What happened Wednesday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; more retail rate changes, export slippage, Fonterra improves, forecasting nightmare, explosive virus jumps, swaps up, NZD down, & more

18th Mar 20, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
WBS cut its floating rate by only -51 bps to 4.99%, and the trimmed their one year fixed rate by -6 bps to 3.99%. Bank of China NZ cut its 5.75% floating rate by the full -75% to 5.00% even. HSBC also cut its floating rate by the full -75 bps to 4.49%. That means most banks have now cut their floating rates and two banks are on equal lowest at 4.40% - Kiwibank and the Cooperative Bank.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
WBS raised its $5000 tier level to $10,000 and cut most of its term deposit rates. It also added a two year term which is new for them.

GOOD COMES BEFORE BAD
Our December quarter current account deficit narrowed to -NZ$1.9 bln taking the annual deficit to -NZ$9.2 bln or -3.0% of GDP and that is its lowest since March 2018. We have a lower deficit-to-GDP in the period March 2015 to early 2018 and it then swelled to -3.8% before shrinking to the current level. Since then of course there have been restrictions placed on Chinese travel and students which have been an important part of keeping our current account deficit low. Without visitors and students from China, New Zealand’s services surplus for the December 2019 year would have fallen from +$4.2 bln to +$1.2 bln and as a result, the annual current account deficit for the year ended December 2019 would have widened from -$9.2 bln to -$12.3 bln and raising the deficit to -4.0% of GDP. At that level it would have been the worst since June 2009. This is an indication of what might happen when the Q1-2020 result.

ANALYSTS VS MACHINE AI
Tomorrow, the Q3-2019 GDP will be released and analysts are expecting an annual +1.7% growth rate. Q3-2019 was +2.3% pa. Massey's GDP Live suggests it will be better than this at +2.25%. After than, GDP Live suggests it is down from there.

TRACKING THE EXPORT SLIPPAGE TO CHINA
The latest update of our export trade to China shows it falling away slightly from the levels we enjoyed in 2019, but still ahead of 2018. The cumulative total value of exports to China alone from 1 February to 10 March 2020 was about $1.4 bln. In February 2020, exports were about -$144 mln less than for the same period in 2019. For the first 10 days in March 2020, exports to China have fallen in behind 2019 by another -$200 mln, to be -$345 mln lower for the whole period.

A BIG IMPROVEMENT
Fonterra has reported a big revenue and profit recovery in the half year to January 2020, but it has left its milk payout forecast unchanged and it won't pay an interim dividend. Details here. Revenues were up +7% to $10.4 bln.

HOLDING ON, JUST
The overnight dairy auction brought another overall drop in prices (the fourth in a row), led by milk powders. But the Kiwi dollar also fell and that meant that in NZD, average prices actually rose slightly.

HOW GRIM WILL IT GET?
None of this is impressing economists, (here and here) with more of them expecting a recession and our unemployment rate to rise at least 5.4% in mid 2021. And these forecasts assume the current fiscal package works as advertised. (In Australia, Westpac sees unemployment topping 7% later this year. New Zealand will do well to be hit less hard than them.) But as one said today, "let’s be honest, any forecast, in this environment, is hardly worth the paper it is written on".

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EXPLOSIVE RISES
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 197,100 of officially confirmed cases, up +66% in a week. There are now 116,000 cases outside China. Four European countries account for more than half that; Italy (31,100), Spain (11,748), Germany (9257) and France (7695). Also rising very fast is the USA (6362) exploding +36% IN ONE DAY! (and up from 4,661 this time yesterday.) It looks like the Americans have the worst control measures in place of anywhere. The global official death toll now is almost 8000. When we report tomorrow morning, the infection today will almost certainly exceed 200,000. New Zealand has eight new cases of Covid-19, all overseas travel related. There are four new cases in Auckland, one in Christchurch, two in Waikato and one in Invercargill. This brings our total to 20 confirmed cases in NZ and all directly overseas travel related.

MORE YO-YO
Earlier today, Wall Street closed higher in its now-regular yo-yo pattern, this time boosted by White House promises of helicopter money. The S&P500 closed +6% higher, recovering just half of yesterday's -12% loss. On the ASX, their main index is currently down -4% ignoring the US vibes and responding to tougher local rules. The NZX50 is however heading for a +2.2% rise boosted by F&P Healthcare (a Covid-19 winner) and the better Fonterra results. Tokyo is also positive, up +1.1% so far, but it is pretty lackluster in Hong Kong (-0.8%) and up +1.0% in Shanghai in early trade today.

