Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the US-announced ceasefire with Iran is struggling to hold, with Iran accusing the US and Israel of violations, and Iran launching attacks (counter-attacks?) on Gulf state assets. Israel seems very uncommitted to the US claims. There are thousands of ships waiting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but they must first pass Iran's new gatekeeper reviews.
The oil price has fallen back but only to mid-March levels and still +50% higher than the levels that prevailed at the start of March. And this is doing nothing to restore deliveries of refined product.
However, first in the US, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its March 18 meeting, which exposed how isolated Steven Miran is on that committee. In fact, some members were open to rate hikes at that time. The vast majority of participants judged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment were elevated, and the majority noted that these risks had increased with developments in the Middle East. They saw the conflict in the Middle East would likely lead to more persistent increases in energy prices and these higher input costs would be more likely to pass through to core inflation. Those risks are likely still there since their meeting given that crude oil prices had risen from US$63/bbl to US$95/bbl when they met, and are at that same level today.
US mortgage applications stayed low last week, restrained by lower refi activity.
Meanwhile, and in an odd move against the mood shift today, investors got higher risk premiums for the US Treasury 10 year bond auctioned today. The median yield came in at 4.23%, compared to the 4.16% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.
In China, a surge in heavy truck sales, especially LNG and EV versions, is bolstering a view that 2026 will turn out positively for them. Some of this was just a rebound from a weak, holiday-affected February. But those truck sales were at a five year high in March.
Taiwan's CPI inflation rate showed no reaction to the events in March at all, which does seem a bit unusual and an outlier result.
There was an Indian central bank review of their monetary policy overnight, and they left their rate unchanged at 5.25%.
In Europe, they reported February producer prices fell -2.7% from a year ago. But this is mainly due to the February 2025 base being unusually elevated.
They also reported that EU retail sales volumes were up +1.7% in February from a year ago.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, down -7 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is little-changed at +50 bps. Their 1-5 curve is lower however, down -5 bps at +24 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is flatter at +64 bps (-6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 2.37%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.92%, down -7 bps. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate down -9 bps at 4.66%.
Wall Street is in a relief rally today, up +2.3% on the S&P500. That follows European markets which bounced back even more, between Paris's +4.5% and Frankfurt's +5.1%. Tokyo was up +5.4% at its Wednesday close. Hong Kong rose +3.1% while Shanghai rose +2.7%. Singapore only managed a +0.8% gain however. The ASX closed its Wednesday trade up +2.6%. And the NZX50 closed up +1.4%.
The price of gold will start today up +US$64 at US$4740/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at US$75/oz.
American oil prices are down -US$20 at just on US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$15, also at just on US$95/bbl. The traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving again, but only for those that pay Iran's 'reconstruction tax'. The US has effectively shifted this waterway from being open and free, to an Iranian asset and chokepoint.
The Kiwi dollar is up +120 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +60 bps to 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +70 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +100 bps from yesterday at just under 61.9.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,919 and up +4.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.3%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
59 Comments
Is the oil moving again? I was under the impression only two tankers have gone through the strait. Pre war that number was anywhere from 80-130 tankers.
Latest appears three have got though. Don't know their destinations though.
This isn't over until Netanyahu stps flailing around as well. He's already been charged with war crimes so has to be careful of where he goes, as does Putin. What we need is for the Iranian's to take a case to the World court in the Hague to charge Trump with war crimes. How do you think americans would react to that?
How did the Israelis react to Netenyahu's arrest warrant by the same body?.
Seems to me that the well intended international organisations, United Nations, The World Court, World Health Organisation for example, are now being ignored to the point of impotency.
The UN has always been somewhat impotent Foxy, rendered so by the vetos held by the five permanent members of the Security Council.
Yes perhaps ever since Khrushchev hammered the podium with his shoe and British PM MacMillan had to ask for a translation.More and more the world is descending into a Wild West like format of shoot first, ask questions later.
The UN is nothing but the laughing stock. The whole idea of its establishment was to uphold peace and prevent further atrocities. Look how that's worked out.
The theory is good, but doesn't take into account half the world is ruled by psychopaths. If you have any better ideas don't keep them secret?
It, like anything where humans are involved, cannot counteract history's ability to repeat itself due to short memories of our species and our tendency to be tangible beings. We forget the atrocities of 2 generations ago as they have not directly impacted us emotionally or physically, and thus fall into the same territorial nature, wishing to exploit resources of others, greed and corruption grows, until there is a flash point.
