A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; a floating rate drop, consumer confidence sags, Barfoot sales volumes up on lower prices, swaps dive, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
China Construction Bank has cut many standard fixed rates today but left its market-leading 'specials' unchanged. In addition, they cut their variable home loan rate to 5.50% which is a market leading level and -20 bps lower than most main banks..

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union has trimmed many term deposit rates today.

'WARNING SHOT'
Consumer confidence, as measured monthly by Roy Morgan, dipped in July to its lowest level in 2019 and threatening the 2015 lows. Regional divergence was a key theme, with Wellington confidence up marginally but Auckland dropping sharply. The least-confident region is the South Island excluding Canterbury.

PRICE CUTS WORK
In Auckland, the largest realtor reported July results today. Barfoot & Thompson's median selling price dropped more than -5% month-on-month in July but sales volumes rose +12%. Lower prices are unlocking sales. The median Auckland selling price is now barely above $800,000 with highest July sales volumes in three years.

FLASHING RED
If you usually skip reading the Swap Rate item below, I suggest you take the time to do so today. There are very serious movements going on in the money markets, flashing red.

GRIM AUSSIE RETAIL SALES
June retail trade data out in Australia today isn't especially encouraging. June 2019 retail turnover is up just +1.9% from the same month a year ago and given that Aussie inflation is +1.6%, this is a very anemic result. In fact, if it wasn't for food (groceries, eating out, etc), there would have been almost no growth (+0.5% with inflation at 1.6%).

ACTIVE SUPPRESSION
We should also note that the Chinese Consul General in Auckland has put out a Statement supporting the thugs at Auckland University for physically attacking Hong Kong students, praising their defence of "the rule of law" (no kidding). It is clear that Chinese government offices here are attempting to suppress free speech. The reach into our communities of Chinese secret police activity is a serious worry.

EQUITIES DROP HARD
The -1% drop for Wall Street equities earlier today (actually more, because because they were up about +1% before the latest Trump tariff announcement), is being followed in Shanghai (down -1.7%), Hong Kong (-2.2%) and Tokyo (-2.4%). Locally, the ASX200 is down -0.5% and the NZX50 is down -0.1%.

SWAP RATES DIVE
Wholesale swap rates dived today across the curve. The two year is down by -4 basis points, the five year is down by -7 bps and the ten year is lower by -10 bps. These are HUGE moves. That means the 1-5 swap curve is now a negative -5 bps and the 2-10 curve down to just +34 bps. The 90-day bank bill rate has slipped another -2 bps to 1.46%. Australian swap rates are also a little softer today, although only by -2 to -3 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -11 bps to 1.09%. The China Govt 10yr is down -5 bps at 3.14%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr down -9 bps today 1.39%. The UST 10yr yield is now at just 1.88%, and down an eye-watering -16 bps since this time yesterday. Bond markets are flashing serious warning signals.

NZ DOLLAR DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is marginally weaker today, but not by much, and is now just on 65.4 USc. Against the Aussie we firmer at 96.1 AU cents. Against the euro we are fractionally softer at 59.1 euro cents. That all means the TWI-5 is now down at 70.9.

BITCOIN FIRMS
Bitcoin is firmer today at US$10,389 and up +4% since this time yesterday with a rally that started about nine hours ago. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This chart is animated here.