Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the Middle East ceasefire deal is still an imaginary figment.
Meanwhile, US real personal spending rose just +0.1% in February from January after stagnating in January. The few places of expansion were vehicle sales, healthcare, and financial services. This data shows why most Americans don't feel like they are making economic progress. Worse, real disposable personal income fell -0.5% in February.
And the final update of US Q4-2025 economic activity was revised lower yet again. You may recall it was originally touted as a +4.4% growth rate (from the prior quarter). Then the second estimate pegged it at +1.7%. This final update has dropped it to +0.5%, with revisions that reveal lower investment and consumer spending. Year-on-year in real terms, the US economy was +2.0% larger than in Q4-2024, and that is the slowest expansion since Q4-2022, and before that (and except during the pandemic), Q1-2019.
US initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 203,000 last week, far more than seasonal factors would have accounted for (188,000). There are now 1,928 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago, but more than two years ago.
The April USDA WASDE report shows smaller US beef production, and they raised their beef import forecast based on recent trade data and continued strong demand for lean processing beef (like from New Zealand).
In Canada, there is some intriguing politics to note. Mark Carney leads a minority, coalition government. But recent defections from the Conservatives, and likely by-election results, could see his Liberal Party governing on its own very soon as a majority party. They are cashing in on Carney's surging popularity.
In Japan, consumer confidence retreated sharply in March from February which was the highest figure since April 2019. The trigger for the fallback is the global uncertainty and the latest data takes their sentiment levels back to those of May 2025.
Malaysia said its industrial production rose +3.1% in February from a year ago. This was sharply less than the +5.5% expected.
Meanwhile, German exports rose more than expected, up +2.9% in February from a year ago, and that was despite a -7.5% fall to the US and a -2.5% fall to China. Their imports rose +1.5% from a year ago.
We should also note that Anthropic's new AI model is getting eye-catching attention. It's abilities have scared even its own developers who have warned Big Tech to prepare for major disruption. Current cyber security is about to get busted big-time.
Global container freight rates rose just +1% last week from the prior week to be +2% higher than year-ago levels. And that was despite sharp increases in China-EU rates that have been roiled by the Middle East conflicts. Bulk cargo rates rose +3.3% over the past week to be +60% higher than year-ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is little-changed at +51 bps. Their 1-5 curve is lower however, down -2 bps at +22 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is little-changed at +65 bps (+1 bp). The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 2.38%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.92%, unchanged. But the NZ Government 10 year bond rate up +7 bps at 4.73%.
Wall Street is up +0.6% on the S&P500. But European markets all finished lower overnight, between London's -0.1% and Frankfurt's -1.1%. Tokyo was down -0.7% at its Thursday close. Hong Kong fell -0.5% while Shanghai fell -0.7%. Singapore ended down -0.4%. The ASX closed its Thursday trade up +0.2%. And the NZX50 closed up +0.1%.
The price of gold will start today up +US$59 at US$4799/oz. (It's record high is US$5422/oz.) Silver is up +US$1.50 at US$76.50/oz.
American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is up a bit less at just under US$97/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +10 bps to 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +30 bps from yesterday at just over 62.2.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,330 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.
[Please note there will be no video version today.]
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46 Comments
Year-on-year in real terms, the US economy was +2.0% larger than in Q4-2024, and that is the slowest expansion since Q4-2022, and before that (and except during the pandemic), Q1-2019
How come they are doing so well compared to us? 2% growth would not be our worst year!
Something something AI bubble something
I’m told trickle down doesn’t work, yet somehow US wages keep going up when those Silicon Valley billionaires make money. Maybe they could banish them to NZ, then we could complain about them and poverty while getting amazing growth.
And therein lies the issue of frothing over macro figures.
Productivity can be in a similar boat; for the past decade or two, wages don't rise with productivity growth. Possibly because it coincides with capital investment, and workers don't often own the capital.
But wages have risen way faster than inflation (except in NZ after the coalition took over).
