A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; a flurry of negative data, March GST collections point to declining activity, FPH knocked about, carbon market activity picks up, swaps firm, NZD up, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The only change today is a tiny +5 bps that the Cooperative Bank added to their six month TD, taking it to 3.50%. That matches Kiwibank for that term, but is marginally higher than the four big Aussie banks. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STALLED
Housing values were as flat as a millpond in April, according to the QV House Price Index. QV says the housing market is 'in a holding pattern'.

DECLINING I
ANZ said its April Truckometer monitoring revealed that their light traffic index fell -1.7% in April from March to be only +2.4% ahead on a year-ago basis. That is a sharp retreat from the +3.7% year-ago gain at the end of 2025. They note that this is "a marked turn lower". Their heavy traffic index fell -1.2% in April from March but it never experienced 'recovery' gains earlier, so it is generally holding those earlier modest year-on-year gains

DECLINING II
The March Crown accounts will make for some uncomfortable reading even if the deficits are not getting any worse than signaled in the HYFEU (a low bar). That is because deep within this data, GST receipts are weakening fast. In fact, March 2026 GST revenue at $2.067 bln is now -4.4% lower than in March 2025, and even lower than the $2.085 bln in March 2024. This is a recent turn down, a signal that may indicate a disturbing economic track. These same accounts show that income taxes collected from individuals were up +7.1% from a year earlier, no doubt boosted by the stealth taxes of 'fiscal drag' as higher nominal incomes push more workers into higher tax brackets.

DECLINING III
Those same Crown accounts also reveal lower taxes collected from businesses, presumably because they are either earning less or now posting losses. For the nine months to March, taxes on company incomes were down -4.4% from the same period to March 2025, and down -4.0% from the nine months to March 2024. As more American tech giants and payment processors shelter their taxes in tax havens, those companies who are doing the right thing are left carrying a heavier load.

MIXED PICTURE
The March 2026 ready mixed concrete data is not really helping the down-mood today. Apart from some good gains in the South Island, the rest of the country is pouring less into projects that need concrete. The North Island makes up 70% of this market and the metro area of Auckland used -6.2% less concrete in the March quarter than a year ago, the Wellington metro area -2.3% less. It is spotty elsewhere and the volumes tend not to be significant.

ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSITIVES
Just so you know, we dislike reporting economic data that is consistently negative. We ask readers to point us to economic activity that is growing or rising, especially for activity that can have a significant influence on the overall economy.

COMPETITION LANDSCAPE
The Commerce Commission has been reviewing the state of competition over the past few decades. They conclude that there is slightly reduced concentration across industries. This trend has occurred consistently over time, accelerating after the global financial crisis (GFC). This implies competition is improving. They also note business dynamism has generally declined. Rates of business entry and exit fell materially, and new entrants gained less early traction. This implies competition is declining. And they see some essential industries facing limited competitive pressure, meaning weaknesses can ripple across the wider economy, especially when these industries are ‘upstream’ of other industries that rely on them. Other industries are improving, including rental, hiring and real estate services, and parts of the broader services sector.

DO THE QUIZ
Our quiz is updated this week and ready to challenge you, and see how you do compared with the many hundreds of other readers doing it too.

NZX50 HIT HARD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.6% so far today, heading for a weekly dip of -0.3%. It is down -4.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +2.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down another very sharp -3.3% so far today, on top of yesterday's dip, (although to be fair after our comment yesterday their share price made a good partial recovery). There are only 28 gainers today, led by Property for Industry (+2.1%), Gentrack (+1.2%), NZX (+1.1%) and Kiwi Property (+1.1%). But there are 53 decliners, led by F&P Healthcare (-3.3%), a2 Milk (-3.9%), The Warehouse (-3.9%), and Chorus (-2.9%). It is tough for most majors today.

KNOCKED ABOUT
Just as the Trump Gulf War started, the Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) share price peaked at $41.23 (March 2, 2026) at its record high. Since then it has dropped -18%, and is now at its lowest in more than a year. It is a tough run for our largest listed company. They are due to announce their full year results to March 2026 on May 26 when they will give an update on current conditions. Markets aren't expecting much positive.

COSTS SURGE, ACTIVITY COOLING QUICKLY
Accelerating cost pressures are squeezing margins and demand is cooling, with the latest NAB Monthly Business Survey signaling a tougher operating environment for Australian businesses. This April survey shows purchase cost growth lifted sharply to +4.5% in April, outpacing product price growth at +1.8%. Business conditions fell while confidence marginally but it is still deeply negative (in fact, its worst since the pandemic). Those surveyed reported that forward orders fell further in April to be down sharply since February and giving up all the gradual gains achieved over the past year. Only mining orders rose and to be fair these were outsized gains in that sector. (Tomorrow, we expect to get the Westpac consumer sentiment survey results.)

LATE NIGHT BLOCKBUSTER?
Staying in Australia, all eyes are on their Federal Budget announcement which is expected at 9:30pm NZT.

DOWN MORE THAN EXPECTED
Japanese household spending turned worryingly lower in March as inflation started to bite and their households turned risk-averse. They are saving more. Household spending there fell -2.9% in March, much more than the -1.8% drop in February and below the expected -1.3% retreat. This is the fourth straight decrease and the largest.

SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates will probably be firmer today, especially for the longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.64% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 5.02%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +6 bps at 2.55% today which we make as a 29 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.73%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -2 bps at 4.67%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps, now at 4.42%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is down -1.5% in Tuesday day trade so far. But the ASX200 is down only -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.6% at its open. Hong Kong is also up +0.6% but Shanghai is unchanged at its open today. Singapore is also unchanged at its open. Wall Street marked time today, but the S&P500 did manage a +0.2% gain in Monday trade.

OIL PRICES STAY UP
American oil prices have stayed up on the Trump tantrum, with the WTI benchmark still at just on US$99.50/bbl, but the international Brent price is up +US$4 to just over US$105/bbl.

CARBON PRICE DIPS AGAIN
There have been a good number of trades today on the secondary market, but the price has slipped another -$2 to $50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP
In early Asian trade, gold is higher at US$4731/oz, up +US$53 from this this time yesterday. Silver is now just under US$86.50oz and a very large leap from yesterday.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps as well at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.9 and up almost +20 bps from yesterday, aided by a good rise against the Japanese yen.

BITCOIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,219 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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