Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the week has ended on a sour note, and it looks likely the quarter will too. Data expected next week isn't likely to boost anything. And the geopolitical mess looks like it could get even worse and more protracted.
Of equal worry is that the NZ Government seems to be just going through the motions regarding the fuel risks, not taking it seriously. There is lots of 'hopium' being smoked in Government circles, expecting the issue to just fade as quickly as it came.
Unlike the pandemic though, firms are not restraining themselves on price 'adjustments', ensuring they don't get stranded this time around. So we are very likely to see a surge of inflation far higher than the pandemic surge. You may recall, the CPI rose +20% between February 2020 and December 2023, with almost all of that coming from September 2022 onwards. We wont get that early two year restraint this time.
Elsewhere, in the US the updated University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply in March from February. It is now near the record lows at the end of 2025, with declines spanning all age groups and political affiliations. Households with middle and higher incomes, as well as those with stock wealth, experienced the steepest drops in confidence. The US war on Iran and the resulting uncertainty and volatility is driving the bad mood. The short-term economic outlook reported by this respected survey plunged -14%.
Meanwhile, uncertainty is keeping US oil bosses from investing in new North American oil drilling. They remember the pandemic spike with no fondness, and are trying to avoid the "value destruction" that followed that. They are happy to take the higher profits now without any effort or risk than invest upfront in new drilling and risk a sharp pullback. That view probably applies worldwide.
China has reacted to new US anti-trade measures aimed at them, starting new probes of its own aimed at the US. None of this augers well for the upcoming Xi/Trump summit, and anyone hoping for an easing of tensions then may need to reassess. The US policy actions all seem designed to provoke, so reactions from the Chinese should be no surprise. This is not a path to calmer trade tensions.
Profits at China’s industrial firms rose +15.2% in February from a year ago and the best start to the calendar year since 2022. A lot of this was driven by private enterprises (+37.2%), although listed companies saw only weak growth, and some foreign companies suffered retreats. SOE profits rose a modest +5.3%.
Taiwanese consumer sentiment has taken a hit, like everywhere else, now its lowest since January 2023.
Singapore and Malaysia released February PPI data overnight and both retreated, for Singapore its fifth straight decline, for Malaysia its 13th. But in both basis, March is unlikely to show the same direction.
India bank loan growth is remaining high, up +13.8% from a year ago in their March 29, 2026 report.
India has rolled back petrol taxes to ease local strains on households. Vietnam has done the same. So have Spain, Portugal, Brazil, and Sweden,
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, up +4 bps from yesterday, up +5 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is steeper at +51 bps (-7 bps). Their 1-5 curve is steeper at +29 bps (+3 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +74 bps (+2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +11 bps at 2.38% and that is a 29 year high. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.13%, up +6 bps from yesterday and a fifteen year high. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.80%, up +4 bps and its highest in nearly two years.
Wall Street is retreating again, with the S&P500 with down another -1.5% and heading for a weekly loss of -3.0%. Overnight, European equity markets were lower between Frankfurt's -1.4% fall and London's -0.1%. Yesterday Tokyo dipped -0.4% but is up +1.7% for the week. Hong Kong firmed +0.4% on Friday to be up +0.7% for its week, and Shanghai rose +0.6% for a weekly gain of +0.2%. Singapore was up +0.2%. The ASX200 dipped a minor -0.1% for a weekly gain of +2.8%. The NZX50 slipped -0.3% on Friday for a weekly loss of -0.4%.
The Fear & Greed index remains in the 'extreme fear' zone today as it was last week.
The price of gold will start today up +US$128 from yesterday, now at US$4511/oz, but down -US$62/oz from a week ago. Silver is up +US$2 at just under US$70/oz, little-changed for the week.
American oil prices are up another +US$4 at just over US$98.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$3.50 at just on US$111.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were very similar. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, already low, has dried up again. Even Chinese ships can't pass now, even empty ones.
The Kiwi dollar is -20 bps lower against the USD from yesterday, now at 57.5 USc, down -90 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.6 AUc. We are little-changed against the yen. Against the euro we are -10 bps lower at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -20 bps at just on 61.4, down -70 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,207 and down -3.9% from this time yesterday, down -4.9% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.9%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
10 Comments
NZD weakening, oil rising, risk sentiment falling.... pretty textbook combination really
Not much mystery in it
The Market see's extended boots on ground, budget blowouts, inflation and higher interest rates. That's a bad combination.
Bond yeilds surging world wide.
More and bigger mortgage rate hikes are comming down the pipe.
A momemts silence for the 1 million stranded asset boomers, who were all promised untold riches from property, as the once thronging, property investor rooms, are now like deserted tumble weed towns.
All the hopium fades to a distant memory......
2012 to 2015 home prices are the near future. BACK TO THE FUTURE time!
Still, get the free oldie Waiheke trips, while this rort lasts!
Thats a massive leap from bond yields to a million coordinated sellers
Yeah. Probably nothing.
If we didnt have such a persistent trade imbalance we could be Japan....
Interesting angle on price restraint in the early 2020s. The data suggests a different story.
- Import prices reduced in 2020/21 but lower costs were not passed through to prices - this looked like 'restraint', but profit margins surged from 2020 to late 2021
- Look at the sales, expenditure, and margin of our biggest sector - wholesale as an example
- In 2022, import prices pushed up and companies either showed restraint (i think supermarkets did as a resut of profiteering accusations) or maybe they just didn't adjust prices quickly enough
- As RBNZ hiked interest rates through 2023 and 2024, NZ businesses were hit by reducing sales and profits in real terms, but they slowly increased profit margins through late 2023 and 2024 - another classic example of the economy refusing to conform to reckonomics textbooks
- Incidentally, if you look at that last graph you can see the economy cease its descent in late 2025 - but this was driven by increased sales enabling businesses to restore profits. There was zero sign of any tick-up in jobs (which only stopped falling year-on-year in Feb 26).
- My view is that the apparent recovery would have petered out in early 2026 - profits extracted, debts paid down, and very little investment in expansion is not a recipe for labour market expansion. Obviously, all bets are off now!
Thanks Jonny. Always rely on you for some solid analysis. :-)
"There is lots of 'hopium' being smoked in Government circles"
Well in all fairness, their election campaign was basically "Vote us, we're not labour". Could have stood a gorilla holding a "I'm not Labour" placard and he would have been voted by landslide.
Hence all the dead rats tacked onto policy no one bothered to notice!
"India has rolled back petrol taxes to ease local strains on households. Vietnam has done the same. So have Spain, Portugal, Brazil, and Sweden"
So the opposite of what's required to conserve black gold then. Understand India, as they're paly with Iran, but the others should know better!
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.