Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank increased its 1 year TD rate by +5 bps to 3.80%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GRINGING HALT
The latest Retail Radar retail industry report shows while retailers were buoyed by positive sales and rising consumer confidence at the end of 2025 and the first few months of 2026, the situation in the Middle East has put a sudden stop to that trend. Fear of sharply higher freight costs when demand is falling is palpable.
BNZ PROFIT FALLS
BNZ's March half-year profit tumbled 38%, or $301 million, to $494 million. Most of the drop was due to a one-off reduction in the bank's capitalised software assets. Without that BNZ says its profit was down $48 million, with revenue largely flat and expenses up 4%. The bank lifted credit impairment provisioning by $20 million to $995 million. Home lending rose 7% and business lending was up 2%, with deposits rising 5%.
LATER & FEWER
We are marrying later. In 2025, the median age at first marriage or civil union was 30.5 years for women and 31.6 years for men, compared with 28.2 and 30.1 years, respectively, in 2005. In 1971, when marriage rates peaked, the median age at first marriage was 20.8 years for women and 23.0 years for men. The overall marriage rate (including the very small number of Civil Unions) is declining, a trend that started in 1971 and shows no sign of letting up. The divorcee rate has been stable for the past ten years, but from a longer perspective, has been declining since 1983.
STOBO GOES
FMA Chair Craig Stobo’s offer of resignation, following the completion of an independent review into his conduct, has been accepted. The review had four findings. There was no evidence of an inappropriate relationship between Stobo and a former staff member; Stobo acted reasonably in disclosing a governance-related interest and later in agreeing to resign from it, but he should not have delayed it for as long as he did; Stobo’s applications for FMA travel were not inappropriate. However, aspects of Stobo’s public commentary did not meet the standards of political neutrality expected of the Chair of an independent Crown entity and financial markets regulator.
NZX50 LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1% so far today. But it is up +1.2% from a week ago. It is down -4.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% so far today. There are 36 gainers so far today led by Chorus (+1.8%), Gentrack (+0.9%), Hallensteins (+0.9%) and Auckland Airport (+0.8%). There are 44 decliners and they are led by a2 Milk (-14.2% on a US recall of a "small volume" of Synlait-produced product for a line that was discontinued in the US in December 2025), Summerset (-2.9%), Ryman (-2.3%) and Investor (-1.9%).
HYDRO SITUATION UPDATE
North Island hydro storage is currently well above normal, while South Island storage is about normal. Here is the Transpower data. Meanwhile Auckland water storage is almost at capacity (98%), well above the normal level for this time of year (73%).
SAVING LOCAL GAS PRODUCTION
According to one of the Taranaki off-shore gas permit holders (Horizon), this JV is assessing drilling new gas wells in the area with a decision due in Q4-2026, but likely before the election while supportive politicians are in office (Share Jones).
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation is seems stable.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 34.9 | 27.1 | 31.4 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 9 | 11.7 | 22.0 | 27.3 |
| Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026 | 12 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 58.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 36.4 | 27.5 | 31.8 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 4 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 6 | 9.3 | 14.1 | 15.6 |
| Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 49.1 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 36.1 | 21.9 | 24.9 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 6 | 11.4 | 13.7 | 12.5 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 4 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 8.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026 | 10 | 51.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026 | 11 | 51.2 | 41.6 | 47.4 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 44.8 | 51.4 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 12 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47.0 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 14 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 14 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 16 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 16 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 15 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
STILL-HIGH INFLATION PRESSUE
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's Inflation Gauge tracking reported a +0.6% rise from March to be 4.3% higher than a year ago. The April result was lower than the record high monthly increase at +1.3% in March, and compares with the official March monthly annual rise of 4.6%. Despite the easing, this rate remains very high and likely well above what the RBA will be comfortable with. The RBA is widely expected to rate it policy rate to 4.35% tomorrow.
FOUR YEAR HIGH
In South Korea, we got another very good factory PMI for April. The S&P Global version rose to 53.6 in April from 52.6 in March, the strongest expansion since February 2022. But the scramble for more orders, and production is to get ahead of incoming inflation pressure. In fact, input costs and output price inflation surged to its highest in the 22-year history of this monitoring.
DITTO TAIWAN
In Taiwan, the same scramble is underway, with production and sales rising sharply as firms look to stockpile. That drove their factory PMI to new momentum and a five year high.
SWAP RATES MARGINALLY SOFTER
Wholesale swap rates have likely turned marginally lower today and that follows Aussie shifts. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 2.61% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 5.00%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.50% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.69%, down -3 bps from this morning. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate down -4 bps at 4.69%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from this morning, now at 4.38%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is down -0.2% in Monday day trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is closed for Golden Week. Hong Kong is up +2.0% but Shanghai is still on holiday today. Singapore is up +0.7% at its open. Wall Street futures suggest the S&P500 will open up +0.5% tomorrow in its Monday trade..