LOCAL SWAP RATES RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates have risen and steepened again today. The two year is up another +3 bps on the day, the five year is up another +6 bps and the ten year is up another +10 bps from this time yesterday. The 90-day bank bill rate is also up further, another +2 bps to 0.68%. The markets 'buy' the RBNZ commitment to hold the OCR at its new rate for a year. In Australia, their swap curve is flat and little-changed. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +19 bps to 1.00%. The China Govt 10yr is up +2 bps at 2.74%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is up +20 bps to 1.23%. The UST 10yr has also risen during today's trading to now at 0.80%

NZ DOLLAR SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar has stayed at the lower level it started the day at, now at 59.6 USc and -1c lower than this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are still flirting with parity at 99.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged 54.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is lower at 66.3.

BITCOIN FIRMER
Bitcoin is now at US$5,403 and up 3.5% from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below, and today it is worth taking a look.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart (including bitcoin) is here.

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Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

102 Comments

by Yvil | 18th Mar 20, 4:03pm 1584500627

Covid 19 deaths have now jumped to 0.00001% (7'940/8 billion) of the population, terrifying NOT. Yes it will increase but there will still be infinitely fewer deaths than deaths from smoking or cancer or road accidents or tuberculosis.
0.00001% of the world population !!!

by avatar99 | 18th Mar 20, 4:11pm 1584501068

Good grief. The only reason deaths are "low" so far is because China and other places shut everything down. If we don't do anything then we can expect 60%-80% of everyone to get it and 1%-4% of those infected to die. Those are very big numbers. Perhaps study up on exponential curves.

by NZChinese | 18th Mar 20, 4:41pm 1584502889

Unless there's a vaccine, everyone will get it in this controlled manner...

by Plutocracy | 18th Mar 20, 4:50pm 1584503442

I think Yvil may be providing a real world example of the Dunning–Kruger effect on this topic.

by Snow | 18th Mar 20, 5:18pm 1584505133

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4

This may be appropriate for some people here. A little course language for those easily offended.

by Mrs The Point | 18th Mar 20, 4:14pm 1584501256

Any idea what will happen when this washes through sub Saharan Africa, where 20% of the population (around 30 million people) has HIV?

by Foyle | 18th Mar 20, 4:43pm 1584502989

Apparently at least one HIV antiviral is looking very good for treating Wuflu, and median age in Africans is under 20 vs 35-46 in OECD - so maybe not too bad?

by Mrs The Point | 18th Mar 20, 4:45pm 1584503147

I hope you are right, with a compromised immune system and then this Corona Virus, they will surely need some good luck.

by Advisor | 18th Mar 20, 4:23pm 1584501782

Road accidents, smoking or TB victims don't all show up to hospitals in a matter of few weeks unlike those hit with Covid-19, straining a country's medical infrastructure.

The death toll numbers out of China and Iran need to be taken with a grain of salt because overwhelmed medical facilities have been turning away thousands of patients each day without testing them, leaving them unattended to die. These deaths continue to be left out of official figures.

Also the vested interest in keeping it hush-hush for the fear of economic repercussions is high.

by frazz | 18th Mar 20, 5:40pm 1584506436

Don't bother I would class Yvill as a troll now (been over this before)

by Plutocracy | 18th Mar 20, 4:46pm 1584503194

Give it a rest. You've had it explained to you numerous times why virus this is a huge deal.

by Yvil | 18th Mar 20, 4:57pm 1584503827

Give it a rest? Why because you don't agree with my viewpoint? What about all other commenters championing Coronavirus daily like drug addicts?

0.00001% of the world population !!!

by mfd | 18th Mar 20, 5:13pm 1584504813

You're saying that as if it's a positive - the fact that it's had such a dramatic impact even though it's barely got started should be terrifying. Are you seeing any signs of the spread slowing yet?

by Yvil | 18th Mar 20, 7:42pm 1584513768

The dramatic part is not because of the virus, it's because of the governments relations to the virus (shutting borders, cancelling events etc...

by mfd | 18th Mar 20, 8:16pm 1584515800

In case you haven't heard it yet, this is the situation in parts of Italy:

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."

"All operations have been cancelled, GP surgeries closed so the that the GPs can come in and be ward doctors.

