A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; still no rate changes, ASB changes a key fee, truck signals, card signals, water update, swaps rise strongly, NZD firm, & much more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; still no rate changes, ASB changes a key fee, truck signals, card signals, water update, swaps rise strongly, NZD firm, & much more
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Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today, so far.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either

FEE CHANGE
ASB has announced higher fees for homeowners who use their Orbit revolving credit system - if the balance is over $250,000. Their fees will be unchanged for balances between $100,000 and $250,00, and halved for those who borrow under $100,000. The bank says over 65% of customers for this product will see their fee halved, and over 20% of customers will see no change to their current fee. ASB's Orbit product has an interest rate of 5.30% and with fees where the loan is $250,000, the 'comparison rate' will become 5.42%. (ASB's variable rate is 5.20%.) The only fees for home loan products in New Zealand seem to be on revolving credit products, although a few (Kiwibank, SBS Bank) don't charge them.

A GENDER THING?
New research from Roy Morgan shows that women are significantly more likely to use buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) payment services such as Afterpay than men. Over one-in-ten women (11.6%) report using a BNPL service in the last year compared to only 5.5% of men.

END OF THE LINE
The IRD and ACC say they will no longer accept cheques "from customers who are able to use alternate payment options". The change comes in March 2020.

"FALLEN OFF A LEDGE"
ANZ has reported its August Truckometer data. They say: "The ANZ Truckometer indexes were not particularly strong in August. The Light Traffic Index rose 0.3% m/m while the Heavy Traffic fell 4.2% m/m. Annual growth in the Light Traffic Index has fallen off its ledge, suggesting that annual GDP growth remains in a trend decline. The level of the Heavy Traffic Index has flattened right off – we suspect the reduction in logging activity due to a sharp price fall was a big contributor. It is not sending good signals about Q3 GDP, though there is a month’s data still to come."

SPENDING RECOVERS, WITHOUT PETROL
Core retail sales rose +5.0% in August from a year ago, its fastest expansion in four months and a recovery from quite weak June and July months. But spending on fuel was down more than -12% in August on the same basis. That clipped overall retail sales using electronic cards back to just a +3% gain. (In the year to August 2019 we spent about -$400 mln less on fuel than in the equivalent prior period.) This data covers the RBNZ cut in the OCR. While it seems unlikely that drove the better numbers in August, lower future mortgage payments may help keep retail spending up.

HARD WORKERS
More than 1 in 14 employed New Zealanders are working two or more jobs, Stats NZ said today. That is almost 200,000 people. The highest rates of holding multiple jobs were employed women (8.4%) and employed parents and caregivers of dependent children (8.3%), with the majority of multiple job holders aged 45 years and older (53%). More than half (58%) of those who held multiple jobs owned their own business, in comparison with 15.5% of single job holders. Of all employed people, 18.6% said that they owned their own business. 

WATER UPDATE
Our hydro lake storage has just slipped below normal in the past few days, the first time since April. We are tracking 2018 and then the below normal lasted until mid-November. Auckland's water reservoirs are filling fast again, now up to 81% full (remember they were under 70% just a few weeks ago) but still lower than the 90% 'normal'.

EATING A LUXURY?
In China, they reported their August CPI rise as +2.8%, the same as for July. But food price rises are quite substantial, up +4.6% pa with pork prices up +15%, beef prices up +8% and lamb prices up almost +11%. Even larger price rises are recorded for fresh fruit which is up almost +20% year-on-year. These food prices will echo around the world (and may strain local consumer sentiment as well).

PRODUCER PRICES SINK
Chinese consumers might feel picked on. Producer prices are now falling. A year ago producer prices were rising much faster than consumer prices but this has turned around completely now. Both input and output prices are lower than this time last year.

NOT HAPPY
In Australia, ASIC is appealing the High Court judgment that it got its prosecution of Westpac under 'responsible lending' laws completely wrong. It still wants to make banks use actual borrower spending rather than the HEM.

SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates have turned back up strongly again today. The two year is up +4 bps, the five year is up +5 bps, and the ten year is up +7 bps. The 90-day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 1.15%. Australian swap rates are only up modestly in comparison with New Zealand. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +4 bps to 1.09%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 3.04%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is up +5 bps to 1.21%. The UST 10yr yield is at 1.65% and up +9 bps in a day.

NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is still firmer at 64.4 USc. Against the Aussie we now just on 93.9 AU cents. Against the euro we are holding at 58.3 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 firm at 69.7.

BITCOIN STABLE
Bitcoin is at US$10,352, little-changed from where we opened this morning. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

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29 Comments

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Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

Great recent interview with Robert Shiller on a range of issues including bubbles within the property context by the superb Jolly Swagman. Well worth your time.

http://josephnoelwalker.com/71-markets-and-the-madness-of-crowds-robert-...

"HARD WORKERS
More than 1 in 14 employed New Zealanders are working two or more jobs"

Not trying to knock people with multiple jobs but I don't see why having more than 1 job makes you a hard worker?

Nature of the modern workforce, particularly among younger people. Even among older people, participating in the gig economy is like working more than 1 job.

Sure but why does it make a person with more than 1 job, a harder worker that a person with 1 job? It doesn't necessarily mean you work more hours if you have more than 1 job

Semantics. A "hard worker" can describe someone who's prepared to give up their time to work outside their primary job.

Think you'll find people have to work two jobs now, because they dont earn enough in their primary job to pay the high costs of living imposed by cartel practises.

While unemployment is reported low, there is alot of people under employed. The unfortunate side effects mean the employer is in control of the wage rate, while the poor worker spends more time and cost in going to work.

is LAZY a more appropriate term?

You should give it a go - I know of people that start cleaing job at 5am - Checkout job at 9am - back to cleaning job till 10.30pm. Immigrants working there way up the ladder.

Sounds like self inflicted torture

Thats the problem the average kiwi does not wanto to do this work - only immigrants will take it on. Lazy as

If the average kiwi wanted an excessive workload, theyd move to Japan

You assume Japan would have them

touche lol

Should the average kiwi want to do this work though, is this race to the bottom what we've come to as a country? A nation of minimum wages and split shifts with a euphemistic title of 'gig economy'.

Something just feels so wrong about trying to explain it to my kids as 'progress'.

Yes and that displays a "hard work" attitude to me. Possibly even harder working than the council worker on a high salary clocking in at 9 and out at 6 while trotting off to lunchtime yoga to relieve the stresses (whatever they may be).

Not always the case. Local countdown used to employ local high schoolers. Now under an Indian manager, large majority of employees are Indian students - local high schoolers can't get a job there

so China is in much deeper problems than they make out to be...

Can see the US pulling strings in the trade war, now that they have china against the walls...

USA are a crumbling empire - so that wall you are talking about is pretty wobbly

no question about it... but my point is that china is in deeper trouble at the moment..

esp, with companies leaving China too..

??? If China starts to slip hard they collapse the dollar...... and take the States with them, then watch their gold go through the roof ^^^^ while every gun toting Americian marches on the White House.

I thought that wall was "Great" in China, also the USA's wall cannot crumble, for it doesn't exist

How long can people in China go without extra pork and 80% of fruit v those State side going without strawberries in winter.
China hasn't got a mountian of debt like the States.

China hasn't got a mountain of debt?

I assume you're referring to private debt.. you may want to double check your statement

Aprox 50% on the books and about the rest off the 'books'.
States 100% plus on the books and at least that off.

Debt to income.. US 72%, China 92%

All is well. No recession until 2020.

Meanwhile, Morrinsville Man updates his sign for Beijing Bridges following Simon's gushing over Xinping thought.

"While it seems unlikely that drove the better numbers in August, lower future mortgage payments may help keep retail spending up"...Yes well that remains to be seen..