A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes but large fallbacks of wholesale rates, truckometer mildly positive, commercial lease market still negative, swaps revert, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STABILISING AT 7%
Updated MBIE data shows that the number of overseas worker numbers is stablising at around 200,000, following a period of high volatility. Given there are 2.9 mln people employed, that is 7% of our employed workforce.

TRENDING UP
ANZ's "truckometer" tracking shows that in February, the Light Traffic Index lifted +2.5% in February from January to be up +4.5% from a year ago, its strongest annual growth in three years. The Heavy Traffic Index rose +2.4% in the month, and is up a more modest +2.4% for the year with annual growth trending up.

STILL RISING
Mid-March commercial lease listings continue to rise, belying the 'greenshoots' messages. They are now at a record high 26,435, up +14% from this time last year (+3240). But they have turn below their record highs on Auckland's North Shore, Tauranga, and Dunedin.

TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 RECOVERS SLIGHTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today. That leaves it down -3.5% over the past five working days, and down -0.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.4% so far today. Serko, Precinct Properties, Napier Port, and Summerset lead a NZX50 rebound, Oceania, Mainfreight, Fletcher, and Meridian are the main decliners.

UPGRADED
Fitch Ratings has upgraded ASB Bank's Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'AA-' from 'A+'. The Outlook is Stable. This mirrors what it did with ASB's parent Commonwealth Bank in Australia. This mirrors the S&P Ratings levels. But Fitch still has ANZ, BNZ and Westpac at A+, Kiwibank at AA (based on assumed taxpayer support).

FIRMLY PESSIMISTIC
In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey showed consumers remain firmly pessimistic, although sentiment continues to show some resilience. Daily responses in their survey show a material weakening over the survey week. The results were less pessimism on current finances and attitudes towards major purchases. On the economy it reveals more unease near-term but less concern about the medium-term. Unemployment expectations pushed up above long-run average levels, led by the over-45s.

STEADY WITH HESITATION
Staying in Australia, the NAB business confidence survey found that business conditions were steady in February, but sentiment slipped, with confidence now in negative territory for the first time in almost a year, likely reflecting some caution in the ​wake of the February RBA rate hike. This survey didn't really pick up the more recent Middle East war effects because it was conducted from February ⁠23 ​to March 2 and so only ​caught the very beginning of the US-Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent spike ​in energy prices.

TACO AGAIN?
It has been a confusing day for markets trying to make sense of Trump's changing positions. Earlier ho said "the war [on Iran] will be over very soon" sending markets into relief more. Later he said he agreed with US War Secretary Hesketh that "we are just getting started". It seems to be a mistake for markets to gamble on anything he says.

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SWAP RATES FALL BACK SHARPLY
Wholesale swap rates are almost certainly falling today as risk premiums recede quickly on bewildering TACO sentiment. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.49% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -15 bps from this time yesterday at 4.85%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -6 bps at 2.16% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.60%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday rate up +19 bps at 4.68%. The UST 10yr yield is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.11%.

EQUITIES RECOVER ABOUT HALF YESTERDAY'S FALL
The local equity market has firmed +0.4% in Tuesday trade, so far. The ASX200 is up +1.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Tuesday up +3.3% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +1.5% and Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore is up +1.7%. Wall Street its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +0.8%.

OIL FALLS BACK
American oil prices have fallen back sharply with the WTI benchmark down -US$30, now at just under US$85/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88.50/bbl. These levels are suddenly back to March 7 levels but that embeds a rise of +US$28 from the start of 2026, or +50%.

CARBON PRICE SOFTISH
There have been few trades so far today on the secondary market, and the price is down -50c to $44.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this time yesterday, up +US$103/oz or +2% and now back at US$5173/oz. Silver is up a sharp +US$7 to US$89/oz.

NZD BACK IN FAVOUR
The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.8 and up +40 bps from where we were this time yesterday.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$69,309 and up +4.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate, at +/- 2.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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