Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news most things are in abeyance until noon (NZT) when the latest Trump genocidal threats on Iran come to a head. Financial markets are waiting to see how this plays out. And of course the Strait of Hormuz is completely shut now. Commodity prices reflect that added pressure, fertiliser prices especially.
But first today, the overnight dairy auction brought a headline decline of -3.4% in USD terms, but that is only a -0.8% in NZD terms. But actually things were better than this because these changes are from the prior full auction result three weeks ago. Today's results area actually gains from last week's dairy Pulse events for most items, including both SMP and WMP. The big drop however came for butter (-8.1%) and Mozzarella (-6.2%), both items that don't feature at the Pulse events. So, overall, today's dairy event is really one where prices have stabilised over the past few weeks. This is so, even though global dairy markets seem well-supplied from many sources.
In the US, their Logistics Managers Index has shot up in March to its highest since May 2022 in the pandemic. This is entirely due to a very sharp rise in freight costs, but a contraction in transportation capacity happened at the same time. Warehousing capacity contracted as well. PPI inflation is getting well embedded now.
Meanwhile, the weekly ADP employment Pulse report delivered an unexpected +26,000 jobs gain last week, the most since this new tracking started.
However, this was not supported by the latest (February) durable goods order report that fell much more than expected, down -1.4% from January and its third consecutive decline. That makes it just +0.8% higher than year-ago levels and well below the PPI inflation rate.
And it was also not supported by the April update of the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey of 'economic optimism' which fell to its lowest level since June 2024.
Meanwhile, US consumer inflation expectations jumped from 3.0% in February to 3.4% in March. This may not have been as high as you may have expected, but the survey period covered the whole month, so is likely restrained by early-month responses.
China said its FX reserves fell -US$85 bln in March from February to US$3.34 tln, mainly due to changes in the USD:CNY exchange rate rather than an actual fall in reserves. It is a pullback from the all-time record high in February, back to levels that have generally prevailed since September 2025. Within this, their gold holding rose for a 17th consecutive month.
In Australia, their Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a significant jump in monthly inflation for March, up +1.3% from February. This was primarily influenced by an increase in transport, attributable to surging fuel prices. In annual terms, headline inflation reached +4.3% and has been at above the top-end of the 2–3% RBA target band for the past seven months. The monthly cost of living also increased in March, particularly for self-funded retirees.
The Australian service sector fell into contraction in March. It was a sharp fall from the February expansion. A drop in new orders and turbulent international conditions as a result of the war in the Middle East were the main reasons behind the fall in output. Making it hurt harder, inflationary pressures intensified.
The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain pressure index is rising, with the March result its highest since January 2023, although to be fair, so far the rises from May 2023 have all be quite gradual. Things could change quickly on that front, of course.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is marginally steeper at +50 bps. (+2 bps) Their 1-5 curve is also up +2 bps at +29 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is steeper at +70 bps (+6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 2.39%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.99%, down -5 bps. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is essentially holding at 4.75%.
Wall Street is in a increasingly sour mood today, down -0.7% on the S&P500. European markets closed overnight lower, between Paris's -0.7% and Frankfurt's -1.1%. Tokyo was unchanged at its Tuesday close. Hong Kong fell -0.7% while Shanghai rose +0.3%. Singapore dipped -0.3%. The ASX closed its Tuesday trade up +1.7%. And the NZX50 closed up +1.3%.
The price of gold will start today back up +US$24 at US$4676/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at US$72/oz.
American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$115/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just under US$110/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is essentially unchanged from yesterday at this time at 57.1 USc. Against the Aussie we have dropped -50 bps however to 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just on 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -15 bps from yesterday at just under 60.9.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,728 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.
Join us at 2pm this afternoon when the RBNZ is release its latest OCR review. While no rate change is expected, commentary on how they see the current oil crisis playing out with inflation will bring intense interest.
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63 Comments
A whole civilisation will die
But we just toadied up to that comment, because we're worried about 'our economy'.
