What happened Thursday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; Heartland's record low mortgage rates, used are imports shrink, local authority taxes up more than 3 times inflation, swaps yo-yo up, NZD stable, & more

5th Mar 20, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank's parent is back offering mortgages and with very competitive interest rates, including for floating rate home loans.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Bank of Baroda lower a number of TD rates today.

GOING SOFT
10,747 used car imports were first registered in February which is -3.4% fewer than for the same month in 2019. The three prior months posted an increase year-on-year. And that fall is almost the same as for new car (SUV?) registrations.

FAST RISES BUT NOT AS FAST
Local authority revenues from rates and other regulatory income (the power to tax) were up +6.1% in the year to December. At least that is lower than the average +7%pa rise over the prior two years.

VERY LOW LINKER YIELDS RETURN
Today was the 29th time the September 2040 inflation-indexed bond tender was held and the $50 mln on offer attracted bids of only $82 mln. But those bidders bid low, at least 19 of the 25 bidders did. In fact one even bid a yield of 0.49% (plus CPI). In the end the average successful bid was 0.593% (plus CPI) and well below the prior tender that achieved a yield of 0.741% (plus CPI). The lowest this bond has ever achieved was 0.49% in September 2019 and the highest was 2.36% in August 2016.

BETTER THAT WINE
Export sales of software and software services reached $2.1 bln in 2019, up almost +50% in two years. Despite flying under the radar, these software exports are now larger than the more celebrated Kiwi exports such as wine, which is one of our top 10 goods sold overseas.

IMPRESSIVE SURPLUS
The January trade surplus in Australia came in much better than expected at +AU$5.2 bln (when +AU$4.8 bln was the expected level). But this was not as good as the record AU$8.1 bln in June 2019. In the year to January, the Aussie trade surplus was AU$68.4 bln (and a hugely impressive +4.6% of GDP) and far above the +1.9% of GDP in the year to January 2019.

EQUITIES YO-YO UP
Wall Street turned up sharply today on stimulus hopes and news that Biden is likely to be the candidate contesting the next US Presidential election. The S&P500 end the session up +4.2%. That means the net drop since February 19, is down to -8.4% after being well over -12% on Friday. Today, the NZX50 Capital Index is up +2.0%. The ASX200 is up +1.2% and rising. Shanghai is up 0.6% at the open, Hong Kong is up +0.7%, Tokyo is up +0.9%.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. There are now 14,857 cases outside China, a rise of +2001 in one day as the numbers keep on jumping in South Korea, Italy and Iran. 11632 are in those three countries (80%). A week ago that outside-China number was 3337 so it is still quadrupling in a week. Inside China, the growth of reported cases has stopped. But deaths are now up to 3285 and 3014 are in China (92%).

LOCAL SWAP RATES YO-YO UP
Wholesale swap rates have yo-yo'd back up again today. At present, the two year is up +7 bps to just 0.71%. The five year rate is up +8 bps to 0.82%, and the ten year is also up +10 bps to 1.13%. The 90-day bank bill rate is up +5 bps to 0.82% as markets wonder whether the RBNZ will join the rate-cutting party. In Australia, their swap rates up less, about +2 to +4 bps across their curve after the RBA rate cut. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +7 bps at 0.71%. The China Govt 10yr is also lower, down -3 bps to 2.75%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is back up, up +5 bps at 1.08%. And the UST 10yr yield is has bounced back up today to 1.03%, an +8 bps rise after yesterday's -20 bps crash below 1%.

NZ DOLLAR LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed this time yesterday, still at 62.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 95.1 AUc. Against the euro we have stayed similar at 56.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still little-changed but low at 68.1.