Trickle down isn’t by any means perfect, the rich do way better than the poor. But the poor would also be worse off without the rich (unless you prefer to measure equality than incomes)
It seems like you're conflicting two sides against the middle Jimbo? I agree 'trickle down' doesn't work. Bezos is an example where billionaires get rich paying ordinary workers minimum wage. Silicon Valley is a little different. Most workers there are talented in technology in some way and there is a lot of competition for that talent. Pay them well or lose them. Both are extremes of sorts.
My view is Bezos could possibly afford to pay his workers better, but is his wealth from the returns of his business or like Zuckerberg, simply the proceeds of floating the business on the sharemarket while the business is not all that profitable?
Let's say Bezos was a Kiwi and founded Amazon and AWS here, you think the average NZer would be worse off?
If Bezos paid his workers more, he wouldn't be price competitive, and some other bozo would compete with minimum wage employees.
That's a part of the conundrum I mused upon. What is the profitability of his business's and how does staff wages impact there? I have literally seen employers with a poor attitude towards their employees, and equally employees and union members who don't understand that a business absolutely must be profitable for them to have a paying job and job security. It's a balance business owners must work to. One solution I heard about some years ago, was a business owner who had a very good year and at Christmas gave all his employees a significant bonus, redistributing a lot of his profits to them. One of the employees and beneficiaries of this largess was a friend of mine who was paying child support, and ended up getting screwed because of the bonus. I've heard of other perspectives too, where a retired CEO of a US company told an interviewer her had foregone a significant pay packet (in the millions) and used those funds to increase the pay of all his employees. An unexpected consequence was an increase in productivity and increased staff retention. Less costs.
Murray, a current challenge is that employees who have private use of a company vehicle as part of the package are enjoying a significant boost in effective income vs those who don't. It's throwing up some interesting changes in how these vehicles are being used by these employees during their own time.
True. I discussed that with a colleague this morning. I suggest it would come down to permitted use being defined in the contract. Commuting has always been and expense for workers though. The current circumstances will see the economy significantly suppressed.
I noted that when the first bombs fell in Iran the fuel prices jumped at the pumps, but internationally while crude has come back, those pump prices are still going up, not down. Underlines the lies the government and fuel companies are telling doesn't it?
Good employers may consider fuel vouchers, but I tend to doubt that will happen for most if not all.
Murray. Re your first para, employers need to proceed with caution before materially restricting what has been a peacetime privilege. Staff develop vehicle use patterns and family support arrangements based on a company vehicle being available. Household life can be seriously disrupted by a knee jerk reaction, leading to resentment and withdrawal of discretionary labour/effort.
Don't disagree. Any change of vehicle use provisions in a contract will need, by law, to be negotiated and not imposed without agreement. However as indicated earlier, other factors may come into consideration such as the company's ability to pay - profitability, leading to job security etc. It's not a simple picture. Just like pay rates they have to be affordable for the business. It is in effect an investment and there needs to be a return on that investment.
Private credit bubble and continued massive US Govt deficit spending.
We are currently running modest private debt expansion and a decent govt deficit expansion - but our current account deficit is eating most of that up.
Maybe. I reckon the US government could raise their tax rate slightly and not borrow and still have good GDP growth. The right wing concept that low taxes and government debt are needed for growth doesn't stack up to me. I also don't believe that raising tax rates just leads to more private debt.
Reckon?
You studiously avoid that which is the total underwriter of 'economic growth', then opine long and hard?
Good, at least, to see 'believe' in there - although the statement is a B-Deck-of the Titanic one.
The math doesn't lie - GDP moves in lock-step with energy-use. Any national variance can be attributed, quite easily, to offshoring.
Top Economist: The Unthinkable is About to Happen to Oil Prices - YouTube
So track the energy input (net, so EROEI and entropy apply) and you can see if they are 'growing'. Taxing is just acquiring a portion of the energy-flow.
I've given up listening to YouTube economists predict economic end of times on a daily basis.
Steve Keen crows about predicting the GFC, but he never reminds us of all his predictions that never happened.
