Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac has matched ANZ but only for the 12 and 18 month fixed rates. Xceda has raised istsshort term bridging loan rates to "from 7.50%" from 6.99%.All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac has raised its 18 month an 2 year TD rates, matching ANZ for these tersm. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MARCH TRADE EERILY NORMAL
In March, our merchandise trade surplus was +$698 mln, down from +$790 mln in March 2025 and up from +$470 mln in March 2024. This year our exports to China were up +11% from a year ago, while our imports from them were up +20%. Our exports to Australia were up +38%, our imports up +27%. To the US, our exports were down -5.9% while our imports were down -13%. To Japan our exports were up +4.1%, our imports up +25%. To South Korea our exports were up +3.4%, our imports up +55% and were more than double our exports. Curiously, in March our total petroleum imports were $724 mln, -30% lower than for March 2025. Maybe not curious given we had a supply problem.
IRD WARNS CRYTO 'INVESTORS' TO BE TAX-COMPLIANT
Inland Revenue is "reminding" investors of crypto-assets that they need to get tax compliant now, so they don’t end up with an expensive surprise down the line. They have identified 355,000 unique crypto-asset users here, undertaking around 57 million transactions, with a value of $36 bln..Crypto-assets are treated as a form of property for tax purposes and what people make from selling, trading or exchanging crypto-assets is taxable. Any profit made is treated as income, added to other annual earnings, and taxed within a person’s regular income tax bracket.
NZX50 MODESTLY LOWER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1% so far today. It is heading for a -0.8% weekly dip. It is down -3.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +9.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.3% so far today. Kathmandu, AirNZ, Property for Industry, and Briscoes open the week with gains, while Serko, Vector, a2 Milk, and Stride deliver declines.
THE NZGB BOND MARKET ACTIVITY IS ENORMOUS
At $86.8 bln of turnover in the one week to April 17, that was the fifth highest level of trading in NZ Government bonds on the secondary market in the history of this data series (which goes back to 2009), and the second highest week of 2026.
FTA WITH INDIA MOVES FORWARD
Legal verification of the New Zealand-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has been completed with both countries agreeing its signing on 27 April in New Delhi in front of a large contingent of Indian and New Zealand businesses. As has been standard for all FTAs, the deal text and National lnterest Analysis will be tabled in Parliament the day after signing and referred to the Foreign Affairs, Defense and Trade Committee.
FUEL STOCK RESILIENCE
Channel Infrastructure has confirmed contractual details with the Government for significant additional diesel storage at the Company’s Marsden Point Energy Precinct. Under the agreement, Channel expects to generate incremental revenue from the capacity availability date of $1.2 million per month over the term of storage which, given the short-term nature of the agreement, will not be subject to any PPI adjustment.
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
this is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status:
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 29.6 | 19.5 | 28.5 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 7 | 16.7 | 10.8 | 1.6 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 6 | 7.7 | 14.6 | 21.3 |
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 54.0 | 44.8 | 51.4 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 25.3 | 20.8 | 21.3 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 5 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 7 | 20.4 | 13.8 | 15.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47.0 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 25.6 | 21.7 | 25.1 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 5 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 0.4 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 9 | 20.5 | 18.4 | 25.2 |
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
INTEREST-FREE EMERGENCY LOAN SUPPORT
In Australia, they launched some direct "interest free" loans for certain sectors in their economy to assist them with the very high cost of fuel, logistics, fertilisers and plastics.
PBoC HOLDS LPRs
China has held its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) benchmarks at record lows for an 11th straight month in April 2026, matching market expectations. The one-year LPR, the benchmark for most corporate and household borrowing, was held at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, a benchmark for mortgages, remained at 3.5%.
ZINC RISES
And we should probably note that the zinc price has risen to its highest since 2022, and prior to the pandemic , its highest since 2018.
SWAP RATES RETREAT
Wholesale swap rates are likely lower today by about -5 bps across the curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.54% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.93%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.76%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -2 bps at 2.40% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.64%, down -7 bps from this morning. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate up +3 bps at 4.68%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from this morning at 4.27%.
EQUITIES LITTLE-CHANGED TO FIRM
The local equity market has held little-changed in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is also little-changed in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Monday up +1.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong up +0.8% and Shanghai has opened up +0.6%. Singapore has risen by +0.2% at its open. Wall Street is signaling little change on the S&P500 futures market.
OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices have risen +US$5 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now just under US$89/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$5 at just on US$95/bbl.
