A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; retail flurry, tractor dip, Nowcast hesitation, Fonterra drops Fitch, Fletcher deal with Vinci unconditional, swaps ease, NZX50 firm NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank, and AMP, both raised some term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE LAST OF THE SUMMER PROGRESS
Retail sales data out for the March quarter was positive. This will feed into the Q1-2026 GDP result due to be released on June 18, 2026. It recorded a solid lift in consumer spending in the quarter, but at a slightly lesser pace seen in the December quarter. It is an extension of the minor retail recovery that began in late 2024. Nominal spending rose by +2.2% over the quarter to be up +6.1% on the same time a year ago. But we started to see a pullback in discretionary spending. But much has changed since of course, and as signaled by the April electronic cards data. Q2-2026 will be tough for retailing, and it will likely contract.

LANDLORD WELFARE TO RISE
Retail sales are unlikely to be helped by a "shake-up" in social housing rents, announced yesterday. The government will collect an extra $31/week on average from social housing rents, and they announced an increase for the landlord rort by raising the accommodation supplement. These changes will start in April 2027.

NOT SUSTAINED
The good rise in March tractor sales was not followed up by an equivalent good rise in April. In fact, April tractor sales came in -13% lower than the average for an April over the past five years.

FADING
The latest update of the RBNZ GDP Nowcast, using high frequency data, suggests that the June quarter will not show any quarter-on-quarter expansion when it is officially released by StatsNZ in September 2026. Their tracking for the March quarter still shows a small expansion, although diminishing as new data becomes available.

NZX50 FIRM AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.3% so far today, with a weekly fall of -0.4%. It is down -4.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +2.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed from yesterday. Oceania Healthcare, Summerset, Mainfreight, and Serko lift the NZX50 to end week higher; Tower, Briscoes, Turners, and Kathmandu retreat.

SIMPLER, SO FEWER NEEDED
Fonterra said today it is dumping Fitch as a credit rater of the business, and only now engaging with S&P Global. They say only engaging with one rating agency is "common practice" for debt issuers, and the change is because they are now a "simpler business". Fonterra is currently dual rated by Fitch Ratings (A stable) and S&P Global Ratings (A- stable).

OUT OF CONSTRUCTION
Fletcher said the sale of its construction business is now a done-deal. Buyers French-owned VINCI Construction are now unconditional, with completion of the transaction set down for 29 May 2026. As previously signalled, the signing by Higgins Contractors of the East Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Hawkes Bay Integrated Delivery Contracts means that the purchase price has increased from $315.6 mln to ~$334 mln, subject to working capital and net debt adjustments.

BEEF PRICES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT.
Meat marketing bosses are indicating that beef prices are under pressure in the US, and this is expected to worsen from the flood of [antibiotic-dosed] Brazilian and Argentine beef is being let into the US, as the Trump Administration scrambles to address affordability issues in advance of their summer barbeque season. A lot will depend on how well we market the distinctions in qualities, and how interested their consumers are in these differences.

IMMUNE?
Despite all the global pressure their business are under, Japanese consumers avoided the impacts in April. Their inflation edged down to 1.4% from 1.5% in March. Food prices rose the least in 18 months amid a further slowdown in rice costs.

FEELING RELIEVED
After falling sharply in April, South Korean consumer sentiment rebounded in May, although not quite back to levels it was between June 2025 and March 2026. Still, this new level is above every month from December 2021 to May 2025 and was a much strong bounce-back than was anticipated. Outcomes like this will help anyone feel better about life.

SWAP RATES STAY SOFT
Wholesale swap rates will probably show a small dip in a flattening trend. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.64% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.92%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is unchanged at 2.77% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.72%, down -3 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate down -8 bps at 4.72%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 4.57%.

EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market is up +0.2% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 opened its Friday up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up even more, up +2.3% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.8% and Shanghai is up +0.2% at its open today. Singapore is also up +0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session up +0.2% on the S&P500, up +0.1% on the Nasdaq.

OIL PRICES DIP
American oil prices are down -US$1.50, with the WTI benchmark just on US$97.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is down -US$2 at US$104/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades again today on the secondary market, but the price has held up at $53.90/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down at US$4523/oz, slipping -US$9 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$76.50oz and up +US$1.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.2 and up +10 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,556 and down -0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 1.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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