Steve Keen crows about predicting the GFC, but he never reminds us of all his predictions that never happened.
What are those predictions P?
The Aussie Ponzi collapse? Ratty going to zero?
Illogical remark, with respect.
Judge the posit on its merits, please
Too many people avoid by denigration - it's an insult to your own intellect.
Another example of how foolish GDP is as a measure. Used for western countries to measure their junk against each other and if it aint working well, tweak the formula to make it look good.
The problem is everything from there out becomes increasingly arbitrary.
For instance, the Soviets used to compare themselves with the US by weight of TVs manufactured. And they often won. But because their technology level had their TVs weighing significantly more.
So, since the ceasefire announcement:
Iran has achieved:
- no more bombing of its land
- its regime is intact
- no control over its enriched uranium
- control and probable toll of the Straight of Hormuz which they did not have before the war
The USA has achieved:
- ..........?
I suspect that hasn’t been lost on Trump. If Iran doesn’t behave I reckon his finger could be getting trigger happy.
and what will that achieve.......?
If you're the school bully you don't let a pipsqueak show you up.
He's got the perfect excuse now. "I tried to make a deal, it was even in their favour, yet they didn't want it, so now I am dropping bombs"
When I was a kid it was getting in someone's face and then saying: you're breathing my air!
A massive distraction from the Epstein files? Although Iranian LEGO trolling videos are doing an exceptional job of keeping that in the media.
Some are forgetting it's just a ceasefire. Between an erratic all powerful belligerent and a tyrannical murderous regime in the world's most politically and religiously volatile region. Confidently declaring who is 'winning' or predicting where this will go is a mugs game.
Agree and it looks very likely that they will be up and at it again. But then how that might conclude the original main objectives of regime change and cessation of nuclear weaponry , plus the new one caused by themselves the Straits, looks to be entirely inconclusive. Iran has taken a hiding and more of the same just looks like stacks on the mill and regardless of what shape they end up in they can rebuild, China will be there for them, and become an ever greater threat to the region and beyond.
Carney was right - the old world order has gone - and it ain't coming back.
Those who laid bets on A deck, assuming they'd always be First-Class passengers, may be disappointed...
FG. The paucity of reliable information from within Iran is not inhibiting most legacy media from framing this as a forced backdown from Trump in the face of Iranian resistance. That the strait blockade is one of the very few strong cards Iran retains, that its hard military infrastructure has been virtually eliminated and daily decapitation of senior military personnel is occurring, does not deter the MSM from presenting Iran as still being a viable combat threat. Recent revelations about Tehran's chronic water shortage due to fragile systems and corrupt over extraction is just one example of the multiple civilian infrastructure vulnerabilities which the US could exploit to ratchet up pressure on the mullahs. The recent US destruction of a large bridge under construction was a symbolic demonstration of what phase three of its bombing campaign might look like. The mercurial occupant of the white house is in a tactically stronger position than his wishful thinking critics believe.
I doubt that they will, but even if Iran should capitulate for now, there is at this point, nothing to stop the regime rebuilding and resuming their policies and likely even more vehemently. The destruction of civil utilities, the shortage of water etc will be for the suffering of the people. That’s how dictatorships work after all. What is not known at this stage is the possible future involvement of the neighbouring Gulf nations and further afield. Iran as we agreed not long ago, has been a virtual pariah in the region, and there is enmity particularly from Saudi Arabia. Iran does not own the Straits of Hormuz. Oman & UAE border it and five other nations rely on its passage being safe. Obviously it would be ludicrous to allow Iran to run a toll gate and act as if they were Turkey in the Bosphorus. So that’s a question in itself, what will they do about it and what does their submission to the UN to sanction “defensive” action portend.
So their hard military infrastructure is gone but that was never a strength. That one the very few cards they hold is pretty much the joker.
That third phase? War crimes is what he has left?
Tactically stronger position?
He's all out of practical cards more like.
Corrupt over-extraction?
The US has 5% of the global population, doing 25% of global consuming.
