Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Finance Direct trimmed its TD rates today for terms 1-3 years. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CULMINATING?
The number of properties listed for sales fell in May, but only because many more vendors than usual took their properties off the market.
FOOD PRICES FIRMER BUT MODERATE
Broadly consistent with Infometric's tracking of Foodstuffs supplier costs, and our own earlier tracking of May grocery food prices, Stats NZ's May grocery food index rose +2.4% in May from a year ago. Overall food prices were up +3.2% from a year ago.
FUEL PRICES TOP OUT
Petrol and diesel prices dropped slightly in May, following two months of rises. Statistics New Zealand's latest Selected Price Indexes (SPI) figures, showed from April to May, petrol prices decreased -3.8% while diesel prices fell -11.4%. This follows petrol prices rising +34% and diesel a massive +95% over the two months from February. In the year to May, prices for these two fuel types increased - petrol was up +29% and diesel was up +77% - driven by conflict in the Middle East.
NO RENT INFLATION
Rents are also covered in the monthly Stats NZ update. These were down -0.1% in May from April to be up just +0.3% from a year ago - for all rents. For new rents on properties changing hands in May (per bond deposit filings), they were down -0.6% from April to be up just +0.7% from a year ago.
EASING LOWER?
There is another full dairy auction tomorrow morning. Futures market pricing suggests marginal softness for the powders (-0.5%) from last week's Pulse event. But the milk fats (AMF, butter) might get larger retreats (-3% ?).
NEW KIWIBANK DIRECTOR
Rukumoana Schaafhausen, already a director of Kiwi Group Capital, Kiwibank's non-operating holding company, has been named a Kiwibank director from 22 June. Schaafhausen is also a director of Tainui Group Holdings, Contact Energy, and Watercare Services, and a trustee of The Tindall Foundation.
NZX50 FLAT, MISSES GLOBAL RELIEF RALLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed so far today, with a weekly rise now of +1.1%. It is down -0.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has recovered +0.5% so far today after the big retreats in the past few sessions. SkyCity casino jumps +11% as investors applaud its focus on profits after many years of asset expansion. There are notable rises also for Channel Infrastructure, Precinct, and Contact, while EBOS, Spark, Napier Port and Gentrack retreat.
PRICES STILL FALLING, BUT NEW POCKETS OF TURNAROUND
In China, new home prices were -3.5% lower in May from a year ago, matching April’s pace and that extends their consecutive decline to almost 3 years. Second hand home prices fell at a faster rate in the 70 major cities that their official data tracks. But there are new pockets where increases are starting to show up, even for pre-owned homes.
MORE CREDIBLE
China said its industrial production expanded +4.5% in May from a year ago, better than the +4.1% in April and better than the expected +4.3%. And their electricity production rose +4.2% in the same period, giving some cred to the industrial production claims (which has been occasionally absent in previous months).
CHINESE CONSUMERS TURN CAUTIOUS
But China's retail sales actually fell -0.6% in May from the same month in 2026, following an easing pattern that started in March, and the first decline in retail sales there since December 2022. But much of this weakness is due to lower car buying which was down -16%. Sales of home appliances and audiovisual equipment was also down -16%, home improvement down -11%, gold and silver jewelry down -9%, and furniture down -8.7%. Turning up sharply were beverages and tobacco, clothing and cosmetics, comfort items popular when things are stressful.
JAPAN HIKES
As expected, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% today in a 7-1 majority decision. This new rate is its highest in 31 years.
CONDITIONS SLIP BACK
In Australia, momentum in their manufacturing sector stalled heading into mid-year, with conditions slipping back neutral after a short-lived recovery. The Middle East conflict is reigniting cost pressures across the industry, according to the latest update of ACCI-Westpac Business Survey for the June quarter.
EYES ON THE RBA ...
Meanwhile, we are awaiting today's upcoming RBA rate decision. Markets confidently expect no change. We will link to it when it is released. Update: The RBA agreed unanimously to hold their cash rate target at 4.35%.
... AND ON THE US FED
And then there is the US Fed decision which we will get early Thursday morning. It is Warsh's first meeting as chairman. Markets expect no change - and less transparency in the related press conference.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally firmer today. Update: In the end, they weren't. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.68% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps at 4.85%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.61% today after their unsurprising rate decision today (see above). The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.48%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -6 bps at 4.41%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps at 4.47%.
