Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB raised some fixed mortgage rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB increased their one year TD rate today. They also raised their 3, 4 and 5 year rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GYM COMPANY'S COST OF DOING BUSINESS FOR MISLEADING CUSTOMERS OVER FEES
The Commerce Commission says gym operator CityFitness Group has been fined $1.12 mln after pleading guilty to 8 Fair Trading Act charges after charging fees labelled "transaction fee" and "payment authority fee" to more than 125,000 customers, creating about $1.6 mln of revenue. The Commission says this created a misleading impression the fees were a surcharge related to a customer’s choice of payment, where its investigation found the actual purpose was to lift overall business revenue. Judge David Clark says CityFitness' decisions to increase membership fees to cover increasing operating costs "had the effect of misleading potential members in terms of what they would be paying as a membership fee." The charge period was for misleading claims made between 21 December 2023 and 30 April 2025.
SIDEWAYS
Westpac is the next bank to analyse its electronic card sales. They report that May was another soft month for retail sales, with per-person spending on Westpac debit and credit cards down -0.3%. Spending has effectively been tracking sideways since the start of this year, they say.
FLAT-LINING
QV is reporting just minor changes to housing values over the three months to May. Nationally these average values rose +0.3% to $912,190
POSITIVE I
The StatsNZ release of manufacturing data that will flow into the upcoming Q1-2026 GDP result (June 18) was positive with sales up +4.2% in value terms from a year ago, up +2.8% in volumes terms. At the same time, overall inventory volumes were up +3.0%. But excluding meat and dairy, manufacturing volumes were only up +1.6% from a year ago, dragged lower by the seafood processing industry.
POSITIVE II
Meanwhile, wholesale trade data also turned in a positive Q1-2026 result, with sales up +9.0% while inventories were up +2.8%.
NZX50 FIRMER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today, but with a weekly fall now of -0.6%. It is down -2.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.8% so far today. Vulcan Steel, Vista Group, SkyCity casino and Auckland Airport lead the NZX50 higher; Spark, Serko, A2 Milk and Genesis Energy are the main decliners.
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation seems little-changed in volume terms.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 33.6 | 22.4 | 30.2 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 7 | 4.9 | 11.6 | 10.8 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 8 | 19.8 | 15.6 | 12.5 |
| Total NZ stock, June 3, 2026 | 15 | 58.3 | 49.6 | 53.5 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 34.4 | 23.8 | 31.1 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 9 | 16.3 | 11.6 | 22.0 |
| Total NZ stock, May 31, 2026 | 13 | 55.6 | 40.3 | 54.6 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 34.4 | 24.8 | 32.5 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 15.3 | 19.4 | 22.0 |
| Total NZ stock, May 27, 2026 | 13 | 58.1 | 44.2 | 57.8 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, May 20, 2026 | 13 | 53.1 | 49.1 | 53.7 |
| Total NZ stock, May 17, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 55.0 |
| Total NZ stock, May 13, 2026 | 12 | 56.2 | 46.3 | 47.7 |
| Total NZ stock, May 10, 2026 | 12 | 59.0 | 45.2 | 50.2 |
| Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026 | 11 | 51.0 | 44.3 | 54.1 |
| Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026 | 10 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 55.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026 | 12 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 58.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 49.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026 | 10 | 51.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026 | 11 | 51.2 | 41.6 | 47.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 44.8 | 51.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 12 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47.0 |
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 14 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 14 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 16 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 16 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 15 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
NOT SO POSITIVE
In Australia, the June update of their Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer confidence survey was not especially positive. Consumers report more pressure on finances and fearful about the year ahead. And they are even more feaful of the outlook three years ahead. Job loss fears weren't especially notable, and home purchase sentiment was "less bleak" but with price expectations off sharply.
NOT SO NEGATIVE
Meanwhile, the June NAB business sentiment survey in Australia brough less bleak responses. But the overall confidence level is still net negative. Business conditions were little-changed and still barely positive. Cost and price growth eased in May, though pressures remained elevated.
SWAP RATES EASE BACK
After yesterday's rise, wholesale swap rates will probably be a bit softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.67% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.94%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.73% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.60%, down -3 bps from this time Friday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +7 bps at 4.60%.) The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 4.57%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is up +0.4% from yesterday's levels. The ASX200 is down -0.3%. Tokyo is has opened up +1.0%. Hong Kong is down -0.2% but Shanghai is up +0.4% at its open today. Singapore is back up +1.0%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade up +0.3%.
OIL PRICES FALL BACK
American oil prices are down -US$3 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$90.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just under US$93.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS ADAIN
There have been quite a few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has firmed +$2 to $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$27 from yesterday at this time at US$4338/oz. Silver is little-changed at just under US$68/oz.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we up +10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.8 and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price is now at US$62,805 and down -0.4% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 15%.
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25 Comments
In Australia, the June update of their Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer confidence survey was not especially positive. Consumers report more pressure on finances and fearful about the year ahead. And they are even more feaful of the outlook three years ahead. Job loss fears weren't especially notable, and home purchase sentiment was "less bleak" but with price expectations off sharply.
