Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news war has clouded 2026, a pall that will likely last all year. The Strait of Hormuz is silent again with little to no movement.
First in the US, their CPI inflation rate jumped to 3.3% in March, about the expected rise. This was all due to fuel prices, especially petrol and diesel. Core inflation, which excludes this and food also moved up but more modestly, to a 2.7% rate. The Fed will be watching to see if this is temporary, and building in.
Still, US oil rig counts are not rising in response to these higher prices. Actually, they fell slightly. With US crude prices higher than Middle East prices, they have decided the best strategy is 'do nothing' and milk the benefits.
So it will be no surprise to know that the University of Michigan sentiment index plummeted in their latest survey to a historic low in early April, far below both market expectations and last year’s low level. Sentiment declined across all demographics, as well as every index component, emphasising the broad-based drop. (But it is also worth noting that this survey was taken before the 'ceasefire' claims.)
Also, there was no growth in US factory orders in February from January, well before the Iran conflict. From a year ago they were up +4.0%, most of that coming earlier in the year.
(And staying in the US, Trump obviously knows he has been operating illegally, and is now offering mass pardons for those that do his bidding. He will also most likely pardon himself. He has been enriching himself by trading insider information.)
In Canada, their March labour market report showed little-change, with overall employment rising a minor +14,000 holding at just over 21 mln. There were also few changes in either full-time or part-time employment, and the jobless rate stayed unchanged at 6.7%
In Korea, their central bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. They have an inflation date of 2.2% but expect this to rise in the current environment.
China said its CPI inflation rate was +1.0% in March from a year ago, a smaller rise than expected and lower than the February +1.3% rate (which was a three year high). Food prices only rose +0.3% year-on-year, restrained by pork and fresh vegetables. Beef prices were up +7.8% from a year ago, lamb prices up +6.8%. Dairy product prices fell -0.7% on the same basis.
China also released its producer price data today which shows them suddenly out of deflation, with PPI up +0.5% from a year ago in March, the first time since September 2022, and prior to the pandemic distortion, the first time since early 2019.
There was a sharp drop in vehicle sales in China in March (down -8.8%) after Beijing cut subsidies. That has turned their automakers to chasing export orders, and their appetite is desperate, and a threat to most of the world's other carmakers.
In Taiwan, their export machine delivered another spectacular result in March, after the easing in February. Their exports were up to yet another record high of US$80 bln, a gain of +62% from the same month a year ago. Imports were up +59% on that same basis.
German inflation was confirmed at 2.7% in March, the same as their preliminary estimate, and back up to levels last seen in January 2024.
In Australia, they have just released some interesting data on the labour hire sector. Over there as at December 2025, 351,000 Aussies had a job in labour supply services, and for 297,800 (85%) it was their main job. 2.3% of all employed people had a job in labour supply services in December 2025. 68% of labour hire workers worked full-time (August 2024). 74% of them did not have paid leave entitlements, and 26% would prefer to work more hours (August 2024).
And the Albanese trip to Singapore to source fuel, especially diesel, caps an effective open-chequebook campaign to acquire what they need, with a virtual armada of ships to arrive in Australia over the next few weeks. The list here is interesting. We count 56 ships in that wave, some even from the US.
It is probably worth noting that China said it will ban exports of sulphuric acid, a move that will handicap[ copper mining, among other industries including the fertiliser industries. The copper price rose. And of course the sulphur price was already at a record high before that move. The urea price rose, back to the pandemic extremes. To be clear, there is no formal Chinese announcement of this latest curb, only producers there telling clients that they will be blocked from suppling them from May.
And the IMF said the war on Iran will mean slower growth this year because of the destruction of energy infrastructure and supply chain disruptions. Not really 'news' but their analysis is compelling, and 2026 could be a write-off for any 'recovery'.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31%, up +2 bps from this time Friday but down -4 bps from this time last week. The key 2-10 yield curve is again little-changed at +51 bps. Their 1-5 curve is steeper however, up +2 bps at +24 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is also steeper at +67 bps (+2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.82%, unchanged from last week. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps at 2.45%, the same for the week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.00%, up +8 bps from Friday, down -1 bps from a week ago. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate unchanged at 4.73% but down -3 bps for the week.
Wall Street is little-changed in Friday trade, down -0.1% on the S&P500. But that is a +3.5% rise for the week. European markets all finished little-changed as well overnight. Tokyo rose +1.8% in its Friday trade to be up +7.0% for the week. Hong Kong rose +0.5% on Friday for a weekly gain of +2.1% while Shanghai also rose +0.5% on Friday for a +1.5% weekly gain. Singapore ended up +0.2%. The ASX closed its Friday trade down -0.1% for a weekly gain of +3.2%. And the NZX50 closed down -0.7% for a weekly gain of +2.8%.
The Fear & Greed index is now in the 'fear' zone, shifting from 'extreme fear' last week.
The price of gold will start today down -US$31 at US$4768/oz, but up +US$92 for the week. Silver is holding at US$76.50/oz.
American oil prices are down -US$2.50 at just on US$96.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down = a bit less at just under US$95/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$11.50 and US$109/bbl respectively.
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.5 USc. But that is a +160 bps appreciation (+2.8%) from this time last week. Against the Aussie we have slipped -20 bps to 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -20 bps from yesterday at just under 62, or up +120 bps (+2.0%) for the week
The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,976 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. But it has made a substantial +9.0% move up since this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.
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5 Comments
a pall that will likely last all year
Interesting truncation, DC.
We are well into the first stages of a new paradigm. One of the repercussions may well be a change in the way we measure things. The initial flurry of consulting finance ministers and worrying about effects on inflation, are likely to be displaced by a focus on how many ships, carrying what, are arriving when?
In other words, the false narrative that was econo-speak, will be displaced by the tracking of realities.
From a Doomberg article yesterday:
"A second inference from the war is that many governments around the world underappreciated the value of sufficient stockpiles of energy within their borders. This is especially—and scandalously—so for several island nations in the developed world, like Australia and New Zealand, whose leaders should have known better. Australia openly flouted the International Energy Agency by ignoring its policy of holding 90 days of real, draw-ready physical crude and products in domestic storage. When the missiles started flying, the country barely had 30.
Whether enough pain was suffered to trigger a wholesale rethinking about the wisdom of preventing domestic oil and gas production, closing oil refineries, and relying on far-away places for critical economic inputs remains to be seen, but any sober after-action report would certainly call for one. At a minimum, huge increases in local storage should be built and the molecules to fill them purchased. Doing so would undoubtedly provide a steady bid under prices over the next 12–18 months, and to do otherwise would be the height of irresponsibility."
Actually, we have to build whatever comes next, before supply ceases.
Which it will, being a finite resource being hoed-into at an exponentially-increasing rate - or was until we hit the ceiling.
Now we're fighting over the last half. Why bet on that? Look at the folk unimpacted by the prices/shortages - who are they and how did they insulate themselves?
Time Lord,
and to do otherwise would be the height of irresponsibility." I can pretty much guarantee that our government will continue to be highly irresponsible. Of course redundancy should be built into every infrastructure project but isn't and won't be. Take the new Dunedin hospital for example. By the time it is built-probably massively over budget-it will already be inadequate.
Energy is cheap
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