Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has raised most fixed rates. Details here. Xceda did too, late yesterday. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
BUSINESS RATE CHANGE
ANZ has raised its floating Working Capital Base Rate to 10.75% from 10.65%.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank trimmed its 6 month rate, and raised its 2-5 year TD rates. WBS also raised some rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HIGH GOING INTO THE FUEL SHOCK
Surprising some, annual CPI inflation landed at 3.1% in the March quarter, more than the anticipated 2.9$ rate, with electricity leading the way. But the rent rise was the lowest in 16 years. Petrol price rises started showing up in the March quarterly rate of +0.9%. Key is how the RBNZ will interpret this data. Financial markets are picking they will bring forward their rate hike ideas with benchmark bond yields rising on this news. The NZD rose as well, following the yield rise.
HEAVY GLUMNESS DESCENDS ON BUSINSSES
But business sentiment as measured by the NZIER quarterly survey of business opinion tanked in Q1-2026. That revealed a big drop in the number of firms expecting economic conditions to improve. Apparently the Middle East war poses risk to NZ’s fragile economic recovery, but there has only been a 'modest lift' in firms raising prices so far.
GOVERNMENT 'AUTOMATED DECISION MAKING'
The Minister of Justice has asked the Law Commission to undertake a review of legal issues related to the use of automated decision-making by government. ‘Automated decision-making’ refers to the use of digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, to assist decision-making processes. At present, New Zealand does not have overarching law, standards or guidance specifically addressing how government agencies should use automated decision-making in a legally compliant and consistent manner.
100 MLN IS JUST THE START
New data released today by anti-scam solutions provider, GetVerified, reveals a significant shift in payment behaviour. Since the rollout of the Confirmation of Payee account verification service across New Zealand banks, nearly 20% of users report the service has helped them avoid a misdirected payment or a potential scam. With almost 100 million transactions processed since the service was embedded into banking journeys last year, the GetVerified survey data suggests that around 20 million payments were paused or corrected by New Zealanders who “took a sec to check.” Now they are extending the service into businesses, at a time when fraud and scams are becoming harder to detect. They are pushing for businesses to use account verification to clean their data - before it's time to make a payment.
NZX50 SOFTISH AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1% so far today. That is after a good opening that it hasn't been able to sustain. It is heading for a -0.9% weekly dip. It is down -3.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +9.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.3% again so far today. Mainfreight, Ryman, Precinct and Freightways advance while Fletcher, Infratil, Heartland and Turners fall away.
A FEW MORE TRACTORS
Perhaps in an early sign of returning confidence on the farm, more than 200 new tractors were sold & registered in March, the most since 2022. But it was still well below the 243 sold in March 2018.
SWAP RATES RISE, EVERYONE ELSE DIPS
Wholesale swap rates are likely higher today by about +5 bps across the curve on the expectation that higher inflation will bring a strong, earlier reaction from th RBNZ. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.54% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.92%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -2 bps at 2.38% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.67%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -8 bps at 4.60%. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.25%.
EQUITIES LITTLE-CHANGED, EXCEPT TOKYO
The local equity market has dipped -0.2% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is also down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Tuesday up +1.3% in its initial trade. Hong Kong up +0.1% and Shanghai has opened down -0.2%. Singapore has risen by +0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday trade the S&P500 down a net -0.2%.
OIL PRICES DIVERGE
American oil prices have fallen -US$2.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$86.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$95/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS RISE
There have been few trades today on the secondary market, with the price still at $49/NZU but that is its highest since early November 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is marginally firmer at US$4805/oz, up +US$10 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$79/oz and down -US$1.
NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps against the USD, now just over 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just on 62.5 and up +30 bps from yesterday at this time.
BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is now at US$75,558 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.7%.
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5 Comments
Usual slow grind then. No boom, no doom.
US to refund $166 billion in tariffs after Supreme Court ruling. Howard Lutnick was the architect of the tariff policy. He pushed Trump to impose them. He fought against officials who wanted to limit them.
Lutnick left Cantor Fitzgerald to his sons and transferred his equity into a trust benefiting them. Cantor Fitzgerald was buying tariff refund claims from companies at 20 to 30 cents on the dollar. The firm told clients it had "capacity to trade up to several hundred million" in these claims. They confirmed at least one $10 million trade was already executed as of July 2025. They said they expected that number to "balloon in the coming weeks." That was 9 months ago. Today those claims are worth 100 cents on the dollar. The refund portal is live, $166 billion in refunds are being processed.
https://fortune.com/2026/03/07/winners-supreme-court-tariff-ruling-hedg…
The supreme court is refunding all tariff money back to corporations - the same corporations that didn’t pay a single cent of those tariffs to begin with.They passed every dollar directly to the US people through higher prices on everything. People went to the store and paid more for groceries, clothes, car parts....for literally everything.
That money came out of people's pockets, not the corporations, but they get the refund. The corporations who used the tariffs as an excuse to raise prices even higher than the tariff itself and pocket the difference.
The American people funded the tariffs. The corporations profited off the tariffs. And now the corporations get a refund on money they never spent in the first place. And nobody in Washington thinks the people who actually paid should get the money back.
Not a single politician or bureaucrat has even suggested it.
A bit like finding GST illegal and then giving it back to the businesses that on-charged it to the customers.
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