A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; TSB raises rates, Westpac can't see consumer spending improvements, good Q1 data, fuel stocks rise, carbon price firm, swaps dip, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB raised some fixed mortgage rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB increased their one year TD rate today. They also raised their 3, 4 and 5 year rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

GYM COMPANY'S COST OF DOING BUSINESS FOR MISLEADING CUSTOMERS OVER FEES
The Commerce Commission says gym operator CityFitness Group has been fined $1.12 mln after pleading guilty to 8 Fair Trading Act charges after charging fees labelled "transaction fee" and "payment authority fee" to more than 125,000 customers, creating about $1.6 mln of revenue. The Commission says this created a misleading impression the fees were a surcharge related to a customer’s choice of payment, where its investigation found the actual purpose was to lift overall business revenue. Judge David Clark says CityFitness' decisions to increase membership fees to cover increasing operating costs "had the effect of misleading potential members in terms of what they would be paying as a membership fee." The charge period was for misleading claims made between 21 December 2023 and 30 April 2025.

SIDEWAYS
Westpac is the next bank to analyse its electronic card sales. They report that May was another soft month for retail sales, with per-person spending on Westpac debit and credit cards down -0.3%. Spending has effectively been tracking sideways since the start of this year, they say.

FLAT-LINING
QV is reporting just minor changes to housing values over the three months to May. Nationally these average values rose +0.3% to $912,190

POSITIVE I
The StatsNZ release of manufacturing data that will flow into the upcoming Q1-2026 GDP result (June 18) was positive with sales up +4.2% in value terms from a year ago, up +2.8% in volumes terms. At the same time, overall inventory volumes were up +3.0%. But excluding meat and dairy, manufacturing volumes were only up +1.6% from a year ago, dragged lower by the seafood processing industry.

POSITIVE II
Meanwhile, wholesale trade data also turned in a positive Q1-2026 result, with sales up +9.0% while inventories were up +2.8%.

NZX50 FIRMER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today, but with a weekly fall now of -0.6%. It is down -2.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.8% so far today. Vulcan Steel, Vista Group, SkyCity casino and Auckland Airport lead the NZX50 higher; Spark, Serko, A2 Milk and Genesis Energy are the main decliners.

FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation seems little-changed in volume terms.

NOT SO POSITIVE
In Australia, the June update of their Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer confidence survey was not especially positive. Consumers report more pressure on finances and fearful about the year ahead. And they are even more feaful of the outlook three years ahead. Job loss fears weren't especially notable, and home purchase sentiment was "less bleak" but with price expectations off sharply.

NOT SO NEGATIVE
Meanwhile, the June NAB business sentiment survey in Australia brough less bleak responses. But the overall confidence level is still net negative. Business conditions were little-changed and still barely positive. Cost and price growth eased in May, though pressures remained elevated.

SWAP RATES EASE BACK
After yesterday's rise, wholesale swap rates will probably be a bit softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.67% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.94%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.73% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.60%, down -3 bps from this time Friday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +7 bps at 4.60%.) The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 4.57%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is up +0.4% from yesterday's levels. The ASX200 is down -0.3%. Tokyo is has opened up +1.0%. Hong Kong is down -0.2% but Shanghai is up +0.4% at its open today. Singapore is back up +1.0%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade up +0.3%.

OIL PRICES FALL BACK
American oil prices are down -US$3 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$90.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just under US$93.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS ADAIN
There have been quite a few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has firmed +$2 to $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$27 from yesterday at this time at US$4338/oz. Silver is little-changed at just under US$68/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we up +10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.8 and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price is now at US$62,805 and down -0.4% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 15%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».