Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has raised its floating rate by +10 bps in an out-of-cycle move. More here. Heretaunga Building Society raised one fixed rate. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised its On-call savings account rate to 1.50%. Heretaunga Building Society raised its 2 year TD rate to 4.00%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MOVING UP
Retail spending came in a bit better than most were expecting for Q4-2025 and that was on an inflation-adjusted basis too. Volume gains were +0.9%, which will be positive for Q4-2025 GDP. Good rises in decretionary spending drove the result.
TAKE A BREAK, DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NEW PENALTIES
Stats NZ is planning to introduce an infringement scheme (fees and fines) to support its mandatory requests for information. You can give feedback on these plans here.
ILLEGAL LOANS
Ilaisaane Malupo, trading as Nane Easy Loan Finance Services NZ (Nane Loans), has admitted providing personal loans illegally to members of the Tongan community in South Auckland. Ms Malupo failed to keep accurate records, and destroyed others, meaning we do not have the details of all affected borrowers, the Commerce Commission says, so they are appealing to borrowers to contact them. However, there may not be sufficient funds to reimburse borrowesr for their losses.
SPENDING ON CARDS
Domestic billings on credit cards were up +2.7% in January from a year ago, but overseas billings rose +7.6% on the same basis.
NZX50 UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today and now meandering. But that still puts it up +1.9% over the past five working days. It is up +2.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +5.3% so far today on a very positive profit forecast, and investor speculation that the Trump tariff mess will assist them. F&P Healthcare, Tourism Holdings, Chorus and Gentrack lead today’s NZX50 gains, while Channel Infrastructure, Mainfreight, Kathmandu and Summerset weigh on the index
MAINTAINING ITS CONTROLLING INTEREST
The Government said today it will buy up to $200 million of new Genesis Energy shares, which makes sure the Crown retains 51% of energy gentailer. Details of the full Genesis $400 mln rights offer are here.
PAMU AIMS FOR $100 MLN
State-owned farmer Pāmu/Landcorp is forecasting full-year net operating profit to land between $97 million and $107 million, an increase on the November 2025 forecast of $80 to $90 million. This is more than double the company’s previous FY25 record of $49 million net operating profit. Higher dairy prices, higher production, and "productivity" has caused the improvement.
FITTING BACK IN AT THE TOP
Departed IAG-NZ CEO Amanda Whiting has had a new role made for her at their Sydney head office, "IAG has announced Amanda Whiting will take on a newly created role on the Group Leadership Team as Group Executive, Enterprise Growth and Simplification".
INDUSTRY TRIES TO END-RUN A REGULATOR
Staying in Australia, stamp duty is in the cross hairs of big investors and both the Property Council and Association of Superannuation Funds are lobbying hard to get it exempted from their projects. They don't like the enforcement activity of ASIC for spoiling their plans for a carveout.
US TARIFF MESS FALLOUT
Trump acting illegally is causing early-week fallout that seems to be spreading, but not big so far. The USD is lower. Benchmark bond yields are higher higher but volatile, and the futures markets suggest the S&P500 will open lower (-0.4%). Gold is up (+0.9%) and silver is up +5.8%. To be honest, this is less than you may have thought.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.49% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.72%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.10 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.40%, up +3 bps from this morning. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Friday's rate down -5 bps at 4.34%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from this morning, now just on 4.08%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has gained in Monday trade, up +0.5% so far. However, the ASX200 is down by -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.1% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +2.3% but Shanghai is still closed for the CNY holiday. Back tomorrow. Singapore is up +0.2%. Wall Street is down -0.5% in its futures trade.
OIL EASES
American oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$66/bbl, while the international Brent price is over US$72/bbl.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been very few trades again today on the secondary market and now at $43/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this morning, up +US50/oz and now at US$5106/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 at just under US$87/oz.
NZD UP AGAINST THE USD
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this morning against the USD, now at just on 60 USc in a challenging time for the greenback. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 84.6 AUc. Against the euro we unhanged at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.3 and up +10 bps from this morning.
BITCOIN FALLS HARD
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,416 and down a sharp -4.7% from this morning's open. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.
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9 Comments
Gold is up (+0.9%) and silver is up +5.8%. To be honest, this is less than you may have thought.
Futures. China PM mkts closed today (and Japan FWIW).
Silver proxy ETPMAG up 10.8% and PMGOLD up 2.7% on the ASX. GDX humming up 3.5%.
Aussie silver stocks on fire: Bpah, Unico, Andean, Sun. All up 10%+.
FITTING BACK IN AT THE TOP
Departed IAG-NZ CEO Amanda Whiting has had a new role made for her at their Sydney head office, "IAG has announced Amanda Whiting will take on a newly created role on the Group Leadership Team as Group Executive, Enterprise Growth and Simplification".
"IAG finds new ways to justify premium increases by adding in a spurious new role which has simplification as an aspect that conflicts with the creation of the new role."
BTC plummets and they all plough it into the REAL Gold. Yes that is yellow shiny rock.
Ratty savaged. 6 weeks ago I put a low bid on a BTC Treasury company stock - 30% below spot price. Online broker refused my bid offer. Too low I guess. First time that's ever happened to me.
As of today, the same stock is 25% lower than my bid price. Stock price down 75% in 7 months.
Will consider again when it's down 95%+.
The only issue with those orders is if you using margins they can flash crash you into a forced close
If you're speaking to me, this was not options. IMO, even if you detest/love BTC, trading rat poison is for losers.
But here's something interesting: Managed money longs in the Comex silver contract are the lowest for 20 years, even below levels seen in 2008! Nobody wants to play in the Comex Casino anymore. Dead man walking that can't deliver on it's promises.
BTC is much more of a reason to make popcorn. In fact it might be at zero before it’s even popped.
I think that if you went to your neighborhood BBQ and offered people a choice of 1 BTC or 100 Kiwi pesos or a box of Whittakers chocolate, many would take the pesos or chocolate.
You have any prices on that offer?
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