"The number of ICU beds has been tripled. There was even pressure to take over our Cardiac ICU."

"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die."

This is a catastrophe unfolding in a modern country with good healthcare. If we don't take steps to stop the spread, this gets worse (again, only 0.05% of Italy's population has been diagnosed so far). If other countries do not act they go the same way, and far worse for countries without decent healthcare systems. The deaths from the virus itself will be accompanied by large numbers of other deaths and other suffering as the rest of the healthcare system shuts down in support.

The Government reaction is for good reason, and we should all do our part.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-…

by ham n eggs | 18th Mar 20, 9:55pm 1584521752

I actually Agree
The economic shutdown will ultimately cause a greater number of fatalities
Give it a couple of months and people will be screaming for jobs and food and will be happy to take their chances

by RickStrauss | 18th Mar 20, 5:15pm 1584504937

Maybe you're right. Might help reduce the housing crisis a little too if we just open the borders.

by Yvil | 18th Mar 20, 7:40pm 1584513640

and also ease the burden on the working class paying for super for the boomers

by Foyle | 18th Mar 20, 5:38pm 1584506283

If you jump off of a skyscraper you are only doing 10km/hr after falling the first 0.5m, so that is fine and nothing to be worried about, right?
Wuflu is showing 10x growth every two weeks, that is 1% of world population in 2.5months unless you shut everything down - which is what is happening in the world right now.

by Plutocracy | 18th Mar 20, 5:43pm 1584506636

It's because virtually everybody who has any credibility on this matter disagrees with your opinion and are trying to convey the seriousness of this situation.

That's usually a bit of a red flag.

by gingerninja | 18th Mar 20, 6:48pm 1584510514

I don't think Yvil is a troll. But as one of the first alarms ringing loudly within these comments about the risks of SARS-CoV-2 and therefore, demonstrably under no illusions as to the potential devastation of this pandemic, I would also like to remind everyone of the neurological and psychological differences between all of our abilities to process risk, shock and fear.

Can we please bear in mind that (as is well demonstrated in these comments over the last month) we all have different levels of capacity to adapt to this psychologically and emotionally. We will all have different processes, cognitive dissonances, denials and experiences. Different stresses and worries.

None of that matters. All that matters is that we are kind, patient and caring about each other. Whatever our political or economic differences of opinion, now is the time to put those aside and brace for impact, to focus on community and collaboration.

This will probably only ever happen once in our life times. We won't get another shot to be our better selves. Whatever money you lose now in the markets, in your career, we will all lose. We will all be in the same boat. We all have the same risks (more or less). What is important, is that we choose to be decent and kind to each other now. Because we will need that in a way that we have never needed it before.

The economy will recover again. It will be rough but we can come through it. Now is not the time for greed and competition. We can get back to that as soon as this is over. Feel free. Now we come together.

As we approach Anzac day, it's timely to remember what our grandparents and great grandparents sacrificed so that we could live in the privilege and affluence we do now. The least we can do, is socially distance, accept some economic losses and pull together.

#teamNZ

by Yvil | 18th Mar 20, 7:46pm 1584513973

You're a lovely person Ginga and you have a very good heart. Seriously, honestly, I don't think Covid is a huge deal (I know you disagree), I think governments are ruining people's lves with their reaction to Covid

by gingerninja | 18th Mar 20, 8:29pm 1584516586

Yvil, I have never in my life, wanted so badly to be wrong.

by Yvil | 18th Mar 20, 7:52pm 1584514323

Credibility? what credibility, nobody knows how bad or not the virus is, get real. The masses live a life of fear and the masses will swallow any BS if they think it will save them from harm.

by Plutocracy | 18th Mar 20, 8:17pm 1584515845

You know, the people with advanced qualifications and specialist knowledge in areas such as Infectious diseases, Public Health and Epidemiology.

by Fritz | 18th Mar 20, 8:36pm 1584517003

But they are coming at this from one angle, the medical one.

by Nzdan | 18th Mar 20, 8:39pm 1584517163

They're just part of some big conspiracy to destroy the world's productive economies. Yvil is the true voice of reason, sitting behind a keyboard in the lobby of a deserted 2 star motel. Had to apply to the bank for a loan the other day for renovations, I think the temptation of taking on emergency housing "clients" got the better of him and now some of the rooms need to be rebuilt. I don't know why he flew to Auckland to apply for a loan though? Usually that stuff can be handled on a branch level....

by Yvil | 19th Mar 20, 2:04pm 1584579886

I live in Auckland

by mfd | 18th Mar 20, 4:47pm 1584503259

Italy's Covid deaths will soon match their annual death toll, all coming within about a month (currently reporting 2,500 vs road toll of ~3,300). This is with 0.05% of the population diagnosed (although I'm sure we can both imagine many more than this have actually been infected).