I give Peters an F - we need a higher level of statesmanship at this point in global affairs. Could work on moral courage, perhaps...
There was a pertinent comment last night's thread - someone opining that Hong Kong and Singapore 'might grow'. Be very sure, high-rise clusters on small islands require huge external acreage - farming, minerals, energy - for their inputs and to dissipate their wastes. The have never been done anywhere near present scale, ex fossil energy. Given this ME standoff and the damage to energy infrastructure, they are under threat of de-growth, or worse.
Perhaps
But not before I murder these bacon and eggs.
It's easy to criticise from the benches, but Winnie is not on the benches, he's at the very front of the spear. The one saving grace is that perhaps Rubio is the smartest, most grounded person in the entire administration, despite who he works for. But Winnie knows that America can, if not destroy us politically and economically, they can do pretty severe economic damage that would be difficult to recover from. Trump doesn't care about our history, only, what pampers him. Did winnie take a korowai and taiaha with him to give to Trump? The smallest slip of the tongue could earn Trump's ire, no matter the intention. Winnie's walking a very sharp knife edge here, and is perhaps the very best to be doing so.
The reality is, more often than not, even with the most righteous and pious stance , you are not able to do much about the reality.
" righteous and pious stance"
The proletariat using that exact same logic is how you end up exactly where we are. Ignorant psychopaths in charge. Humanity deserves what it gets.
Glad you got the point.Sometimes in circumstances, there is no option other than to set your own defences to the best of your ability. Iran is demonstrating that right now.
Getting your point and accepting your point are not the same thing. We do need to forge our own direction and not accept the MAGA "lite" running our country cosying to this wreckless/insane dying empire.
Well opposition can succeed , in relatively recent times, dictatorships have been broken up fairly peacefully, Chile, Argentina for example, and in a similar vein Czechoslovakia. However by and large history would evidence a violent ending, and often too, the succession not being a hell of a lot better. The reality is though that when elephants fight the grass gets trampled and add to that, humans best not get in the way. It is hardly an unnatural survival instinct, to identify and seek safe ground.
"However by and large history would evidence a violent ending"
Exactly why corrupt despots should never be allowed momentum in the first place.
You can attach any sort of idealism but again the reality is that the situation and outcome will likely not be affected one iota by it if a future despot is the driver. For instance the overthrowing of the Tsar in Russia removed a longstanding punitive and persecutory regime under which the ordinary folk, the serfs if you like, were subjugated to a point not far off captivity. Yet the new regime the Bolsheviks adopted and adapted much of the same ruling apparatus and impositions and if you take Holodomor as an example, were equally as cruel. Whatever it was, at the end of the day, the common people had little say in the nature of their future. It may well have been a better outcome for them , if the revolution had failed and the monarchy resumed in a much reduced and different role similar to the Restoration, Charles the 2nd in Britain.
The average Joe isn't living in an information vacuum today. Of course there are different scenarios. Sitting back and relaxing while the despots ravage the planet is one of them. I'm not denying it.
Think we are reading from the same book. Just different chapters.
Rubio seems alright until you remember what he's doing to Cuba, a country he pretends to care about.
I've heard that before. "Rubio is the reasonable one". Rubio is a disgusting individual. The team around him are a bunch of fascist corrupt idiots and nut jobs. Rubio is an unprincipled butt kisser enabling the work of the above. That makes him a spineless jellyfish WORSE than the rest of the administration!
Wise comments: Murray, Jimbo, Foxglove
Listening to Peters this morning about the only thing he was willing to indicate was he is placing a long bet on the US....and that appeared a personal position.
NZ has to keep a friendship with the US but not with Trump, he’ll be gone in 2 years. I suspect the best way is to do nothing and say nothing.
Be longer than two years for things trump to go
USA has never really been our friend. Ally maybe, and the populace friendly. But never our friend.
They've been promoting capitalism across the world. Only good for the wealthy. Not especially so for functional democracies. They'll be our friend when we have something they want.
