Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Gold Band Finance raised their rates for terms 1-5 years. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
ON THE UP
Westpac's monitoring of the card activity of its customers shows retail spending has continued to climb, including a lift in discretionary spending. Notably, the lift in spending has been seen right across the country, they say.
A NINE PERCENT INCREASE IS 'LOW'
Data out today from StatsNZ shows that rates and regulatory income rose +9.0% in the December 2025 quarter from the same period in 2024. This is the smallesy year-on-year rise for any quarter since December 2023 (when it was +8.9%).
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.8% so far today. That leaves it down -1.6% over the past five working days, but up +1.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.7% so far today. Vulcan Steel, NZX, Tourism Holdings and Vital Healthcare Property lead gains while Air New Zealand, Mainfreight, Sanford and Auckland Airport headline losses.
SHAREHOLDERS GET THEIR FUNDS ON APRIL 14
Update: Fonterra today confirmed that the agreement to sell its global consumer and associated businesses, Mainland Group to Lactalis for $4.22 billion is now unconditional. All required regulatory approvals have been received and the separation of Mainland Group from Fonterra is complete. Fonterra said it expects the record date to be eligible for the capital return to be 9 April 2026 and the payment date to be 14 April 2026, based off the transaction completing at the end of March 2026.
WAR IMPACTS I
We will summarise how the US/Israel/Iran war will impact the New Zealand economy here, as each now development reveals itself (other than for oil, which is dealt with lower.). Today Rabobank says fertiliser costs and market access issues have potential impact our rural economy. They note in 2025 disruptions to energy and urea supply were short-lived as that war ended within 12 days. The impact on prices this time will depend how severe fertiliser and energy exports from the region will prove to be. Urea prices have risen +50% so far in 2025, half of that in the past week.
WAR IMPACTS II
You can keep track of global flight cancellation levels here. When we looked (today) there had been 16,200 flight delays, and 2500 cancellations. Tracking ships is here.
WAR IMPACTS III
Local truckies are warning that freight costs are about to go up, thanks to the Don. Diesel price rose by 44 cents per litre today and they say "we will see more increases as supply chains are impacted".
CHINA'S NEW GOALS
China's 2026-2031 goals were set out today (page 18) and for 2026 they are "1. GDP growth of 4.5–5 percent, while striving for better in practice. 2. surveyed urban unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent. 3. over 12 million new urban jobs. 4. CPI increase of around 2 percent. 5. personal income growth in step with economic growth. 6. a basic equilibrium in the balance of payments. 7. grain output of around 700 million metric tons. 8. a reduction of around 3.8 percent in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP. It is worth noting that this is growth of 4.5% and a -3.8% reduction in CO2 emissions. So that means China will be increasing its emissions by at least +0.7% - in one year. Their Five Year Plan is here.
LIFE THREATENING CHANGES
In Australia, fierce competition for household deposits has seen some one year term deposit rates rise to just a touch under 5%. (4.95% and 4.90%.) This is being driven by fears across competitors who are watching Macquarie hoover up massive amounts of deposits from their rivals. AMP Go's one year rate is now 4.95%. AMP's household deposits are now down to just AU$9.0 bln, after peaking at at AU$10.6 bln in mid-2023. They are just one example of challenger banks being shocked by Macquarie. In the same time, Macquarie has gone from AU$56.0 bln to now at AU103.2 bln. So it is no wonder challenger banks like AMP have to offer savers fat premiums. And sadly for them, even this isn't enough to stem the bleeding. Details here.
SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are probably rising again today as risk premiums rise again, and quite sharply, maybe to a six month high. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.48% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps at 4.86%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.79%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.16% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.51%, up +3 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Thursday rate up +5 bps at 4.45%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.14%. All eyes are still on the US credit spreads which are rising on top of this.
EQUITIES TURN DOWN AGAIN
The local equity market has fallen -0.9% in Friday trade. The ASX200 is down -1.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Friday down -0.6% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.7% and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down -0.4%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down -0.6%.
OIL RISES FURTHER
American oil prices are up another +$3 at just under US$77/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STABILISES
There have been many smaller trades today on the secondary market, and the price is up +$1 at $44/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold has dipped from this time yesterday, down -US$31/oz and now at US$5139/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at just over US$83.50/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this this time yesterday against the USD, now at just over 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 84.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.8 and down -10 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,256 and down -1.7% from this time yesterday but basically holding the recent jump. Volatility has been moderate, at +/- 2.1%.
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21 Comments
Imported butter from US now being sold at some of the mainstream supermarkets.
I wonder if pressure from Costco is to thank for this? Or maybe just exorbitant prices from the Fonterra crew
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/imported-us-butter-lands-in-paknsave-as-c…
NZ brands are 'premium', and with a weak currency we don't wish to pay that premium?
Does your cake turn out better with nz butter? Probably not.
Apparently with cakes and biscuits grain fed butter can be preferable because the taste of grass fed can overwhelm the other flavours. Anyway, that's what my wife says and she's always right
she's always right
the one constant in an ever changing world
Cakes taste better? It's probably the pus in the milk, the side effect of recombinant bovine somatotropin (rBST), an FDA approved synthetic hormone, used in the US to boost milk production.