BITCOIN BECALMED
Bitcoin is also little-changed today at US$8,857, a less than $20 difference. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

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56 Comments

by Wrong John | 5th Mar 20, 4:06pm 1583377590

The more I see & read about what's going on, the more I think the CCP has deliberately changed the game. Remember, the CCP don't give a damn about their people, they just want to run the planet their way on their terms. I know that might sound tough, but that's exactly what they are.

by NZChinese | 5th Mar 20, 4:29pm 1583378966

The rest of the world was not really in the game a few weeks ago. This bug will either make or break Labour.

by sharetrader | 5th Mar 20, 5:04pm 1583381044

especially if they don't get on top of it early enough and let it get away.
this running around to find all the people once someone affected arrives and wanders around the place is not a good plan.
they need more enforcement and tracking of people at the airport when they arrive, maybe they need to go all big brother on people coming in

by Glitzy | 5th Mar 20, 5:06pm 1583381199

So here's choice for the CCP. a) Report cases accurately, see more factories close up and have social unrest and the asset bubble burst or b) lie and say it's getting better and try and cover up the infections and deaths.

My money is on b.

by Mrs The Point | 5th Mar 20, 5:26pm 1583382363

I'll put a Yuan on horse b) please.

by Fritz | 5th Mar 20, 5:35pm 1583382909

Yep, b is already occurring

by workingman | 5th Mar 20, 4:08pm 1583377727

Coronavirus in NZ. Two questions. Who’s in charge? Is anyone in charge? We hear from the DG of Health, from Robertson, the PM, DoH officials, almost anybody passing a microphone. This isn’t credible, responsible leadership. It’s a merry-go-round of partial reactions to events.

Coronavirus is going to be a comprehensive national crisis, no question. Containing it, ameliorating it, getting through, requires dedicated, proactive, single-point management, backed up by a coherent, highly-resourced team - a war-room - able to direct and co-ordinate relevant ministries, LG, DHBs, and other agencies. Focused leadership, practical capability.

It’s time for the New Zealand government to show it deserves the name. Either they rise to it, or they’re gone for a decade, and the CCP rules via its client party, National.

by blowjoy | 5th Mar 20, 4:24pm 1583378676

The last burn to CCP is uncalled for as much as I agree with you on that as a separate issue.

by workingman | 5th Mar 20, 6:10pm 1583385017

I am convinced, blowjoy, that the health of our population and the health of our democracy (and thus the health of our nation and society) are now inextricably linked. The CCP / United Front are not backing National for amusement.

by blowjoy | 6th Mar 20, 9:22am 1583439768

In that case, North Korea might have the healthiest democracy by shutting its boarders.

by Kezza R | 5th Mar 20, 4:27pm 1583378842

DoH have stated that people who are not showing signs of the virus, can not transmit to others.
It is well documented that it is transferable from people not showing signs.
We are being feď information that is not correct and uterly misleading.

by Becnz | 5th Mar 20, 4:38pm 1583379493

Crazy they keep saying that statement. This why it has spread so well to start with. I have little faith they can stop it.
Now is time to get supplies ready.
By June we and other southern hemisphere countries will be blocked from visiting other countries due to it peaking at that start of our winter.

by tim52 | 5th Mar 20, 4:50pm 1583380252

Ashley Bloomfield comes across as a bureaucrat without a clue what to do but seems to be in charge of everything.
He seems to believe the WHO propaganda and certainly has no concern that he is responsible for keeping NZ from from turning into the new South Korea or Wuhan. He's implied that children are immune and can't carry the virus despite all the school lock-downs.
It really does scare me that he is in charge.

by Kezza R | 5th Mar 20, 5:08pm 1583381333

A few things he has said is blatant lies and it has a massive effect on infection rates.
Lets see what Jacinda say this evening, she is all upbeat infront of the camera but the wheels are falling off. She stated that the NZ health system was able to deal with this. Out today in the Otago Daily Times, Local health will not dlbe able to deal with the Wu Flu influx.

by tim52 | 5th Mar 20, 7:08pm 1583388518

How would Jacinda know anything? She's going to ask our Director-General of Health as her first and definitive source of information I would expect.