EQUITIES FLAT, EXCEPT IN THE US
The local equity market is now little-changed from yesterday, if soft. The ASX200 is down -0.5%. Tokyo is has opened down -0.1%. Hong Kong is down -1.4% and Shanghai is up just +0.1% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.3%. Wall Street opened its week strongly with the S&P500 up +1.7% in Monday trade. Futures trade suggests Tuesday trade will open up another +0.8%.
OIL PRICES HOLD
American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just over US$80.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just over US$83/bbl and little-changed.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There has been a good level of trading today but the price is still holding at $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$8/oz from this time yesterday, at US$4319/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at just on US$69.50/oz.
NZD FALLS BACK
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we down -30 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.7 and down -40 bps from this time time yesterday.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$65,714 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.
ALL-WHITES CAPTURE EYEBALLS
We noticed a large falloff in our readership today, down a massive -30% while the game was on. Welcome back now. Final score 2-2.
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11 Comments
ALL-WHITES CAPTURE EYEBALLS
We noticed a large falloff in our readership today, down a massive -30% while the game was on. Welcome back now. Final score 2-2.
The coalition government now have another excuse for NZ failing to climb out of recession - no one is doing any work for the next month.
Hospitality will be very productive
Surely someone has to be fired over this?
I have been involved in having to take a project back to exco level CFO CEO CTO and say the vendor cannot actually deliver
Its very very hard, as often this team where involved in the governance and sign off from procurement... its a dead giveaway when there is no decent recorded documentation from project initiation, that you as a PM are in big big trouble.
I learnt a lot by doing it. you need the support of at least one of the c suite. It never ends well, I have seen between $3.9 mil NZD and 16 mil GBP write offs. In my experience the best interview questions you can ask a PM etc is about the disasters... and how they dealt with them.
God knows what a Gov Dept looks like, not one ever takes responsibility its always a team decision. There is a reason I am not suited to Gov work, But perhaps I could be poacher become game keeper one day.
Most Contract PMs would have just moved on to a different project, its hard , often the pressure is that its just you that cannot deliver a different PM could, but if the project initiation stage was a mess you cannot come in later and fix things, I will bet my house this project went through multiple PMs / contract managers etc
No surprises there.
As you occasionally note, there's never just 1 cockroach
I am also willing to bet that few on the steerco had decent experience in the governance of large IT projects.
They would have just been the most senior of the crowd in power. Most steerco members tend to be cheerleaders of their own decisions and appointments, not governance focused!
If a big consultancy were on steerco then time to sue them.
A good experienced steerco person can reach out to the PM and help ask the right questions in front of other steerco members...
Its time to prepare witness statements boys!
One last thing
Mike Hosking raised this on Monday after returning from holiday and having to fill in forms and no e scan
he then directly F*&^^%ked the PM by asking why this is still occuirng during the Monday timeslot
Embarassing for an ex Air NZ CEO who damn well knows this is a mess, travelling so much
Suddenly the Minister is outraged, I can smell the BS from here. They wanted to hide this so close to the election as it recks of the lack of governance they blame Labour for (even tho only 31mil not 100Bil)
Well done Mike and the Newstalk team who played this perfectly.
what a co incidence released Tuesday, Mike next Monday your Friend Luxy has some splaining to do.... poor bastard probably expected an easy Monday, ES no longer dep PM material, he has managed that challenger...
Confidence in her officials ‘knocked’, minister says
Stanford said her confidence in her officials has been “knocked” by the revelations in the report released on Tuesday.
“I said when I became minister, after this initial misinformation was provided to me, that I have a lack of confidence. I remember looking [former-chief executive] Carolyn Tremain in the eye, and I said to her; ‘Do not underestimate how upset I am about this, and we're going to have to build back some confidence’.”
Stanford said she recalls using the phrase "bring out your dead“ to make her point. ”I want to know whatever there is that you need to tell me, so that we can resolve it,“ she recalls saying at the time.
She said on Tuesday it is “sad” that did not happen.
Robbo gave the increase no questions asked, and little also it would appear. Robbo doesn't surprise anyone given his dealings with the COVID fund for projects, and Little I would have expected better oversight and analysis. It all adds to the lack of oversight from 2020 and National will be wearing it as they buck stops with them currently.
Korean banks starting to worry about retail loans fueling MARGIN trades on KOSPI
Retail credit cards , home loans... what could possibly go wrong, cannot loose margin trading ?
https://pulse.mk.co.kr/news/english/12072543
According to data released by financial authorities, household loans across the entire financial sector increased by 9.3 trillion won in May, nearly three times the 3.5 trillion won increase recorded a month earlier.
This is fine.....
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