Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac has raised two fixed rates, including their six month and 3 year rates. Bank of China raised fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac has added +10 bps to their 9 and 12 month TD rates. Bank of China changed TD rates as well. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
"HIGH ENERGY COSTS CONTINUE TO WEIGH ON THE OUTLOOK"
In an economic review of the local economy, the OECD says we have a gradual recovery underway, but global turbulence, unemployment, 'subdued' net migration and high electricity prices are impacting momentum. They point that 'electricity prices are structurally too high’. More here (page 48).
NO RENT INFLATION
Average rents are flat in Auckland, still declining in Wellington, Realestate.co.nz says. The national rental market is stable after a busy summer season, they say based on their asking-rent data.
SEYMOUR CHAMPIONS WOKE ENERGY
"Installation of solar panels takes months; we are conducting a Sector Review into the installation of residential and small to medium scale solar, with the aim of making installation in New Zealand the simplest in the developed world", Regulation Minister David Seymour says.
NZX50 RISES AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.9% so far today. And it is up +2.7% from a week ago. It is down -2.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +6.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.2% so far today. Gentrack, EBOS, Infratil and Scales lead the NZX50 gains as Tourism Holdings, SkyCity casino, Argosy and Turners decline.
VERY SHORT, BUT SAFE
Customer deposits at banks are held in very short terms. As at March, only 4.6% of those deposits where for terms on one year or longer. As low as that may seem, it is actually the highest it has been since 2018. For six months or longer, it is only 13.2%. "Borrowing short" and "lending long" (mortgages) is a very risky position to be in. Fortunately all banks have professional treasury functions active in dealing with this risk via hedging and swaps. That eliminates the loss risk, but it also eliminates almost all the upside risk as well.
POPULAR AGAIN, YIELDS DIPPED SLIGHTLY
144 bids were received in today's NZGB bond tender for three maturities for the $450 mln on offer. These bids totaled almost $1.9 bln and only 41 of those bids were accepted. Yields dipped slightly from the equivalent bond offers three weeks ago.
TOP CHAIR
New Zealand Ambassador Clare Kelly is to become the Chair of the World Trade Organisation General Council. It is only the second time a New Zealander has chaired the General Council, which is the highest-level WTO decision-making body in Geneva
BACK TO THE FUTURE NON-TRANSPARENCY
We have been given a lesson in transparency recently. The Dawn Meats bailout of Alliance Group may have saved their shareholder farmers. But the cost will be that Dawn/Alliance offers for livestock are going to be very hard to compare from now on. Based on instructions from Dublin, there are no more Schedules. Their offers will only come from their buyers on a private conversation basis. This will make it harder to assess how competitive the Dawn/Alliance offer is. Shopping around will now require much more effort. There will be increasing numbers of unhappy neighbours.
LIVESTOCK PRICES MOVING UP
This is worth noting because there has been a move up in livestock prices in the past week (and Dawn/Alliance will be hoping you don't notice). Beef prices are up +25-35c/kg (+3-4%), steer prices are up, venison prices are up again, and lamb prices are up +2.5-3%.
M&A ACTIVITY STILL CHUGGING ALONG
A PwC review of M&A activity in Q1-2026 finds a steady level of deals. There were 49 deals were announced, up 36% from 36 deals in Q1 2025 and unchanged from Q4 2025. Trade buyers continued to dominate deal activity, accounting for 44 of the 49 transactions (90%). Private equity participation meanwhile, remained consistent, with involvement in four transactions in both Q1 2026 and the previous quarter. Overseas buyers accounted for 59% of deals, highlighting continued international interest in New Zealand businesses. Australia and the United States led this offshore interest, participating in 10 and six deals respectively. The Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) sector was the most active with 14 deals, followed by the Business Services with eight.
AML INVESTIGATION
And staying in Australia, major betting company Tabcorp has said today that AUSTRAC is investigating it over "a number of serious concerns with Tabcorp’s ability to effectively identify, mitigate and manage its money laundering / terrorism financing (ML/TF) risks."
SOCIALISING THE COST INCREASES, FOR AI
Australian energy supplier is noting that based on projects currently in development, data center demand could exceed Australian Energy Market Operator’s forecasts. AI data center pressure will give them an energy cost headache too, one everyone will bear, not just the AI industry causing the problem. This is a public policy problem because Big Tech is famous for avoiding paying taxes, while expecting communities to invest in the infrastructure they need.
SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates will probably be lower today, possibly by about -3 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm which will be after the RBA decision is known. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.62% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.92%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.76%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -2 bps at 2.48% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.65%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate up +1 bp at 4.66%. The UST 10yr yield is down -6 bps from yesterday, now at 4.35%.
EQUITIES ALL HIGHER
The local equity market is up +0.8% in Thursday day trade so far. The ASX200 is also up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up a massive +5.7% on its return from holiday. Hong Kong is up +1.3% and Shanghai is up +0.2% today. Singapore is also up +0.2% at its open. Wall Street closed with the S&P500 up +1.4% in Wednesday trade.
OIL PRICES FALL BACK FURTHER
American oil prices have fallen another -US$5 with the WTI benchmark now just on US$95.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$6.50 at just under US$102/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $54/NZU, still its highest since late October 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HIGHER
In early Asian trade, gold is higher at US$4708/oz, up +US$67 from this this time yesterday. Silver is now just under US$78oz and up another +US$2.50/oz.
NZD UP AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up another +20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.9 and up +20 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,128 and down -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.
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4 Comments
Dawn in Dublin puts something of a rat amongst the chickens by no longer offering the long standing schedule system for stock procurement. That system grew readily enough from the volume trade and largely was calculated by what was perceived as net market return less cost of processing etc to arrive at what the farmer was paid but in reality that last portion was set more or less at what could be got away with. To illustrate that, some may recall that there was a sweeping investigation in the mid 1990’s by the Commerce Commission that exposed a degree of collusion amongst some of the larger North Island processors with resultant fines levied by the High Court. Oddly enough back then in Hawke’s Bay there had been Dawn Meats which had by then been absorbed into one of the offending companies.
Alliance/Dawn meats
I wonder if farmers would have been as quick to ditch the tiny bit of control they had over the industry, with the rosier outlook for product?
"Their offers will only come from their buyers on a private conversation basis."
Guess I'd be ringing around the neighbours before the agent turns up.
How are the kids doing using Robinhood to invest and save themselves from financial and inflation despair?
Not very well it appears.
They came up with more than 15% in negative alpha pa per annum between 2020 and 2025 for more sophisticated investors to harvest - benchmarked against a fitted mix of SPX/QQQ/BTC.
The real cost of access to zero-commission platforms for retail investors is explained by behavior. These investors can’t help themselves, trade way too much and don’t seem to have market timing ability. Maybe they’re just having a bit of fun but it seems like an expensive pastime.
The money was not lost. It was simply transferred to more sophisticated investors. The stand-in average investor —averaged across all investors— just holds the market and realizes zero alpha because she earns the market excess return and her holdings have a beta of one. Put differently, value-weighted alphas always sum to zero across all investors. Gekko was right.
"Installation of solar panels takes months"
Can't remember it taking months when we installed ours? As soon as we reached the top of the contractors list, they were on the roof and connected.
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