Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
General Finance has raised all its 1-5 year rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
TRENDING HIGHER
ANZ's card tracking shows overall card spending rose +0.6% in February (seasonally adjusted) and is up +4.4% compared to the same time last year. Spending continues to trend higher, with annual growth positive for most sectors. Housing is a soft spot, while lower petrol prices have dragged down annual growth in the motor vehicles and fuel category. But that isn't likely to last..
END OF THE SHORT AFFAIR
Latest Reserve Bank figures show two-year fixed rate mortgages have returned to favouritism with homeowners, ending their flirtation with super-short fixed mortgage terms.
HOLDING UP
The overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little change to last week's full auction. That means those good prices were essentially maintained, so no sign yet that the global rise in dairy supply is hurting prices.
HOT STUFF
MBIE has selected Todd Energy as the preferred lead contractor to drill the first exploratory superdeep, superhot geothermal well, which – if successful – could bring about a step change in our energy supply. The first well will be at least 5kms deep, accessing heat resources. The project has been allocated $60 mln from the government’s Regional Infrastructure Fund as part of its priorities aimed at developing a secure and resilient energy supply.
TEMPORARY BNZ ACCOUNT BLOCK
BNZ says it's introducing a temporary account block for some incorporated society customers as part of "a final push" to help them meet a legal deadline under the Incorporated Societies Act 2022. They must reregister with the Companies Office by April. If they miss the deadline they'll legally cease to exist. Thus BNZ says it's taking a "proactive step to prompt action."
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 IN SHARP RECOVERY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.3% so far today. That leaves it down -2.6% over the past five working days, and down -0.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +2.2% so far today. Mercury, Briscoes, Fletchers, and a2 Milk lead the NZX50 to a sharp gain, as Investore, Stride Property, Napier Port, and Vulcan Steel are the big decliners.
TRENDING UP NOW
Upper North Island wholesale spot electricity prices are over $100/MWhr today and Auckland (OTA) hit $165 at mid-day. (H/T TR).
ALL NECESSARY MEASURES
In Europe, ECB boss Lagarde has been out emphasising that they will be redoubling their efforts to keep inflation under control with an active monetary policy in the face of oil price pressures, and "will take the necessary measures to control inflation".
PANIC BUYING
And in Australia, there are more stories about panic buying of fuel, especially diesel, as farmers and fishers worry about availability to keep their operations going. They worry that food prices will be next.
URGENT SHIFT
And staying in Australia, Westpac among others are suddenly forecasting that the RBA will hike its cash rate target by +25 bps on March 17 to 4.1% and again in May to 4.35%. The sudden rise in inflation threats are behind the sharp change, with their central bank "feeling compelled to act".
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SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.50% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp from this time yesterday at 4.86%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.19% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.63%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday rate down -9 bps at 4.57%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.14%.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The local equity market has risen +1.2% in Wednesday trade, so far. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Wednesday up +2.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is little-changed however, up just +0.1% and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street in its Tuesday trade for the S&P500 was down -0.2%.
OIL SLIPS
American oil prices have fallen back sharply with the WTI benchmark down -US$1.50, now at just under US$83.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$88/bbl. There are still no ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz. Many line up however.
CARBON PRICE SOFTISH
There have been just a few minor trades so far today on the secondary market, and the price is down another -50c to $44/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this time yesterday, up +US$38/oz or +0.7% and now back at US$5212/oz. Silver is down -US$1 to US$88/oz.
NZD NOT CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -80 bps at 83 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.8 and little-changed from where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,019 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate, at +/- 1.8%.
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51 Comments
And in Australia, there are more stories about panic buying of fuel, especially diesel, as farmers and fishers worry about availability to keep their operations going.
Was reading about Japan's emergency oil reserves - equivalent to a whopping 254 days of domestic consumption. These reserves are from govt-owned stockpiles, private-sector inventories, and jointly held reserves with oil-producing countries.
Yet, for some reason, the BBQ banter always paints the picture of Japan as an economic basket-case that is poor in natural resources (which is obviously the motivation for the large stockpile). Aotearoa and Aussie have the least reserves among OECD countries according to the IEA.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tokyo-told-national-oil-reserve…
https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/special/article/detail_160.ht…
the BBQ banter always paints the picture of Japan as an economic basket-case that is poor in natural resources
I'd be amazed if such a discussion was held at any BBQ in NZ, ever. You need to find new mates, or new conversation subjects.
Japan gets 95% of it's fossil fuels from the Middle East. And amazingly, despite having a comprehensive electric rail system, it still requires more fossil fuels per head of population than NZ.
So it really badly needs a large fuel reserve. We probably do too. And I guess if we had 200%+ government debt, we probably could.
Not just that P, Japan has been one of the world’s largest LNG importers for 50+ years, historically shaping contract structures, pricing (oil‑indexed, long‑term), and destination clauses in Asia. Japanese buyers currently handle 25% of global LNG demand volumes when you include their contracted and traded volumes, not just domestic consumption. They're heavily involved across the LNG value chain in Asia‑Pacific, with stakes in regas terminals, pipelines, and gas‑fired power projects across the region.