OIL PRICES HOLD HIGH
American oil prices held from this morning with the WTI benchmark now just on US$102/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just on US$108/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRM
There have been only tiny trades today on the secondary market, but the price has risen to $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is marginally lower at US$4609/oz, down -US$9 from this morning. Silver is now just over US$75.50/oz and up +50 USc.
NZD RISES STRONGLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning against the USD, now just on 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.4 and up +10 bps from this morning's open.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$80,113 and up +2.5% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.
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13 Comments
The S&P 500 dividend yield just hit an all-time low of 1.08%, going back to the 1800s. The prior low was 1.1% in 2000.
There are now "dividend" mutual funds with negative yields (their expense ratios are higher than their dividend yields).
Stock buybacks have exceeded dividends since the late 1990s, but nearly all stock funds still focus solely on dividends
Warren Buffett's been talking about this more than anyone for decades.
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/table/by-year
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mebanefaber_the-sp-500-dividend-yield-ju…
The stock price of Caterpillar - the 100-year-old bulldozer company - is up 45x since the dot com bubble. And 10x'd in 10 years. Up 185% in past 12 months.
Every AI data center being built needs massive uninterrupted power. Caterpillar makes the generators, engines and turbines that supply both primary and backup power to those facilities. Power generation revenue jumped 41% to $2.82 billion, with most of that growth directly linked to data center demand.
Caterpillar just reported Q1 2026 revenue of $17.4 billion, up 22% year over year, crushing Wall Street estimates of $16.5 billion. EPS came in at $5.54 against an estimate of $4.63.
https://www.investopedia.com/the-reason-caterpillar-s-stock-is-priced-f…
"Caterpillar just reported Q1 2026 revenue of $17.4 billion, up 22% year over year".
Very good, but very much lower than the its share price being up 185% over the past 12 months.
Correct Dr Y. But what's your point? A share price can rise much more than a company’s revenue over 12 months because investors are repricing future cash flows and are often willing to pay a higher earnings or sales multiple, not just for current revenue growth.
"...investors are repricing future cash flows"
Ya think?...in most instances they are following the crowd and 'estimated future earnings " have SFA to do with it....its not called a casino for no reason.
Plenty to like. Not just on financials. We can't be grizzled cynics all the time.
Would be happier with Caterpillar in a portfolio than Ryman, My Food Bag, CBA any day of the week.
Different strokes for different folks.
The MOMO trade is great, as long as you are the right side of it. Like a ponzi, get in early and do not be greedy.
Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management (which oversees approximately $200-224 billion in assets), has warned investors to expect dramatically lower returns from the S&P 500 over the next decade. While he hasn't explicitly stated "zero through 2036," his forecast is similarly pessimistic: he predicts "low single-digit" annual returns - potentially 0-2% per year - over the next 10 years, before accounting for inflation.
This forecast represents a stark departure from the S&P 500's century-long average of approx 10% annual returns. After inflation, Marks' projection suggests investors could experience negative real returns, potentially making this a "lost decade" similar to the 2000s following the dot-com bubble.
On a positive note, Marks believes significant dispersion in asset performance will create opportunities for active stock selection. He advocates contrarian investing in 2026, particularly in sectors people currently "hate" rather than love.
Mr B does not believe now is the time (yet to buy) he thinks recent pullbacks are just a flesh wound... so the fat lady is not warmed up, this is not the money shot... patience grasshopper
It allows Berkshire to act when others cannot, to buy high-quality assets at distressed prices when fear forces indiscriminate selling. That moment has not arrived.
Buffett has historically made his biggest moves during genuine market distress. Not 10% slumps, but events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid crash — moments when liquidity dried up and asset prices disconnected from underlying value. That is what he is waiting for.
A WSJ analysis found 67% of Polymarket profits goes to just 0.1% of accounts, while most traders are in the red. Most Kalshi users also lose money.
Why is this?
In traditional gambling, bookmakers set the odds, take in the bets and pay off the winners. In prediction markets, there is no “house,” and users instead trade with other users. The platforms themselves take in fees on the trades, which can vary based on the price of the contracts a user buys, the type of market and other factors.
Completely different ballgame, bur fascinating. And the psychology is interesting - a large number of casual traders just bet “yes” on what they hope will happen. Quite different what you see in crypto or a stock exchange where people are trading securities.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits…
one has to believe the 0.1% knew what was going to happen next... handy when you are betting, or investing.
The US02Y is spiking right now. Up 11%
Click the 1 day chart view: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-US02Y/?timeframe=LASTSESSION
look at the US30Y on a 5year plus timeframe
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