Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank, and AMP, both raised some term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
THE LAST OF THE SUMMER PROGRESS
Retail sales data out for the March quarter was positive. This will feed into the Q1-2026 GDP result due to be released on June 18, 2026. It recorded a solid lift in consumer spending in the quarter, but at a slightly lesser pace seen in the December quarter. It is an extension of the minor retail recovery that began in late 2024. Nominal spending rose by +2.2% over the quarter to be up +6.1% on the same time a year ago. But we started to see a pullback in discretionary spending. But much has changed since of course, and as signaled by the April electronic cards data. Q2-2026 will be tough for retailing, and it will likely contract.
LANDLORD WELFARE TO RISE
Retail sales are unlikely to be helped by a "shake-up" in social housing rents, announced yesterday. The government will collect an extra $31/week on average from social housing rents, and they announced an increase for the landlord rort by raising the accommodation supplement. These changes will start in April 2027.
NOT SUSTAINED
The good rise in March tractor sales was not followed up by an equivalent good rise in April. In fact, April tractor sales came in -13% lower than the average for an April over the past five years.
FADING
The latest update of the RBNZ GDP Nowcast, using high frequency data, suggests that the June quarter will not show any quarter-on-quarter expansion when it is officially released by StatsNZ in September 2026. Their tracking for the March quarter still shows a small expansion, although diminishing as new data becomes available.
NZX50 FIRM AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.3% so far today, with a weekly fall of -0.4%. It is down -4.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +2.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed from yesterday. Oceania Healthcare, Summerset, Mainfreight, and Serko lift the NZX50 to end week higher; Tower, Briscoes, Turners, and Kathmandu retreat.
SIMPLER, SO FEWER NEEDED
Fonterra said today it is dumping Fitch as a credit rater of the business, and only now engaging with S&P Global. They say only engaging with one rating agency is "common practice" for debt issuers, and the change is because they are now a "simpler business". Fonterra is currently dual rated by Fitch Ratings (A stable) and S&P Global Ratings (A- stable).
OUT OF CONSTRUCTION
Fletcher said the sale of its construction business is now a done-deal. Buyers French-owned VINCI Construction are now unconditional, with completion of the transaction set down for 29 May 2026. As previously signalled, the signing by Higgins Contractors of the East Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Hawkes Bay Integrated Delivery Contracts means that the purchase price has increased from $315.6 mln to ~$334 mln, subject to working capital and net debt adjustments.
BEEF PRICES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT.
Meat marketing bosses are indicating that beef prices are under pressure in the US, and this is expected to worsen from the flood of [antibiotic-dosed] Brazilian and Argentine beef is being let into the US, as the Trump Administration scrambles to address affordability issues in advance of their summer barbeque season. A lot will depend on how well we market the distinctions in qualities, and how interested their consumers are in these differences.
IMMUNE?
Despite all the global pressure their business are under, Japanese consumers avoided the impacts in April. Their inflation edged down to 1.4% from 1.5% in March. Food prices rose the least in 18 months amid a further slowdown in rice costs.
FEELING RELIEVED
After falling sharply in April, South Korean consumer sentiment rebounded in May, although not quite back to levels it was between June 2025 and March 2026. Still, this new level is above every month from December 2021 to May 2025 and was a much strong bounce-back than was anticipated. Outcomes like this will help anyone feel better about life.
SWAP RATES STAY SOFT
Wholesale swap rates will probably show a small dip in a flattening trend. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.64% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.92%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is unchanged at 2.77% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.72%, down -3 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate down -8 bps at 4.72%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 4.57%.
EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market is up +0.2% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 opened its Friday up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up even more, up +2.3% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.8% and Shanghai is up +0.2% at its open today. Singapore is also up +0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session up +0.2% on the S&P500, up +0.1% on the Nasdaq.
OIL PRICES DIP
American oil prices are down -US$1.50, with the WTI benchmark just on US$97.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is down -US$2 at US$104/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades again today on the secondary market, but the price has held up at $53.90/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down at US$4523/oz, slipping -US$9 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just on US$76.50oz and up +US$1.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.2 and up +10 bps from yesterday at this time.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,556 and down -0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 1.0%.