That's because their army is not very strong.
Yes in the end Chairman Mao’s quote that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun, really says it all doesn’t it.
The WHO is one of the most outrageous bunch of murderous cretins on the entire planet - and you describe them as "well intended".
My god, what a monumentally tragic comment, even by cosy club standards.
You in conspiracy territory?
What basis your accusation?
Beyond conspiracy territory into the sunny uplands of contrarianism on this issue, it seems.
Quite frankly, PDK, anyone who needs an explanation and still regards this as "conspiracy territory" is, IMO, beyond help.
This would be the type who would swallow the story that an mRNA toxic and highly inflammatory gene-editing swill the WHO (Big-pharma's global cheerleader) helped push onto the global population, was a good thing.
You could start at ~48:00 in the link below, IF you care to gain some insight as to how this giant scam was perpetrated, along with how the gag orders that were ordered in NZ worked.
https://www.ukcolumn.org/video/supporting-vaccine-injured-new-zealander…
This criminal scam is still being covered up to this day. More than 90% of the industry collaborated in this Big-pharma sponsored mass-poisoning, and the NZ government were all in on the scam as well, including the PM, and both DPMs... boots and all... which is precisely why any enquiry they have a hand in will be nothing more than a white-wash used to protect themselves and the executive ringleaders from facing criminal charges.
Another problem is that the entire 'health' system in NZ has let down Kiwis to such an extent with this corporate-sponsored scam, that hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions, have lost faith in their GPs and the entire system.
One Kiwi who had the courage and knowledge to blow the whistle on the carnage that these toxins were causing, has been treated like a criminal. The interviewer, Dr Cartland's... " outspoken criticism of the so-called vaccines extends beyond injuries he has already witnessed, as he also warns of a future pandemic of “prion disease”.
He states that many behavioural changes witnessed in patients after vaccination correlate with a “prion-like disease” that is “neurodegenerative”.
This probably also accounts for a portion of the societal denial that refuses to accept the extent to which Kiwi's health and immune systems have been massively and permanently compromised.
https://envirowatchnz.com/2026/01/05/interview-with-nz-whistleblower-ba…
The real tragedy is that not a single dose of these mRNA toxins should ever have been deployed in NZ. This was obvious to me back in January of 2020. In desperation, in March of 2022, I wrote an article on IVM and how it could have been deployed, and, quote...
Reduced our "Covid" death toll to very close to zero.
Improved our community health in a multitude of other ways.
Eliminated the added financial stress.
Carried on with our tourist industry fully intact: Actually, probably increased it if anything.
Avoided virtually all the business closures.
Avoided all the resultant social and mental damage.
Avoided what looks like multi-generational derangement to a large section of our gene pool.
Emerged as a textbook example to the world of how to keep Mr Global in his place.
Gary Moller from Wellington (champion athlete Lauraine Moller's brother) a world-renowned cardiac-rehabilitation practitioner, who was run off his feet treating victims of this toxic swill, aired the article on his well-known blog-site...
https://www.garymoller.com/post/ivermectin-ivm-the-drug-that-literally-…
... and on Substack...
https://colinmaxwell.substack.com/p/ivermectinivm-the-drug-that-literal…
Although severely nobbled by the complicit social media that was all in on promoting this scam, this article still managed to find its way across the world.
who mentioned the World health Organisation Colin? And when was that said? Which conversation or debate are you in?
Foxy did, upthread.
I just wondered if he was covid-conspiracy-ing?
I admit it but mitigate it by the fact that if the intentions weren’t good there would hardly have been worldwide membership at the time of its founding.
OK. But what is the reason for Colin's angst? I would expect the WHO to have to prioritise where it places it's resources, which means some ares desperately in need of help go neglected while others get aid. Is that the reason?
Here's my unpopular opinion, the planet has about 5 (or 6) billion too many people on it for us to survive as a species.
So the WHO have the intention of looking after the wellbeing of the human race, but to do so means aggressive depopulation.
Burn the village to save it, in a sense.
I agree with the first part. The question is does the WHO acknowledge that perspective?
A covert depopulation strategy overseen by the UN? Interesting conspiracy theory.
"The question is does the WHO acknowledge that perspective?"
My god, Murray, are you for real?
I thought even the pseudointellectuals ensconced within the ICNZ cosy-club may have worked this one out.
