A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; OCR hiked but no bank has responded yet, house values decline, dairy prices retreat, Morrisons global ambitions get a boost, swaps rise, NZD soft, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None to report today. Unusually no bank has moved yet after the OCR hike. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

OCR RISES +25 BPS TO 2.5% "TO GET INFLATION BACK TO 2%"
Today the RBNZ raised its OCR rate by +25 bps to 2.5% in a consensus decision. They are hinting at more hikes. The last time the OCR was raised was in May 2023. The next OCR review is on September 2, 2026 (and the general election is on November 7, 2026). More here.

THE DECLINES ARE ADDING UP
QV says average dwelling values are in a slow decline in most parts of NZ. Their House Price Index shows the average dwelling value is down -0.4% in the June quarter, now down almost -15% from 2022 peak. On an after-CPI-inflation basis it is down more than -25%.

DAIRY PRICES RETREAT
There was another dairy auction overnight, a full one with new season volumes returning. But this one came in sharply lower, down -4.9% on USD terms although only a -2.5% retreat in NZD terms. Among the results, there was a notable -4.4% fall for WMP, a -7.0% fall for SMP, a -5% fall for butter and a large -12.3% fall for cheddar cheese. A few of the minor categories gained. But these falls were larger than the futures market was pricing in, so you have to say they are 'larger than expected'. While the new lower levels aren't that special in a longer perspective, the speed of the falls is concerning and analysts will be re-assessing their payout forecasts.

NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.6% so far today, even after the OCR hike (which had little impact on trading), with a weekly rise pared back to +0.5%. It is now down -0.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up +6.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% so far today. NZX, Oceania, Precinct and Channel Infrastructure gain to offset losses from Summerset, Gentrack, SkyCity casino and F&P Healthcare.

MORRISON GETS SUMITOMO MITSUI MANDATE - AND EQUITY INJECTION
Morrisons (the power behind Infratil), has reached an agreement with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (SuMiTB), Japan’s leading trust bank, to be its preferred global infrastructure manager as part of a US$2.0 bln+ long-term strategic partnership. Under the partnership, SuMiTB will make an initial US$500 mln commitment into Morrison’s global private market Core Plus and Value-add strategies, as the first step in facilitating the deployment of broad-based Japanese capital into high-quality infrastructure opportunities worldwide. SuMiTB and Morrison have also agreed a US$1.5 bln+ long-term collaboration agreement which will include raising third-party capital for each other’s infrastructure investment products in their home markets, as well as the development of new infrastructure investment products for Japanese and global investors. In addition to the broader partnership, SuMiTB will subscribe for new equity in Morrison resulting in a 15% ownership stake.

MOBILE NETWORK PROBLEMS
In Australia, telco Telstra has had major issues with its mobile network affecting millions and causing widespread transport and payment delays. Most of their services are now restored however.

SETTLING BACK BUT AT A HIGHER LEVEL
The New York Fed's global supply chain pressure index eased back in June after its April and May spikes. (Of course, with today's resumption by the US of its bombing of Iran, this is likely to flare up again in July.)

SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates were notably higher after the OCR decision (+6 bps). Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 2.73% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 4.89% from yesterday at this time. The China 10 year bond rate up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up another +5 bps at 2.88% today and a new high since 1996. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.55%, up +11 bps. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate up +1 bp at 4.43%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +8 bp at 4.56%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market is softer from yesterday, now down -0.7%. The ASX200 is down -0.9% so far. Tokyo has opened down -0.7%. Hong Kong has risen +2.0% but Shanghai is unchanged at its open today. Singapore is up +0.7% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session with the S&P500 -0.4% lower. The Nasdaq had a -1.2% retreat.

OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices are up +US$3.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$72.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$76/bbl. This is after more attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and excalating US attacks on Iran that followed.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been more and larger trades today but the price has remained at $53.75/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$10/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4125/oz. Silver is down -another 75 USc at just on US$60.50/oz.

NZD SLIGHTLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is rose a minor +10 bps against the USD immediately after the OCR hike decision but only back to where it was yesterday, now just on 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.9 and up +10 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN DIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,006 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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