Capitalist countries are also much better for the poor too (unless you like to measure poverty by comparing them to the rich).
Only if you avoid asking what that 'wealth' is dependent on.
Which some of us fiercely avoid asking.
I think they're too caught up in the much better living standards to really care.
It's like a sausage roll. You know the meat is all arseholes and entrails, but it tastes good so meh.
You can go back to 1908 when Roosevelt’s white fleet of battleships was welcomed to Auckland harbour and departed to a rousing acclamation orchestrated by PM Ward. Some years ago the Herald I think, published the American notes, sketches and evaluation made of the harbour’s defences and commentary on the state of the nation. That all coincided round about the time of the perceived Russian threat to the Sth Pacific. The USA, President McKinley had embarked on imperialism with the annexation of Hawaii and then the false flag war with Spain, invading Cuba and the Philippines, annexing Puerto Rico for example. President Trump has often expressed his admiration for President McKinley.
I can't agree with that. Trump is a movement. When he goes, the incoherant speeches may end, but the politicians, money and voters that created this phenomena, are going nowhere.
As has been stated before, he's the symptom.
I know, but usually in the context of resource constraint. The MAGA movement is a religious movement. They're more concerned about abortion, trans rights, DIE, immigration. If there's an element of resource constraint buried deeply within their ethos, it's certainly not evident with their propensity for breeding like rabbits!
Peters is a political entrepreneur. He has no principles. He sees an opening in the political landscape, NZ MAGAS, and he wants to own that voter segment.
Got diesel at $3.73 this morning and felt lucky I filled before $4+
Surely Trump has to follow through with something if there isn’t a deal. You can’t keep extending deadlines and TACOing without looking like a complete muppet. I’ll be stocking up on supplies today!
You would think so but I suspect it’s going to be a weak response dressed up in the typical trump bluster.
Trump forced his own hand sailing a large battle group to the Gulf , and when Iran didn’t fall over in fright, had to do something. That’s tantamount to painting oneself into a corner, and from the look of it, with the latest chest beating, he’s doing it again.
Trump doesn't think he's a muppet. Everyone else is though!
There are increasing calls to use Section 25 (of the Constitution) to remove him though. Some experts, without a definitive examination, are indicating he appears to be exhibiting classic dementia symptoms. That'd make Vance president.
You would think if a president was removed his vice president should be too as a president could have engineered it so that the vice president is even worse in order make people reluctant to take that path. Automatic removal of the vice president would help to avoid that.
There's certainly the potential for conflict there. Too good a VP and they're a threat to the Pres. Too poor and they reflect badly on the Pres.
Vance, as far as the media is concerned, has dropped off the reservation. Yes he's still fulfilling duties as the VP but he's significantly distancing himself from Trump's bluster. Some postulate that it is because he's positioning himself as a possible presidential candidate. Perhaps.
But the Constitution does seem to lay out clear lines and procedures for succession. The alternative would be congress appointing an unelected interim executive. How would that likely go?
Dems managed to keep Biden occupying the Whitehouse hot seat when should have been occupying a rest home commode. Trump will be around till the end of his term, excepting stroke or cardiac arrest. Trump is sharper now than Biden at the start of his term.
But Trump is visibly deteriorating - the rate is faster.
Not solely due to an age related mental illness. He has some personality disorder(s), which are exacerbated by age, and whatever situation he's in.
In this case, he's made himself a nice kaka sandwich, doesn't like the taste, and wants someone else to eat it for him. But they're not interested.
Things must be getting bad.
“Normal people are getting into EVs,” said Tanya Sinclair, chief executive officer at Electric Vehicles UK."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/uk-car-sales-rise-to…
What's wrong prof? Your planet cooking project going off the rails?
profile,
I don't understand that comment. Can you elaborate?
I now don't believe Trump will last the full term. He's clearly not fit for office and I'm picking congress, regardless of political standing will eventually show at least enough selflessness to have him removed. It's only going to get progressively worse if nothing is done.
