Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB lowered all its fixed rates from 2 to 5 years today. TSB's 4.39% one year rate remains a market leader. Kainga Ora raised all its rates, including it floating rate (by +10 bps). All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. But it is probably worth noting that Kiwi Bond rates haven't changed since October 16, 2025. In those 4+ months the six month and 12 month wholesale rates have changed little, but the 2 and 4 year wholesale rates have risen more than +25 bps. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
STRONG LEVEL OF BUILDING CONSENTS ISSUED
Residential building consents were up +14.8% in January compared to January last year with the residential building industry making a strong start to 2026. (If these housing units get built, it is a good sign for housing affordability. A rapidly expanding stock of houses at the same time as weak-to-no demographic pressures (low birth rate and low immigration) can only mean lower prices for newer dwellings.)
QUARTERLY TRACKING UPDATED
Update: We have updated our quarterly residential building consent tracking to December 2025, which you can find here. There are some notable trends in these.
NON-RES CONSENTS HANG IN THERE
Meanwhile, non-residential building had a steady start to 2026, with the value of consents in January up +4.5% from a year earlier.
NEW CAR SALES RISE MODESTLY
In February, there were 7138 new cars sold, +2.0% more than in the same month a year ago. The share that were SUV's exceeded 82% again. Hybrids and EVs accounted for less than half for the first time since May 2025 with a small resurgence in ICE vehicle sales. Of note is the doubling (to 674) of sales to rental car fleets, year-on-year. Used imports have stayed at their lowish level, 6956 in February, a level they have been at broadly since late 2024.
COMPARING BANKS
The RBNZ Dashboard for the December 2025 quarter has been released. This allows comparison by bank of their financial results and market shares, which we will analyse and report on over the next few days. Our our Key Bank Metric tool that is powered by this data is here (and updated now).
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today. That leaves it up +0.6% over the past five working days, up +4.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.7% so far today. Tourism Holdings, Vista, Hallensteins and Fletcher lead the NZX50 gains while Vulcan Steel, Auckland Airport, Argosy Property and Infratil are the main decliners.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE GDT DAIRY AUCTION
There is another full dairy auction tomorrow, but the new sudden geopolitical backdrop may play a part - especially with shipping costs. Will the buyer or seller bear these via a price adjustment? The butter price jumped from the last full auction to the intermediate Pulse auction. But derivates market pricing suggests it will fall back again. SMP rose between those two prior events and the derivatives market suggests another good rise tomorrow. But the dominant WMP fell marginally from the auction two weeks ago to the Pulse event a week ago. And derivatives pricing suggests another, larger fall.
LESS HOUSING SUPPLY COMING
In Australia, total residential building consents fell at a -7.2% rate in January, following a -30.7% drop in December. Year on year it is down -15.7%, the largest fall since late 2023. This may have ended the rising trend of approvals that started in July 2024. But there were 9,900 detached houses approved for construction nationally, a 41 month high. The big shortfall is in intensive housing.
LARGER CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
Australia’s current account balance fell by -AU$2.8 bln in December 2025 to a deficit of -AU$21.1 bln. This is its second consecutive fall, driven by a net primary income deficit widening. This will take -0.1 percentage points from the December 2025 GDP result which will be released tomorrow.
HARD TO FIGHT INFLATION WHEN THE WORLD IS AFLAME
In public comments today, the RBA governor acknowledged the sudden increase in uncertainty in the global economy, on top of already high uncertainty from Trump's abandonment of an international rules-based order. She said "a supply shock could, for example, add to inflation pressures. And the potential implications for inflation expectations are something we are very alert to. But at the same time, a prolonged impact on energy markets could have adverse effects on global economic activity and result in downward pressure on inflation. It is not obvious how this might play out." Westpac says Brent crude at US$100 is entirely possible in the coming few weeks.
SWAP RATES UP
Wholesale swap rates are probably rising today as risk premiums rise. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.49% on Monday and has been like this for ten days straight. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +10 bps at 4.75% in risk signals. The China 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 1.79%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.12% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.43%, up +7 bps from Monday with the same risk-cost rise as in Australia. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday rate up +2 bps at 4.35%. The UST 10yr yield is up +8 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.04%. All eyes remain on the US credit spreads which are rising on top of this.
EQUITIES MIXED BUT NOT CRASHING
The local equity market has dipped -0.2% in Tuesday trade. But the ASX200 is down -1.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has started its week down another -1.4% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down a lesser -0.4% mirrored by Shanghai . Singapore has bounced back +1.0%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 unchanged.
OIL RISES AGAIN
American oil prices are up another +$2.50 at just under US$72/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades today on the secondary market, and the price is unchanged at $47/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS, SILVER EASES
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this time yesterday, up +US$13/oz and now at US$5341/oz and almost back to its January 29 record high. Silver is down -US$5 at just under US$88/oz.
NZD FALLS
The Kiwi dollar is down just -40 bps from this this time yesterday against the USD, now at just under 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -60 bps at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 63 and down -40 bps from this morning.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$68,725 and up +3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high, at +/- 3.2%.
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22 Comments
"...Trumps abandonment of an International rules based order..."
Apparently Trump only went to war because Netanyahu said he would - thereby creating the "imminent threat". Orwellian doublespeak.
"WASHINGTON: The United States attacked Iran only after learning that ally Israel was going to strike and fearing Tehran would retaliate against US forces, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday (Mar 2).
Asked if the US faced an imminent threat from Iran - a key threshold in the US as Congress constitutionally has the power to declare war - Rubio again pointed to the Israeli plans.