Imagine how high the numbers get if you let this spread unchecked. Read some of the reports from Italian medical staff, they are already swamped just dealing with these patients - other routine or emergency health issues are simply not being treated in Hospitals that have been overwhelmed.

by Shamino | 18th Mar 20, 4:59pm 1584503975

Currently data of recovered patients showed EIGHT percent death rate, not the three percent we were originally looking at. Perhaps because the Chinese data was fudged right from the start.

by Foyle | 18th Mar 20, 5:34pm 1584506094

I little misleading as will be huge number of undiagnosed. Most experts seem to be converging on about 1% death rate with good hospital treatment and 5% (ish) without. We have to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed.

by gingerninja | 18th Mar 20, 7:16pm 1584512206

During the SARS crisis, the WHO and all other experts also massively underestimated the fatality rate, within 12 months they had revised it upwards by more than double.

As this is a new virus strain, they can easily suggest an underestimation because that is less likely to provoke strong psychological reactions and believe me, population control is every bit as important to this fight, as respirators. If people resort to civil disobedience we are in a much worse position. The experts cannot possibly know the fatality rate at this stage. They don't even have full testing capacity yet.

Everyone just needs to focus on doing what they can to be a decent human being in this crisis.

by rastus1 | 18th Mar 20, 5:08pm 1584504503

Contrast the hysteria over the virus compared to the science on climate change and inability to act.

The conspirator in me says this virus release is a step by man that was necessary for the environmental (and financial) reset to get underway.

by profile | 18th Mar 20, 5:52pm 1584507177

You've jumped the shark rastus. Nobody has died of climate change. This isn't exactly unprecedented. 1-2 million incl. 100k US citizens died of the Asian Flu in 1957, Spanish flu etc. Pandemic predictions are falsifiable - unlike climate change models.

From 2007 - HT Matt Ridley. "The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2176051/

by profile | 18th Mar 20, 5:48pm 1584506931

Good interview from the guy who wrote the 2007 bat paper: "Sixty-three year old microbiologist Yuen Kwok-yung, a giant among Hong Kong's infectious disease experts, accompanied high-profile Sars researcher Zhong Nanshan and China Centres for Disease Control head George Gao on an exploratory mission to Wuhan on Jan 17 on behalf of the National Health Commission (NHC).

It was this "third expert group" that would sensationally confirm the new coronavirus was spreading between people.

Upon returning from Wuhan, the group recommended to the NHC that the city of 11 million be placed under lockdown.

...He believes Hong Kong's health authorities were brave to declare an emergency as early as Jan 4, with the only flaw in their response being deferring the decision to close borders with the mainland.

He also wonders whether the Covid-19 outbreak was spread between different locations by wild animals, as well as by human transmission."
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/exclusive-qa-with-hong-kong…

by northman46 | 19th Mar 20, 5:56am 1584550609

I recommend taking a look at the Imperial College report.

Basically it says unless we adopt full suppression strategy now until we have a vaccine, then 8-15% of over 70s will die. Globally around 90 million people, taking as little as 3 months.

I'm only 30. I don't know about you, but I have a lot of loved ones over 70 I want to protect. Working from home and making some sacrifices is a small price to pay. We must be proactive and protect.

by bw | 18th Mar 20, 4:11pm 1584501074

Looks to me like 'something' is trying to hold several important psychological lines in the stock market sand 20,000 on the Dow and 5,000 on the ASX.
Aussie has had several goes at breaching that today, to see a good bounce at each attempt.
It will interesting to see what happens WHEN it breaks through.
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx200

by J.C. | 18th Mar 20, 4:22pm 1584501735

Meh. Very difficult to understand these markets. GDX (gold miner ETF) has exploded 25% in past two days. These are not junior miners, but the world's largest mining companies. When you see this kind of price action, it's an indicator that it's hard to know what's going on.

by bw | 18th Mar 20, 4:36pm 1584502561

Agreed. But 5,005, 5004, 5003, 5002, 5001, 5000.1 (!) 4,984....4,973...4,955....