It has instigated more wars and regime-changes since WW2, than any other nation - indeed more and at greater scale, than any other nation in history. Don't blame the embargoes and their impacts, on those being impacted - that's totally illogical.
"The mercurial occupant of the white house is in a tactically stronger position"
Keep telling yourself that next fill up at the gas station.
There's a difference between tactical and strategic.
Tactical is when you succeed in sinking an unsuspecting warship that's just been engaging in naval exercises with a friendly nation.
Strategic is when you're able to shut down trade in resources, resulting in crushing the global economy.
It’s about the money Polymarkets, reported in the Guardian How should we label this, it’s beyond corruption
Middle East crisis live: Netanyahu says ‘no ceasefire in Lebanon’; air raid sirens across Israel as Hezbollah launches rockets
The White House has warned US government staff against improperly leveraging their positions to place bets in futures markets in an email, the Wall Street Journal and Reuters is reporting, citing sources.
Some of Trump’s major policy decisions have been preceded by well-timed bets, leading some experts to question whether information had somehow leaked ahead of time.
Shortly ahead the ceasefire announcement earlier this week, a new group of accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed trades betting there’d be an announcement about a halt in fighting for 7 April. Some quickly pocketed awards, which amounted to hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits combined.
Exchange data and Reuters calculations also showed an unidentified trader or traders bet $500m on Brent and WTI crude futures in a one-minute period shortly before Trump called a five-day delay on 23 March 23 attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, after which oil prices fell 15%.
“While he [Trump] seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Reuters in a statement.
Not sure how reputable this site is but it suggests that the tolls in the Strait of Hormuz are being paid in (Chinese) Yuan, or crypto (BTC, USDT).
One point for the critics who say that crypto is only used for illicit transactions.
But also negative one point for the critics who say that crypto isn't "money" and doesn't have a real world use case.
Also, indirectly we're all crypto bros now 🤣
https://www.trmlabs.com/resources/blog/iranian-crypto-tolls-in-strait-o….
Only those who have a vested interest in the petro-dollar (the USD) remaining dominant - peddle that story.
Anything respected by two parties can be proxy - old socks would do it.
In that light nothing is invalid - and in the case of China/Iran, the trade is quite balanced: goods for oil. You only have to account at the margin.
Gold has replaced USD in global FX reserves.
The US’s war with Iran has put a potentially irreversible strain on the global trading system, with gold reserves having eclipsed central bank holdings of valuation-adjusted dollar assets for the first time in several decades.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-09/war-has-caused-lasti…
Seems some people are surprised that US economic measures are holding up much better than expected. I will point to – Liquidity Conditions” and “US Liquidity Index,” which are packaged composites of key Fed balance sheet and funding variables.
Reportedly many $billions worth have been invested as explosions in Iran. Mind you they are hardly of use for anything else in the first place. Replacing that stockpile of munitions is going to cost the US government plenty and provide plenty in return for the manufacturers. Years ago I read the history of the family in Chicago that were nothing until the civil war when they cornered supply to the Northern army of barrels of pickled pork. Out of that rose the giant Swift international conglomerate. Yes siree, there is money to be made out of warfare.
To be displaced.
Not 'made'.
The US military-industrial complex was about individual people and firms 'making money' - meaning, advancing themselves vis-a-vis other passengers. But in energy terms, the US is in entropy territory; and those bangs only make sense if they gain it access to the oil under the Iranians.
Before that 'money can be made' out of warfare it must be first 'made'.
Well yes certainly and in the same arena, that is why the share price of B F Goodrich for example rose rapidly in 20O1 upon US armed forces entering Afghanistan.
What happened to the suppliers of the Confederate Army ...do you imagine?
War is wealth-destriction
If you are accounting properly.
But economics doesn't account properly : the Chch earthquake was good for GDP - but we know damn well that it was a step backwards.
Likely that is a story itself within a story but as always it’s the victors that get to tell the most stories (well except perhaps for Gone With the Wind) and clean up on the winnings which would bring into the discussion, another movie called The Carpetbaggers.
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