Subscribe to our daily podcast here.
Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news China's factories are now experiencing sudden deflation and their housing developers are in a big chill.
American job openings fell for a second straight month in July amid decreases in wholesale trade and the federal government. Even though the change was small it is being seen as bolstering views that job growth has peaked. Q3 growth estimates are now down to +1.5% pa and that is almost its lowest since 2017. Small business optimism has now fallen to a five month low, not because current conditions are weak but because future ones are more uncertain.
And things are not great for American car makers. Moody's has cut Ford's credit rating to a junk Ba1 as doubts rise over their future.
Further, a second White House official is also warning American's to "be patient" over the US China trade talks. Reality is sinking in there that trade wars are not "easy to win".
To the north, things are a little brighter. Canada's housing starts rose more than expected as did their building permits, boosted by large apartment developments. Toronto's housing market is in the middle of a healthy turn up.
China has ditched its investment limit caps on foreign institutional investors. So long as they fund investors and are are in public markets, they can now buy as much as they wish.
But clamps on real estate developers are continuing to bite. The amount of funding raised by Chinese developers tumbled almost -60% in August after the authorities ramped up scrutiny on all financing channels for home builders in a move to keep home prices in check.
In China, they reported their August CPI rise as +2.8%, the same as for July. But food price rises are quite substantial, up +4.6% pa with pork prices up +15%, beef prices up +8% and lamb prices up almost +11%. Even larger price rises are recorded for fresh fruit which is up almost +20% year-on-year. These food prices will echo around the world (and may strain local consumer sentiment as well).
Producer prices are now falling in China. A year ago producer prices were rising much faster than consumer prices but this has turned around completely now. Both input and output prices are lower than this time last year as factory deflation takes hold.
In Australia, the widely-watched NAB business confidence survey took another dip lower in August. Both business confidence and conditions declined in the month, with both now at +1 index point and well below long-run averages. This suggests that momentum in the business sector continues to weaken in Australia, with both confidence and conditions now well below the levels seen in 2018.
The UST 10yr yield is up +8 bps and now at 1.70%. Their 2-10 curve marginally less positive, now, at +4 bps. Their negative 1-5 curve is narrower at -26 bps. Their 3m-10yr curve is sharply narrower at -35 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +5 bps at 1.13%. The China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 3.05%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is up +6 bps, now at 1.22%.
Gold is lower again, down -US$11 to US$1,492.
US oil prices are little-changed today and now just over US$57.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is also up at just on US$62.50.
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged at 64.2 USc. On the cross rates we are stable at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 58.2 euro cents. A weaker yen has put the TWI-5 down to 69.5.
Bitcoin is now at US$10,204 and also little-changed from this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».