A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; ASB cuts, goMoney used by 1 mln, FMA warns, retirement home risks, marine risks, China's growth holds high, swaps up again, NZD rises, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; ASB cuts, goMoney used by 1 mln, FMA warns, retirement home risks, marine risks, China's growth holds high, swaps up again, NZD rises, & more
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Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB is the next bank to trim two key fixed mortgage rate offers. Update: TSB has also cut its 2 year rate.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank trimmed its 9 month rate.

ANZ APP REACHES 1M ACTIVE USERS
ANZ NZ says its goMoney mobile banking app, which launched in 2011, has reached one million active users. The app was used to make nearly 119 million individual transactions in the September year. There were nearly 45 million goMoney logins in August 2019 compared to just 10 million internet banking logins, ANZ says. The bank is now working to integrate its digital assistant, Jamie, into goMoney to help with simple customer queries. ANZ also says as open banking becomes established, customers will be able to see a more complete picture of their finances in goMoney, it will be easier to manage bill payments across vendors, and it’ll be easier to share banking data safely.

FMA ISSUES AML/CFT ACT WARNING
The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) has issued a formal warning to a non-licensed derivatives issuer and forex provider, Circle Markets Limited, under the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act. The FMA says the sole director and shareholder of the Warkworth-based company, Jeffrey Campbell McClean, has admitted he did not fully understand his AML/CFT obligations but is taking steps to do so having completed an AML/CFT training course earlier this year.

RETIREMENT HOME OFFERS A CCCFA ISSUE?
The Commission for Financial Capability is investigating retirement village operators that provide loans to village residents or people wishing to buy into their villages. The Commission says some village operators may offer financial assistance to prospective residents who don't have enough money to buy into a village, or to existing residents having trouble paying accrued weekly fees. The Commission said the issue was particularly relevant in the current environment of falling interest rates and potential pressure on retiree's incomes from savings. The areas to be investigated included the types of financial assistance offered, credit terms, interest rates and how the loans are charged and recouped.

TINY, BUT ACCUMULATING
I am an old guy (old white guy) so you are welcome to ignore me. I get the climate change risk. I get why insurers all see the risks. But I have struggled to understand the 'rising oceans' risk. I have always thought that ocean coastal erosion that varies more in some places than others are more affected by plate tectonic shifts like Kaikoura (and why some Pacific islands are more affected than others). Today, the Ministry of the Environment issued a report on "Our marine environment" and disclosed that our oceans are rising at the rate of 2.44 mm per year. That is certainly too small a change to notice. Over the report's fifty year 1966 to 2018 time frame that is a bit less than +50 mm (or two inches for certain folk) but daily tide changes average about +/-3000 mm. So that answers why I can return to fishing spots of my youth and not notice any sea level changes, and why the photo the Report uses to illustrate the point looks just like it did a century ago. There is change, just not enough yet to be noticeable but the real risk is that its accumulating. Coastal erosion happens, coastal building and subsidence continues ... until we reach a critical point which may not be for many generations. Time to act now though ... even if what we see around us doesn't look a lot like the extinction emergency taught in some schools. The risk is that over-egging generates cynicism and blindness to the real part of the risks. Listen to the insurers and the price signals they give. When you take on the real financial risks as they do, you study the real problem with intense perspective.

CHINA'S WEAKNESS NOT SEVERE
China's Q3 GDP growth
downshifted to +6.0%, and below the expected +6.1%, itself lower than the Q2 rate of +6.2%. In an economy the size of China's, a 0.1% miss is still a lot. But interestingly, the main depressor was in their factory sector. Retail sales rose pretty much on target at +8.2% and unchanged from Q2 (and better than analysts expected). They reported higher industrial production, but lower fixed asset formation.

THE WEEK IN EQUITIES
The NZX50 is heading for a +1.6% rise for the week with a small +0.4% gain today. That compares to the ASX200 with is heading for a weekly gain of only +0.7% after what is looking like a -0.5% slide today. The S&P500 has one session to go and so far is +1.0% ahead for the week. Shanghai needs a flourish to just finish even, currently down -0.3% for the week so far. But Tokyo is the Asia star, still trading but headed for a +4.0% weekly rise if it holds.

SWAP RATES RISING AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates continued their upward direction today, picking up the pace. The two year is up +3 bps, the five year is up +4 bps, and the ten year is up +4 bps. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.05%. Australian swap rates are up too, but only by +1 or +2 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +4 bps to 1.11%. The China Govt 10yr is down -1 bp at 3.18%. The NZ Govt 10 yr is also up +3 bps at 1.24%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 1.74%.

NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is up today and just on 63.7 USc which is more than a +¾c gain. Against the Aussie we are also firmer at 93.2 AU cents and a +½c gain. Against the euro we are up at 57.3 euro cents and also a +½c gain. That means the TWI-5 has risen to 68.8 and that is its highest in a month.

BITCOIN FIRM
Bitcoin is down today at US$8,097 and that is a +1.5% gain on the day. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

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We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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Good viewing. Agree with a lot of what Rob Spalding says about China. I have been going there since 2002 and noticed the same line trotted out, about China having too many people for democracy to work. Everyone spouts it, to the point where I think it must be taught/washed into them at school.
I have just returned and was very uncomfortable with the Orwellian surveillance that is everywhere. Fingerprints and face scan taken at airport on arrival. Cash is almost history (couldn't pay for my taxi as the driver didn't carry change), with everyone using Wechat pay and smile pay(face scanning payment). The govt has the ability to track anyone they want 24/7.

