Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news Iran announced it would open the Strait of Hormuz so long as the ceasefire by Israel holds in Southern Lebanon. This has had dramatic immediate effects on financial markets. The US oil price fell more than -11% (although the international price only fell -7.5%). US Treasury yields fell back. And the US dollar rose. But gold also rose, even as markets turned sharply into 'greed' mode. And reinforcing the 'greed' theme, bitcoin jumped out of its tight recent range. Wall Street hit a new record high. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is now 20.9.
The Iranian announcement comes with fish-hooks requiring ship passage on Iranian terms. But it looks like the US has agreed to that. It also is conditional that Israel doesn't violate that Lebanese ceasefire, which given their history is a long shot.
But there are reports that ships are already on their way through the Persian Gulf waterway.
In Canada, small business sentiment rose in April, an unexpected shift but likely due to local election results. The trade group that does this survey says it is still weak, but it is actually back to the levels that prevailed prior to the pandemic.
But Canadian housing starts sagged somewhat in March, coming in below February levels and what was expected. But they are now +6.9% higher than year-ago levels.
Indian loan growth reached +16.1% in the year to March according to official data released overnight. That is the fastest pace they have recorded since they started tracking this metric in April 2025.
In China, their construction machinery sector rose strongly in March with excavator sales up nearly +30%, of which domestic demand was up almost +24%.
Malaysian CPI inflation remained tame in March, up just +1.7%, although that was their highest rate since the beginning of 2025. They also reported that Q1-2026 economic activity rose +5.3%, and slightly less than the +5.5% expected.
Meanwhile, Singaporean exports were up +15.3% from a year ago, their second fasted monthly rise since mid 2024.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, down -6 bps from this time yesterday and the same for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is at +54 bps (+1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is at +20 bps (-3 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +58 bps (-6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.76%, down -2 bps. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 2.42%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.98%, down -2 bps from yesterday, down -2 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate up +3 bps at 4.71% down -2 bps for the week.
Wall Street is higher on Iran's announcement with the S&P500 up +1.1% in Friday trade to a record high and a +4.6% weekly gain. European markets were up between Frankfurt's +2.3% and London's +0.7%. Tokyo fell -1.8% in its Friday trade before the news, but up +3.6% for the week. Hong Kong was down -0.9% on Friday, and Shanghai was down -0.1%. Singapore was dipped another -0.2%. The ASX200 also dipped -0.1% to end its week up +0.4%. And the NZX50 ended down a chunky -1.2% for a weekly -2.1% drop.
The Fear & Greed index is now in the 'greed' zone, shifting from 'fear' last week.
The price of gold will start today up +US$69 at US$4857/oz, up +US$89 for the week. Silver is up +US$3 at US$81.50/oz, up +US$5 for the week.
American oil prices are down -US$10.50 at just over US$84.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$8.50, and now at US$91/bbl. These new levels are down -US$12 and -US$4/bbl respectively. North American rig counts fell again.
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc, up +40 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also unchanged from yesterday at just over 62.2 but up +20 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,134 and up +3.7% from this time yesterday. A week ago it was US$72,976, so a +5.7% rise since then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.
[There will be no video version today.]
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
46 Comments
When you look at the live tracking, not only in the topical straits but bunched by the hundred around all major ports at any one time, vessels of all shapes, sizes, purpose and cargo. It seems to be that there does not appear to be that much attraction to a career in merchant shipping if only indicated by recruitment advertising being not that much noticeable. Have met quite a few ships captains in my time. All independent, self contained, competent and steadily confident, a virtual overlaid persona. Life at sea, a highly skilled profession.
Why recruit a kiwi and pay high NZ wages when you can recruit from elsewhere.
The deckhands are disposable the ship is not.
Likely that is part of it for sure. Also NZ once had the NZ Shipping Co, Union Steamship, Holm & Co, the Shipping Corporation of NZ all now gone, so the platform to start in on a career is not all that accessible.
I wonder if many start in the navy?
Don’t know who sang it but ages ago there was a song with the lyric -“ we joined the navy to see the world, and what did we see, we saw the sea.”
Yes, but the real money for kiwis is in the Australian offshore jobs, highest maritime wages anywhere as I understand, thanks to their strong unions. Merchant or Navy have no chance of competing.
