Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised most fixed rates. Details here. Heretaunga Building Society (HBS) also rated some rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised all its TD rates for terms 18 months and longer. So did HBS. And Sharesies raised its on-call rate to 2.0%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SUBDUED
March housing sales numbers and prices were little changed from March last year but buyers becoming more cautious, REINZ says. Rising interest rates (see ANZ above) are unlikely to encourage these markets over the winter months
VANISHING
Just asking - where have all the 'build to rent' projects gone? There were heavily touted in late 2025. Could it be they never made any economic sense - unless naive retail property buyer/investors lined up to take out the professional promoters?
ENABLING HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES
Today a High Court judgment has found that NZ Super did not comply with it's governing law that it (among other things) avoid prejudice to New Zealand's reputation as "a responsible member of the world community". The specifics involve investing in Airbnb, Booking.com, Expedia, and Motorola who are all active in operating in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian West Bank territories and are complicit in human rights abuses there.
DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
MORE BEEF CATTLE, FEWER COWS & SHEEP
Beef cattle numbers increased in 2025, while the number of sheep and dairy cattle dipped slightly, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. Final June 2025 data showed that the number of beef cattle was up +4% (+153,000) from the previous year to 3.8 mln. In the same period, the number of dairy cows fell by -1% (-87,000) to 5.7 mln and the number of sheep also fell by -1% (-331,000) to 23.3 min. There was 7.0 mln hectares of grassland (excluding tussock), little change from the previous year. That is 26% of the total land area of 26.8 mln hectares. (Urban areas cover a total of 0.228 mln hectares or 0.9%.)
MORE PEOPLE ON BENEFITS
March quarter data was released today for the main adult benefit levels. They are all trending higher. Jobless claims are highest in the north, lowest in the south.
NZX50 RANGEBOUND
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up just +0.2% so far today. It is heading for a -1.3% weekly dip. It is down -2.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +8.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.3% so far today. Genesis, Chorus, Investore Property and Infratil lead the gainers as Gentrack, Kathmandu, a2 Milk and Channel Infrastructure weigh on a fairly flat NZX50.
HEAVY DEMAND
$450 mln was offered in three maturities in today's NZGB bond tender, attracting 132 bids worth $2.087 bln. Yields were factionally lower than for the equivalent maturities tendered a week ago.
LGFA REDUCES ANNUAL BORROWING PROGRAM
The Local Government Funding Agency says, due to its high liquidity and lower than expected council borrowing over the nine months to March, it has reduced its June-year borrowing program by $600 miln to $4.25 billion. Bond tenders of $150 mln in both of May and June are expected to complete the year's borrowing program.
18,000 MORE JOBS
Australia's March labour market report was pretty tame. The employment rose by +17,900 (about the +20,000 expected) and the number of unemployed people fell by -4,000 in the month. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. Full-time employment increased by +52,500 to 10,174,400 (after the -27,700 fall in February) while part-time employment decreased by -34,600 to 4,593,300..
MUCH HIGHER INFLATION EXPECTED
The expected inflation rate rose by 0.7 percentage points in April to 5.9% in Australia. It was 5.2% in March. The sharp rise in April reflects the recent spike in oil prices, and makes it its highest since November 2022. In contrast, wage change expectations have remained unchanged for the past five months.
DOWNGRADED
In Australia, S&P has downgraded ASX to A+ from AA- on the basis of the risks highlighted by ASIC reviews that showed the exchange business prioritised short-term results and shareholder returns at the risk of the long-term health of the business. (This is what happens when fund manger interests take control of business leadership.)
NEARING THE BOTTOM?
China’s new home prices across 70 key cities fell -3.4% in March from a year ago, a minor worsening from a -3.2% decline in February. That was the 33rd straight month of contraction and the steepest drop since May 2025. Pre-owned home sales prices fell harder although for the first time in a while some key cities recorded month-on-month rises in prices.
UPBEAT CHINA DATA
China said its Q1-2026 GDP expansion was up 5.0%, and better than the 4.8% expected and the official target of "about 4.5%". And its industrial output was up +5.7% in March, they said. But their retail sales only grew 1.7% which will have been a disappointment because they really need a better rise in internal demand. All the good data reported is somewhat underlined by their data that shows electricity production fell again and for a fourth month, up just +1.4% from March 2025.
UP +25%
We should probably note that the bitumen price is now at US$4080/tonne, up +25% from the US$3280/tonne that prevailed at the end of February.
SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.56% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.96%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.78%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.42% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.68%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -3 bps at 4.64%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps at 4.27%.
EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market has risen +0.2% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday up +2.4% in its opening trade. Hong Kong up +1.0% and Shanghai has opened up +0.4%. Singapore has dipped -0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade up +0.8% for the S&P500.
THE TWSE MOVES INTO THE BIG LEAGUES
Here's an interesting piece of perspective. The Shanghai stack exchange market cap is not US$8.9 tln. But Taiwan has just risen to US$4.1 tln. Actually, that is now almost as much the London Stock Exchange now (US$4.3 tln). Paris (Euronext) is US$4.6 tln. The NYSE is US$45 tln, the Nasdaq $42 tln. Taiwan is playing in the big leagues now.
OIL PRICES STAY UP
American oil prices have risen +50 USc from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at US$91.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at just under US$95/bbl.
CARBON MARKET SPRINGS INTO LIFE
There have been a surprisingly high volume of trades today on the secondary market, and the price has risen in response, now up at $47/NZU and its highest since early March. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is steady at US$4816/oz, down just -US$6 from yesterday. Silver is up +50 USc at just on US$80.50/oz.
NZD UP AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.5 and up +10 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$74,992 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.
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29 Comments
the bitumen price is now at US$4080/tonne, up +25%
Added costs to any roading project and local road maintenance paid by ratepayers. Watch the voted-for long term plans councils have in place get revised and re-voted on by constituents again.....or not and they'll just load on more debt without communicating it to the ratepayers. Perhaps some proper oversight of contractor performance in this area is warranted and communicate to ratepayers more transparently.
But councils can only raise rates at 2% - 4%.
Maybe councils should give up on roads and start providing shoes and TVs instead so they can keep rates increases to CPI.
The Government have the King Canute problem I mentioned in my article.
You cannot push a car uphill with wet spaghetti, either.
The surplus energy going into society has been reducing (and per-head, for a long time) and entropy has been eating away at the other end of the conveyor-belt. So manoeuvring-room has reduced to nothing and in some cases, below.
Discretionary will be junked first, but that won't same the system.
Taiwan has just surpassed the UK in total stock market capitalization, becoming the world’s seventh‑largest equity market by value.
This shift reflects strong performance in Taiwan’s tech and semiconductor names, especially those tied to the global AI hardware and data-center build‑out.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/ai-driven-demand-pus…
Aotearoa punching about its weight again - Allbirds' cunning plan to pivot to AI. Met with their head of production before Covid. Very nice person who had an academic background related to AI.
The move boosted shares of the miniscule market cap company — it was valued at about $21 million at Tuesday’s close — by 582%. The shares, which were under $3 a day ago, jumped to about $17.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/allbirds-bird-stock-shoes-ai.html
Punching similarly, or suggestively so anyway, as holier than thou with the High Court ruling re Booking.Com etc nefariously snaring investment from NZ Super (couldn’t actually find the ruling) for dastardly dealings abroad. Quite astonishing that our hard pressed high court has ample capacity for such a hearing, and the plaintiffs obviously too. Nothing like a good dash of fuss and feathers amongst the great priorities in life or as Alfie would put it “what’s it all about then.”
Bookings is evil. In cohorts with Google, they literally forced Aussie accommodation suppliers to advertise with them and pay their ridiculous fees and commissions. And...
The billion-dollar duopoly of Expedia and Booking.com has developed at breakneck speed. These two Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) now control 85 per cent of the market in Australia for short-term accomodation. Commissions and prices have been rising quickly but, as with Google, Facebook and a host of other foreign digital companies, they don’t recognise the revenue they make in Australia. These are the supreme tax evaders, sending every cent of their local sales revenue straight offshore. Michael Hibbins takes a forensic look at world leader, Booking.com, estimates the Dutch group owes Australia $100 million to $200 million, and presents a compelling case for following France’s lead and forcing the OTAs to pay tax.
https://michaelwest.com.au/booking-com-what-the-online-travel-giant-owe…
New WOF rules are coming in:
https://vehicleinspection.nzta.govt.nz/news/changes-to-light-vehicle-in…
Basically:
4 year WOF for new cars
2 yearly WOF for cars 4 to 14 years old
1 yearly WOF for cars over 14 years old
1 yearly WOF for all motorcycles
The infringement fee for operating a vehicle with a WoF expired by more than two months will increase from $200 to $350.
Penalties for non‑compliant wheels and tyres will increase from $150 to $350 (infringement fee) and up to $1000 (maximum court‑ordered fine).
As quoted in Stuff:
Transport Minister Chris Bishop said the changes will save between $2.6 billion and $4.1 billion over 30 years through reduced inspection fees, less time spent on compliance, and fewer unnecessary repairs.
