Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
STABILISING AT 7%
Updated MBIE data shows that the number of overseas worker numbers is stablising at around 200,000, following a period of high volatility. Given there are 2.9 mln people employed, that is 7% of our employed workforce.
TRENDING UP
ANZ's "truckometer" tracking shows that in February, the Light Traffic Index lifted +2.5% in February from January to be up +4.5% from a year ago, its strongest annual growth in three years. The Heavy Traffic Index rose +2.4% in the month, and is up a more modest +2.4% for the year with annual growth trending up.
STILL RISING
Mid-March commercial lease listings continue to rise, belying the 'greenshoots' messages. They are now at a record high 26,435, up +14% from this time last year (+3240). But they have turn below their record highs on Auckland's North Shore, Tauranga, and Dunedin.
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 RECOVERS SLIGHTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today. That leaves it down -3.5% over the past five working days, and down -0.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.4% so far today. Serko, Precinct Properties, Napier Port, and Summerset lead a NZX50 rebound, Oceania, Mainfreight, Fletcher, and Meridian are the main decliners.
UPGRADED
Fitch Ratings has upgraded ASB Bank's Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'AA-' from 'A+'. The Outlook is Stable. This mirrors what it did with ASB's parent Commonwealth Bank in Australia. This mirrors the S&P Ratings levels. But Fitch still has ANZ, BNZ and Westpac at A+, Kiwibank at AA (based on assumed taxpayer support).
FIRMLY PESSIMISTIC
In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey showed consumers remain firmly pessimistic, although sentiment continues to show some resilience. Daily responses in their survey show a material weakening over the survey week. The results were less pessimism on current finances and attitudes towards major purchases. On the economy it reveals more unease near-term but less concern about the medium-term. Unemployment expectations pushed up above long-run average levels, led by the over-45s.
STEADY WITH HESITATION
Staying in Australia, the NAB business confidence survey found that business conditions were steady in February, but sentiment slipped, with confidence now in negative territory for the first time in almost a year, likely reflecting some caution in the wake of the February RBA rate hike. This survey didn't really pick up the more recent Middle East war effects because it was conducted from February 23 to March 2 and so only caught the very beginning of the US-Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent spike in energy prices.
TACO AGAIN?
It has been a confusing day for markets trying to make sense of Trump's changing positions. Earlier ho said "the war [on Iran] will be over very soon" sending markets into relief more. Later he said he agreed with US War Secretary Hesketh that "we are just getting started". It seems to be a mistake for markets to gamble on anything he says.
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SWAP RATES FALL BACK SHARPLY
Wholesale swap rates are almost certainly falling today as risk premiums recede quickly on bewildering TACO sentiment. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.49% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -15 bps from this time yesterday at 4.85%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -6 bps at 2.16% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.60%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday rate up +19 bps at 4.68%. The UST 10yr yield is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.11%.
EQUITIES RECOVER ABOUT HALF YESTERDAY'S FALL
The local equity market has firmed +0.4% in Tuesday trade, so far. The ASX200 is up +1.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Tuesday up +3.3% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +1.5% and Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore is up +1.7%. Wall Street its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +0.8%.
OIL FALLS BACK
American oil prices have fallen back sharply with the WTI benchmark down -US$30, now at just under US$85/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88.50/bbl. These levels are suddenly back to March 7 levels but that embeds a rise of +US$28 from the start of 2026, or +50%.
CARBON PRICE SOFTISH
There have been few trades so far today on the secondary market, and the price is down -50c to $44.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this time yesterday, up +US$103/oz or +2% and now back at US$5173/oz. Silver is up a sharp +US$7 to US$89/oz.
NZD BACK IN FAVOUR
The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.8 and up +40 bps from where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$69,309 and up +4.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate, at +/- 2.4%.
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41 Comments
"American oil prices ... US$855/bbl"
Yup, I imagine that would put a few of us out of business ...
Thanks. s/b US$85/bbl
How much per litre of petrol would that be. Doesn't bear thinking about.
So Trump does his typical word salad and now markets are risk on? Nothing about what he said today allows for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz not to mention adequate food into the gulf.
It's been all in the words long before Trump.
Every financial scribe screaming 'Growth is Good' for the last 20 years, has chosenly put words ahead of fact. One even tried to pit 'my truth' against 'his truth'. There is, of course, only one physical truth; this is a finite planet.
but - 'diversionary'. Bull---t.
There's obviously resources involved, but this has the potential to be a pivot point for values, financial or otherwise.
