Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank added +10 bps to its 2 year fixed rate today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank added +10 bps to its 1 year TD rate, taking it to 3.85%. They trimmed -5 bps from their six month rate, now 3.45%. General Finance has raised most of its term deposit rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SLUMP IN NEW ORDERS
The manufacturing sector is still expanding, but only just. The BNZ/Business NZ PMI was 50.5 in April, down from a downwardly revised 52.8 in March, the softest expansion since last September. New orders slumped to their lowest since May 2025 and is not great news for future activity.
INVESTORS LESS BULLISH
Investor confidence fell to 6%& in the March quarter, down five percentage points from the previous quarter after stabilising late last year, ASB’s Investor Confidence survey shows.
SUBSTANTIAL DOWNTURN
The number of new factories and industrial buildings being built is now at a record low, new analysis shows.
BENEFITS OUTWEIGH DETRIMENTS
The Commerce Commission has issued its final determination to authorise, with conditions, the New Zealand Banking Association’s application for it and a group of banks and other parties, to collectively negotiate with Evergreen International LLC (Armourguard) over cash-in-transit (CIT) services.
NOT UP QUITE AS MUCH AS FEARED
Petrol and diesel prices have certainly surged, confirmed by Statistics NZ’s latest figures showing petrol prices jumped +34% over 2 months, and diesel prices were up +95%. Meanwhile, the pace of food price increases slowed from +3.4% in March from a year ago, to +2.6% in April, also from a year ago. Rents were flat. Overall, these selected monthly price increases came in less aggressive that some analysts were expecting. They still see the pain of the flow through being felt in future months.
THE SUN SHINES ON WOOL AGAIN
Since September 2025, strong wool prices have been rising consistently, a complete contrast to the prior ten year trends. Helping is very restricted supply options, and the rise in cross-bred strong wool prices is now +75% from a year ago. More here.
RED MEAT PRICES SUPPORTED
Livestock prices are rising too, across a number of processors. Supporting this is China pricing which remains steady, with mutton holding firm. Continued tight global supply is helping to support prices despite ongoing uncertainty in the global economy. In contrast, US beef prices have faced downward pressure as larger volumes of competitively priced South American beef enter the market. As pricing in the US eases, China is emerging as a more attractive destination for selected boneless beef cuts, with buyers seeking to secure supply for the latter half of the year.
IT IS NOW ALL VOLUNTARY
The Government is hoping that by setting minimum standards for carbon market offers will bring more demand to the carbon offset industry, and has now codified those standards in its "Guidance for Voluntary Climate Change Mitigation".
NZX50 FALLS YET AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.6% so far today, heading for a weekly fall of -1.8%. It is down -4.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +0.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is taking a hammering again today, down -4.3% from yesterday to be down 7.8% over the past five days. Gentrack, Property for Industry, Vulcan Steel, and Investore Property all rose today while F&P Healthcare, Vista Group, Serko, and Heartland were the main decliners.
RETAIL GROWTH STALLS IN NOMINAL TERMS, TOUGH IN INFLATION-ADJUSTED TERMS
The Warehouse said its same-store sales were flat for its quarter ending the end of April, compared to the same period a year earlier.
TRANSPARENT
We were looking for something else and stumbled on this. To get lawyers to want to be judges, you have to pay them well enough for them to give up their commercial legal practice. See page 8.
HIGHER COSTS RACE INTO JAPAN'S FACTORIES
Japan’s producer prices rose +4.9% in April from a year ago, a surge from an upwardly revised +2.9% increase in March. Markets had expected a +3% rise. The usual suspects were the cause.
SWAP RATES WAVER
Wholesale swap rates will probably be flat today across the whole curve although longer rates may be higher. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -3 bps at 2.67% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 5.05%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +10 bps at 2.70% today which we make as a new 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.78%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate down -2 bps at 4.73%. The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps at 4.51% and its highest since the beginning of 2025.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market is down -0.8% in Friday day trade so far. But the ASX200 is little-changed in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.3% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.9% but Shanghai is only down -0.1% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended today with the S&P500 up +0.8% in Thursday trade but no other international markets followed its lead.
OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices are up +US$1, with the WTI benchmark just on US$102.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is up at US$107/bbl.
CARBON PRICE RISES
There have again been very few trades today on the secondary market, and small ones at that, but the price has risen +$2 to $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4619/oz, down -US$68 from this this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$81.50oz and down -US$5 from yesterday.
NZD FALLS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.3 and down another -30 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN JUMPS BACK
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,275 and up +2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.
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3 Comments
Real Estate agent fails to disclose material price info related to her own house sale to developer, costs neighbour clients $500k. RE Tribunal fines her $2k including costs.
Surely there's also a civil claim available?
Auckland agent sold her home for $1.9m, then sold the house next door for $1.43m | Stuff
The uptick in price and volume for quality fine NZ wool is something of a reversion of history given that’s why sheep came to NZ in the first place. The introduction of refrigerated shipping morphed into a substantial and lucrative supply of lamb/mutton/edible offals and other by products to the home country, the UK. That in turn saw sheep such as the Romney come into favour as it yielded quality meat cuts and wool of a grade good enough for say military winter uniforms. Of course all that has gone in terms of a volume market. My family was farming in the Nth Canterbury high country from the nineteenth century until WW2. About three years ago I visited some old neighbours still in place, in fact one of the renowned wool baron families and learned that the stock was being largely reverted to the traditional merino and perendale breeds with selective cross breeds that were yielding superior fine wool than ever before. Therefore it is rewarding to note this market improvement not all that long after. So there it is. In its own way the wheel has turned back to where it all started from.
Notice that the CEO for Bayleys Lloyd Budd hung up his hat in Nov 2025 and is now running for MP for Whangarei under the National brand. Life spent in selling real estate, including stints in Dubai. Son of the great Kauri rugby lock Mike Budd.
Endorsed by Sir Chon Kee (rhymes with shonky) and Paula Benefit.
Is this a signal the Ponzi is toast or just a legitimate career shift?
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