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 4:51pm 1584503497

Crayfish spot price update – live feed from seafood market up the road.

Today $89.95 kg – a few days ago $108kg – a month or so ago $180kg.

Sellers getting edgy, buyers in no rush – very little trading action reported.

by Mrs The Point | 18th Mar 20, 5:22pm 1584505358

My bid is at $8.99 kg some way to go yet.

by Rosenstein | 18th Mar 20, 11:22pm 1584526963

Every cloud has a silver lining

by waymad | 18th Mar 20, 4:10pm 1584501056

Report from Christchurch: close relative meets all criteria for testing - but medical centre has run out of test swabs. Another triumph of central planning.....

by NZChinese | 18th Mar 20, 4:43pm 1584502987

Is your relative coping with it OK? I hope it's just "mild". Hope she/he will be better soon

by waymad | 18th Mar 20, 5:36pm 1584506213

Thx, too soon to tell without an actual lab test....

by Henry_Tull | 18th Mar 20, 5:04pm 1584504272

We have the crisis but as yet no crisis leader, of the folk that spoke in parliament yesterday to the funding package, our PM looked and sounded the least leaderlike, the least across the brief.
It's a great shame she has not been able to adapt to the changed environment, the changed requirements as a talented leader would.

Things will get worse, before they get better.
Where will our crisis leader emerge from?

Note:
Dr B laments prior isolation was not really required....
The clear link back to recent overseas travel for these eight cases reinforces the border restrictions brought in last weekend.

‘These restrictions are not retrospective but I urge others who have arrived earlier may wish to voluntarily self-isolate and anyone who has been overseas recently and is feeling unwell should self-isolate and should contact Healthline or phone ahead to their GP,’ Dr Bloomfield says

Now, which crisis leader could help Dr B?

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/covid-19-eight-new…

by RickStrauss | 18th Mar 20, 5:17pm 1584505056

Surely the free market would have provided these test kits. SARS happened, after all, so places must be stocking usable test kits just like the airlines and hospitality industries have been forewarned and forearmed, well prepared for this situation.

by profile | 18th Mar 20, 5:41pm 1584506469

Here have aread up on the free market at work. While Jacinda was prepping for March 15 these chaps were getting on with it.
"How this South Korean company created coronavirus test kits in three weeks.
Before there were any cases of novel coronavirus confirmed in South Korea, one of the country's biotech firms had begun preparing to make testing kits to identify the disease.
On January 16, Chun Jong-yoon, the chief executive and founder of molecular biotech company Seegene, told his team it was time to start focusing on coronavirus.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-testing…

by RickStrauss | 19th Mar 20, 10:13am 1584566008

And then we have the massive public funding of research that's helping, whether the education of folk who work at Seegene or directly to labs such as the University of Saskatchewan.
https://innovationsask.ca/news/saskatchewan-funds-coronavirus-vaccine-r…

Couple that with the fact that over 50% of scientific research in the USA was publicly funded since WW2.

Almost as if a blanket belief that private sector is always better or more efficient (or worse) in medicine etc. is not wise.

by Dale Smith | 18th Mar 20, 8:16pm 1584515771

There is a familiarity about all this, ie did Christchurch, or NZ for that matter, take on all the lessons on offer from the Earthquakes. After all, if we had our emergency response packs stocked as we should post-earthquake, then we would have an on-hand decent masks, first aid kit etc.

Did the Govt. follow up on this and outfit neighbourhood response coordinators etc? To me, the is one of the main roles of Govt, ie long term planning for the day this, and other emergencies, will come.

Maybe we could teach kids the Corona version of 'Ring a Ring of roses'

by Henry_Tull | 18th Mar 20, 9:04pm 1584518656

The anecdotal evidence is most in Canterbury have, much less so the north island and especially Auckland.

by Dale Smith | 18th Mar 20, 9:27pm 1584520047

If you discount the rolls of toilet paper, and a small box of stuff that no one can remember what was in it (and everything is well past its use-by date)and where it was put, then no they haven't.

by Mr T | 18th Mar 20, 4:11pm 1584501074

(Correction): "Tomorrow, the *Q4*-2019 GDP will be released and analysts are expecting an annual +1.7% growth rate. Q3-2019 was +2.3% pa." ???

by Advisor | 18th Mar 20, 4:38pm 1584502688

NZ Super Fund has reported a 22 per cent or $10B drop in its value.

