A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; more immigrants fewer emigrants, tourism recovering, factory orders weak, livestock prices rise, NHC gets its cover, swaps lower, gold up, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Liberty Financial raised all its rates today, including its floating rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS raised its 12 and 18 month TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MORE IMMIGRANTS, FEWER EMIGRANTS
The number of NZ citizens leaving the country long-term continues declining with the lowest number of long term departures of NZ citizens in the month of April since 2022. Population growth from migration was up strongly with the the biggest net gains in migration in the year to April from China +11,975, India +11,169, Philippines +7985, Sri Lanka +4391, Nepal +2028 and the USA +2026.

VISITOR RECOVERY EXTENDS, BUT NOT THERE YET
Tourism visitor arrivals rose +2.3% in April from March. This increase is +8.0% higher than in April 2025. In turn this means we have climbed to 94% of pre-pandemic levels (April 2019). China accounted for half the increase in visitor arrivals in April, Australia a quarter. H/T Infometrics.

GOING BACKWARDS
Our factory PMI contracted in May after an April expansion. In fact it is now its lowest reading in almost a year even if it was just a minor contraction. But as BNZ noted, "potentially particularly disconcerting is the fact that, when compared to long term averages, new orders are the weakest component but stocks are the strongest. This is bad news for future production."

LIVESTOCK PRICES
Another week and farmgate prices for beef and sheep continue to rise. But this week brought no rises for venison.

NZX50 ENDING WITH A FLOURISH
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is has risen +1.2% so far today, and with a weekly rise now of +1.6%. It is down -0.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.7% so far today. A2 Milk, Heartland, Fletcher and Oceania lift the NZX50 to a strong weekly finish; Gentrack, Hallensteins, Kathmandu and AirNZ ease.

OUTLOOK UPGRADE
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Queenstown Lakes District Council's credit rating to Stable from Negative. The rating has been affirmed at 'AA-'. Key to the upgrade has been its ability to build its operating balance and moderate its leverage.

OUTLOOK DOWNGRADE
And Fitch has changed its 2026 global sovereign sector outlook to ‘deteriorating’ from ‘neutral’ because of the impact of the US-Iran war. They say they expect the conflict will weaken GDP growth, raise inflation and bond yields, and heighten geopolitical risks. New Zealand and Australia will have this drag applied in their reviews.

STILL VERY INSURABLE
The Natural Hazards Commission (ex-EQC) has secured $12.3 bln in reinsurance cover, a 20% increase and a sign insurance markets still see us as quite insurable.

SWAP RATES RETREAT
Wholesale swap rates will probably be notably lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1% at 2.68% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.83%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -3 bps at 2.65% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.51%, down -6 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +1 bp at 4.55%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -8 bps at 4.47%.

EQUITIES GLOW
The local equity market is now up +1.1% from yesterday's level. The ASX200 is up +1.9%. Tokyo is has opened up +3.5%. Hong Kong is up +1.9% and Shanghai is up +1.6% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.7%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +1.8%.

OIL PRICES RETREAT
American oil prices are down -US$5 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$86.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just under US$89.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS
There were many good late trades yesterday and some with chunky volumes. Today there are many trade again but mostly small volume ones. The price has firmed through all this by +$1 to $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RECOVERS STRONGLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$121/oz from yesterday at this time, at US$4192/oz. Silver is up +US$3.50 at just on US$67/oz.

NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is back up +20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we up +10 bps at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.8 and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN FIRMS FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,502 and up +2.3% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».