Would anyone with two brain cells to rub together, actually expect the WHO to fess up and acknowledge it to humanity, if their cunning plan was to rid the planet of more than 6 billion souls?
Besides, talk about - "burning down the house to roast a pig".
Seeing as how the ICNZ club is too cosy and thick witted for your level of intellect why don’t you join instead the IBM club - that is the Infallible Big Members Club.
:-)
Typical - 4 likes for an infantile emoji!
It's fascinating to note that the entire cosy club hides behind nom de plumes as they toss word salad insults, mostly using appalling English, whilst I am one of the very rare commenters with the courage to embrace the strengths of my convictions and post under my real name.
Actually, come to think of it, I'm one of the minuscule number of commenters on the entire site who fronts up in this way.
Case in point - of the 54 comments on this particular thread, I am the only one to do so.
https://medium.com/the-inner-compass/the-courage-of-conviction-how-to-s…
I don't think there is a cosy club, most contributors disagree with each other on different topics. The closest you'll find are the occasional factions that form on the issue of house prices.
If you are feeling that some of your opinions are unifying a disparate group against you, that could be a spur for some introspection.
That's insulting Colin.
Quite honestly when confronted with such an antagonistic, self righteous and bombastic individual it would be unwise to reveal anything sufficient to enable him to seek you out.
If you find facts insulting, then I would suggest that you take another hard look at my comment again, Lou.
Oh, look... 4 likes in a jiffy - the cosy club is in full swing, supporting yet another infantile comment.
If you were trying your best to be almost universally disliked, you are doing so well there's now a club.
For someone that likes coming in hot and dishing out insults, you have extremely thin skin.
A discussion about population limits is far from offering some genocidal solution Colin. Are you so wrapped in your antipathy that you cannot see that? We discuss population limits all the time on this site, and pretty much universally agree that the solution is political. We are all sufficiently cynical to realise that a war rather than a programmed drive to lower populations by limiting reproductive replacement, is the more likely result, but also that denial largely reigns supreme.
I am not a conspiracy theorist, but rather have an open mind. that allows me to consider that there may be some truth in some theories, but I do need to see the evidence, not just listen to someones rant. I've heard a lot of rants and without exception I've been left with questions. Not a belief that powers are trying to kill us all off. That doesn't mean they're not either.
I would strongly suggest that you pay attention to Barry Young, Murray.
https://envirowatchnz.com/2026/01/05/interview-with-nz-whistleblower-ba…
There is no rant in his message - just the outrageous extent of the carnage, and proven by most bulletproof data set on the entire planet - caused by the most lethal and experimental batches of these mRNA toxins.
He was the only person within the entire NZ Health system who had both the courage and the moral fibre to blow the whistle on the lethal mRNA batches that were being deployed on innocent and hapless Kiwi recipients.
As Barry says at 51:00... "The process is the punishment... they will bleed you dry, and if I had gone through the system and hired a lawyer, my god, I'd be living on the streets - I'd be in poverty, well I'm not far off that now, but it would be just absolutely awful... .... and so I decided to be self-representive, and I don't like people raising money for me just to go to a lawyer. I have never asked for a penny for any of this."
Care the share any examples of the WHO contributing to depopulation?
If they are, they're clearly doing a terrible job.
Have you not seen Colin go deep on anti vax conspiracy mode yet?
A conspiracy is no different than an assertion until the evidence comes to light that proved otherwise. There are many so called conspiracies around COVID that seem to have a growing medical body of evidence to refute earlier claims. The scientific world should, as it always has, be open to new evidence disproving earlier theories, studies etc, and malleable to change in thought, practice and future situations were there is a mass pressure to approve an unproven solution, when there are also flags raised about authenticity of the proving methods. One of the greatest learnings of recent history in some ways.
I remember the conspiracy theorists back in the day claiming the vaccine was going to kill some significant proportion of the population, and haven't seen the mea culpas coming out when this turned out not be the case.
Or are we still waiting a few more years for the tidal wave of deaths to arrive?
There's a spectrum for sure, of which that sounds to be more on the extreme end. But it still needs to be noted there is a spectrum of views on the matter and the most extreme cannot be taken as everyone who has concerns regarding the topic, of varying degrees and rationles.
