Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Cooperative Bank increased its floating rate by +25 bps late late yesterday. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank changed many savings account rates, mostly by less than +25 bps however. Xceda has trimmed all its TD rates, which comes after its credit rating (by Equifax) was raised on notch to BB-. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CHASING BUYERS WITH LOWER ASKING PRICES
Average asking prices on the Trade Me Property portal are down by more than -$60,000 from their summer peak. Auckland and the West Coast recorded the biggest drops in average asking prices over winter.
RISK BASED PRICING SEES INSURANCE QUOTES DIVERGE
The house insurance quote gap hits $1400, Quashed data shows. This price difference between lowest and highest quotes for same type of cover across insurance providers has ‘widened significantly’ with risk-based pricing raised as a likely reason why.
BIG TRADE MEETING
Ten trade ministers and up to 100 delegates representing 21 countries are in Auckland for "one of the most significant international trade meetings New Zealand has hosted in two decades". This is the second Future of Investment and Trade (FITP) Partnership ministerial meeting, bringing together economies from Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific. New Zealand is a founding member of the FIT Partnership, which includes Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Costa Rica, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Malaysia, Morocco, Norway, Panama, Paraguay, Rwanda, Singapore, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates and Uruguay.
NZX50 LITTLE-CHANGED
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today, now with essentially no weekly change. It is also down -0.4% from six months ago. But from a year ago it is now up +7.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.7% so far today. Napier Port, Mainfreight, SkyCity casino and Ryman advance while a2 Milk, Auckland Airport, Summerset and Scales retreat.
$20 BLN OVERSUBSCRIBED
There is no regular NZGB bond tender today. That was cancelled because they launched a May 2038 bond by syndication on Tuesday, raising $7.0 bln. That was issued with a YTM of 4.84% after bids of more than $26.7 bln were received. That was the largest oversubscription level ($19.7 bln) they have ever had for a syndication since they used this technique starting in 2012. But it is consistent with the three-times-oversubscribed rate regular NZGB tenders have had in 2026.
TAKING THE LONG VIEW
Farmer co-operative Livestock Improvement Corporation has released its full year results to May 2026 revealing revenues up +6.7% to $315 mln, tax-paid profit of $21.3 mln, down -30% but underlying earnings little-changed as it prioritised rising R&D investment (+18%).
NO LONGER EBULENT
A bit like for dairy prices, buyer resistance is coming for wool prices now given their high recent levels. The largest declines were seen in second shear fleece wool and oddments. Rather than the expected levelling of prices following the strong gains in May and June, the market fell sharply. Most European mills are currently closed for summer holidays, and the markets of China and India appear to be taking a ‘wait and see’ approach before placing new orders. The speed and volatility of these price movements are creating challenging conditions for wool growers, brokers and exporters.
LOWER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
In Australia, the respected Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations, has come in with a 4.7% July result after it's 5.5% in June after topping out at 5.9% in April. Australia's official inflation was 4.0% in May after topping out at 4.2% in April. Their June CPI is due to be released on Wednesday, July 29.
BILLIONAIRE TENTACLES
Just how captured Pauline Hanson has been by Aussie mining magnate Gina Reinhart has been revealed by images of her swimming on the pool deck at the rich-lister Grand Hotel San Pietro in Sicily, where Hanson had been with Rinehart after meeting right-wing firebrand (and Putin excuser) Tommy Robinson in the UK. Hanson is Rinehart's 'useful idiot'.
KOREA HIKES
In Korea, their central bank has raised its policy rate today, raising it from 2.5% to 2.75%. This was as expected however. It was their first rise in more than three years as it grapples with inflationary pressure at least partially stemming from a faster economic expansion. Their previous change was a cut of -25 bps in May 2025.
SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates will likely be slightly lower again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.86% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged from yesterday at 4.90%. The China 10 year bond rate up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.69% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.68%, unchanged from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate up +2 bps at 4.68%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.56%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is holding from yesterday, now up a minor +0.1% so far. But the ASX200 is down -0.3%. Tokyo has opened down -2.8%. However Hong Kong is up +1.7% but Shanghai is down -0.8% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday up +0.4% on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq up +0.6%.
OIL PRICES LITTLE-CHANGED
American oil prices are little-changed from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$80/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$85/bbl and down almost -US$1.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades so far today but the price has dipped very slightly to $53.80/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint. (For reference, the EU carbon price has been rising since early March 2026 and is now €81.20/tonne, equivalent to NZ$157/tonne. In Australia their carbon credits are $37.60/tonne - NZ$45.50. In the US, they are US$30, or NZ$51.50.)
GOLD ON HOLD, SILVER RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$6/oz from yesterday, now at US$4031/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just on US$57/oz.
NZD RISES AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar has firmed against the USD from this time yesterday, now just on 58.4 USc and up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.2 and up +20 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,621 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just over +/- 0.8%.
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1 Comments
Tsinghua's Li Daokui, one of China's most prominent economists, calls for an increasingly urgent response to problems in the Chinese economy, focusing mainly on policies to unleash constraints on the ability of local governments to continue to power growth: "Specifically, after completing major infrastructure projects, local govts have become preoccupied with repaying their debts. Because interest rates remain high, the more debt they repay, the greater the total debt burden becomes. This process absorbs enormous amounts of economic and financial energy without converting that energy into actual output or productivity."
He recommends reducing "blockage" at the local-govt level by exploiting the relatively clean balance sheet of the central govt - a shift in the locus of debt creation from local-govt balance sheets to the central govt. If productive investment opportunities exist that local govts are unable to access because of their bloated balance sheets, this makes sense.
But this proposed policy response is to accelerate debt creation even further, partly, he says, to fund local-govt repurchases of empty apartments and partly to improve benefits to migrant workers. Michael Pettis reckons not enough people see China's extremely high and rapidly-rising debt burden as the main medium-term problem facing China, perhaps because the only way to address the debt burden requires much slower growth, and as of now this is still politically unacceptable, especially if real Chinese unemployment is closer to the 10.2% Li believes it to be than the 5.0% official rate published earlier today.
Pettis goes in to say Chinese economists are becoming increasingly vocal about the deep difficulties the very-unbalanced Chinese economy faces. He reckons they are still not willing to acknowledge just how difficult it will be to address these imbalances, nor to recognize that the longer Beijing postpones the adjustment, the more disruptive it is likely to be.
https://www.yuzhehe.com/p/chinas-economy-faces-an-overall-cooling?r=24u…
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