Someone in our household saw cheap butter so grabbed a couple. Having not seen the brand, checked the back and packed in chch.
I saw it in the fridge. Bland, anemic, tasteless. We'll use it for baking but no way on bread toast potatoes etc. filthy.
"rates and regulatory income rose +9.0% in the December 2025 quarter"
I wonder if anyone has worked out the date this rate of exponential growth in local body fees will consume the entire economy?
9% is an 8 year doubling time. I figure all going well, I've got another 25 years in my current property? That's if I can afford the $80000 rates bill by then?
Our household currently pays around $4k a year in rates (pre GST) and $50k a year in income tax. We use council services on a daily basis, hardly ever use government ones. I suspect rates have a fair way to climb before they represent the true cost of council services.
Today for example:
- walked dog on council footpath to council park
- Drove on council provided roads
- put my bins away after council emptied them
- Rode on council provided cycleway
- used council water
- council got rid of my poos and wees
As for government:
- kids went to school
- I spent some fiat
Around $10000 for us, being a farm, some is tax deductible though.
"We use council services on a daily basis"
We don't use a lot of either Local or gov services. We don't have rubbish collection, dispose of our liquid own waste, no street lighting, we do have reticulated water and roading, but that's about it. OTOH our rates rise was 16.9% over the last twelve months, not 9%.
I'm sure with product prices being good, the local council will tweak those rating factors for the rural community and sqeeze a bit more juice out next budget.
You do realise that the state subsidises those council provided roads? And Im pretty sure the justice system is paid for by taxes (I assume you didnt appear in court today, but somebody did) ....you use every government service every day, either directly or indirectly.
ASX down $100B this week
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-06/asx-markets-business-live-news-m…
Interesting that the AFL kicked off y'day with Sydney Swans vs Carlton. I noticed advertising for IREN, the vertically integrated, renewable-powered data center business that operates both large-scale Bitcoin mining and high-performance AI cloud infrastructure.
IREN is not listed on the ASX; it is an Australian-incorporated company whose primary listing is on the Nasdaq. One of the best businesses to come of Aussie in past 2-3 yrs in terms of performance.
Interesting that they're paying for awareness at the AFL. Not sure why.
The new poster boy for the "middle way" for the progressive international law community for the liberal democracies Mark Carney has been brutally slammed by the Canadian media. The warning signs where there. Nobody paid attention.
As Lynn noted, “Over eight years at the Bank of England, Carney was at best an indifferent governor, and, at worse, a disappointing failure.“ Despite his huge salary of more than £600,000 a year, more than any of his predecessors had been paid, he seemed to have little feel for the role. The City quickly nick-named him ‘the unreliable boyfriend’ for his constant changes of direction on interest rates.”
By the time Carney left the central bank, he had “created a mess which his successors have struggled to clear up. Inflation spiked up to a peak of 11.1 per cent in the U.K., compared to 5.2 per cent in France or eight per cent in Italy, hardly a country known for controlling prices effectively, largely because the bank had printed too much money.”
Here’s the real kicker: “Carney is the epitome of a remote, globalized, technocratic elite. He is very good at self-promotion, at collecting trophy jobs and of course negotiating fabulously generous salaries and expenses for himself along the way. He is just not very good at delivering.”
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/britains-stern-warnings-about-mark-car…
Yup. If not for Trump scaring Canadian voters he would have suffered a big loss at the polls. And he didn't look attractive at all during the elections ,due to his history in the world of big banking.
Of as DJT would have put it, "Biggest loss ever they say. None bigger, but that's what you get when you're up against the greatest force in political history" and so on for another 90 minutes.
It's interesting that young Canadian males didn't vote for him as they saw as not improving their lot in terms of economic issues like cost of living. The boomers overwhelmingly voted for him as they believe he will protect their interests.
Aussie ... term deposit rates rise to just a touch under 5%
Link doesn't work for NZ readers.
Sorry, fixed now.
It should have been: https://www.interest.com.au/personal-finance/558/challenger-banks-are-s…
Most people will not understand how big the last 48 hours have been for crypto.
The Federal Reserve just gave Kraken access to its core payment rails - the same system used by JPMorgan and Goldman.
The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange just invested in OKX - a centralized cryptocurrency exchange and Web3 platform where users can trade digital assets and access related financial services - and joined its board. The most powerful financial infrastructure in the world is no longer attacking crypto. It’s integrating it.
For years Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a “fraud.” and Larry Fink dismissed crypto entirely, but they were loading up under on ratty <USD20K while telling the public differently. .
https://nationaltoday.com/us/ks/kansas-city-ks/news/2026/03/04/kraken-b…
1-5 year swaps look likely to break through recent highs next week.
Unless this trend turns around, banks will be raising mortgage rates again to balance their interest rate risk.
I have a plan...
We have a fertiliser shortage.
Wellington has an untreated sewerage problem...
Lets call it nightsoil, pump it into these pressurised LNG ships that will soon be visiting our shores....
and voila!
A bit stinky down SH1 but I reckon its got legs.
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