However, we are already seeing that there was credible rationale for govt to cease support for a second dose for teenagers, and other credible information such as Pfizer recommending pregnant mothers not to have the cominarty vaccine on their own website, yet the govt promoting it, GP's adhering to it, and for the many GP's who had genuine concerns for some of their patients who had compromising conditions, they were silenced with the risk of their career and licence to be put in front of the board which in the word of science, is reprehensible and abhorrent in my view. Others (most) had exemption requests declined by the MoH despite legitimate concern from GP's cardiologists and more.
We've all heard views, opinions and theories across this spectrum of views on COVID Vaccines, and as a separate mater, mandates (really needs to be separated as too many lump it all in together and dismiss others).
I continue to watch the ever evolving medical field in this space, as 2020-2022 was a time without logic, in the hope that the growing body of research brings truth, and accountability.
Yes, it would be equally crazy to think that the response was perfect. At the time I was not convinced that vaccinating kids made sense as the risk was so low - not a clear cut decision like it was for older adults. I was happy to be vaccinated myself as a health person in my mid-30s, pretty clear benefit I thought. In all the noise many older or otherwise compromised adults decided not to take the vaccine and there were needless deaths as a result.
Science and politics should have nothing to fear from looking into these things and trying to do a better job in the future.
And, MFD, would you care to explain why TPTB in NZ are still desperately trying to criminalise Barry Young, ... if, as you state... "science and politics have nothing to hide."?
https://envirowatchnz.com/2026/01/05/interview-with-nz-whistleblower-ba…
If you're going to use quotation marks, it is best to actually match the words that are written.
The answer is, I don't know.
Interesting1234... you said...
"The scientific world should, as it always has, be open to new evidence disproving earlier theories..."
Precisely, and yet the NZ system tries to criminalise Barry Young - the one man within the entire "health" system who had the courage and moral fibre to bring to the attention of the NZ public that these mRNA toxins included batch numbers that caused massive death rates for the hapless and unsuspecting recipients of these toxic jabs.
Many of the batches were as harmless as a shot of saline, whilst some were incredibly toxic.
UNLESS IT IS IN A CASE WHERE EVERYONE INVOLVED SUFFERS FROM WILLFUL BLINDNESS, COGNITIVE DISSONANCE, OR MASS FORMATION PSYCHOSIS
https://envirowatchnz.com/2026/01/05/interview-with-nz-whistleblower-ba…
Quoted from ~22:00...
"... of that group of people, you would expect in one year, well maybe 12 of them could have died, but now you see that 36 of them are dead from that group of 99 that were all "vaccinated" within a 2-hour-period, and they died within a year.
And you just say, well, what are the chances of that, and it works out at 1.8 trillion to 1 against. This is the easiest way to explain it, and to see that this is wrong. This is like winning the lottery 3 times in a row for something like that to happen by chance.
That was just one tiny little example - there are hundreds and hundreds of cases like that. You are talking about gallactically impossible events happening, and this is in NZ with a population of ~5 million.
These events were so remote, so off the scale, and yet they were happening all the time.
I struggled with it because it was like watching a train crash unfold in real time. And I knew the stories of these people. There was a lot of heartbreak in the data, and it's just like when you are sitting behind a desk at a computer, seeing numbers, but then when you translate that into people's lives that are lost needlessly, that hurts, it really hurts.
And so for me, that was my burden. I had helped to create the system - that's on me - that really hurts me to help create something that is not helping people - I felt like I was carrying this weight, and I wouldn't stop until we end this thing.
These last 5 years for me have been a complete nightmare in this dystopian world that we live in. And so whatever it takes, we need to end the Covid "vaxcinations" and just never do this again to humanity.
It was difficult because everyone else in Health NZ was all on board with it. You get to a stage where you think that this is willful blindness, or cognitive dissonance or mass formation psychosis. You have to know this is happening, but you are deliberately ignoring it.
Doctors knew that something was not right, and yet they deliberately chose to ignore it. And so I was stuck between a rock and a hard place because I knew that everyone within NZ was OK with it - they weren't going to do anything, and so what was I going to do?
I was a nobody - how do I get the message out there? How do I help people? It was difficult, it really was, and the longer it took, the more data came in, which was a double-edged sword because the richness of the data set was incredible.
And so yeah, it was, I have to get this story out so that I can help people and make sure this doesn't happen again, and that we should be much more careful next time."
Now he's plopping his conspiracy back on the table again I am getting some recollection, yes.
Must be a terrifying world when you think so many people are out to get you.
they're clearly doing a terrible job.
Just another ineffectual branch of the UN.
Murray. It was in response to Foxglove's extraordinary comment at 9:34 above.