"There absolutely was an imminent threat, and the imminent threat was that we knew that if Iran was attacked - and we believed they would be attacked - that they would immediately come after us," Rubio said.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/marco-rubio-us-attack-iran-israel…
Spin that would do a left arm un-orthodox bowler proud. War words are easy. Such as Putin hardly even bother to think about what they say. Starting it is the easy part. The Iranian regime will remain in power while the sharp end of their military remain intact and loyal. It has been long and well organised that any uprising by the people would be unable to sufficiently arm itself. Iran though has made a mistake. There is no love from the Saudi side and Yemen remains to be sorted between the two. The present Syrian power holders were previously on the receiving end of much Iranian aggression. Therefore neighbouring Arabic nations, now being bombarded by Iran, may yet turn and go on the offensive. Don’t think any nation has ever been forced into submission by purely conventional aerial assault and again it may suit those neighbours to now intervene on the ground and try and get it over with as obviously the halt of trade and commerce financially hurts all and sundry.
Well that's direct proof that it doesn't meet the threshold for imminent threat. If you can't say exactly what the threat was to your country, then you can't deduce that the threat was imminent. The justification doesn't even start to hold water. Therefore the action is illegal in international law and those responsible can be considered for war crimes (not that the US cares one whit for the ICC rulings).
With this sort of justification, you could get your ally to attack anyone, claiming imminent threats because your ally is doing it. "Israel has decided to attack New Zealand, therefore we have to also attack NZ as they will retaliate against us for not holding Israel back". It's absolute nonsense. "My friend and I were out walking and he said he was going to punch a guy in the face, so I shot and killed that guy because his retribution would have been an imminent threat to my safety." See how that holds up in the court of law?
your evening homework: the bigger picture (and why the two recent attacks by the failing hegemon):
The Limits to the Energy Transition: What Physics Means for New Zealand’s Economy - Whitepaper
The writer and I are fellow travellers in an intellectual sense. Not that I coined my pen-name here, 20 years ago. That knowledge has been on this site, that long.
Interesting what people need to believe and peddle, and why.
"The physics is not negotiable. Our response to the physics is."
This...but we are too self absorbed to realise it.
Well by that analysis the USA joins Russia as instigators of warfare, illegal under international law. China’s turn next then?
Also, by the way, Israel already has nukes. It's amazing how often the media introduce the threat of Iran developing nukes, but don't mention 'proliferation' in the region. Just willfully ignore Israel's nukes.
UAE banks have become materially more cautious on outbound transfers that could be frozen or delayed by foreign counterparties since the strikes on Iran and Iran’s regional retaliation, because the conflict has sharply raised sanctions, compliance, and operational risk around Gulf cross‑border flows.
The war threatens both Dubai’s emergence as a hedge-fund hub and Abu Dhabi’s expansion as a sovereign-wealth powerhouse - built on a reputation for stability that drew capital during the Arab Spring, the pandemic and the post-Ukraine influx of wealth.
That carefully cultivated “safety premium” is now being dented. Some executives told Bloomberg News that the pace of people coming in could slow if instability persists, with contingency plans like relocation options already being discussed.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/hedge-funds-banks-rethink-prese…
A rapidly expanding stock of houses at the same time as weak-to-no demographic pressures (low birth rate and low immigration) can only mean lower prices for newer dwellings.)
Yes but how long is ramping up the building of more residential sustainable under the current scenario.
What will all the tradies do if they aren't building houses?
What will all the tradies do if they aren't building houses?
We could have the equivalent of a 12-18 month national service for young people where they're required to build low-cost housing and other public amenities.
Most people would scoff at the idea. But tough times call for tough measures. But I understand it would sound too much like boot camp for Aotearoans.
What will all the tradies do if they aren't building houses?
Nothing we can’t get a profit out of it.
Just as well everyone is distracted by war because there is a snowball rolling and getting bigger in the West's private credit Ponzi. Liquidity in credit doesn’t matter until it does. Financial reflexivity at work.
Blackstone's flagship private credit fund, BCRED (valued at $82 billion), faced significant investor redemptions in Q1 2026, with requests totaling 7.9% of holdings or about $3.7 billion. New commitments were only $2 billion, resulting in net outflows of $1.7 billion, amid intensifying strains in the private credit industry.
Water cooler buddy sniped back when I bought this up and reckons pvte credit funds are irrelevant in the greater scheme of things in Aotearoa and Aussie.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/blackstone-allows-in…
NZ has 'healthy stock levels' of fuel - MBIE...
"Customers can continue to fill up as normal at any Z station across the country," a spokesperson said."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/588521/nz-has-healthy-stock-levels-…
That explains the widespread overnight 15% price increase //
Perhaps now opportune to enquire of ex PM Ardern regarding the condition of all those fleeces that her government’s enquiry found?
Our so-called strategic reserve, last time I looked, was in Singapore. On paper. Redeemable tickets - the same nonsense as money, ultimately.
Yeah, right. You can bank on that.
And as for diesel actually here? Ex panic-buying, I'm guessing 20 days.
Fertiliser? Jet fuel? Petrol?
Add panic-buying and it's all over (for diesel and petrol, at least) in a few days.
I believe our strategic reserve of fuel resides in Australia....if they will release it. The current 24 days onshore includes fuel on water that can potentially be recalled.
Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: Support for National drops to lowest in six months, just ahead of Labour
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10141-nz-national-voting-intention-f…
Will Luxon survive i suggest he may fall on sword to Chris Bishop or Mark Mitchel sp? names
Bishop might be doing too much to be electable.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/what-you-need-to-know/587993/why-betting-on-…
as a betting man with starlink and a vpn I scratch my head at the stupidity of this, also have offshore bank accounts and credit cards.
VPN and ETH / SOL. Regret not back up the truck with Solana in 2022 when it was close to USD10. Would be full-time on Polymarket if I had.
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