The Aussie downturn is just starting, takes me back in NZ in middle of 2023...
So our petrol, diesel and jet fuel stocks have not reduced at all since the beginning of the Israel-US-Iran war. Have we worried too much ? Has the government done a great job, or were we just crying wolf too much ?
No, no and no.
:)
Someone put up the reserve-stock reduction chart today, didn't they?
Draw-down is a concept which a lot of people seem to have trouble understanding.
And I don't see things getting 'better' soon.
Yes, yes and yes.
Look at the chart above provided by Interest. Stocks are HIGHER today than in March. This is not a matter of opinion, they are simple numbers saying that stocks are higher today.
Open the first eye.
Then the second.
How people can be so limited in their thinking-scope - then so unlimited in their wishful extrapolations...
has been one of life's great wonders, for me.
And that is within a bigger arena, which is totally based on draw-down of the finite. Also cranially bypassed by most. Fascinating.
It's a shame you will never see what you predict as Methuselah you are not.
Ok. Grabs popcorn...
You will need an awful lot of popcorn. Tell us how you are prepping if you are so certain?
They did a great job Yvil. There were people crying doom. Demanding fuel restrictions etc etc and etc.
But the government set up a clever system that coveted all eventualities. In the absence of a crystal ball. Phases 1, 2, 3, 4. With a plan for each.
From "watch it like a hawk" to "full disaster"
We never got off phase one. Which had full disclosure of stocks as much as they/we knew.
Absolutely brilliant governing.
But it could still turn and bite us. We are prepared as much as we could be.
"Absolutely brilliant governing."....assuming their judgement ends up being correct...an absolute disaster if it isnt.
Looking back on their decisions to date which do you think more likely?
They didn't do anything and clenched their sphincters.
And the problem hasn't been even fractionally resolved - indeed every day it gets worse.
HT PT08: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/06/singapore-fuel-stocks-plummet-…
Trump thinks he's brilliant too.
"They didn't do anything and clenched their sphincters"
Incorrect, Luxon negotiated more fuel import with the Singaporean Prime Minister.
Not strictly true...we signed an agreement that our current supplies would not be restricted....assuming Singapore is in a position to honour that agreement.
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/nz-and-singapore-agreement-protects…
He tried to perpetuate BAU
Because that is all he knows
Unfortunately, it is more like BAPU - 'Previously' being the insert.
It could still be disaster Frank. But not the fault of the government. Just a difficult world.
The decision was theirs...if it ends up detrimental they have no one else to blame...unfortunately if they do get it wrong they wont be the ones effected the most
It absolutely would be the fault of this ideology-driven mob.
They have had every chance to learn.
And either chose not to or were unable to. (I'm leaning towards the latter).
The sooner you adapt to an inevitability, the less the jolt. They are shovelling coal on a runaway train. Which can only be described as stupidity.
Your "solution" involved a return to bartering ...if I remember correctly?
It's simply an opportunity lost. The opportunity to get us into a more resilient self reliant position via a crisis totally wasted.
Interesting MSM article about the cafe apocalypse in Aussie. This is partly a by-product of Ponzinomics. I was too young to experience, but I remember stories of $10 coffees in Tokyo. Before I moved on from corporate Japan in the 2010s, I could buy a Maccas Joe a stone's throw from my office for JPY100. And it was superb.
On public holidays, when the 150 per cent penalty rates kick in, the lowest-paid cafe workers will make a staggering $78/hour from July 1.
Industry leaders say the system has become entirely “dysfunctional” and predicted an industry bloodbath in the coming months.
“It’s dysfunctional at the moment. The wages have gone up to a point where it means businesses effectively can’t operate profitably at any point”
https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/aussie-cafe-bosses-erupt-as…
I remember getting an espresso on Omotesando in 1998 for around ¥500. Maybe $8 at the time but seating fee would have brought it close to $10.
Worth it though!
I know a coffee merchant now in NZ that still thinks we're not paying enough for coffee and thinks the price needs to climb. Only way to justify will be differentiation of beans and quality etc. But that could lead to bifurcation of market with cheaper filter coffee also available. In AKL at the moment I can can decent $3.50 filter coffee but usually bring a thermos from home
Yes coffee is definitely underpriced. The only reason we get it so good is on the back of paying growers peanuts for raw, dried, green beans ,and the middlemen creaming the biggest slice.
When in Guatemala 2018 I hiked up a craterside where coffee was grown all the way up. Women from the village at the top would walk down picking in the harvest season every day, then carry it back to the top, all for a pittance of pay. Alas, some of the best coffee I've ever had.
Just read that article. Damn. $78 an hour for dishwashers on public holidays.
Wonder if his shop is in a mall where you get fined for not opening. Otherwise why bother
Not sure how they calculate that $78 an hour...the article says a 150% premium.
Kospi down/up 8% I have seen these wide bars on charts before they are a harbinger of DOOM
BofA 7/10 doom indicators have been met be warned
its very frothy
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