When he says "unnecessary repairs", either he means that there is less opportunity for dodgy WOF inspectors to fail cars for things that are perfectly okay - or he thinks we all like to get repairs done for kicks rather than as a matter of necessity.
He could surely clamp down on the dodgy WOF inspectors but nah, this is a lazy vote winner instead.
Cloud cuckoo nonsense - we won't be driving in 30 years.
Why won't (because it's not can't) people see this?
Because you can’t predict the future.
People made similar claims 30 years ago.
what was the price of oil 30 years ago?
Thirty years ago, in 1996, the average annual nominal price of a barrel of crude oil was approximately $20.46 USD.
Oil Prices in the Mid-1990s:
- 1996: $20.46 per barrel (Annual Average)
- 1995: $17.18 per barrel (Average)
- 1994: $15.82 per barrel (Average)
so Jimbo I am sure you will be able to drive a car in 30 years , with petrol , but there will be a cost....
however if you have solar and wind and keep those up to date you will have your own electricity...
The real price of petrol today is roughly 40–50% higher than in the mid‑1990s. If you bought a nice Toyota hybrid in 2026 that increase would barely be noticeable as you would be getting 50-60 mpg instead of 30-40 mpg of the older cars.
That's a nice illustration of how technological improvements have mitigated things. AI analysis:
1996 petrol car~9 L/100 km~$1.85/L~$16.65
2026 Toyota hybrid~4.5 L/100 km~$2.70/L~$12.15
Cars got more efficient faster than petrol got more expensive. Defying physics!!!
However, it hasn't been steadily going up, rather the odd shock or two has sent it up.
It's actually pretty cheap and if it is 50% higher in 2056 then that would still be affordable. We will probably have a lot more efficiency improvements by then too.
Where are you getting 91 for $2.70?
We could be driving cars like this:
1-Liter-VW (525150348) - Volkswagen 1-litre car - Wikipedia
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100mpg
Class, some of you got your answers wrong in last night's homework.
Here's a fact - see if you can work out why it invalidates BOTH (tisi and jj) the above comments:
"Humanity has burned its way through half the oil ever burned, in the last 30 years."
Now let's see if you can explain the flaws in both posits (answers on the board tomorrow).
Edit - if you want an extra task, explain why 'defying physics' is horsepoo. Because it didn't.
There’s a flaw in the statement ’you can’t predict the future’?
Oh please sir, I can answer now!
That sounds pretty dramatic, but you're making your usual basic category error Mr Teacher.
Burning half the oil in the last 30 years tells you nothing about oil scarcity. It just means we had more demand in that time period.
Proven reserves today are roughly equal to all the oil ever consumed with total recoverable resources likely several times larger again.
It's like saying ‘half the concrete ever poured was poured since 2000’ and claiming that means we’re running out of sand.
Also, the ‘defying physics’ bit was a joke because this is not a physics issue at all. It’s just that technological improvements have outpaced petrol price inflation. No thermodynamics theatre required!
Funny you should mention running out of sand. You nailed it. We are not running out of sand, but we are running out of sand suitable for use in production of concrete.
"Unfortunately, not all sand is suitable for use in concrete, which requires sand particles with sharp edges so they can bind well with cement."
https://www.soci.org/chemistry-and-industry/cni-data/2024/10/running-ou….
"The demand for construction-grade sand is growing at a tremendous rate and the world is expected to run out of this resource by 2050."
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722029746
Sand is hot property.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sand-mafias-are-plundering-t…
Seems silly to me. Nobody necessarily likes having to pay for a WOF, but so many people will rely on this check to trigger replacing parts, tyres, de-fogging their lights, etc.
this will result in Police becoming road inspectors like in AUS and we are already at a shortage of police here as is.
Personally i'd rather police focus on the meth issues we have than rely on them to be pulling people up for a bald patch on the inside of their tyres they never knew about.
I see NZ first polling at 15%. I still wouldn’t be surprised if Winnie goes with Labour if they can get 50% with two parties. A two way coalition would probably yield much more power than a 3 way. Maybe with Winnie as PM.
no way he knows he has the power, he has said he will not go with Labour with Hippie as leader...
are you saying hippy is yesterdays bread here?
If you wonder how Du Val lived take a peak at the liquidation auction
https://www.number8.bid/auction/unreserved-high-end-designer-office-fur…
Electronic coin sorter? Surprised they didn't have an cryosauna, sunbeds, and oxygen capsule.
The only build to rent I hear that is underway is funded with related party lending (Simplicity)
Article pay walled but summary is in the headline.
Sign of the times?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/three-auckland-ray-white-…
Wow!
Yeah, the headline almost says it all. Although it'd be interesting to know how long the agencies had been operating and how successful they had previously been.
These are just the ones that get caught.
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