, someone with Trump's disposition wouldn't last very long. Now you just have to have the resources for a good lawyer.
Under emergency circumstances it's sometimes necessary to have central command.
Which is how Trump has tried to shoehorn a bunch of his policies. Declare emergency, rush out things like tarrifs.
President Roosevelt signed a couple of thousand executive orders during his three and a bit terms. Of course with WW2 raging, that was rather a different time. Here the Supreme Court has put up a give way sign, not a compulsory stop but it does though, establish a line of reckoning and especially so if the Republicans lose the majorities in either or both houses in the mid terms.
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