A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; asking prices slide, fewer citizens emigrate, retail sector faces brutal outlook, Aussie sentiment crashes, swaps dip, NZX down again, NZD firmer, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SETTING SIGHTS LOWER
Asking prices slide more than -$20,000 in March and new listings rise on Trade Me Property as economic uncertainty starts to bite.

TIDE TURNS
Fewer New Zealand citizens are leaving long-term and more are returning after an extended absence.

MORE VISITORS
International visitor arrivals rose +1.7% in February from January (sa), reflecting ongoing growth momentum and a one-off boost from the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday (February this year, January last year). (H/T Infometrics)

RETAILERS RAISE ALARM, SEE BRUTAL IMMEDIATE PROSPECTS
RetailNZ says rising fuel costs (+33%) are sucking the life out of most retailing. They estimate non-fuel retailing is down -1.2% in March from a year ago. After inflation, volumes will be down even more. “After several years of tough trading for retailers, many don’t have the financial reserves to weather another sustained setback."

QUIZ UPDATED
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LOWER PRICES
There is another dairy Pulse auction tomorrow morning and that is expected to bring lower prices in USD, and with the rising NZD, much lower prices in our currency. The derivates market suggests butter could be down a chunky -8% in USD, SMP down -4%, and WMP down -2.5%. Part of this will relate to the cost of transport.

NZX50 CAN'T HOLD EARLY GAINS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is unchanged so far today. Enthusiasm is still leaking away as the session develops although it is heading for a -0.4% weekly dip. It is down -1.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +7.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% so far today. Ryman, Kiwi Property, Oceania and Sky TV lead the gainers while Gentrack, a2 Milk, Chorus and SkyCity casino all retreat.

FRAUD CONVICTION
A former finance manager has been found guilty of overseeing multi-million dollar Ponzi scheme targeting the Japanese community. Yuko Hanyu was found guilty by a jury in the Auckland District Court late Monday afternoon of four representative charges of false statement of a promoter, two representative charges of obtaining by deception and one charge of theft by a person in a special relationship relating to her role with East Wind. She was also found guilty of three representative charges of theft for stealing more than $800,000 from East Wind.

BIG CRASH IN COST OF LIVING SHOCK
In Australian consumer sentiment has dived lower. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell heavily in April, falling by a level only exceeded in the depth of the pandemic.

AUSSIE BUSINESS SHOCK
Australian business confidence has plunged dramatically as well. It fell -29 index points, the second largest monthly fall in the survey’s history – with falls of this magnitude previously only seen in the GFC and the onset of the pandemic. Current conditions changed little, but the sentiment outlook has crashed pretty much in the same way consumer sentiment has. Forward orders fell. Costs rose +3.0% in the quarter, more than twice as fast as prices charged (+1.1%).

RBA SEES ITSELF IN A TOUGH SPOT
So it will be little surprise to know that the RBA is worried, really worried. Australia faces a difficult macro backdrop. In a fireside chat, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned of the “nightmare” scenario where inflation accelerates even as growth weakens, complicating policy choices. He was speaking at a New York event.

SWAP RATES EASE BACK SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates are likely to have eased lower today after yesterday's jump, but perhaps only by -2 bps today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.55% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -9 bps at 4.94%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.79%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -3 bps at 2.46% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.70%, down -8 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +6 bps at 4.76%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.28%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMER
The local equity market has dipped -0.2% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Tuesday up +2.4% in its opening trade. Hong Kong up +0.6% and Shanghai has opened up +0.3%. Singapore is up +0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday trade up +1.0% for the S&P500.

OIL PRICES DIP BELOW US$100/BBL
American oil prices have fallen -US$8 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at US$97/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$4 at US$98/bbl.

CARBON MARKET STILL VERY QUIET
There has been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has firmed to $46/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is firm at US$4771/oz, up +US$51 from yesterday. Silver is up +US$2.50 USc at just over US$76.50/oz.

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.1 and up +30 bps from yesterday, all driven by the falling USD.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$74,403 and up a sharp +4.7%% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at just on +/- 3.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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