JA could include a hike in qualified age for superannuation to 67 in the next announcement - and deliver a blow to WP where it hurts.

Edit: Let's see how ACC fares after the double whammy - drop in fund value and increase in present value of future cash outflows on existing claims due to a lower OCR. I believe the euphemism for the huge funding gap is 'OCL strain'.

by Foyle | 18th Mar 20, 4:50pm 1584503439

Law changes require Peters' support. So no. Peters is in a very high risk group, so imagine he is agitating for aggressive response (could be an interesting electoral ploy for him to call out Coalition for inaction - would speak to his geriatric constituency).

by RickStrauss | 18th Mar 20, 5:18pm 1584505139

If there's one thing this crisis has demonstrated it's that the world jumps when old folk stand to be affected. Not so much if it's younger generations or those yet to come who will be facing dire circumstances, in which case it's back to undermining the scientific community and trusting in talkback instead.

by Independent_Observer | 18th Mar 20, 6:33pm 1584509580

'As long as its not going to kill me in my life time, its not an issue' - I think this is the crux of the matter on the environment/warming.

by Te Kooti | 18th Mar 20, 10:46pm 1584524776

No-one is stopping you from living in a cave and doing your bit for CC. The rest of us will do whatever we can for whoever needs help.

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 4:36pm 1584502574

With the wage subsidy package announced yesterday – just wondering.

Can an employer include an employee who is here on a temporary work visa?

by Advisor | 18th Mar 20, 4:42pm 1584502925

It is. Also applicable to those on student visas with working rights.
The WINZ website says:

to qualify, your employees must be legally working in NZ

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 4:48pm 1584503307

Really – I bet they can’t believe their luck.

by Advisor | 18th Mar 20, 5:10pm 1584504622

The next interesting development will be how Immigration NZ tackles visa extension and residence applications of foreign workers on these wage subsidies.
I expect there to be thousands of such cases, if not tens of thousands.

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 5:32pm 1584505926

Sadly I think for “The next interesting development” read “The next disappointing development”.

Probably too much to ask for common sense to be applied by Immigration NZ.

If ever there was a time for NZ to look after NZ and New Zealander’s it’s now.

Come on Lees-Galloway – lead, be bold, be strong – oops,hang on Iain, sorry, what was I thinking, never mind.

by Fritz | 18th Mar 20, 4:46pm 1584503163

We will get to 7% unemployment at least.
I caught up with a mate today who is a very senior engineer in a large engineering consultancy. He said that things look grim, the land development tap is turning off, there are both liquidity and confidence issues.
Things were a bit fragile anyway, despite the building consent headline figures.
Jobs will be lost in design consultancy as well as construction.
I was a little surprised by what he said in terms of already seeing things falling away quite a lot over the last 1-2 weeks.

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 4:59pm 1584503956

I fear the mother of all winters of discontent is about to descend upon us – in every way, shape and form.

by Theoracle | 18th Mar 20, 8:54pm 1584518089

My connections to friends working in construction tell me that within the last 24 hours business owners are pulling back from signing up new apprentices.

by Fritz | 18th Mar 20, 4:50pm 1584503410

We are hearing plenty of horror stories, but most people are recovering well. My nephew in London caught it a couple of days ago but has largely recovered.
I have an acquaintance in Britain in his 40's who also got over it fairly quickly.

by Foyle | 18th Mar 20, 4:55pm 1584503713

The big unknown is how many people are exposed but fight it off without ever having it sufficiently to even trigger a positive test. On the Diamond Princess 20% of 50+ got it, 25% of over 70's, but only 10% of under 50's. The big difference is suspicious. Maybe a whole lot of exposed people are effectively immune and never catch it at any detectable level.

by scarfie | 18th Mar 20, 5:08pm 1584504495

Isn't the idea of a cruise to be a complete lush? Might be the antioxident effect of red wine keeping the immune system boosted.

by Dale Smith | 18th Mar 20, 8:22pm 1584516168

Wine industry heading, 'drink red or your be dead,' 'drink wine and you'll be fine,'

by Kezza R | 18th Mar 20, 5:42pm 1584506525

New data coming out that it comes on then backs off for 8 days then hits you harder. Stay safe.

by Rosenstein | 18th Mar 20, 11:25pm 1584527145

Are we talking jealous ex girlfriends or viruses here?

by printer8 | 18th Mar 20, 5:20pm 1584505201

After NZSX50 being up 6% earlier in the day, it closed up only 0.08%.
Clearly stimulus of $12b injection into the economy is not outweighing future fears for the economy.