Iran can hold out for years if it has the will. If they even hold out for 6 months that could be the end of many of the Gulf States. Their future economic plans require an influx of migrants, wealthy tax dodgers, professionals, and indentured servants, and none will come if the place is on fire.
This is about a lot more than growth models and resources though. The motivations of both the Israelis and Iranians extend well beyond commodities.
Iran may well be virtually flattened but at the same time undefeated and more importantly unchanged. The offensive likely will even more comprehensively obliterate the suspected location of the suspected uranium as a the final, if you like, finesse. What is destroyed nationwide though, will cause great suffering to the Iranian people, not unlikely to be a humanitarian crisis, but the supposed Iranian government, under the power of the Iranian Republican Guard will, not without quite some justification, blame the aggressors and carry on regardless. At that point enter China because that is the only likely saviour on offer.
Very hard to say who will get involved in what capacity.
It's in Russia's interests for middle eastern oil to go offline.
It's in much of Asias interests to keep it flowing
The Saudis have a mutual defence pact with Pakistan who are nuclear armed
As I understand the recent unrest came from economic issues, probably in part due to Western sanctions. I can't imagine bombing parts of their main export infrastructure or the halt of export passage is going to be universally welcome
Massively due to sanctions - it was intentional economic strangulation.
Yeah I agree Pa1nter, Iran will hold out for years. Trump can claim the war is over but it never will be. Troubled times ahead in the Strait of Hormus. They will have thousands of missiles and drones hidden in the mountains. As someone said " you can't just turn off a war" memories are long. The USA can bomb away but they will never win.
If the US spent nearly 2 decades on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan with little to show.
A few weeks of air war against Iran isn't a sure thing by a long shot.
Especially when Iran have spent decades preparing for such a conflict, which assumes technological superiority by the Americans and Israelis.
the Yanks went into Afghanistan to get Bin Laden. Fair enough. But he moved off within months.
Twenty years later. The Yanks left, defeated.
But they got him in Pakistan thanks to a lead from a doctor. Extraordinarily, that doctor was not protected let alone rewarded for the input. Tortured and imprisoned for thirty years.
There's a great clip where a journalist asks him whether the war is over or just getting started? It's both! Just like the US had nothing to do with bombing the girls' school. Must have been the Iranians what did it! We really do live in a post-truth world
He was on Fox News saying that tankers needed to get some guts and start crossing the strait. This is despite the USA navy having no boats in the Persian gulf. Pot kettle black.
I think we'll miss him when he's gone
What's wrong with this picture? NZ Debt to GDP
https://www.statista.com/statistics/436529/national-debt-of-new-zealand…
See my post above, for what's wrong with it.
It fails to account.
But then, consider...
The big spike that has occurred since the coalition were elected?
Fill us in...
2019 (pre covid): 31.81%
2023 (general election): 46.92%
2027 (predicted): 57.63%
So Covid (and Labours supposed spend up) cost 15%, and Nationals tiny tax cuts cost 10%.
31 to 47 is about a 50% increase
And 47 to 58 is around 25%
.
Is it the shock at seeing a graph of NZ economic data going up and to the right?
It's much lower than most other countries and we need to pull our weight and catch up?
...all the above (depending on your perspective) 😂
More to the point....how does that align with this....
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/new-zealand/private-debt--of-nomi…
like this..
"What's wrong with this picture? NZ Debt to GDP"
Not that much compared to other countries.
Noted Aussie investor Roger Montgomery makes calls for investors to double down on private credit.
Ballsy. But this was interesting (sounds like some of my own narratives):
A generational shift is upending the political landscape, and for investors, the implications may be serious. For decades, Gen X and their parents, the Baby Boomers, rode a wave of cheap money and skyrocketing asset prices, while Millennials and Gen Z largely missed out.
The rise of event betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, alongside Memecoins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), is all the product of a generation that has given up on owning their own home and is looking for faster ways to make money.
Today, it’s the Millennials and Gen Z that hold the keys to the ballot box; they aren’t looking to preserve the status quo – they’re looking to rebuild it.
Consequently, we’re witnessing a pivot away from the era of “Central Bank supremacy” toward a new age of ‘Fiscal Activism’. Because younger voters missed the boat on the property and equity booms, their political demands are centred on redistribution: higher wages, a resurgence in collective bargaining, and a direct assault on wealth through higher taxes.
The signs are everywhere. Whether it’s the debate over negative gearing, changes to superannuation tax breaks and Capital Gains Tax, or the rise of protectionist “Australia-first” industrial policies, the message is clear: governments must take the steering wheel back from the central banks.
