Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised some fixed rates. But they were modest changes and left their carded rates below ANZ, Westpac and Kiwibank. Details here. Unity Money also changed their fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
THE RATE CHANGE DRIVERS
How the recent fixed home loan rate increases stand compared to recent wholesale swap rates, is reviewed here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised some TD rates from 9 months & longer. SBS Bank has raised its 18 month and 2 year TD rates too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
PRODUCTIVITY UPDATE I
Although it is a year old, for the "measured sector" in the year ended March 2025, labour productivity rose +0.8%, multifactor productivity fell -0.9%, and that was because capital productivity fell -3.0% in that year, according to the latest StatsNZ update. The "measured sector" covers about 80% of economic activity (ie GDP) excluding areas like industries like "public administration, education, and healthcare". To be 'measured" we needs to record output independently from input, and those excluded sectors don't provide that. The drop in capital productivity was because capital inputs increased +1.5% in 2025, while output declined -1.5%. Why "invest" in capital if output is going to be worse?
PRODUCTIVITY II
We measure overall labour productivity in a crude way, but up to the end of December 2025. Our crude measure is the relationship between real GDP (expenditure basis) and total hours worked (both as reported by StatsNZ). This review saw labour productivity up +1.3% in calendar 2025. (For the year to March 2025, matching the period Stats NZ reported in the prior item, we saw our crude measure at +0.4%.) We have charted this alternative monitoring here.
MORE CREDIT CARD SPENDING
At $4.14 bln in March 2026, billings on locally issued credit cards are rising. Even though it is likely just being driven by higher fuel costs and related inflated purchases, it is the best in a while. And for the year to march it is up +2.4% and the highest such gain in 28 months.
NO STRESS SIGNS YET
Related credit card data isn't yet showing any special signs of debt-stress. This data is lagged one month and it did rise from January, but that is all within the normal seasonal pattern and the overall levels are still at or near series lows
LOSE-LOSE FOR SUCKERS
In one of her final projects before leaving Parliament, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden is shepherding a law change to make it easier for international online gambling sites to harvest profits from vulnerable locals. The 'payoffs for New Zealand' is that the Government will clip the tax ticket too. Seems naive to think that these international sharks will actually report profits here to be taxed. They need only look at Visa and Mastercard (not to mention MAG7) on how they can be avoided. (Yes, I know, it is a very difficult area. But 'legalising' more gambling opportunities here by international shysters seems such a retrograde step. And I am prepared to wager that in fact very little tax will get collected.)
NZX50 LOWER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% so far today. It is heading for a -1.4% weekly dip. It is down -3.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +7.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down- 1.8% so far today. Ryman, SkyTV, Summerset, and Precinct top the gainers, while Gentrack, Kathmandu, Tourism Holdings, and SkyCity casino are the big losers.
HEARTLAND SAYS PROFIT FORECAST ON TRACK, EV LENDING RISES
Heartland Group Holdings says it's on track for June-year profit of at least $85 mln and return on equity of at least 7%. Heartland says it's closely monitoring potential impacts on customer demand and credit quality stemming from uncertainty in the Middle East, and its EV lending volumes in March were three times higher than the monthly average in its financial year to date.
R&D? - MEH
StatsNZ released the results of its survey on "research & development". They said in 2025, business R&D expenditure was $4.1 bln (up +0.4% from 2024). The most common reasons cited for having a R&D program were ‘to maintain position in the market’ (31% and ‘to gain entry into new markets’ (31%)..Nationally only 2265 businesses said they did R&D and on average they spent $1.8 mln in the 2025 year. 19,000 staff worked on R&D projects FTEs), a fall of more than -5% from 2024 (about -1050 fewer people involved), and R&D as a share of GDP was an unusually low 0.95%. These are results the current Government should be embarrassed about - but they probably don't care.
STRONG BIDDING
More than $1.65 bln in 103 bids were received for the three NZGB maturities on offer today, worth $450 mln. Yields were marginally higher than those at the equivalent prior tenders.
VENISON PRICES INCH UP AGAIN
If you are a deer farmer, you will know that livestock prices paid by processors has been stable for a long time (unchanged for two months). But their may be light ahead, with one major processor offering an additional +10c/kg. That will make this farmgate price up +16% from this time last year.
AUSTRALIA EXANDING
In Australia, their S&P Global PMI tracking shows their economy expanding again in April after the surprise March contraction. Their factory PMI is back expanding at a most pace (51.0) while their services sector is back at a steady state (50.3) after the notable March contraction. They noted rising cost pressures however.
JAPAN EXPANDING
There were 'flash' April PMIs out in Japan as well today and their factory sector is strengthening (54.9 and a four year high) while their services sector's expansion cooled somewhat (51.2). This report also noted intensified cost pressures.
SOUTH KOREA EXPANDING
South Korea reported its Q1-2025 GDP rise at +3.6% from the equivalent 2025 quarter. This was the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2021 and exceeded forecasts of +2.7%.
SWAP RATES RISE YET AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are likely firmer yet again today by about +4 bps across the curve on the building expectation that higher inflation will bring a strong, earlier reaction from the RBNZ. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +4 bps at 2.58% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 5.00%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.39% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate up +5 bps at 4.67%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.32%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market has fallen another -0.4% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday down -1.1% in its initial trade. Hong Kong down -0.9% and Shanghai has opened down -0.3%. Singapore has fallen by -0.9% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade the S&P500 up +1.0% in a relief rally from the latest Trump TACO.
OIL PRICES RISE AGAIN
American oil prices have risen +US$5.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same +US$5.50 at just on US$104/bbl.
CARBON PRICE RISES ON RISING DEMAND
There have been more good trades today on the secondary market, and the price has hit $50/NZU, its highest since early November 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4700/oz, down another -US$53 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$72/oz and down another -US$2.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps against the USD, now just on 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.4 and down -10 bps from yesterday at this time.
BITCOIN RISES YET AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$78,030 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%.
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8 Comments
Yeh ok, 1yr swaps ripping higher and kiwi softer, so yep real headwinds there. But if this is meant to be the next housing leg down, youd expect it to start showing up in clearance rates, stock, turnover, arrears etc soon enough. Until then its another one to file under “definitely happening soon”.
Patience, young grasshopper.
Are you still patiently waiting for the crash Bernard Hickey called ~20 years ago?
Bernard who?
But master, what would you expect to soften first, clearance rates, listings, arrears or prices?
With patience we will see won’t we!
Volume has been constipated, since the crash was apparent, from late 2022.
Market Clearance has been proven by the "must sell" recent sales.
These Clearance rates are -200 to -300k below the more common, slow mover, 60 to 100day sticky price vendor (moonbeam price wanters).
Often however, they simply take it off the market, to relist when market brightens. Yet the sun only becomes more dim, in the multiyear NZ housing crashpalace we live in.
Interest rates bolting up, as they are now and banks pressing on the chest of stressed spruikuvestors, will be the metamucil the market needs, to knock the next -300k off, to see true, mark to market happen.
Appreciate the gastro update, but a few must-sell discounts aint broad market repricing. So if rates ripping higher are the catalyst, should start showing up in wider clearance rates, inventory and sale prices soon enough then huh?
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