A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; more vendors take houses off the market, May prices moderate, May rents ease, Japan hikes, RBA holds, eyes on the Fed, swaps firmish, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Finance Direct trimmed its TD rates today for terms 1-3 years. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

CULMINATING?
The number of properties listed for sales fell in May, but only because many more vendors than usual took their properties off the market.

FOOD PRICES FIRMER BUT MODERATE
Broadly consistent with Infometric's tracking of Foodstuffs supplier costs, and our own earlier tracking of May grocery food prices, Stats NZ's May grocery food index rose +2.4% in May from a year ago. Overall food prices were up +3.2% from a year ago.

FUEL PRICES TOP OUT
Petrol and diesel prices dropped slightly in May, following two months of rises. Statistics New Zealand's latest Selected Price Indexes (SPI) figures, showed from April to May, petrol prices decreased -3.8% while diesel prices fell -11.4%. This follows petrol prices rising +34% and diesel a massive +95% over the two months from February. In the year to May, prices for these two fuel types increased - petrol was up +29% and diesel was up +77% - driven by conflict in the Middle East.

NO RENT INFLATION
Rents are also covered in the monthly Stats NZ update. These were down -0.1% in May from April to be up just +0.3% from a year ago - for all rents. For new rents on properties changing hands in May (per bond deposit filings), they were down -0.6% from April to be up just +0.7% from a year ago.

EASING LOWER?
There is another full dairy auction tomorrow morning. Futures market pricing suggests marginal softness for the powders (-0.5%) from last week's Pulse event. But the milk fats (AMF, butter) might get larger retreats (-3% ?).

NEW KIWIBANK DIRECTOR
Rukumoana Schaafhausen, already a director of Kiwi Group Capital, Kiwibank's non-operating holding company, has been named a Kiwibank director from 22 June. Schaafhausen is also a director of Tainui Group Holdings, Contact Energy, and Watercare Services, and a trustee of The Tindall Foundation.

NZX50 FLAT, MISSES GLOBAL RELIEF RALLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed so far today, with a weekly rise now of +1.1%. It is down -0.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has recovered +0.5% so far today after the big retreats in the past few sessions. SkyCity casino jumps +11% as investors applaud its focus on profits after many years of asset expansion. There are notable rises also for Channel Infrastructure, Precinct, and Contact, while EBOS, Spark, Napier Port and Gentrack retreat.

PRICES STILL FALLING, BUT NEW POCKETS OF TURNAROUND
In China, new home prices were -3.5% lower in May from a year ago, matching April’s pace and that extends their consecutive decline to almost 3 years. Second hand home prices fell at a faster rate in the 70 major cities that their official data tracks. But there are new pockets where increases are starting to show up, even for pre-owned homes.

MORE CREDIBLE
China said its industrial production expanded +4.5% in May from a year ago, better than the +4.1% in April and better than the expected +4.3%. And their electricity production rose +4.2% in the same period, giving some cred to the industrial production claims (which has been occasionally absent in previous months).

CHINESE CONSUMERS TURN CAUTIOUS
But China's retail sales actually fell -0.6% in May from the same month in 2026, following an easing pattern that started in March, and the first decline in retail sales there since December 2022. But much of this weakness is due to lower car  buying which was down -16%. Sales of home appliances and audiovisual equipment was also down -16%, home improvement down -11%, gold and silver jewelry down -9%, and furniture down -8.7%. Turning up sharply were beverages and tobacco, clothing and cosmetics, comfort items popular when things are stressful.

JAPAN HIKES
As expected, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% today in a 7-1 majority decision. This new rate is its highest in 31 years.

CONDITIONS SLIP BACK
In Australia, momentum in their manufacturing sector stalled heading into mid-year, with conditions slipping back neutral after a short-lived recovery. The Middle East conflict is reigniting cost pressures across the industry, according to the latest update of ACCI-Westpac Business Survey for the June quarter.

EYES ON THE RBA ...
Meanwhile, we are awaiting today's upcoming RBA rate decision. Markets confidently expect no change. We will link to it when it is released. Update: The RBA unanimously agreed to hold their cash rate target at 4.35%.

... AND ON THE US FED
And then there is the US Fed decision which we will get early Thursday morning. It is Warsh's first meeting as chairman. Markets expect no change - and less transparency in the related press conference.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.68% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps at 4.85%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.61% today after their unsurprising rate decision today (see above). The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.48%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -6 bps at 4.41%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps at 4.47%.

EQUITIES FLAT, EXCEPT IN THE US
The local equity market is now little-changed from yesterday, if soft. The ASX200 is down -0.5%. Tokyo is has opened down -0.1%. Hong Kong is down -1.4% and Shanghai is up just +0.1% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.3%. Wall Street opened its week strongly with the S&P500 up +1.7% in Monday trade. Futures trade suggests Tuesday trade will open up another +0.8%.

OIL PRICES HOLD
American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just over US$80.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just over US$83/bbl and little-changed.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There has been a good level of trading today but the price is still holding at $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$8/oz from this time yesterday, at US$4319/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at just on US$69.50/oz.

NZD FALLS BACK
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we down -30 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.7 and down -40 bps from this time time yesterday.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$65,714 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.

ALL-WHITES CAPTURE EYEBALLS
We noticed a large falloff in our readership today, down a massive -30% while the game was on. Welcome back now. Final score 2-2.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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