I'm pretty sure government would talk to the Office of the Director-General exclusively for global health crises.
https://www.health.govt.nz/about-ministry/ministry-directorates#odg
It's all on Dr Ashley Bloomfield to keep us safe and he's just covering his arse.

by Houseworks | 5th Mar 20, 8:04pm 1583391897

Replace jacinda with a parrot please lets save the moolah

by Becnz | 5th Mar 20, 9:59pm 1583398767

Food for thought
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11481595

by Fritz | 5th Mar 20, 5:43pm 1583383435

One of 2 new cases in South Australia is a baby

by kiwichas | 5th Mar 20, 10:59pm 1583402374

Bloomfield is pig-headed in his refusal to allow any testing whatsoever on people with no history of contact or travel. The Aussies have far looser rules and have already picked up 2 Doctors with no history!!! Aged care worker infecting residents: no history!
Stupid in not restricting flights from Iran or Korea or Italy and not identifying and isolating those arrivals.
The Govt is blindly following his advice,being spineless, as is the Healthline.
No community specialist centres set up yet,despite all the warnings, learning little from overseas experience. GPs, EDs and A+Es will never cope when the storm breaks.
Need to keep the bug out for as long as possible, and aggressively test and isolate.
Note to Bloomfield, WHO firming on around 3% mortality=150000 dead NZrs in time; we have a large older demographic.
I wonder if he would like to live with "asymptomatic" carriers if they are that harmless(never know quite when the symptom will come, damn!)?

by NZChinese | 5th Mar 20, 4:27pm 1583378833

It looks like the PM may not be able to talk her way out this time

by Kezza R | 5th Mar 20, 4:29pm 1583378971

Wait for the big smile and claiming that people not showing symptoms can not transmit... No danger what so ever...
Time to worry if she continues with the lies!

by NZChinese | 5th Mar 20, 4:31pm 1583379091

People will see through the lies easily this time, as the virus is absolutely objective and cannot be bulled.

by Kezza R | 5th Mar 20, 4:55pm 1583380506

As you said in another comment it's make or break time for Labour, it hasbt really started yet and it's looking like they are already broken.
If she continues with the current lies she needs to be removed asap!

by CJ099 | 5th Mar 20, 4:58pm 1583380728

Can't be any worse than Trumps blundering. He has already caused a lot of damage, California has just declared a state of emergency after announcing its first coronavirus death, bringing the US death toll from the disease to 11. With Trumps dismantling of their affordable healthcare, it's now costing uninsured Americans upwards of $1,000 for a virus test. BBC article: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51740706

by Kezza R | 5th Mar 20, 5:12pm 1583381552

The other choice was Hillary Clinton. Despite of the female vote she still didn't get in. Her friends have a nasty habit of dieing in strange ways...

by CJ099 | 5th Mar 20, 5:56pm 1583384187

Bit of an extreme flip change of subject there are you trying to cover up Trumps blunders? Also you seem to have a problem with women Kezza, would it be fair to describe you as a misogynist.

by Nzdan | 5th Mar 20, 7:30pm 1583389808

A girl called him a poopy pants at primary school and he's never gotten over it.

by Masher | 5th Mar 20, 7:52pm 1583391159

Bit of an extreme flip change of subject there are you trying to cover up Jacindas blunders?

Pot. Kettle. Black.

by Kezza R | 5th Mar 20, 7:58pm 1583391520

It has even really started and she is screwing it up badly.

by Kezza R | 5th Mar 20, 9:58pm 1583398702

So if I say someone got the female vote that is sexest? If so I don't like your PC BS world.
My wife and three daughters don't think I'm a misogynist, FYI they are females... Said it again female.

by linklater01 | 6th Mar 20, 8:44am 1583437495

Kezza R,

"despite of the female vote she still didn't get in". That is poor English, the 'of' should not be there and then there is 'dieing', which is spelled dying.
Are you implying that someone is killing her friends? If so, who?

by bw | 5th Mar 20, 4:31pm 1583379105

Ah, local Councils! Don't you just love them!
Tauranga City Council proposes 12.6% rise
Coming to a rates bill near...well...all of us!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12313803

by Fritz | 5th Mar 20, 5:38pm 1583383128

Blame central govt instead. High immigration and lack of action on housing.

