A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; housing confidence eases, dairy prices hold, households see higher inflation, fuel stocks stable, swaps up, long term bond yields up, NZX down, NZD down, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There have been small upward changes from ICBC, Bank of India and Finance Direct today. A review of where these bank and non-bank rates stand is here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HOUSING CONFIDENCE EASES
ASB says its survey from 2942 respondents reveals confidence in the housing market eased in Q1-2026 as interest rate expectations have shifted sharply higher, with most households now expecting rates to rise. House price expectations have eased but remain positive, with more people now expecting prices to stay flat rather than fall. Buying sentiment eased only slightly they found, supported by plentiful housing supply despite risingliving costs and softer confidence.

DAIRY PRICES HOLD
The overnight full Global Dairy Trade auction saw prices rise +0.6% in USD terms, rise +1.55% in NZD terms. This is a stable commodity in a sea of instability elsewhere. The outcome may have been helped by the low volumes on offer, down -15% from the same auction a year ago.

NO-ONE SEES INFLATION EASING
Households think current inflation is high and it will get higher. This is according to the survey run for the RBNZ for Q2-2026. Compared with last quarter, mean household annual CPI inflation expectations increased across the one-, two-, and five-year horizons. The mean household expectation for one-year-ahead annual inflation increased from 5.2% to 5.6% this quarter. The median estimate for one-year-ahead annual inflation increased from 4.0% to 5.0%. The mean two-year-ahead annual inflation expectation increased from 3.4% to 4.9% this quarter. On average, households reported a 21% chance of not making a rent payment in the next 3 months, an increase from almost a 15% last quarter. Households reported a 14% chance of not making a mortgage payment in the next 3 months, down from 17 in the previous quarter.

FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation seems little-changed in volume terms.

NZX50 UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -11.1% so far today, with a weekly fall of -1.7%. It is down -4.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +1.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.2% from yesterday. Vulcan Steel, Napier Port, Turners and Chorus gain as Mercury, Summerset, Tourism Holdings and Vector drag on the NZX50.

AUSSIE LABOUR MARKET STILL EXPANDING
In Australia, a new labour market data series from employer tax filings shows there were 15.5 mln employee jobs in March, up +1.0% from a year ago, or +147,000. They were paid +6.0% more than a year ago. Obviously some of this is for the growth in the paid workforce, and that extra pay is before accounting for inflation.

STABLE
China reviewed its loan prime rates today and kept them both unchanged at record low levels. That means they actually haven't changed in a year now.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates will probably be firmer today and are settling into a yo-yo pattern, especially at the short end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.65% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 5.10%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +4 bps at 2.79% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.82%, up +5 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -8 bps at 4.74%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +7 bps at 4.67%.

EQUITIES FALL
The local equity market is back down -1.0% in Wednesday trade so far. And the ASX200 opened its Wednesday down -1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.3% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.9% and Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.7% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session down -0.7% on the S&P500, down -0.8% on the Nasdaq.

OIL PRICES FRISE
American oil prices are up +US$1, with the WTI benchmark just on US$104/bbl, and the international Brent price is also up +US$1 at US$111/bbl. (Trump has apparently said he is going to attack Iran after all, a 24 hour about-face.)

CARBON PRICE FIRM
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market, but those have pushed the price up +$1.50 to $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4462/oz, down +US$86 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$73.50oz and down -US$3.

NZD SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.8 and down -20 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,612 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has been LOW at just on +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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