Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news Iran announced it would open the Strait of Hormuz so long as the ceasefire by Israel holds in Southern Lebanon. This has had dramatic immediate effects on financial markets. The US oil price fell more than -11% (although the international price only fell -7.5%). US Treasury yields fell back. And the US dollar rose. But gold also rose, even as markets turned sharply into 'greed' mode. And reinforcing the 'greed' theme, bitcoin jumped out of its tight recent range. Wall Street hit a new record high. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is now 20.9.
The Iranian announcement comes with fish-hooks requiring ship passage on Iranian terms. But it looks like the US has agreed to that. It also is conditional that Israel doesn't violate that Lebanese ceasefire, which given their history is a long shot.
But there are reports that ships are already on their way through the Persian Gulf waterway.
In Canada, small business sentiment rose in April, an unexpected shift but likely due to local election results. The trade group that does this survey says it is still weak, but it is actually back to the levels that prevailed prior to the pandemic.
But Canadian housing starts sagged somewhat in March, coming in below February levels and what was expected. But they are now +6.9% higher than year-ago levels.
Indian loan growth reached +16.1% in the year to March according to official data released overnight. That is the fastest pace they have recorded since they started tracking this metric in April 2025.
In China, their construction machinery sector rose strongly in March with excavator sales up nearly +30%, of which domestic demand was up almost +24%.
Malaysian CPI inflation remained tame in March, up just +1.7%, although that was their highest rate since the beginning of 2025. They also reported that Q1-2026 economic activity rose +5.3%, and slightly less than the +5.5% expected.
Meanwhile, Singaporean exports were up +15.3% from a year ago, their second fasted monthly rise since mid 2024.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, down -6 bps from this time yesterday and the same for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is at +54 bps (+1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is at +20 bps (-3 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +58 bps (-6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.76%, down -2 bps. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 2.42%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.98%, down -2 bps from yesterday, down -2 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate up +3 bps at 4.71% down -2 bps for the week.
Wall Street is higher on Iran's announcement with the S&P500 up +1.1% in Friday trade to a record high and a +4.6% weekly gain. European markets were up between Frankfurt's +2.3% and London's +0.7%. Tokyo fell -1.8% in its Friday trade before the news, but up +3.6% for the week. Hong Kong was down -0.9% on Friday, and Shanghai was down -0.1%. Singapore was dipped another -0.2%. The ASX200 also dipped -0.1% to end its week up +0.4%. And the NZX50 ended down a chunky -1.2% for a weekly -2.1% drop.
The Fear & Greed index is now in the 'greed' zone, shifting from 'fear' last week.
The price of gold will start today up +US$69 at US$4857/oz, up +US$89 for the week. Silver is up +US$3 at US$81.50/oz, up +US$5 for the week.
American oil prices are down -US$10.50 at just over US$84.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$8.50, and now at US$91/bbl. These new levels are down -US$12 and -US$4/bbl respectively. North American rig counts fell again.
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc, up +40 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also unchanged from yesterday at just over 62.2 but up +20 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,134 and up +3.7% from this time yesterday. A week ago it was US$72,976, so a +5.7% rise since then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.
[There will be no video version today.]
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12 Comments
When you look at the live tracking, not only in the topical straits but bunched by the hundred around all major ports at any one time, vessels of all shapes, sizes, purpose and cargo. It seems to be that there does not appear to be that much attraction to a career in merchant shipping if only indicated by recruitment advertising being not that much noticeable. Have met quite a few ships captains in my time. All independent, self contained, competent and steadily confident, a virtual overlaid persona. Life at sea, a highly skilled profession.
Why recruit a kiwi and pay high NZ wages when you can recruit from elsewhere.
The deckhands are disposable the ship is not.
Likely that is part of it for sure. Also NZ once had the NZ Shipping Co, Union Steamship, Holm & Co, the Shipping Corporation of NZ all now gone, so the platform to start in on a career is not all that accessible.
I wonder if many start in the navy?
Don’t know who sang it but ages ago there was a song with the lyric -“ we joined the navy to see the world, and what did we see, we saw the sea.”
"Markets Surge"
Back to the extinction event.
PT08. Yep, got my NZX dip buying orders in for Monday.
It must be a disappointing day for the promoters of the collapse narrative.
It is hard to believe Tehran didn't forsee that if it closed the Hormus narrows to other than their mates the yanks would set up a picket line further south to control the quantity of oil leaving. They would have been well aware this would give the US power to force lengthy shutdowns of Iranian oil wells.
Ultimately wars are about money. This must have been in the US game plan all along. It's funny how Trump was mocked for countering a blockade with a blockade yet it is a move that makes perfect sense. The was likely the reason the marines were called in.
Well perhaps Trump studied Caesar’s victory at Alessia where he was both surrounded and a surrounder?
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