by mills | 5th Mar 20, 6:16pm 1583385381

With local government rates and fees escalating at rates well above inflation for many years now, I would have expected much more angst from ordinary ratepayers.
Undoubtedly excessive immigration has been one cause. (Although how many councils have been beating on Parliament's doors in protest?)
Judging from Auckland Council, surely one of the most inept, the reasons for massive increases in rates & fees, the reasons are more complex.
The amalgamation was a botched opportunity to achieve economies of scale. Instead our elected representatives wet their pants in their excitement at becoming a "world class city" with enthusiastic spending sprees.
Secondly their CCO's became little empires virtually 'out' of control.
Thirdly the departmental 'barons' were allowed far too much decision making authority with little apparent accountability...each departmemt more concerned with boosting its own fortunes than serving its citizens.
Lastly, as anyone using Council "services" will surely attest, is the huge, creaking bureaucracy's complete inability to complete even simple tasks with even a basic level of competence.
Where have our various Ministers of Local Government been hiding?
The situation is a disgrace, and a major reason for NZ's dismal progress on productivity.

by JimboJones | 5th Mar 20, 6:46pm 1583387208

Auckland council has been keeping rates rises fairly low compared to the others (about 3% compared to 6% elsewhere). Wouldn’t that imply it has been a success? I think comparing rates increases with the cost of imported TVs (which is basically the CPI) is almost meaningless.

by Uninterested | 5th Mar 20, 7:54pm 1583391249

Ak council rates increases for me has been way way more than 3%. Granny flats did not used to have to pay second uniform annual rates if a family member lived there. Of course, they do now. They changed the uniform annual general component to be as low as possible so that the variable one hammered the ratepayers of districts like the North Shore. They have increased the the sewerage component of the water rates above the published promised figures, rubbish tag costs have gone up compared to the old bags (unless you do extreme compaction on the mucky fly blown mess in the big bins). The development contributions have gone up by a huge amount for Devonport to fund Northcote which is pure unadulterated cross subsidization. The new Phil Goff petrol tax has come in. The cost for a new water connection would pay for a quite nice car. etc etc.

by printer8 | 5th Mar 20, 5:23pm 1583382214

Workingman
In answer to your question as to who has responsibility; there is a group/committee consisting of Ardern, Robertson, Ministry of Health and specialists, RBNZ (Orr), plus others who meet on a regular basis (every couple of days).
I can’t recall it’s working title but it represents a wide range of perspectives and power; it is quite appropriate that those with specific responsibilities and knowledge comment.
Hence Bloomfield is commenting on specifics of virus and testing, Clark on wider health issues from the Ministry’s perspective, Ardern on Government actions etc. so each responds with authority and credibility in their area of expertise and responsibility. It is not about aimlessly passing the microphone but rather co-ordinated responsibilities.
Think the Mosque shootings or White Island. While Ardern made comments on wider issues, it was entirely appropriate that the police made comment on operational matters.
Bottom line is that the threat is being handled appropriately and extremely well.

by workingman | 5th Mar 20, 6:15pm 1583385347

I appreciate your reply, printer8. I hope it does, but I feel that your last line may not necessarily follow those before.

by printer8 | 5th Mar 20, 8:39pm 1583393956

Hi workingman
Personally I feel that in our inter-connected world and communities, the nature of the virus, and the onset of our winter and “flu/cold” season, that this is going to get far, far more widespread in NZ. I think rather than containment, the best we can hope for is minimisation. So far the actions seem to be based on good and realistic decision/making given the reality and constraints of the situation.

by Henry_Tull | 5th Mar 20, 7:10pm 1583388648

Printer8, thanks for the background.

Regarding the quality of handling, what is your frame of reference?

Compared to Singapore, South Korea, and Australia, NZ is poorer than all.
Dive into the comms part.
NZ comes 4th.
See today Dr B said he had to rely on Air NZ call centre operatives to chase up contact passengers.
Dr B also saying for folk to minimise use of health line, as it's for all health questions.
There is confusion over asymptomatic carriers and infectors.
Messaging has clearly not got to people, about calling ahead before going to medical centres or attending work when unwell.

From a science perspective, why not test the suspected infector of case no.3. The scientific data would be gold.

