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Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that China's trade surplus just keeps on growing.
In China, both September exports and imports fell, with exports declining -3.2% year-on-year and imports were down -8.5% on the same basis. Both of these were greater than analysts were expecting. Exports to the US fell -6% with trade elsewhere not much changed. Imports from the US fell -22%. Going the other way, Chinese exports to New Zealand rose +3.6% and imports from New Zealand rose +18%. The equivalent Australian data was even better for Australia, with Chinese exports to there up +6% and their imports from there up +21%.
Overall, China's trade surplus in September rose to +US$40 bln and the surplus with the US was little-changed at +US$26 bln.
In India, they reported inflation up to 4% in September and almost 5% in urban areas. Rising inflation, especially food inflation, will not help their Government.
In the US, the general trend of falling mortgage rates continues. Their 30yr Federally insured mortgage is at 3.57% plus 0.6 points. But it doesn't seem to be helping push back the view that current strong consumer sentiment and low interest rates will be irrelevant to the coming recession.
In Europe, although industrial production data came in with a small rise in August from July, the year-on-year data fell more than expected and reinforcing their economic funk.
Wall Street has opened flat after three straight sessions of gains as details of the bare-bones trade deal with China didn't help sentiment and triggered a -2% drop in oil prices. The third-quarter earnings reporting period is about to start and enthusiasm for that isn't high. Yesterday, the Shanghai exchange ended up +1.2% and Hong Kong was up +0.8%. Overnight, European markets fell about -0.2% but London fell even more.
The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 1.73%. Their 2-10 curve is positive at +14 bps. Their negative 1-5 curve is still at -10 bps. Their 3m-10yr curve has almost disappeared at -2 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -4 bps to 1.04%. The China Govt 10yr is up +2 bps at 3.19%. The NZ Govt 10 yr is now at 1.21%, up +3 bps since this time yesterday.
Gold is up +US$3 overnight to US$1,492/oz.
US oil prices have fallen back today by more than -US$1.50, now just under US$53.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is just on US$59. Oil prices are one thing, but tanker rates have surged to unprecedented levels, adding to the cost of crude.
The Kiwi dollar is a little softer today, now at 63 USc. On the cross rates we are at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are soft at 57.1 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at just on 68.4.
Bitcoin is lower at US$8,347 and down -1% overnight. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».