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 6:06pm 1584508007

NZ & AUS trading also appears at times to be tracking US Market Futures throughout the day – so may not always reflect future economic fortunes or otherwise.

Trading is position taking – not a long term vote.

by Foyle | 18th Mar 20, 5:24pm 1584505460

PM is finally starting to talk about preparation (working from home, school closures and self isolation but is stupidly not being explicit about almost inevitable lock-down in a few weeks. Lots of people are morons and need glove-puppet level warnings of what will happen not vague mentions of euphemistic language like self isolation. Being explicit now will give everyone ample time to prepare saving panic and supermarket runs later.

by Andrewj | 18th Mar 20, 5:51pm 1584507114

but oh the job losses.

by Andrewj | 18th Mar 20, 5:26pm 1584505575

I have an awful feeling that our world has changed forever. I don't think many jobs are going to come back for a long time especially tourism/ airlines. Senior management need to start looking for new work. Councils need to start cutting and cutting this is going to be long and ugly.
JBS in the States are starting to shut meat works. California has shut down, it's draconian.
I suspect movement around NZ will be curtailed very soon. Industry will start shutting as demand collapses. We will need a strong community.

Yet China has Avian flu in its chickens and AFS in it's pig herd, it's going to need a lot of food.

This flu will live in the third world and travel to those places will be off limits for a long time, a vaccine is 18 mths away, we will do two winters with it unless there is a major breakthrough.

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 6:10pm 1584508213

I know there’s no real comparison – but this for me is the closest I could imagine those generations going into war time must have felt – WW1 and WW2.

Into the complete unknown – except knowing it will be bad – there will be loss of life and lives will be changed forever.

Again – there’s no real comparison with the horrors of war I know – but it just gives me a little taste of what our parents, grandparents and others at the time went through.

by Andrewj | 18th Mar 20, 6:02pm 1584507769

they are saying social distancing will need to be for 18mths. I wonder which is going to worse the Wuhan flu or mankind's reaction?

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 6:08pm 1584508089

Now you've thrown it out there...

by Independent_Observer | 18th Mar 20, 6:44pm 1584510246

Was having the same thoughts last night. If we go into lock-down for the rest of the year, the financial hardship will be extreme. Depression/suicide for those who find themselves in significant financial difficulty. I understand we need to look after those who are most at risk of becoming very sick as a result of this virus, but is their health more important than the global economy? These are very tough positions to make a decsion or have a hard view on.

The history of all species has been evolution and the survival of the fittest, but now it would appear that we're willing to sacrafice the health/wealth of many, for the possibility of saving the lives of the weakest? I make these comments with the greatest compassion to those at risk - but the question will become, how long will the many be willing to stay in lock down if their kids are going hungry and they can't pay their mortgage?

by Plutocracy | 18th Mar 20, 8:24pm 1584516248

I hate to break it to you but for humans, 'survival of the fittest' actually favored groups that worked together rather than the individual. That's why we've evolved to be capable of advanced social interactions and societies (and why we're even capable of having this discussion now).

by Andrewj | 18th Mar 20, 6:07pm 1584508038

to quote the late Jack Bogle (as cited by Faber):

“My rule — and it’s good only about 99% of the time, so I have to be careful here — when these crises come along, the best rule you can possible follow is not “Don’t stand there, do something,” but “Don’t do something, stand there!”

by Rosenstein | 18th Mar 20, 11:27pm 1584527253

Yes but war compelled people to head for the trenches, COVID19 compels us to head for the couch

by Uninterested | 18th Mar 20, 5:32pm 1584505975

Now, let's have a wee think about whether the experts in the labour govt are right in changing the default funds in KiwiSaver to be more risky....

by Audaxes | 18th Mar 20, 6:20pm 1584508819

Lol - they bought the top - best to never get involved.

The value of the NZ Super Fund, which was set up to pay for future superannuation payments, has fallen by $10 billion or 22 per cent since the start of the year as a result of coronavirus market downturn.