Japan wears the pants in the relationship with Aussie in gas mkts.
All things you need to do
When you're poor in natural resources......
Really not sure why there's this constant 1980s era rolling argument about Japan in your head.
The one thing I envy most about Japan is the cultural capability to survive through turmoil. Comes at a price, but they will likely endure in Asia.
Extraordinary resilience. 1923 earthquake devastated Tokyo and Yokohama estimated 140,000 upwards killed. Sufficient recovery in time to launch invasion of Manchuria & China 10 years or so later and then in 1941 sweep all before them westwards through Sth East Asia to India and southwards as far as New Guinea. By 1945 all that turned to dust and a badly defeated nation. Today now though, among the top five largest economies on the globe. Cannot deny the ability to come back can you.
When you're poor in natural resources......
Which is something of a cliche. For ex, Japan has abundant water resources and rare earths. It has plenty of mountainous land, which of course is arable.
And if you're going to be an industrial, productive economy, it's best to secure energy resources, which Japan has done superbly. Warren Buffet probably understands that with Mitsui, given Berkshire Hathaway is one of their largest shareholders.
Interesting to also point out that the Japanese investment and long-term offtake contracts were indeed instrumental in the post‑1960s development of mining industry. The Japanese trading houses pursued resource security for Japan’s steel and power sectors, often accepting low‑margin “profitless prosperity” positions in Australian coal to secure stable long‑term supply. The structure - offtake‑backed project finance, equity participation by trading houses, and long‑term pricing - became a template for subsequent foreign investment in Australia’s resources sector and later LNG.
Which is something of a cliche
10s of millions of people died in Asia because of it.
Proportionately, not a stretch to suggest more people have died for the privilege of the Anglosphere empire.
Not hard, Japan was isolated for centuries and when they came out of it most everywhere else was taken.
They sure made up for it in short order.
In short, repeated dumb argument, is fairly dumb. You're a self proclaimed maverick and contrarian, if you think it's tough here you'd not have much chance of success there.
So you're not impressed that an island country with few natural resources has one of the world’s largest strategic oil stockpiles, typically ranked around third globally behind the U.S. and China?
You're a tough audience to please P. Point on the bear where Japan hurt you.
It's about as impressive as Gulf States having massive amounts of water desalination.
The fact the worlds 4th largest economy has almost as much as #1 and #2 is what you'd expect.
I'm pretty good with Japan. Lived there several years and speak the language. I have actually entertained early retirement there. But current events have me re-evaluating how close to humanity's mass I really want to live near.
Heinz Watties proposes closure of three manufacturing facilities, impacting 350 jobs
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/589279/heinz-watties-proposes-closu…
Wow. Is Wattie's destined to become a footnote like Cadbury's did when it close up in Dunedin. Opportunity for someone else I guess.
According to report, main reason is too much overseas competition - so probably no local opportunity.
Yup. The someone else, is somewhere else.
It's currently cheaper to grow some fruit in South America, ship it to Thailand, have them process and package it, and send it here, than it is to do all that here.
Even our minimum wage is 10x the wage of a factory worker a lot of places. And we get x amount of weeks off a year, sick pay, and this wonderful public service we enjoy. We have priced ourselves out of the market of doin' stuff.
Our best bet is probably for most other places to get volatile or inaccessible. Be a hard road tho.
And the higher wages just mean higher costs so we don’t really end up that well off.
biggest impact will be on growers of frozen veges and the workers this employs as these farmers move to another crop.
Whos going to process it?
Alliance if its Beef, more likely its people doing peas / corn moving to something else... red meat?
its frozen veges but guess also berries, I think smaller processors can cope with berries, but yeah corn mixed veges peas etc
So in effect we are losing our ability to process fruit and vege at scale, that may flow into growing, not much point growing something at scale that you cant get processed....never mind we can always import it (where have I heard that before....?)
Processing produce for refrigeration or canning isn't an overly complicated industrial task to scale up and down relatively quickly.
The problem is more whether anyone wants to.
You'd think...and yet here we are.
"Heinz Wattie's said the manufacturing environment in New Zealand was become "increasingly difficult" in recent years amid high inflation worldwide and industry challenges, placing "ongoing pressure" on its commercial performance."
https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/03/11/gutted-heinz-watties-looks-to-ditch-…
Yeah I'm not sure how a government can do much of anything to fight basic economics.
They're pretty good at speeding up businesses desire to offshore though.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Volkswagen lay off 50,000 people. Apparently rich whites aren't viable making cars at scale either.
https://youtu.be/MqvDrnnhQY8?si=tPbHKWOw7WA3VICY
Oh well at least they can convert to making military hardware.
"Yeah I'm not sure how a government can do much of anything to fight basic economics."
You may be bereft of ideas....others not so
The Employers and Manufacturers Association's Alan McDonald says others will go.
"We keep hearing rumblings of others getting ready to exit, significant-sized manufacturers as well as smaller ones. De-industrialisation's been happening, prompted by some very high electricity prices."