Even Alex Jones wants him removed. Things must be bad if folks like him are speaking up.
Trump is stealing Jone's thunder by out crazying him. Jone's market is being swamped.
I hope you're right.
Hegseth's clearing out of the military top brass is not a good sign
Obviously the timing suggests there are a lot of ranking members of the military opposed to this "operation"
Beyond that though I wouldn't put it past this administration to arrange some kind of false flag event before the mid-terms, then suspend the elections and call in the army to 'sort it out'
I can't find one in the website below, but no doubt there is a listing for betting whether this will happen:
Who can provide some transparency in what's happening to the pump prices of fuel?
Yesterday, diesel in Waipawa was $3.70/lt. Yesterday I received the weekly email from Farmlands setting the Caltex and Z truck stop price at 3.929/lt, Allied and Mobil at $3.766/lt.
Of course, the massive hike in fuel prices hurts. At a high level, I understand the cause. And I'm aligned with the thinking on energy deficiency. I just wnt to understand how the global shock is unfolding at the microcosm of the kiwi forecourt pump price.
From tracking the Brent price and NZD:USD, I don't see rational correlation between those indicators of fuel cost and what I see at the pump and in the Farmlands communication.
Anybody got an understandable (to a layperson like me) explanation?
Refining costs...the crude barrel price is only part of the story....there will also be increased shipping costs
Yes, agreed. But what is the spread of refining costs and shipping costs for the refined fuel that is imported to NZ? Is FERN (farmlands fuel brand) being severely stung in that area? Whereas Allied and BP for example are not?
With most of NZ fuel coming from refineries in South Korea and Singapore, that's not a very wide spread of supply source. And I double that Fern, or Allied, or BP, have each contracted single tankers to supply them. I suspect each tankers supplies all the retailers in NZ, with each retail company receiving a share on some sort of NZ based industry wide agreement. Which companies control how that divvying up is implemented and what opportunities cost disparities are in play? Are the non big four (BP, Z, Caltex, Mobil) and oligopoly screwing the other players? Similar to the oligopoly/duopoly structures of gentailers and supermarkets?
Sorry, i have no idea of the contractural arrangements involved, though I would expect that if one is hiking the price by 50 cents the others wont be far behind.
Don't worry, Trump's just TACO'd (for two weeks) and the race is now on to see how many tankers can be pushed through the Hormuz strait. Fuel should drop for a while, but we'll see.
Will the Houthis cease fire across the Red Sea though?
Of course the Israelis were bombing in the past few hours and Trump has a history of attacks during negotiations.....
The submission to the UN Security Council by certain Middle East Nations to sanction military action against Iran if justified defensively is pertinent. Firstly with the Houthis status in Yemen no longer being able to have full Iranian support, Saudi Arabia, Egypt & perhaps Jordan may well combine tp clean them out and restore security to the Red Sea/Suez passage. On the other side all that has happened to date has not removed the potential of Iran achieving and using a nuclear weapon or closing the Straits of Hormuz at will and the other Gulf nations may now be accepting that they will have to now get meaningfully involved.
Yes as predicted its TACO Tuesday (USA time)
With the fuel you are buying now having been cheap oil prior to the war which miraculously appreciated over the month there is only one explanation. Especially so when the government stopped monitoring and reporting fuel margins on 18/3.
Singapore Diesel futures are trading at US$232 a barrel.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/nymex-singapore-gasoil-platts-c1-…
And here's the reason for the high cost. There's extraction, transport and refining costs added in, but realistically what governs the price is the buying and selling of futures on the resource.
In a way that makes entire sense - because it is the future which has to do the paying-back.
And it already won't have enough energy input to do so - ex rampant proxy devaluation. at least.
Which all boils down to what I've been pointing out here for years: we are valuing, using the wrong metric. Indeed, we've probably been in trouble since 1970, disconnect-wise.
don't worry, it's TACO time again.
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