A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; banks move retail rates up, household living cost rises disproportionate, FHB affordability stops improving, fuel update, swaps ease back, NZD down, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB raised most fixed rates today. More here. Heartland Bank raised its floating rates by +50 bps today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB also raised TD rates today, but for few of the terms that savers prefer. Ditto TSB. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE HIGH COST OF BEING POOR
The March 2026 household living cost indexes were released today, showing an average annual rate of just 2.1% in the year to March. This is well below the March CPI data of 3.1%. The reason for the difference largely relates to whether you have a mortgage. Over the year this cost fell sharply (although it is back rising again). If you are a beneficiary your household living costs rose +2.8%. For pensioners it was +3.9%. And if you were on very low incomes (quintile 1), it was 3.6%. But if you were in the highest income group (quintile 5), it was only 0.8%.

NOT QUITE AS EASY
First home buyers are being hit by newly rising mortgage rates and higher prices at the bottom of the housing market. That has seen affordability 'worsen' for these buyers in March. Still, everywhere is still affordable with a 10% deposit except in Queenstown, Porirua, Tauranga and most of Auckland. If you have a 20% deposit, everywhere is affordable except Queenstown and Auckland's North Shore for first home buyers.

BACK IN RETREAT MODE (?)
ANZ now says the housing market is now facing into a set of formidable challenges. The fuel price shock has weakened the outlook for economic growth and is pushing up inflation. "We see the OCR rising three times this year, starting in July, as the RBNZ worries about inflation pressures spreading. There is also uncertainty from the election, including the prospect of a potential capital gains tax. Given these headwinds, we think house prices are likely to fall slightly – we continue to pencil in a -2% decline over 2026."

DAIRY PRICES HOLD
There was another dairy Pulse auction early this morning, but this one brought few changes from the prior week's full event. Prices for butter, SMP and WMP were little-changed. But the AMF price did fall -4.4% to its lowest of the year so far.

PAYMARK PROFIT DROPS, DIVIDEND RISES
Paymark's 2025 calendar year profit fell almost -$2 mln, or 12%, to $14.7 mln as revenue fell and expenses rose. Earlier this month Australia's Cuscal announced it's buying Paymark from its French parent company Worldline. The deal's expected to be completed by the end of June. Paymark paid $15 mln in dividends in 2025, up $1 mln year-on-year.

FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation is seems stable.

STILL WELL AHEAD & STAYING AHEAD
Homeowners spend $4.75 bln in interest on their mortgages in Q1-2026. This was the lowest quarterly amount since September 2023, down -18% from the recent peak in the December 2024 quarter. The same data shows 'excess payments' (that is the extra payments over the scheduled contract requirements) is still running about 60% above the scheduled levels.

+10% MORE SPIKES BANK CHANGE
The unusual rush to change banks we noted in December has subsided. It has reverted to about 24% of all (non-top-up) loans, the monthly level it has been 'normal' since early 2024. The average value of a mortgage being shifted between banks is now $678,000, while the average value of all new-purchase home loans is now $610,750. 

NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed so far today. It is heading for a -1.4% weekly dip. It is down -4.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +6.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +2.2% so far today. F&P Healthcare, Napier Port, Precinct, and Fletchers lead Wednesday’s modest gains, as Kathmandu, Serko, Ryman, and NZX are the main decliners.

SATELITTE-CONTROLLED CATTLE
Local tech icon Halter said it has launched of direct-to-satellite technology for its smart collars for beef cattle, through a world-first solution in partnership with One NZ Satellite (powered by Starlink). The technology makes Halter the first company in the world to offer virtual fencing via satellite - an unlock for beef farms previously out of reach due to connectivity limitations, particularly for regions like Central Otago, Gisborne, and Southland’s high country.

AUSSIE INFLATION SURGE
In Australia, they reported that inflation jumped +4.6% in March, driven by petrol (+8.9%), housing (+6.5%), and food (+3.1%). This was their biggest rise since September 2023. Despite the jump, it was less than analyst expectations of a +4.8% rise. The rise in March from February was +1.1%.

POISED?
It is looking increasingly likely that the RBA will hike rates on Tuesday, May 5. That would probably take their policy rate back up to 4.35% and its highest since December 2024. Financial markets have priced in +20 bps so far. But if they do in fact move, that would be out of step with most other major central banks. Others like the US Federal Reserve to the ECB, to the Bank of England are poised to hold interest rates on Thursday and Friday this week, following the Bank of Japan who sat pat yesterday. A rise could also ignite the Australian dollar. There will be spillover impacts on New Zealand from the RBA decision. Markets have priced in +15 bps of a 25 bps move here. A sharply higher exchange rate will make imports less costly, restraining local inflation. So there could be this upside for a rate hike.

FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION RISES - MODESTLY
Staying in Australia, new data reveals that as at 30 June 2025, Australia’s population included 8.8 million people who were born overseas, or 32%. Ten years ago that proportion was 28.3%. There were 1,156,000 born in the UK, 971.000 born in India. There are 732,000 born in China, and 638,000 born in New Zealand. As that same date, Australian born residents were 18.8 mln.

SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates are likely softer today, but probably only a brief hesitation. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +3 bps at 2.62% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 5.01%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.76%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.46% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.73%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate up +5 bps at 4.74%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from this time yesterday at 4.35%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is little-changed in Wednesday day trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is on holiday today (Showa Day). Hong Kong up +1.2% and Shanghai has opened up +0.4%. Singapore has dropped -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade the S&P500 down -0.5%.

OIL PRICES RISE AGAIN
American oil prices have risen +US$2 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$99.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$1.50 at just on US$111/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There has been more activity and bigger trades trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held $50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4593/oz, down another -US$74 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$73.50/oz and down -US$1/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps against the USD, now just on 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -30 bps at 50.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62 and down -40 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN DIPS TOO
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,498 and down -0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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