Is there anyway to get the minutes of the TAG you know of?

by Kezza R | 5th Mar 20, 9:59pm 1583398773

"Bottom line is that the threat is being handled appropriately and extremely well."
Telling everyone that the virus can not be passed on when we all have know that ot can from the very start is a lie to calm the masses.
Only contacting people sitting on flights 2m from the infected (non systom showing) infected pasanger is also a bad plan.
Handled very well, no Jacinda is not running ot very well at all. She calls for people to chill and not buy up large, result no body belives her and continues. That is a direct show of how much people think that she has this in control.

by the Joneses | 6th Mar 20, 7:02am 1583431323

A National MP was on the radio telling people they should panic buy items, and you are complaining about Labours communication?

by profile | 5th Mar 20, 4:30pm 1583379025

Strange that a few lazy roubles and 'bots can swing a presidential election (hat tip CNN) but $500 million Bloomberg bucks get you squat.

by David Chaston | 5th Mar 20, 6:13pm 1583385238

I think the targets need to be gullible in the first place, open to conspiracy theories. A significant enough cohort in Red States fit the profile (as was clearly shown in 2016), enough to tip the scales. But when it is done openly and debated (a la Bloomberg looking like he is buying an election) it backfires. The key is, do it in the shadows, and the gullible will fall for it.

by profile | 5th Mar 20, 9:26pm 1583396799

That is a long bow David. The Trump-Russia conspiracy theory came up zilch after two years of Mueller/CNN. Stick to Occam's Razor. Michael Moore best predicted why Trump would win 2016 - see "The Biggest F*** You In Human History" video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLfvXjKMwtI
https://www.americanbar.org/news/abanews/aba-news-archives/2019/03/muel…

by Kezza R | 6th Mar 20, 7:00am 1583431244

Cheers, that was great.
Trump is certinally not the best, he has faults BUT the other choice was Hillary Clinton.
It's looking like Joe Biden this time arround which is outstand as he is in film admitting that he personally gloating that he did what Trump was put to impeachment for. This election will be the biggest joke that the anyone has ever seen.

Remember when Obama was elected, he was touted as the big changer, elected for the people by the people. What a non event he was from start to finsh.

by Shamino | 5th Mar 20, 4:35pm 1583379328

"Inside China, the growth of reported cases has stopped."
Does anyone believe this?

by Andrewj | 5th Mar 20, 5:07pm 1583381252

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3065091/coronavirus-rec…

by Glitzy | 5th Mar 20, 5:10pm 1583381428

It would be more accurate to say the reporting on cases was inaccurate but now numbers are simply utter b*llocks.

by NZChinese | 5th Mar 20, 10:25pm 1583400355

Of course, you should always trust the Party, tho they cancelled several domestic flights due to a "public safety" reason this afternoon. Lol

by Glitzy | 5th Mar 20, 5:03pm 1583381008

Anyone seen stats on new car sales for Feb or tourist arrivals for Jan ? Been on MIA and stats NZ but can't see numbers :/

by David Chaston | 5th Mar 20, 6:19pm 1583385593

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/industry/new-vehicles-sold

We reported them here earlier this week.

Tourist arrival data for January is not due out till March 16. Auckland Aorp[ort passenger data for January will probably be relased abot March 20 or so.

by Glitzy | 6th Mar 20, 12:02am 1583406137

Thanks David.

by Henry_Tull | 5th Mar 20, 6:14pm 1583385283

This Q&A with Dr Norman Swan.
Good value ABC Australia.
It starts at approx minute 3

https://youtu.be/Mvm_SUjQorw

by custard | 5th Mar 20, 9:38pm 1583397489

Informative/thought provoking comments tonight - interest.co.nz - thank you!

by Henry_Tull | 5th Mar 20, 10:20pm 1583400021

Question for the class.
Does anyone know the cleaning and disinfecting / deep sanitization protocol of areas where virus carriers have been.

Does air nz have something special for the planes.

In case you wondered if this was a thing.
https://mobile.twitter.com/matt_barrie/status/1235460770520956928