"Markets Surge"
Back to the extinction event.
PT08. Yep, got my NZX dip buying orders in for Monday.
It must be a disappointing day for the promoters of the collapse narrative.
Zach. Not sure about disappointing, more akin to horrific fascination at we lemmings heading for the cliff.
The Hormuz shutdown and subsequent price spike showed how simply human climate re-engineering emissions could actually be curtailed. Now it's back to the burn with the yeasts on the charge.
The only thing unfortunate about the whole episode, is it didn't go on long enough to actually change human behavior. Just like the GFC and COVID, which could have been great circuit breakers, if we didn't have one celled life forms in charge. The great economic superorganism blob again comes roaring out of the gates, consuming everything before it. Seems price is the only consideration when deciding whether a future is worth having? Of course before you cheerleaders get too exited, there's more to this story to come yet.
From my perspective, it's you promoting the collapse narrative. I'm anti collapse. :-)
I have to agree, high oil prices for a long period would have created short term pain for long term gain. It will happen for real one day.
Covid shutdown of western economies showed how ridiculous human climate re-engineering emissions could actually be curtailed. Locking down continents didn't move the dial on CO2 so no politicians "climate policy" is going to be anything but eye wateringly expensive virtue signalling. Better to focus on real problems like pollution, over-fishing, education, sanitation...
Measurements from the GOSAT and GAW global monitoring stations show that the CO2 concentrations in Europe, China, and the USA have continuously risen in March and April 2020 compared with the same months in 2019. These data confirm that the global lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic did not change the vertical CO2 profile at the global level from the ground surface to the upper layer of the atmosphere.
Thanks Prof. Interesting study.
"it didn't go on long enough"
You will note I specified in my comment that the change in polluting habits would have to be for an extended period of time? As far as I am aware there has been very little in the way of a reduction in Fossil energy use to date re Hormuz? A flight cancelled here, car pooling to pick up the kids there. Pretty safe to say there would be no detectable change in the upward trajectory of planet frying CO2 gas at this point.
The study you reference is a bit narrow in scope to be useful. All it says is, no decline in atmospheric CO2 could be detected, due to COVID lock downs reducing emissions in a selection of Northern Hemisphere sites. A more useful study would be one identifying why this might be the case?
Good to see the study mentioned seasonality. March/April is of course the high point for atmospheric CO2 due to the photosynthetic drawdown by Northern hemisphere forests being at it's seasonal nadir. Any CO2 released in these regions from human sources such as power plants would still be forcing concentrations up.
Figure 3 is interesting. There does appear to be atmospheric CO2 drawdown occuring in tropical areas such as the Amazon and Congo which aren't limited by seasonality cf 2019, (And oddly Canada, which the study doesn't mention either). Pity there's no data presented from Indonesia, or New Guinea.
It is hard to believe Tehran didn't forsee that if it closed the Hormus narrows to other than their mates the yanks would set up a picket line further south to control the quantity of oil leaving. They would have been well aware this would give the US power to force lengthy shutdowns of Iranian oil wells.
Ultimately wars are about money. This must have been in the US game plan all along. It's funny how Trump was mocked for countering a blockade with a blockade yet it is a move that makes perfect sense. The was likely the reason the marines were called in.
Well perhaps Trump studied Caesar’s victory at Alessia where he was both surrounded and a surrounder?
Given Irans well recognised strategic skill, this rollover smacks of desperation. Perhaps the Hormus tollgate really was the last card in their hand.
The problem of getting the Straits flowing again wasn’t on the original agenda but if it is solved to two of original objectives remain; regime change has resulted merely in change to the regime and while Trump is proclaiming that Iran will give up the disputed uranium stockpile, where and how it is at this stage is unknown. Iran might well offer that it is indeed buried under mountains of rubble courtesy of the June bombing raid and that if you want it you are welcome to go in and dig up. But then again, it might not be there at all.
Game plan all along? Trump said he was shocked that they would close the strait. Iranian shadow fleet are still getting through and now two boats have been attacked by Iran closing the strait again. The opening of the strait was conditional on the US blockade being lifted and they havent done that. Therefore we go back to the status quo. Iran have the patience to wait this out much more than the USA do. Its killing Trump in the polls and creating massive rifts in the MAGA base
Who were the 5 who ticked that 'wars are about money'?