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20 Comments
Yes that beef situation in the USA, it was more than obvious that the Trump administration ignored their own data of a declined domestic supply and exacerbated that by imposing tariffs. Now the predictable knee jerk 180 to hose down the constraints of pricing by resorting to virtual open slather importing. The inclusion and relaxation of let’s say suspect Sth American supply is interesting in so much that the USDA, normally stringent with their regs, can also be oddly forgiving. Some may recall in the early 80s Australian beef exports were found to contain kangaroo and horse meat. Yet all was made up and sweet, unusually rapidly which somewhat ironically does highlight the fact that the USA is dependent on importing lean beef to blend with their fattier product.
Horsemeat was found in UK kebabs not that long ago.
Tastes bloody good after a few beers then
There was a suggestion, amongst the counterpart trade in NZ, that the Australians really gave the game away themselves, when they started marketing a “Skippy” brand.
At $334 million Flectchers has surely sold up for cents in the dollar? It doesn't seem much a for business that once dominated commercial construction.
I suspect dominating commercial construction isn’t particularly profitable these days.
Walmart's stock price plunged 7%+ last night its latest earnings release and forward guidance, which highlights margin pressure and a cautious outlook on the consumer and profits.
Basically the shopper is tapped out.
Walmart described U.S. consumers as “resilient” but value‑focused, emphasizing that people are still coming to stores and spending but are highly sensitive to price and seeking bargains.
Nobody was listening to Uncle Phoenix when I said that the 'nice to haves' are the first to suffer. In the scheme of things, Walmart is not fancy pants retailing.
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/walmart-forecasts-sale…
Their junk isn’t quite junky enough for the Americans
I not only was listening but in total agreement. The analogy I applied was that when spending power is constrained the lower end retailers benefit for example they no longer buy their knickers and briefs from Macy’s but instead Walmart or Target, and how many would get to know about that anyway. So can only agree even more, if Walmart is on a slide, then the fowls are really coming home to the roost.
when spending power is constrained the lower end retailers benefit for example they no longer buy their knickers and briefs from Macy’s but instead Walmart or Target
I hear you. For the el cheapo undies, Uniqlo is really the best in terms of value for money. You might find Uniqlo in NYC but I doubt they have any outlets in Kentucky or Tennessee.
All prentence abandoned
TBH I’m not a fan of cheap state houses unless there’s enough for everyone. We talk about inequality and think it’s the gap between rich and poor, but I reckon inequality between people who try and those that don’t is worse. If a bludger who is eligible for a state house ends up better off than a hard worker who isn’t eligible, that’s a crap outcome.
I have a different perspective. Basically the Ponzi relies on and starts from low-income h'holds then works its way up the socio-economic ladder. They haven't had a choice to be trapped in this game. It's all by design: the FIRE industry and the ruling elite wear the pants and have never consulted them. They're left out of the social contract.
Japan and S'pore both realized that if you treat the serfs with no respect, then why should they play by the societal rules expected of them? You can refer to poor people as bludgers, but can't you also apply that to the offspring who have the benefits of the bank of Mum and Dad? They haven't traded their labor for the privilege, so indirectly they're bludgers too.
I know of a few people who were living in million dollar plus state homes in rich areas of Auckland and paying bugger all. You could argue why should those areas be reserved for the rich. But state houses were reserving them for the rich and the bludgers, while the working middle class were locked out.
I know of a few people who were living in million dollar plus state homes in rich areas of Auckland and paying bugger all
Yes, but the poor people are not responsible for the Ponzi. That's the banks who create the credit that puts the silly million-dollar price tags on the homes.
million dollar plus state homes in rich areas
Such a "price" tag isn't saying much though right? I doubt these are luxury homes, and the apparent rich area is likely due to exclusive school zones which might at least allow for some social mobility among the so called bludgers - probably the same social mobility path from the previous generations that allowed many of those rich neighbours to get where they are.
while the working middle class were locked out.
They/we would be anyway.. but we've more power in numbers to change this and it sure isn't by focusing on how "good" the (selective) poor seem to have it - if it were that good we'd all be striving to live in squalor.
There's a large bias within a particular demographic, between the appropriate incentives they believe the poorer outgroup need/deserve and what their own children need/deserve in order to "get ahead"
But you are happy to subsidise the rents and capital gains of landlords....that makes sense.
landlords up 3bil students down 350 mil
yeah that's fair
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