Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Liberty Financial raised all its rates today, including its floating rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS raised its 12 and 18 month TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MORE IMMIGRANTS, FEWER EMIGRANTS
The number of NZ citizens leaving the country long-term continues declining with the lowest number of long term departures of NZ citizens in the month of April since 2022. Population growth from migration was up strongly with the the biggest net gains in migration in the year to April from China +11,975, India +11,169, Philippines +7985, Sri Lanka +4391, Nepal +2028 and the USA +2026.
VISITOR RECOVERY EXTENDS, BUT NOT THERE YET
Tourism visitor arrivals rose +2.3% in April from March. This increase is +8.0% higher than in April 2025. In turn this means we have climbed to 94% of pre-pandemic levels (April 2019). China accounted for half the increase in visitor arrivals in April, Australia a quarter. H/T Infometrics.
GOING BACKWARDS
Our factory PMI contracted in May after an April expansion. In fact it is now its lowest reading in almost a year even if it was just a minor contraction. But as BNZ noted, "potentially particularly disconcerting is the fact that, when compared to long term averages, new orders are the weakest component but stocks are the strongest. This is bad news for future production."
LIVESTOCK PRICES
Another week and farmgate prices for beef and sheep continue to rise. But this week brought no rises for venison.
NZX50 ENDING WITH A FLOURISH
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is has risen +1.2% so far today, and with a weekly rise now of +1.6%. It is down -0.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.7% so far today. A2 Milk, Heartland, Fletcher and Oceania lift the NZX50 to a strong weekly finish; Gentrack, Hallensteins, Kathmandu and AirNZ ease.
OUTLOOK UPGRADE
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Queenstown Lakes District Council's credit rating to Stable from Negative. The rating has been affirmed at 'AA-'. Key to the upgrade has been its ability to build its operating balance and moderate its leverage.
OUTLOOK DOWNGRADE
And Fitch has changed its 2026 global sovereign sector outlook to ‘deteriorating’ from ‘neutral’ because of the impact of the US-Iran war. They say they expect the conflict will weaken GDP growth, raise inflation and bond yields, and heighten geopolitical risks. New Zealand and Australia will have this drag applied in their reviews.
STILL VERY INSURABLE
The Natural Hazards Commission (ex-EQC) has secured $12.3 bln in reinsurance cover, a 20% increase and a sign insurance markets still see us as quite insurable.
SWAP RATES RETREAT
Wholesale swap rates will probably be notably lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1% at 2.68% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.83%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -3 bps at 2.65% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.51%, down -6 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +1 bp at 4.55%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -8 bps at 4.47%.
EQUITIES GLOW
The local equity market is now up +1.1% from yesterday's level. The ASX200 is up +1.9%. Tokyo is has opened up +3.5%. Hong Kong is up +1.9% and Shanghai is up +1.6% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.7%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +1.8%.
OIL PRICES RETREAT
American oil prices are down -US$5 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$86.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just under US$89.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
There were many good late trades yesterday and some with chunky volumes. Today there are many trade again but mostly small volume ones. The price has firmed through all this by +$1 to $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RECOVERS STRONGLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$121/oz from yesterday at this time, at US$4192/oz. Silver is up +US$3.50 at just on US$67/oz.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is back up +20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we up +10 bps at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.8 and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN FIRMS FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,502 and up +2.3% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.
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15 Comments
A week is a long time in politics and the Straits of Hormuz
Tonight is SpaceX day - Thunderbirds are go!
but not for me I will let you guys ride that financial rocket
Alarm is set. Sharsies wallet is loaded. It’s off to the races
from AFR - i personally have not done that well from the melb cup ... but just have to be part of it - Go the CRUSADERS!
This makes betting on SpaceX look like taking a trifecta on the Melbourne Cup.
There are 24 starters, they’re all good and/or well-bred horses, they’re from all over the world, and it is hard enough to pick the winner, let alone nab second and third place as well.
Yet, the trifecta pool was the biggest tote pool in last year’s race – box five horses, pay $50 and watch the race with the possibility of winning a few grand. It’s the thrill of being part of it.
No index funds or Kiwisaver then?
I can honestly say I have , at this point in time, no exposure
My partner does, that's enough for me. we have a great agreement she often knows when to buy something and I can tell her when to sell. She will only have index exposure, meanwhile I am short aussie banks and have been for a while now, trade is doing just fine.
Wish I could have been short KPMG
Wish I could have been short KPMG
Aussie is the only weak spot for them. Global revenue was up in 2025 - it grew to about USD39.8 billion, roughly 5.1% higher yoy, with all major service lines growing in aggregate.
Privy to some of their consulting work in APAC - same old garbage as their competition.
the just 1 cockroach call....
Kioxia Holdings up 3,700% in past 12 months. Probably a better horse to have picked for near-term win.
Japanese memory manufacturers of NAND flash memory and solid‑state storage products are not a hot topic at the water coolers and BBQs.
Everyone thinks they can pick the AI winner like the network winner remember Cisco 3Com
, SynOptics
, Wellfleet
, and Proteon
led the local area network (LAN) market, while early innovators like Banyan Systems
and Novell
managed the early days of corporate server and file sharing networks,
in time most will not need super duper super intelligence, hell most companies depend on people like you and me
our level of intelligence, with mores law will be $1 a day in a decade
Place your bets (I will not be departing to Mars) Human bodies cannot live in less then earth gravity... maybe one day but we have evolved to live right here. AI will best just fine out there though........
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI‑thematic hedge fund Situational Awareness LP is built around his thesis that rapid AGI scaling will massively re-rate compute, power, and AI infrastructure assets. Worth paying attention to.
Core long equity positions
- Bloom Energy (BE) – fuel‑cell power for data center
- CoreWeave (CRWV) – AI cloud / GPU data‑center operators
- SanDisk (SNDK) – storage hardware for AI infrastructure
Crypto miners pivoting to AI compute
- Core Scientific (CORZ) – one of the largest crypto‑to‑AI infrastructure plays, around mid‑single‑digit percentage of the book.
- Iris/Iren Limited (IREN) – large position tied to renewable‑heavy data centers.
- Applied Digital (APLD) – purpose‑built AI cloud / data‑center operator.
Smaller but still meaningful exposure in CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT), Cipher Mining (CIFR), Bitfarms (BITF), Bitdeer (BTDR), and Hive Digital (HIVE).
Semiconductors and AI hardware (cash longs)
Direct long positions (non‑derivative) in Intel (INTC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Micron (MU), and smaller positions in AMD and ASML, though their net exposure is shaped by the derivatives book.
Some filings and trackers also show exposure via the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on the long side
Would you want to go long on the hardware side? Surely it will eventually become a cost plus with low margins
once the smarts are in silicon no one needs SW
I disagree about SW, I think AI will require some big software investment for at least the next decade, although who knows what could happen. However surely you have to agree about the hardware aspect, there’s no long term excessive profit in churning out tons of identical silicon.
Elon Musk originally paid $44 billion
to acquire the platform—then known as Twitter—in October 2022
now he wants to sell you SpaceX and Twitter and His Grock AI for 1.75 trillion?
who is the sucker here?
this reeks of Tasmon properties, Ariadne sp? I been seen this occur before - its the trust me its all good trade
while a company makes no money, no one can value it its all hype
Yeah it seems crazy. Let’s say you want 10% a year return, it has to be worth almost $3 trillion in 5 years, seems unlikely.
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