Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ has raised some key TD rates. Welcome upped its one year rate too. A review of where these bank and non-bank rates stand is here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
ONLY BUYING WHAT YOU NEED
Despite further sharp increase in fuel prices, overall spending using electronic cards fell in nominal terms in April, with households cutting spending across all store types. Most sectors fell quite hard, including what was spent on fuel. But interestingly spending on durable goods and hospitality fell the least.
PPI STARTS TO MOVE UP
Maybe somewhat surprisingly, producer input costs only rose +1.8% in the March 21026 quarter from a year ago. But unsurprisingly, they were up +1.4% from the December quarter. And remember, this data only has one month (March) in it that would have been hit hard from the fallout from Trump's War. The real impact would appear until we get the Q2 data. Producers only passed on 0.8% of that 1.4% cost increase.
NO DIFFERENT ON THE FARM
For farmers, and excluding livestock, farm expenses also rise +1.8% for the year, with +1.0%of that in the latest quarter. In this data, it seems horticulture has been hit the least.
RECORD KIWISAVING
The latest data from the IRD tracking KiwiSaver payments to fund managers shows they handed over $1.75 bln of employee deductions, plus another $960 mln of employer contributions, and a dribble of Crown payments, all totalling $2.7 bln in the quarter. For the year to March, this is $11.1 bln all up and a new record high. (If only the fund managers added more value than some pretty average returns by many. Fund managers are required to 'communicate' with their investors, but most of them just talk their own book. According to Sorted's Smart Investor, the best conservative fund returned +2.3%, the best balanced fund returned +3.8%, the best growth fund returned +10.6% and the best aggressive fund +7.6%. These are the 'best' and actually not a great look for the industry. It is an industry that harvests huge fees. We are not picking on Simplicity here but they do tout their 'low fees', and their Conservative return (according to Sorted) is only 1.8%, their balanced fund 4.4%, and their growth fund 6.0%. Even these are weak by international standards.)
NZX50 UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.1% so far today, but still a weekly fall of -1.3%. It is down -3.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +2.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +3.4% from yesterday. Today's rebound is on strength from Gentrack, Mainfreight, F&P Healthcare and Summerset. But Kathmandu, Sanford, Tourism Holdings and Vulcan Steel fall.
OLD & ANGRY, YOUNG & UPBEAT
In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey is picking up a range of recent trends. Sentiment improved marginally despite the fuel shock, but within that more people are downbeat on their economy. The Canberra Budget didn't have a big impact though. Job loss fears are still elevated even if slightly less so. But homebuyer sentiment dis own sharply to deeply pessimistic levels. And consumer house price expectations have softened even if they are still positive. A key thing to watch across the ditch is the widening sentiment gap between young and old. The ‘baby boomer’ and ‘Generation X’ cohorts are extremely weak (angry). Sentiment amongst ‘Millennials’ is only modestly pessimistic. But ‘Generation Z’ is outright positive they note.
JAPAN RISING
Japanese GDP came in with a +2.1% (real) annual expansion are in Q1-2026, up from the +0.8% in Q4-2025. A rise was anticipated but only to +1.7%.
WHAT DID THE US-CHINA SUMMIT ACHIEVE?
The always excellent Bill Bishop has used AI (Claude) to compare what the Chinese think was accomplished, with what the US think. It is here. There is some overlap. But there is clearly much confusion on what was actually agreed. Basically we should expect both sides to accuse the other of reneging - and in turn, the great rivalry will just fester on.
SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates will probably be down today, and possibly sharply on regional trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.66% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -9 bps at 5.05%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -4 bps at 2.75% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.77%, down -9 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +7 bps at 4.82%. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 4.60%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is back up +1.1% in Tuesday day trade so far. And the ASX200 opened its Tuesday up +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.6% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.1% but Shanghai is down -0.2% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.7% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday session down -0.1% on the S&P500, down -0.5% on the Nasdaq.
OIL PRICES FALL BACK
American oil prices are down -US$4.50, with the WTI benchmark just on US$103/bbl, and the international Brent price is down -US$1 at US$110/bbl. Trump has apparently said he isn't going to attack Iran after all.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been more dood trades today on the secondary market, some larger ones. The price has held firm at $52.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4548/oz, up +US$14 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$76.50oz and up +US$1.50.
NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62 and up +20 bps from yesterday at this time.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,550 and down just -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.
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11 Comments
The always excellent Bill Bishop has used AI (Claude) to compare what the Chinese think was accomplished, with what the US think. It is here.
What is importantly totally absent from either side is any mention at all about Iran or the Straight of Hormuz or any oil !
Well in the 13th century the Khans swallowed up both China and Persia so they have been empired together you might say. Perhaps Xi is simply of the mind, been there, done that. In fact the Mongols and the Crusaders at the time formed an informal alliance to oppose the Muslim kingdoms.Little wonder Iran tends to look over its shoulder. Mind you after that it didn’t matter much, and if not for the oil, likely wouldn’t much now.
Kiwisaver, "For the year to March, this is $11.1 bln all up and a new record high."
Mostly off to S&P bubbleland. No wonder markets lost the ability to "correct".
"American oil prices are down" "Trump has apparently said he isn't going to attack Iran after all"
Team Trump must have finished exiting their positions.
The salient point seems to be “no nuclear weapons for Iran.” Quite obviously nobody but the Iranians know what they have got to give up and where it is and consequently if what they say and what they do about it don’t agree then there’s not much anybody else can do about it. As such any agreement will amount to little more than President Trump taking Iran’s word for it. All that for this!
Obama had already, intelligently, gone as far as was needed.
Perhaps we should abstain from trading with the US until it gets down to one nuke?
' Even these are weak by international standards.'
Have you ever looked at the links I put up, DC?
Ever?
Compare your comment with: https://axismundi001.substack.com/p/the-metabolic-theory-of-civilisation
Standards? Defend, please...
Japanese GDP came in with a +2.1% (real) annual expansion are in Q1-2026, up from the +0.8% in Q4-2025. A rise was anticipated but only to +1.7%
Western DGM commentary on Japan is high at the moment. Alternative research shows that Japan's debt is possibly not as great as led to believe. All depends on your lens. For ex, looking at the consolidated debt of Japan, including gross govt borrowing, but also various govt funds including pension funds and also funds held through the BoJ.
When you take all of this into account, the consolidated debt across all of Japan’s government is only 77% of GDP, even though the gross debt by the adjusted measure is more like 270% of GDP. When the authors do a parallel calculation for the US economy, they find that the US has consolidated debt of about 83% of GDP. In other words, what looks like Japanese gross debt far above US levels, it is actually the same as consolidated Japanese debt below US levels.
https://conversableeconomist.com/2025/12/23/how-does-japan-sustain-such…
I think Japan leads the way in terms of a stable (relatively non-volatile), post-Ponzi economy.
NZ is rooted I will ask copilot to expand but that’s the guts of it
Water cooler buddy says "at least we're not Japan"
lol
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