US sentiment jerks lower; oil bosses won't drill; China reacts to new US trade probes; China profits rise; six countries cut fuel taxes for their consumers; UST 10yr at 4.44%; gold rises; oil rises; NZ$1 = 57.5 USc; TWI-5 = 61.4

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the week has ended on a sour note, and it looks likely the quarter will too. Data expected next week isn't likely to boost anything. And the geopolitical mess looks like it could get even worse and more protracted.

Of equal worry is that the NZ Government seems to be just going through the motions regarding the fuel risks, not taking it seriously. There is lots of 'hopium' being smoked in Government circles, expecting the issue to just fade as quickly as it came.

Unlike the pandemic though, firms are not restraining themselves on price 'adjustments', ensuring they don't get stranded this time around. So we are very likely to see a surge of inflation far higher than the pandemic surge. You may recall, the CPI rose +20% between February 2020 and December 2023, with almost all of that coming from September 2022 onwards. We wont get that early two year restraint this time.

Elsewhere, in the US the updated University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply in March from February. It is now near the record lows at the end of 2025, with declines spanning all age groups and political affiliations. Households with middle and higher incomes, as well as those with stock wealth, experienced the steepest drops in confidence. The US war on Iran and the resulting uncertainty and volatility is driving the bad mood. The short-term economic outlook reported by this respected survey plunged -14%.

Meanwhile, uncertainty is keeping US oil bosses from investing in new North American oil drilling. They remember the pandemic spike with no fondness, and are trying to avoid the "value destruction" that followed that. They are happy to take the higher profits now without any effort or risk than invest upfront in new drilling and risk a sharp pullback. That view probably applies worldwide.

China has reacted to new US anti-trade measures aimed at them, starting new probes of its own aimed at the US. None of this augers well for the upcoming Xi/Trump summit, and anyone hoping for an easing of tensions then may need to reassess. The US policy actions all seem designed to provoke, so reactions from the Chinese should be no surprise. This is not a path to calmer trade tensions.

Profits at China’s industrial firms rose +15.2% in February from a year ago and the best start to the calendar year since 2022. A lot of this was driven by private enterprises (+37.2%), although listed companies saw only weak growth, and some foreign companies suffered retreats. SOE profits rose a modest +5.3%.

Taiwanese consumer sentiment has taken a hit, like everywhere else, now its lowest since January 2023.

Singapore and Malaysia released February PPI data overnight and both retreated, for Singapore its fifth straight decline, for Malaysia its 13th. But in both basis, March is unlikely to show the same direction.

India bank loan growth is remaining high, up +13.8% from a year ago in their March 29, 2026 report.

India has rolled back petrol taxes to ease local strains on households. Vietnam has done the same. So have Spain, Portugal, Brazil, and Sweden,

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, up +4 bps from yesterday, up +5 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is steeper at +51 bps (-7 bps). Their 1-5 curve is steeper at +29 bps (+3 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +74 bps (+2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +11 bps at 2.38% and that is a 29 year high. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.13%, up +6 bps from yesterday and a fifteen year high. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.80%, up +4 bps and its highest in nearly two years.

Wall Street is retreating again, with the S&P500 with down another -1.5% and heading for a weekly loss of -3.0%. Overnight, European equity markets were lower between Frankfurt's -1.4% fall and London's -0.1%. Yesterday Tokyo dipped -0.4% but is up +1.7% for the week. Hong Kong firmed +0.4% on Friday to be up +0.7% for its week, and Shanghai rose +0.6% for a weekly gain of +0.2%. Singapore was up +0.2%. The ASX200 dipped a minor -0.1% for a weekly gain of +2.8%. The NZX50 slipped -0.3% on Friday for a weekly loss of -0.4%.

The Fear & Greed index remains in the 'extreme fear' zone today as it was last week.

The price of gold will start today up +US$128 from yesterday, now at US$4511/oz, but down -US$62/oz from a week ago. Silver is up +US$2 at just under US$70/oz, little-changed for the week.

American oil prices are up another +US$4 at just over US$98.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$3.50 at just on US$111.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were very similar. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, already low, has dried up again. Even Chinese ships can't pass now, even empty ones.

The Kiwi dollar is -20 bps lower against the USD from yesterday, now at 57.5 USc, down -90 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.6 AUc. We are little-changed against the yen. Against the euro we are -10 bps lower at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -20 bps at just on 61.4, down -70 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,207 and down -3.9% from this time yesterday, down -4.9% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.9%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».