The fund boasted less than a month ago that it had started 2020 with $47b in the kitty after recording a bumper 21 per cent pre-tax return on its investments in the 2019 calendar year. Link

by Wrong John | 18th Mar 20, 5:40pm 1584506451

I was hoping for short & sharp. I still am. But I think tomorrow's world will be a different place, somehow.
It could get ugly in places so I'm thinking that new thinking may be required to mitigate the circumstances.
I hope I'm wrong.

by Henry_Tull | 18th Mar 20, 5:52pm 1584507139

Gotta love Climate Experts - not, not even ISIS are leveraging coronavirus.

Climate experts say coronavirus could help the global fight to reduce emissions.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120301221/coronavirus…

Makes you wonder how expert climate experts are.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/ny-isis-warns-terrorists-europe-…

by Uninterested | 18th Mar 20, 6:35pm 1584509731

Yes, I have laughed at the desperation of the climate fanatics to try to keep it as the top news story!

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Mar 20, 7:28pm 1584512884

Fact - this ignorant/arrogant species was on the way to killing itself off by altering the climate. It was doing so by digging out and burning carbon which had been locked in-ground longer that it (the species) had been around. Surprisingly they had evolved in the non-carbon habitat. Who would have thought?

In answer to that question, clearly some folk don't. It's a serious 'win' that has the potential to do more good for our species than if there were no virus doing the rounds. Try dispassionate thinking, apples with apples, always good.

And stop the 'fanatic' crap, eh? Take a good look at why it is that you need to avoid your responsibilities to others. Do you have offspring?

by Rosenstein | 18th Mar 20, 11:33pm 1584527637

You should do speaking tours in northern Italian hospitals.

by waymad | 18th Mar 20, 5:54pm 1584507244

And the inevitable has occurred.....

by Audaxes | 18th Mar 20, 6:08pm 1584508082

The UST 10yr has also risen during today's trading to now at 0.80%

What's going on with this website's information sources? - UST 10 year yield quote

Catch sight of the US 3 month TBill
Is GFC2 Over?

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 6:13pm 1584508387

No problem - the market's just broken - that's all.

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 6:46pm 1584510411

The China experience with the virus just seems to have too many question-marks to be considered the gold standard response.

I look forward to a European country exiting the crisis (as I imagine they do to) then having a meaningful and verifiable data set – enabling some sort of quasi reliable road map that can instill a level of confidence in terms of what to do and what to expect to get through this.

Currently it’s not overly reassuring with what seems a “making it up as we go” strategy.

by Audaxes | 18th Mar 20, 7:31pm 1584513077

Fed Launches Primary Dealer Credit Facility Which Will Accept Stocks As Collateral

by Andrewj | 18th Mar 20, 7:53pm 1584514385

So the Fed is buying stocks and calling it collateral?

by custard | 18th Mar 20, 7:55pm 1584514542

Makes sense I guess:

Credit extended to primary dealers under this facility may be collateralized by a broad range of investment grade debt securities, including commercial paper and municipal bonds, and a broad range of equity securities including, but not limited to, toilet paper.

by Kezza R | 18th Mar 20, 8:25pm 1584516340

Lets get this show on the road and loose 50% on global stocks.

by Nzdan | 18th Mar 20, 8:48pm 1584517725

Not a big deal. Didn't realise Switzerland had a military, but they're using it now.

PUBLISHEDMAR 18, 2020, 12:43 AM SGT
ZURICH (REUTERS) - Switzerland's health-care system could collapse by the end of the month if the new coronavirus keeps spreading at current rates, a government official warned on Tuesday (March 17).

Daniel Koch, head of the Federal Office of Health's communicable diseases division, said the rapid rise had outstripped the state's ability to record new cases in real time.

"People who become infected today will only hit us in 10 days from now," Koch said at a news conference.

"We have to make sure the infection rate goes down today, because otherwise, in 10 days (Swiss hospitals) won't be able to handle it."

Switzerland has mobilised up to 8,000 military members to assist civil authorities and medical personnel.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-swiss-hospitals-f…

by Ngrrk | 18th Mar 20, 10:04pm 1584522288

If you haven't already read this it provides an interesting critique of the government's recent CV package

https://croakingcassandra.com/2020/03/18/the-curates-egg/

by Henry_Tull | 19th Mar 20, 12:21am 1584530474

Other counties packages compared.
Some up to 14% GDP.
https://youtu.be/kDFgO_TZEoc