MEASURING THE IMPACT
Update: The IEA's latest monthly report details the quantum of the Trump Gulf War on the oil market. They say the global oil supply dropped by -10% in March to 97 million barrels per day amid attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the plunge in shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz. To mitigate the immediate impact of these supply disruptions, consumers and refiners have tapped oil inventories. However, where stocks cannot fully bridge the gap, demand has taken a hit. Most notably, Asian petrochemical producers have curtailed operating rates as feedstock supply has dried up. Households and businesses using liquefied petroleum gas have also been impacted, while flight cancellations across the Middle East and parts of Asia and Europe have led to a sharp drop in jet fuel consumption. As a result, the report forecasts that global oil demand will contract by -80,000 barrels per day this year. This contrasts with our earlier forecast, before the outbreak of hostilities, that global demand would grow by +850,000.
CARBON PRICE RISES
There have been more reasonable-sized trades today on the secondary market, and the price risen to $49/NZU and its highest since early November 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4795/oz, down -US$35 from this morning. Silver is now just on US$80/oz.
NZD HOLDS LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this morning's open against the USD, still just on 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just on 62.2 and little-changed from this morning.
BITCOIN STILL ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$74,457 and down -0.5% from this morning's open. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.7%.
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15 Comments
New Zealand's kiwifruit industry annual exports up 90% in two years to almost NZ$4.6B in the year to March.
Closing in on $5bn is impressive. I wonder what the breakdown is between green, golden and red ?
The EU is still the largest destination and absorbed the biggest absolute tonnage increase; exports there rose sharply (industry data points to ~70–80% value growth yoy early in the 2024/25 season on much higher volumes under the new FTA).
China contributed the second‑largest chunk of extra trays, with exports up around 20% yoy in the first half of 2024/25, driven mainly by SunGold demand and strong retail pricing.
ASEAN nations can buy Chinese kiwfruit - green, gold, red - at 40% lower prices. The quality will only improve with time and Zespri's share will fall.
So short term bridging loans up by 7.15%? (.5 on top of 6.99) There's some inflation for ya
There is a rumour that the US has fired upon, and captured an Iranian tanker trying to cross the Straight, and that Iran has retaliated by firing drones towards US warships. If true, this is a major escalation.
Any critical escalation would manifest itself by extensive damage and high casualties caused by a US Navy vessel being struck. That in itself evidences a serious imbalance in proceedings, given the damage and casualties suffered to date by Iran. As said elsewhere the entire situation is as if a gunpowder keg looking for a fuse.
Sal Mercogliano has a very reliable record when it comes to reporting on shipping movements and incidents.
It seems that the US destroyer Spruance fired into the MV Touska's engine room and disabled it before US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit took control of the vessel. CentCom has released the footage of the event.'
Its normal track over the past 12 months, operates from Iran in the Persian Gulf, through the Straits of Malacca to China, largely, and the ports of Macau and Shanghai.
In the last 30 days, the ship had departed from Shanghai, via Macau, went through Singapore, and was inbound towards Banda Abas, the Iranian port in the Straits of Hormuz, when the engine room was shot up using 5-inch MK 45 guns.
They spent 6 hours asking politely before they fired the guns. Marines from the USS Tripoli boarded it. This may be the main reason for sending the Marines to the region rather than 'boots on the ground'.
I see a squeeze coming on Diesel.
Total Supply in the next 3 weeks. 44.90 days / 480,430,000 litres.
MBIE say we use 10,700,000 litres of diesel a day.
That means at the end of the 3 week period there is 23.90 days / 255,730,000 litres left before new shipments.
Based on this tiny snapshot let's say a ship is worth 2.12 days / 22,648,333 of diesel.
So to not go backwards from 44.9 days supply we need 10 ships to come over the next 3 weeks.
Does that check out? Anyone now how likely that is?
Depends what they are carrying, what size and destination.
A Russian man has been convicted of bilking advertisers out of more than $7 million in payments for online ads that were never viewed by real humans.
The guy's operation secured agreements with advertising networks to display their ads on sites, then earned a commission for every ad that someone viewed. They created fake sites and programmed data centers to create fake users, to make it appear that real individuals were viewing the advertising.
In reality, much of the leading media companies - WPP, Omincron, IPG, Publicis - are selling fraudulent advertising. In the billions.
https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/7-million-digital-advertising-scam-rus…
Iceberg. Tip off.
Association of National Advertisers estimated ad fraud costing about USD120 billion annually worldwide.
Probably larger.
https://www.novatiq.com/digital-ad-fraud-statistics-every-brand-know/
One of the leading companies involved in programmatic - The Trade Desk - is down roughly 82–84% from its all‑time high in 16 months.
Victimless crime?
Aussie property expert Catherine Cashmore points to an 18-year boom-and-bust property cycle that could be unwinding in 2026. The Aussie Ponzi unwinding would be disastrous for Aotearoa.
Her cycle theory doesn't push any of my triggers.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/on-the-preci…
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