A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; tourism sector rising, house prices sag, migration picks up, gas reserves dive, eyes on supermarket 'specials', swaps dip, NZX dips, NZD dips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TOURISM SECTOR GROWS SOLIDLY
Driven by visiting Aussies, international visitor arrivals rose +11% in the three months to March from the same period a year ago, bringing arrivals growth in the full year to March 2026 up to +15%.

AUTUMN SAG
House prices and sales volumes both declined in April. The Auckland market is particularly soft, the REINZ April data shows.

MIGRATION FLOWS TURN MORE POSITIVE
Fewer New Zealanders are leaving the country and more migrants are arriving is pushing up migration-driven population growth, according to the March data released by StatsNZ today.

THE PROFESSIONALS BET RATES WILL RISE
Where are interest rates heading? We look at what the financial markets pricing future rate levels.

PRECIPITOUS DROP
Annual petroleum reserves data released today by MBIE shows as at the beginning of 2026 our natural gas proven plus probable (2P) reserves fell a massive -23% from last year to 731 PJ. That is its lowest level since recording began 20 years ago.

SHRINKING
Bank settlement balances are declining still, after they reached their $56.2 bln peak in December 2022. They were at $24.2 bln at the end of April 2026, their lowest since January 2021. But the fall from March of -$4.1 bln is the largest for any April month.

NZX50 SOFTER YET AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today, heading for a weekly dip of -1.9%. It is down -3.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +1.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up a mere +0.1% so far today, after the recent string of falls and it is now a weekly fall of -4.1%. Scales, Napier Port, Vista Group, and Vital Healthcare advance while a2 Milk, Air NZ, Summerset, and Turners decline.

LEAVING
Synlait's CEO Richard Wyeth has quit.

LOSING
AirNZ is getting hit hard by the high cost of jet fuel, hard than it expected just a two months ago.

STRONG BIDDING
127 bids were received today for the $450 mln NZ Government bond tenders with those bids worth $1.785 bln. Only 30 bids were accepted.

SHAM DISCOUNTS
In Australia, their competition regulator has prevailed in a case it brough against supermarket giant Coles claiming its discount claims were a sham. This judgement is sure to echo in New Zealand. The ACCC has a parallel case pending judgement against Woolworths.

RAISE MINIMUM WAGE CLAIM
Meanwhile the peak Australian labour union, the ACTU, has amended its claim for a minimum wage rise to +6% before the Fair Work Commission, taking the claimed rate to AU$26.45/hour (NZ$32.25). Obviously the change is in response to rising inflation.

SWAP RATES TURN LOWER
Wholesale swap rates will probably be softer today across the whole curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +4 bps at 2.70% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps at 5.02%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.60% today which we make as a new 29 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.75%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate up +4 bps at 4.75%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.46%.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market is down -0.3% in Thursday day trade so far. And the ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.3% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.6% but Shanghai is down -0.8% at its open today. Singapore is unchanged at its open. Wall Street ended today with the S&P500 up +0.6% in Wednesday trade.

OIL PRICES LITTLE-CHANGED
American oil prices have stayed up, with the WTI benchmark up +50 USc at just on US$101.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is down -50 USc at US$106/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have again been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4687/oz, down -US$4 from this this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$86.50oz and again little-changed from yesterday.

NZD FALLS
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.6 and down -30 bps from yesterday. To be fair, almost all of this retreat happened last night, and it did not kick on today

BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price is now at US$79,312 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modestat just on +/- 0.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».