They're always about resources - why else is the US in the Middle East? To corner the market in dollars?
Seriously, I know we're not meant to castigate impolitely hereabouts, but wars over money?
Spare me.
When somebody says it’s not about the money; It’s about the money. Courtesy H L Mencken.
Objection: Irrelevance
Overruled, carry on Mr Mason.
Money and resources are part of the same system. A barrel of oil is valued in USD. I'm pretty sure everyone understands that. It's hard to put a billion barrels of oil in your wallet.
I'm not sure I understand who has the power.
Regime change, fail.
Give up nuclear, fail.
Destroy Iranian military, fail.
Open the straits to free passage, fail
Ouch!
"A French court has found cement group Lafarge (Holcim) guilty of financing “terrorism” through its Syrian subsidiary, fining the company and jailing its former CEO."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/13/french-court-rules-cement-gian…
Great article here, highlighting the risk or a furthering property/asset market crash as interest rates hike into the future/private credits cascading sickness.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/this-round-of-interest-rate-…
We all see the gating of withdrawals from the now Zombie private credit market and its controlled implosion.
This rationing of future credit and less risk taking (well due imho), may seize up funding for many activities in 2026/2027.
Having cash or quickly liquid funds, is a good place to rest and watch, while looking to help out those abandoning good assets.
Interesting times ahead!
Aussie will be a dumpster fire in 2027.
While being a fan of Wolverine, he talks his book often. Even here, he signs off with:
I like being long cash, floating-rate notes and liquidity right now, which afford tremendous optionality when opportunities emerge.
I think what he's saying is prudent, but important to remember that many people do not fit his wealth profile.
The IRGC harshly criticized Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi after Araghchi announced on X that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open.” The IRGC’s criticism of Araghchi is reflective of broader divisions within the Iranian regime, which CTP-ISW has consistently reported on in recent weeks. Commercially available maritime data shows that no Iranian-linked vessels approached the US blockade line on April 17, and US officials have stated that US forces will engage Iranian-linked vessels beyond this line. CENTCOM announced on April 17 that 19 vessels have complied with US direction to turn around and that zero vessels have successfully breached the blockade. Commercially available maritime data shows that some non-Iranian-linked vessels have approached the US blockade line to exit the strait. These ships do not fall under the US blockade and are able to freely transit in and out of the strait.
Perhaps the foreign minister had loaded up on US stocks beforehand?
and a great timing to be the worlds largest LNG exporter - set to double export capacity by 2030.
Polymarket and Bloomie celebrating that Intel shares have officially recovered all losses from the 2000 dot-com bubble burst.
Not actually true. On nominal price only, Intel still trades below the split‑adjusted peak from 2000, so price‑only losses are not fully recovered.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-17/intel-shares-soar-to…
So Iran does not care for its energy plants?
They are like kids playing with matches and sending said matches to like minded, apochalyptic satelites. Burnt fingers all round, on both hands, yet playing with matches goes on.
IRGC has limited cards and craps where it eats.
So who has actually closed the strait again? Seems the US never actually had it open?
It does seem a mess
Talk is China is covering up a major Foot and Mouth disease outbreak....
China covering up another disease outbreak??
No way? Really?
Probably nothing.......
Very possible. Russia has been covering one up for some time.
"China is tightening border controls and culling livestock in its northwestern Xinjiang region after detecting a small outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, Reuters reported Friday, measures that come amid growing concern about possible cross-border spread following months of mass cattle culls in Russia."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/03/china-reports-outbreak-of-liv…
Yes see the Ruskie farmers and population are angry with Moscows handling of herd culls. Further food inflation in Russia will be a renewed headache for the Kremlin.
- Not surprising seeing the close Sino/Rus ties, that they share germs quite well.
Fair a balanced reporting in Russia, is also very dangerous to health. Take care Rus journos!
Someone said - in a dictatorship it is very dangerous to be right. Guess whoever that was, and if he or she was in a dictatorship, then that would have been quoted anonymously.
No one can be more intelligent than dear leader, otherwise you're not running a functional dictatorship.
"In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - Orwell-like quote. Something of a tautology really. Happens in the West today too.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.