Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
NBS has raised some fixed rates today. Kiwibank has still yet to move up in this cycle. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ increased some term deposit rates today. And so did Rabobank, Heartland, and AMP. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
TO SELL YOU NEED TO MEET THE [CURRENT] MARKET
Realestate.co.nz says vendors need to price their properties to meet the current market rather than hold out for 2021 prices. That is because the housing market's mid-winter stock levels are now at a 12-year high.
ARRESTED AT BORDER ON RETURN
A defendant who is alleged by the Serious Fraud Office to have been involved in an investment fraud scheme was arrested after returning to New Zealand. Serene Peters faces one charge of obtaining by deception related to a $1.8 mln investment fraud. She has been overseas since September 2023 and was arrested at the border on her return to Auckland. She is one of five defendants that have been charged by the SFO in relation to this case. Two of Mrs Peters’ sons, Christopher Peters and Francis Peters, and associate Gur Raj Bhachu have previously pleaded guilty to their part in the wider scheme, which involved fraudulently obtaining credit and properties. Mrs Peters’ son Gerard Peters has also been charged.
NZX50 DOWN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.8% today, but up +1.1% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +3.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.4% so far today. Synlait Milk, Tourism Holdings, Napier Port, Mercury and Scales lead the gainers. Oceania, Auckland Airport, Spark and SkyTV led the decliners.
STILL TOUGH FOR KEY HORT MARKETER
T&G Global released its half year profit result, claiming sales momentum (+3%). But at the same time it still reported a loss of just less than -$1 mln for the period, even if it is down by -73%.
HEARTLAND MAINTAINS DATE FOR TSB SHAREHOLDER VOTE, FOR NOW
Heartland Group Holdings says there's currently no change to the timeline for its proposed acquisition of TSB, with the Heartland special shareholder meeting still scheduled for September 30, where its shareholders will vote on the proposed transaction. This comes with an interlocutory application filed by the Taranaki Community Accountability Society Incorporated against the trustees of TSB's shareholder the Toi Foundation in the High Court. The Interlocutory Application challenges Toi Foundation’s community consultation and decision making process, and seeks to restrain the trustees of the Toi Foundation from voting on the proposed transaction on an interim basis until the resolution of the court proceedings, Heartland says. Meanwhile, the "Toi Foundation is confident that its community submissions process is being conducted in a fair and appropriate way, including taking steps that exceed the requirements of Toi Foundation’s Trust Deed, and that it is acting, and has acted, in a prudent, responsible and lawful manner."
MONETISING SOE DEBT
The Crown is selling the debt contracts it holds in Chorus so it can fund more infrastructure, and claim this delivers net proceeds of about $700 mln.
SAFETY A HARD SELL
Beef exports, especially to the US, are coming up against price competition from Brazilian and Argentine beef, even if those alternates are heavy in antibiotics. US buyers are using the price difference against our exporters. The price premium our product gets is being narrowed in a market that seems to care less about the presence of widespread antibiotic use. This may cap farm-gate pricing here.
CHINA'S EXPORTS RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED
China’s exports surged almost 24% to US$398 bln in July in a better than expected result. The gains were driven by strong demand for AI-related technology products and a rush by manufacturers to ship goods to the US ahead of potential new tariffs. Outbound shipments to the US rose +17%, the EU by +16%, and and to ASEAN nations by +38%.
SWAP RATES HOLD FIRM
Wholesale swap rates may be marginally firmer again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.93% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps from yesterday at 4.99%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding just over at 1.70%. The Japanese 10 year bond is still at 2.78% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.73% and up +2 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +2 bps at 4.68%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +7 bps, now at 4.68%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now down -0.6%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is down just -0.1%. Tokyo has opened down -1.0%. Hong Kong is little-changed but Shanghai is up +0.5% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.7% at its open. South Korea is has resumed its retreat, although not a hard one today, so far at least. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down another -0.2% and the Nasdaq was down marginally.
OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices have risen +US$2.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$78/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$83.50/bbl and up +US$4.
CARBON PRICE STABLE
There have been a few good trades again today and the price has held at $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$15/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4260/oz. Silver is now just over US$62/oz and little-changed.
NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at just over 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.3 and down -20 bps.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,276 and down -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.6%.
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7 Comments
Opinion | Christopher Joye
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/there-s-a-fatal-flaw-in-elon…
There’s a fatal flaw in Elon Musk’s abundance utopia
In the tycoon’s telling, humanity is on the cusp of “sustainable abundance”. Work is optional. Poverty is abolished. It is a beguiling vision, but also naive.
Got to love how Joye can cut through the crap
Musk predicts we will be “desperately fighting deflation”. Governments respond by simply issuing cash to citizens – not universal basic income but “universal high income” – and money itself eventually becomes irrelevant. Work is optional. Poverty is abolished.
As PDK would say - everyone cannot have everything in a finite world. A universal basic income sounds like
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
It highlights the hypocrisy of leaders who use lofty ideals of equality to gain power, only to create a privileged ruling class for themselves, perhaps being provided a higher basic income.
I never figured Musk for a Magic Money Tree acolyte - except for himself
Its funny the guys who shorted the IPO have made more money then the investors, that's inconvenient, as soon as the lockup period ends you will see a huge number of insiders selling out before they board the rockets to Mars, you cannot blame them they have made huge returns and possibly want to diversify their portfolio for ... diversity.
In the book "The intelligent investor", Graham cynically refers to IPO as "It's Probably Overpriced" or "Imaginary Profits Only" or "Insider's Profit Opportunity" if I remember well.
My Food Bag IPO got the Trifecta!
He's clearly on the spectrum, and I suspect he can't read a room.
But he will be intensely aware of the finite nature of the planet, and our trajectory on it. Hence the dream of living as a brain forever, with robotic AI body.
Didn't factor in energy, or entropy, in that dream. Which was exactly the comment near the end of Don't Look Up, re their cryogenic attrition-rate.
Quite a good discussion about NZ Superannuation. Don't let them gaslight you!
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