Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today for the long weekend (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
UnityMoney has raised its one year FHB 'special' by +6 bps. There is still no announcement from ANZ on its new floating rate. Update: ANZ has confirmed its +25 bps rise to its floating rates. Now that the OCR easing cycle is over, we have calculated that floating rate borrowers were short-changed at least -40 bps in this period. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here so far today. Update: ANZ's savings accounts will rise by +25 bps, although its Serious Saver won't get there until August 1All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
NO CHANGE
Despite the OCR hike last week, our survey of banks show no change in test rates have followed so far.
A MINOR EXPANSION
According to the BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index, the services sector returned to expansion in June, having spent recent months in contraction. But there’s not as much optimism in the services sector as there is among manufacturers. It is the 'new business' component that drove this improvement, led by services supporting the rural sector. Worryingly, the employment data remains the weakest component. All eyes now turn to tomorrow's NZIER QSBO business sentiment survey to see if that also points to recovery.
SUPPLY UP, DEMAND DOWN
Fonterra has trimmed its milk payout forecast. It has cut its farmgate milk payout forecast for the new season by -5%, citing strong global supply and softer demand.
STAYING LOW
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in May was little changed from the prior month, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs Grocery Supplier Cost Index showing an average +2.1% increase in what suppliers charged in June 2026, compared with a year earlier. That is the same low change they reported in June 2025.
CONFIRMING THE DOLCRUMS
In updated March data, the RBNZ is reporting that the total value of all housing stock is now $1.67 tln, and -5.7% below the December 2022 all-time high. But, even after adding new-builds, it is only up +1.5% above year-ago levels or $24 bln for that year and only growing because of those new-builds. This data confirms what Cotality and QV have been reporting - there is no overall housing market 'value growth'.
NZX50 EASES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today to start the new week, with a weekly rise of +1.0%. It is now up +0.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up +8.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is also down -0.3% so far today. NZX, Skellerup, Spark and Kiwi Property are gaining; SkyCity casino, a2 Milk, Vulcan Steel, and Vista are the main decliners.
LOWER TRADING
NZGB government bond turnover on the secondary market totaled $67.2 bln last week. As large as that number seems, it was the second lowest week of 2025 (excepting the New Year holiday period).
A LICENSE TO STEAL
In Australia, US AI heavyweight Anthropic wants the Australian Government to change its copyright laws, giving it a text-and-data-mining exemption to allow it to legally scrape and use copyrighted text, art, and music to train its Claude AI models without needing to pay creators for permission. (At least they are seeking a law-change permission, unlike Musk's xAI which just takes it regardless of the law. Either way, the future looks very tough for original creators.)
A SMALL BOUNCEBACK
Weekend auction clearance rates rose in some key Aussie main cities, specifically Sydney (to 53%) and Melbourne (to 56%) although remain very low in Brisbane (24%).
SWAP RATES HAVE UPSIDE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be firmer again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +9 bps at 2.83% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.87% from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate unchanged at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.76% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.65%, up another +4 bps from this morning. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +7 bps at 4.58%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps at 4.59% and their highest since mid-May.
EQUITIES ALL SLIGHTLY LOWER
The local equity market is softer from Friday, now down -0.3% so far. And the ASX200 is down -0.4% so far. Tokyo has opened down -1.1%. Hong Kong has dipped -0.1% and Shanghai is down -1.3% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.1% at its open. Wall Street futures suggest the S&P500 will open marginally +0.1% firmer. The Nasdaq 100 futures suggest a -0.5% dip is ahead.
OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices are up another +US$3 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now just under US$74.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$79/bbl and up +US$3. This is after more attacks on ships in a widening escalation, the latest one requiring abandoning the vessel which is on fire.
CARBON PRICE LITTLE CHANGED
There have been very few trades today and the price has held at $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$52/oz from this morning, to start the week now at US$4068/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at just on US$58/oz.
NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar has held little-changed against the USD from this morning, now just on 57.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.6 and up +10 bps from this morning's open.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,302 and down -1.2% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 0.8%.
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3 Comments
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in May was little changed from the prior month, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs Grocery Supplier Cost Index showing an average +2.1% increase in what suppliers charged in June 2026, compared with a year earlier. That is the same low change they reported in June 2025.
Who should be believe? Just bought milk at 4.88$ for a 2 liter. I checked last weeks grocery receipt: Last week it was $4.75. An old April receipt was telling me: 4.59$. I believe that Infometrics is being used!
Quote from AFR: "The Reserve Bank of Australia is bracing for mounting defaults across the ballooning private credit sector and is concerned that any financial shock from the industry will be exacerbated by highly concentrated loan books in the property sector among fund managers."
The RBA is concerned about the heavy exposure of local pvte credit funds to real estate and construction. ASIC feels that a “housing price crash, or sustained increase in construction costs” could upset the Jenga tower.
My reckon is that exposure is larger than what the institutions really understand. Hospo is a massive concentration of debt excess in Sydney.
Short term mortgage rates will be going higher in the coming weeks given the sharp movements especially in the 1 year swap rate.
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