This shift toward fiscal dominance will create a fundamentally different environment for your capital. It means investors need to prepare for structurally higher government debt as governments spend more to appease their shifting electorates, a market that becomes increasingly sensitive to election cycles rather than just earnings cycles and the inflationary aftershocks, for as long as the government’s foot remains on the spending pedal.
https://rogermontgomery.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Whitepaper-March…
First it was the dentists. Now it’s the lawyers.
German pension fund for lawyers writing off its entire investment in the Transamerica Pyramid - a 48‑story office skyscraper in San Francisco’s Financial District that functions as a high‑end, multi‑tenant office building within the Transamerica Pyramid Center complex.
Pref equity. Full loss. CRE apocalypse. Anyway, you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar in Aotearoa and Aussie (so the water cooler bros tell me).
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sf-iconic-transamerica-pyramid-reportedl…
All the comets are aligned for Aussie IMO. Realistically, when you've been able to fake it for so long while pissing your natural advantages up against a wall, you're going to have to pay the piper at some stage. To some extent, the Aussie property Ponzi can be justified compared to other countries, given their national resource wealth. But even then, there are limits. On a measure of land values to GDP, I believe that the Aussie multiple is the most extreme in the modern world. The ratio exceeds Japan during their epic bubble. Might only be outdone by Dubai (Du-bubble).
NZ doesnt really have a gov debt problem.
It has a housing leverage problem.
Household debt is ~160–170% (from memory) of disposable income and wait for it........mostly mortgages!
This is pretty much why the housing market matters far more to nz stability than gov debt ever will.
Agree. The vast majority don't really understand this. They don't understand the relationship between pvte and public debt. And why it matters. They're constantly bamboozled by the ruling elite and the media - both who do a great job at spooking the sheeple re public debt. Steve Keen gets it, but he's persona non grata among those who cling to the dogma.
It's more serious when the h'hold debt is tied to SME debt, directly and indirectly.
Steve Keen also says crypto is a load of shite. Actually, pretty sure he calls it a clear example of a Ponzi. Can he be both a very smart person we should always listen to, or just when it suits our argument.
I wanna like Steve Keen. But he talks pretty fast, and speeds over some tricky topics on which he then bases some pretty big conclusions. Maybe AI can help me interpret his videos more. There must be an App that can do that
I don't mind his perspective on private debt.
But he doesn't seem to apply similar critique to public debt at the same time.
Steve Keen also says crypto is a load of shite. Actually, pretty sure he calls it a clear example of a Ponzi. So he's either a very smart person we should always listen to, or just when it suits our argument.
Stevo thinks stablecoins are built on ratty P. He's only need 2-3 hours to understand that stablecoins have nothing to with the BTC protocol.
That being said, it doesn't diminish the importance of his core thesis that excessive private debt, and the way banks create it as new money, is the main driver of booms, crises, and prolonged stagnation - not public debt.
Stevo thinks stablecoins are built on ratty P. He's only need 2-3 hours to understand that stablecoins have nothing to with the BTC protocol.
Ah so he's a legend about everything else but just needs a bit more info about Bitcoin. Why don't you get in touch and change his mind?
That being said, it doesn't diminish the importance of his core thesis that excessive private debt, and the way banks create it as new money, is the main driver of booms, crises, and prolonged stagnation - not public debt.
If the public debt is excessive it's also problematic.
Which is sort of the rub with debt in general; humans aren't endowed with a great deal of self control.
Ah so he's a legend about everything else but just needs a bit more info about Bitcoin. Why don't you get in touch and change his mind?
For the dominant centralized USD stablecoins (USDT, USDC, plus a few others), short‑dated U.S. Treasuries and Treasury repos now make up the bulk of reserves, alongside some cash and other cash‑equivalents.
Regulatory pressure (e.g., U.S. rules like the GENIUS Act) and market scrutiny have pushed issuers away from commercial paper and riskier credit into highly liquid government securities as their primary backing.
That's right up Stevo's alley P. He's just a bit of a dinosaur on how it all works.
Hmmm, none of that really refutes Steves claim that Bitcoin doesn't really produce anything of definable value and it's price requires a steady stream of new entrants. Trying to drown it in jargon doesn't change the fundamentals.
As I said though, he's not hard to find or contact. It'd be in your financial interest to educate Steve, and have him publicly support Bitcoin and attest it's not a Ponzi.
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