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audi…
China's electricity is 1/3 what ours costs.
They burn 10x as much coal (it's more than half their generation).
Even if we had price parity with China, that struggles to make a dent in the labour cost disparity.
What do?
I suspect labour is way down their list of costs in their operation....1900 employees before this announcement, many seasonal.
Energy costs for agricultural production and processing is about 10-15%.
Labour is closer to 50%. Even seasonal workers earn more than minimum wage.
In many parts of the world, it's $1 an hr. Labour is often significantly cheaper than flash mechanised processing plant, even if electricity were free.
So the race to the bottom is reaching the finish line. If we have access to the same technology and cannot compete because of labour costs that would suggest our (floating) exchange rate is overvalued.....mind you, our decades old trade deficit has been saying the same since forever.
It becomes obvious the system is failing when we lose the ability to feed ourselves.
What is an economy for again?
None of this is a new phenomenon, labour appreciation and production relocation has been going on for centuries. The scale and speed of it's relatively new though.
This is what the system does, there's no failure it's by design. it's not like we've set it up to be a perpetual wealth printing machine (we can print money but that's dividing wealth, not generating it). We've just assumed it is.
What is an economy for again?
In its essence? Trade, production and consumption.
Its essence is to provide the wherewithal to its members....not return to non members.
If the state gives you a stipend
Should you only be allowed to spend it on domestically sourced goods?
I can't really say which way works best. I've been to many countries with relatively closed or underdeveloped economies. None of their economies look to serve their people better.
"Should you only be allowed to spend it on domestically sourced goods?"
You appear to have missed the currency point.
move rural , be prepared
I had enough fun during the GFC to realize I'd be better investing in making myself less reliant on wider marker forces for my day to day existence.
I still get a better return engaging in market capitalism than homesteading. Although juice gets less worth the squeeze every day.
Fixing the rotary hoe shortly to get the garden bed ready. Have been stocking up on a few extra food items here and there in bulk for a just in case scenario too. Couple of years' firewood stocked up currently after a solid summer getting free wood here and there (network network network, plus less and less people know what to do wait it if taking trees out in an urban environment). She's going to be cozy winter.
Overconsumption isn’t helping either. We could probably have a diet like we did in the 1960s with quality NZ made produce for the same price as our excessive diet of cheaply made food from overseas. We seem to be mind washed into thinking cheap is good.
Interesting TV item about durum wheat production in the Wairarapa. They only started cause they were banned from growing peas because of some invasive pest. Durum wheat is what the Italians use to make their al dente pasta. Although it's lower yielding, but is lower GI than normal wheat and has a different taste. Also seems palatable by those who previously struggled with eating pasta. We often select the highest yielding, or sweetest, or shiniest, but there's other varieties and species that would help our diets
Heinz doesn’t seem to have done as well promoting the Watties brand. A bit like Systema; they got bought by a multinational and started making containers that are almost unusable and they haven’t even noticed how bad they are.
Usually any of the passion for the product dies when the founder sells the business to a genericorp.
And growers, suppliers of services etc.
We may be able to feed 40 million( suspect that number may be declining)....unfortunately they are all offshore.
Yes, I have some personal experience of this knockon effect: there are frequently more/even multiple numbers affected at ancillary services & suppliers sites than at the original closure.
Packaging, engineering, logistics,...
.
sorry posted this wrong thread
OK now we done woke and BS here is the real deal
https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/markets-readies-for-rate-rise-…
AUDNZD going to keep going up 1.21 now
and da comb nails the coffin shut a SECOND time
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-irans-hit-on-nz-mortgages…
rents down, interest rates up, council rates up NZ pooperty as an "investment" asset needs a reprice.
All good if you own an offshore sellable $5 mil Waiheke or Queerstown bach though, or an equestrian estate.
NZ pooperty as an "investment" asset needs a reprice
Too bad the pricing is usually highly impacted by owner occupiers. They don't really care about rental yields, or even whether their renovations have a commensurate increase in the value of the property.
Come, view my new subdivision architectural. And my new boat. And my leased car. I don't even own 50% of them. I'll still be paying for the boat long after it's unserviceable.
yes that shit show is not an investment
that's why da comb talks about professional investors
vs numpties
That's why it's so funny how much effort you guys put into working out rental yields dont support prices. That's not how much of the real estate market is priced.
agree numpty prices based on hope there is a bigger numpty to buy the bag you are holding
or as The Comb would perhaps say
Its not Professional Investment
Not really hope, people can and do spend money Irrationally on nice things for themselves.
The narrative is always that the prices are out of control due to speculation, but it's usually more people wanting things beyond their station. A down property market usually coincides with a weaker job market, a worse luxury car market, etc.
or war famine, pandemic... its about access to credit.
want does not equal credit access
Did you happen to see that CBA is now prepared to pay retail loan managers up to 80% of base in bonuses?
Royal Commision tried to limit to 50%
Ponzi in Aussie is in blow off phase now, rates go up next week. is it oct 21 for aussie right here?
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