Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
General Finance has raised all its 1-5 year rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
TRENDING HIGHER
ANZ's card tracking shows overall card spending rose +0.6% in February (seasonally adjusted) and is up +4.4% compared to the same time last year. Spending continues to trend higher, with annual growth positive for most sectors. Housing is a soft spot, while lower petrol prices have dragged down annual growth in the motor vehicles and fuel category. But that isn't likely to last..
END OF THE SHORT AFFAIR
Latest Reserve Bank figures show two-year fixed rate mortgages have returned to favouritism with homeowners, ending their flirtation with super-short fixed mortgage terms.
HOLDING UP
The overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little change to last week's full auction. That means those good prices were essentially maintained, so no sign yet that the global rise in dairy supply is hurting prices.
HOT STUFF
MBIE has selected Todd Energy as the preferred lead contractor to drill the first exploratory superdeep, superhot geothermal well, which – if successful – could bring about a step change in our energy supply. The first well will be at least 5kms deep, accessing heat resources. The project has been allocated $60 mln from the government’s Regional Infrastructure Fund as part of its priorities aimed at developing a secure and resilient energy supply.
TEMPORARY BNZ ACCOUNT BLOCK
BNZ says it's introducing a temporary account block for some incorporated society customers as part of "a final push" to help them meet a legal deadline under the Incorporated Societies Act 2022. They must reregister with the Companies Office by April. If they miss the deadline they'll legally cease to exist. Thus BNZ says it's taking a "proactive step to prompt action."
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 IN SHARP RECOVERY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.3% so far today. That leaves it down -2.6% over the past five working days, and down -0.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +2.2% so far today. Mercury, Briscoes, Fletchers, and a2 Milk lead the NZX50 to a sharp gain, as Investore, Stride Property, Napier Port, and Vulcan Steel are the big decliners.
TRENDING UP NOW
Upper North Island wholesale spot electricity prices are over $100/MWhr today and Auckland (OTA) hit $165 at mid-day. (H/T TR).
ALL NECESSARY MEASURES
In Europe, ECB boss Lagarde has been out emphasising that they will be redoubling their efforts to keep inflation under control with an active monetary policy in the face of oil price pressures, and "will take the necessary measures to control inflation".
PANIC BUYING
And in Australia, there are more stories about panic buying of fuel, especially diesel, as farmers and fishers worry about availability to keep their operations going. They worry that food prices will be next.
URGENT SHIFT
And staying in Australia, Westpac among others are suddenly forecasting that the RBA will hike its cash rate target by +25 bps on March 17 to 4.1% and again in May to 4.35%. The sudden rise in inflation threats are behind the sharp change, with their central bank "feeling compelled to act".
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SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.50% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp from this time yesterday at 4.86%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.19% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.63%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday rate down -9 bps at 4.57%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.14%.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The local equity market has risen +1.2% in Wednesday trade, so far. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Wednesday up +2.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is little-changed however, up just +0.1% and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street in its Tuesday trade for the S&P500 was down -0.2%.
OIL SLIPS
American oil prices have fallen back sharply with the WTI benchmark down -US$1.50, now at just under US$83.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$88/bbl. There are still no ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz. Many line up however.
CARBON PRICE SOFTISH
There have been just a few minor trades so far today on the secondary market, and the price is down another -50c to $44/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this time yesterday, up +US$38/oz or +0.7% and now back at US$5212/oz. Silver is down -US$1 to US$88/oz.
NZD NOT CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -80 bps at 83 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.8 and little-changed from where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,019 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate, at +/- 1.8%.
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10 Comments
And in Australia, there are more stories about panic buying of fuel, especially diesel, as farmers and fishers worry about availability to keep their operations going.
Was reading about Japan's emergency oil reserves - equivalent to a whopping 254 days of domestic consumption. These reserves are from govt-owned stockpiles, private-sector inventories, and jointly held reserves with oil-producing countries.
Yet, for some reason, the BBQ banter always paints the picture of Japan as an economic basket-case that is poor in natural resources (which is obviously the motivation for the large stockpile). Aotearoa and Aussie have the least reserves among OECD countries according to the IEA.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tokyo-told-national-oil-reserve…
https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/special/article/detail_160.ht…
the BBQ banter always paints the picture of Japan as an economic basket-case that is poor in natural resources
I'd be amazed if such a discussion was held at any BBQ in NZ, ever. You need to find new mates, or new conversation subjects.
Japan gets 95% of it's fossil fuels from the Middle East. And amazingly, despite having a comprehensive electric rail system, it still requires more fossil fuels per head of population than NZ.
So it really badly needs a large fuel reserve. We probably do too. And I guess if we had 200%+ government debt, we probably could.
Not just that P, Japan has been one of the world’s largest LNG importers for 50+ years, historically shaping contract structures, pricing (oil‑indexed, long‑term), and destination clauses in Asia. Japanese buyers currently handle 25% of global LNG demand volumes when you include their contracted and traded volumes, not just domestic consumption. They're heavily involved across the LNG value chain in Asia‑Pacific, with stakes in regas terminals, pipelines, and gas‑fired power projects across the region.
Japan wears the pants in the relationship with Aussie in gas mkts.
All things you need to do
When you're poor in natural resources......
Really not sure why there's this constant 1980s era rolling argument about Japan in your head.
The one thing I envy most about Japan is the cultural capability to survive through turmoil. Comes at a price, but they will likely endure in Asia.
Extraordinary resilience.
Heinz Watties proposes closure of three manufacturing facilities, impacting 350 jobs
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/589279/heinz-watties-proposes-closu…
Wow. Is Wattie's destined to become a footnote like Cadbury's did when it close up in Dunedin. Opportunity for someone else I guess.
According to report, main reason is too much overseas competition - so probably no local opportunity.
Yup. The someone else, is somewhere else.
It's currently cheaper to grow some fruit in South America, ship it to Thailand, have them process and package it, and send it here, than it is to do all that here.
Even our minimum wage is 10x the wage of a factory worker a lot of places. And we get x amount of weeks off a year, sick pay, and this wonderful public service we enjoy. We have priced ourselves out of the market of doin' stuff.
Our best bet is probably for most other places to get volatile or inaccessible. Be a hard road tho.
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