The most interesting point is whether the 5G network could give China control of financial flows. I suspect not as it is really only consumer spending, but still one to watch.

Retail sales rose pretty much on target at +8.2% and unchanged from Q2 (and better than analysts expected)

Even if those published figures were true (I have my doubts), one they come after a series of fiscal stimulus and tax cuts, making them no more sustainable than Trump's economic incentive plans.
Also, rampant food inflation in China due to swine flu and tariffs on American imports could be pushing the Chinese to hoard edible items before prices increase further.

The CCP has been hard at work to transform the Chinese economy from an export-driven to consumption-driven economy. This transformation could come at the cost of dampening the nation's competitiveness in low-cost manufacturing with rising wages and living standards.

Exactly right re the SLR hysteria, DC. Large swathes of our coastlines are either accreting (Pegasus Bay) or eroding (Granity) simply because of longshore currents and sediment transport which has existed for millennia. And from Oaro to Marfells Beach, there is between 1.5 and 6m of uplift thanks to Gaia and a series of fault movements in 2016. Parts of Christchurch rose 40cm (Heathcote valley and the seawards parts of Southshore) while others sank up to 1.2m, again because of undetected faults that had not moved for millennia but decided to do so between 2010 and 2013. None of any of these effects are remotely controllable, predictable or mitigateable by banning fossil fuels, but all can be adapted to. And humans are nothing if not Adaptable......

Global average sea level is currently rising at a rate of about 3mm per year.

This is primarily caused by ocean warming and the melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica. The melting of this land-based ice in particular is gathering pace.

As these vast, frozen lands melt and flow into the sea, certain parts of the world will face an increased risk of flooding.

But the science behind how they affect sea level is complex.

Sea level rise is counterintuitive
You might expect that sea levels would rise most where the ice melts. However, a range of complicated influences mean this isn’t the case.

A number of factors can bring about regional variations in sea level, such as changes in ocean circulation or changes in land water storage.
But the ice sheets are set to play an increasingly big role over the next 100 years and beyond. The way they interact with gravity, the Earth’s crust and its rotation mean they affect the oceans in a counterintuitive way.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2018/sep/12/green...

"Coastal erosion happens, coastal building and subsidence continues ..."; agreed.
A beach is extremely dynamic due to many factors including type of wave (constructive or destructive), prevailing wind, sediment size and characteristics, quantity of sediment supply and erosion, variations in longshore drift, tectonic (earthquake activity), and, yes, sea level. Many of these factors interact and the net effect of sea level is but one factor.
Yes, while there is going to be many beaches adversely affected and prone to erosion due to sea level change, this will not be necessarily so for all beaches.
As examples'
- the Manawatu coast has been growing in width at a metre a year due to considerable sediment supply and sea level was will significantly less here than other beaches and its rate of erosion is outweighed by the effects of the gryone built to protect Wanganui river entrance
- Marine Parade in Napier experienced over a metre uplift in 1931, so even 3mm a year provides a significant buffer to reach pre-earthquake levels, however the accelerated erosion in the Ruahines has added to significant increase in sediment supply and type (rocks as opposed to sand which is less prone to erosion in extreme events).
So yes there is going to be a change in dynamics due to sea level rise, but as the two examples above show, this may not have effect all.

Well said

David, a famous Americas Cup Yachtie told me about 2013 that Aucklands mean high tide had risen by 100mm in 30 years. The economic impact of this can be seen in the work done to raise the Northwestern Motorway, which was flooding.

You can coast along :-) thinking nothing is wrong for a long time, but the real damage is done with the infrequent weather extremes meet a high tide.

You are right also in specifying the rate of change is the risk to watch. Rates of change are what most can't understand. I actually believe climate change is a bit of a red herring, there are much worse environmental and resource catastrophes at risk of playing out. Take a read of this from a fried of mine, it might even take a couple of goes to fully get the detail. https://skepticalscience.com/Why-were-the-ancient-oceans-favorable-to-ma...

And can we ever really forget the worst environmental risk of all?
Especially as USA vs China tensions rise.

No matter what the media tells me, I will never apologize for being a white dude or what my opinions are!

Thats the point ..no one else cares...times are changing, get over it.

. . me too ... the extremist twats can glue themselves to buildings , buses or trains ... couldn't give a toss ... leave them out in the cold and rain ...

They can roll out some intellectually handicapped kid with Ass Burgers disease to shriek shame at me ... still gonna get on a plane anytime I want , to anywhere I choose . ...

NZD/USD up 1%
Net long speculators have been at about 78% for the last couple of days. Difficult to know why. I can only guess that speculator numbers now amount to such a critical mass that they can independently call the tune on currency cycles. I have seen local media quoting economists that are admitting this lately.
Could it also be that short sellers have just been panicked into unwinding their positions and buying up NZDs.

Who's causing the panic. Why Roger Kerr and 'glass-half-full' economists like BNZ's Jason Wong of course.