61 nations signed up to the constitution of the WHO in 1946. So by your opinion, 61 nations went to the trouble of founding a worldwide organisation with the intention to do more harm than good. Well at least you and President Trump are on the same page here.
I am sure that when the WHO was formed, it had many honourable intentions in its charter, Foxglove.
60 years on, and the pharmaceutical and health products sector spends the most at both the federal and state levels in the US, and trying to influence lawmakers to gain significant control of the entire "health" industry.
Of the $4.2 billion spent lobbying federal lawmakers in 2023, the lobby was led by the pharmaceutical and health products industries, with a whopping $739 million - the same group are also the big spenders at the state level as well.
Tragically, NZ right through the scamdemic took its cues and narratives directly from the massively compromised US "health" system.
Those numbers are just the US Big-pharma lobby. The total global lobby is obscene, and the US is the largest single contributor to the WHO, followed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the European Commission, both of which are up to their eyebrows in drug-peddling and corporate grift.
Obscene levels of funding also come from GAVI, a public-private partnership that is funded by governments, giant international corporations, and private donors, including... guess who... none other than the cretinous Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
And please, Foxglove, don't try to link me in any way with Trump.
He is the genocidal cretin who fast-tracked the mRNA inflammatory toxins with his idiotic "Warp Speed" rollout of intentionally toxic products that would go on to compromise the health of potentially more than half the population of the planet.
This clown has more blood on his hands, due to the huge rollout he cheerled, than anyone else on the entire planet - IMO, more so than even than Anthony Fauci himself.
TOOFOO has since moved on to even greater crimes, including genocide, and starting a war that could well escalate into a nuclear holocaust, which could end up turning huge swaths of the Northern Hemisphere into molten glass.
Thanks, we agree then it was well intended and really at the outset, I said no more than that. In reality my contention of its impotency today follows in a similar vein, in that those original ideals, plans and implementation are no longer applicable.
Didn't get much media coverage, but recall that most Israelis condemned the World Court actions.
Understandable though as Israel has essentially lived under a state of direct threat if not outright war since it's inception. The US though - not so much.
For years all the trouble stems from Israel. And so it will be this week.
It appears there are 200 million barrels locked-in in storage. Behind that are shut-down wells probably commensurate with that; combined, a long and tricky lead-time even ex damage.
We chew through 100 million barrels a day, so over the 40 days that's at least 2 days' worth that went out of circulation - 1/20th or 5%. And that was ME sourced, so of far better EROEI margin than fracking, tar-sands etc.
Given that the global 'economy' is the matter of turning energy into work - all else is forward betting, eventually on same - and that efficiencies cannot compensate...
How is 5% less energy, shared? Price isn't the problem, nor is inflation; it's 'amount of work do-able'. And it may not be the highest bidders who win; China and Iran have a fairly mutual energy/goods trade which requires very little settling-up.
Cereal production cracks 3 billion tonnes for the first time, foods stocks are at record highs and baby production peaked 10 years ago.
World cereal stocks by the close of the 2026 seasons are raised once more and are now seen at a record level of 951.5 million tonnes, 9.2 percent higher than the previous year.
https://www.fao.org/images/worldfoodsituationlibraries/default-album/cs…
Goodbye Amazon, hello corn ethanol and tofu.
"16% of the area used to grow soya beans in the Amazon was cleared after the ban, and cultivation in untouched forest nearly tripled from 2018 to 2023, reaching 250,000 hectares"
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/29/agriculture-…
Hey - get your legumes off my cereal thread!
Global farmland area peaked about the same time as babies, so there is no need to cut down more jungle - especially in crap soils like the Amazon.
"According to him, that is a job for policymakers, lawmakers and the public authorities that make the rules and enforce the red lines.
“Given that Brazil already has plenty of deforested areas,” Nepomuceno says, “we have no need of clearing more land to grow soya beans.”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/29/agriculture-…
"we have no need of clearing more land to grow soya". Yeah, but they did anyway.
Global cropland is still increasing, World
"After millennia of agricultural expansion, the world has passed ‘peak agricultural land’
The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat."
Bollocks it does.
We're feeding them thanks to the fact that we're eating fossil energy.
A temporary arrangement.
Conspiracy theories the order of the day?.....heres one gaining traction that may well have a basis in fact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrBNfVn8r60
...then theres energy v output.
Would Trump trash the world economy, create a food shortage and cause thousands to be directly killed in order to make a buck?
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.