New Zealand will move to Alert Level 3 at 11.59pm next Monday April 27 - nearly five weeks after going into Level 4.
This means the country will remain in full lockdown over ANZAC weekend.
Cabinet ministers made the decision during a meeting on Monday.
They will review the situation again on May 11.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said: "Ultimately, we have taken a balanced approach, and one that the Director General of Health not only supported, but also recommended."
She said there was "consensus" among Cabinet ministers (who are from Labour and New Zealand First - there are no Green Party ministers in Cabinet), but didn't go so far as to saying it was a unanimous decision.
At Level 3, an additional 400,000 people are expected to return to work. Treasury expects Level 3 to reduce "normal level" output by 25%. According to its modelling, Level 4 slashes it by 40%, Level 2 by 10-15% and Level 1 by 5-10%.
Contact tracing an issue
Ardern said Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield was confident there's currently "no widespread undetected community transmission" in New Zealand.
"Nearly every case identified since April 1 is as a result of overseas travel or contact with someone with the virus, often in existing clusters. The number of individual cases that don’t have an obvious connection in that period stands now at only 8," she said.
"Our transmission rate, the number of cases each person with the virus passes it onto, is now 0.48 - less than half a person each. Overseas the average is 2.5 people."
However a report prepared by University of Otago epidemiologist, Ayesha Verrall, and considered by Cabinet, found the country's contact tracing system isn't up to scratch.
In response, Cabinet has approved investment of up to $55 million to improve contact tracing.
Verrall said: “The capacity of the 12 Public Health Units (PHUs) in New Zealand is the primary factor limiting New Zealand’s ability to scale up its case management and contact tracing response to Covid-19.
"In March the workload of PHUs exceeded their capacity to conduct rapid contact tracing on occasion, even though case numbers were less than 100 per day. Expansion of the Public Health Unit workforce is an urgent need."
In terms of the National Close Contact Service (NCCS), set up by the Ministry of Health on March 24 to do contact tracing at times of high demand for PHUs, Verrall said: “The NCCS is an impressive service especially considering it has been established in just weeks.
“However it is not a suitable nor desirable system for managing all contacts. The NCCS also has limited use in certain important situations, such as in the event of a large complex cluster or specific scenarios that require intense involvement of Medical Officers of Health."
Health Minister David Clark said the funding will mean PHUs can be expanded as required, with additional surge capacity of up to 300 full time equivalent staff. The NCCS will also get extra resources to manage complex investigations, such as detailed analysis of clusters.
Verrall also said: "At the time of writing the Ministry of Health and local developers are building a smartphone app to assist with contact tracing. As it is not yet completed and a number of key aspects are under consideration, it cannot be meaningfully evaluated."
'Elimination doesn’t mean zero cases'
Ardern went on to say: "We have a relatively low proportion of serious cases and, according to the Oxford University Coronavirus Government Response Tracker, one of the lowest mortality rates in the world...
"Our testing has scaled up and we have now tested over 85,000 New Zealanders, one of the highest testing rates per capita in the world.
"In the last few days, we expanded testing to include random testing in Queenstown, the Waikato, Canterbury and Auckland. We have tested over a thousand people this way and so far have produced not a single positive result...
"In short, the effort of our team of 5 million has broken the chain of transmission and taken a quantum leap forward in our goal to eliminate the virus.
"Elimination doesn’t mean zero cases, it means zero tolerance for cases. It means when a case emerges, and it will, we test, we contact trace, we isolate, and we do that every single time with the ambition that when we see COVID-19, we eliminate it. That is how we will keep our transmission rate under 1, and it is how we will keep succeeding.
"And we have seen success...
"But I also feel a huge responsibility to ensure that we do not lose any of the gains we have made either."
There were nine new cases of COVID-19 reported in New Zealand on Monday (seven confirmed and two probable cases), bringing the total number of cases up to 1440.
Twelve people have lost their lives to COVID-19, meanwhile 974 have recovered.
The criteria
Level 3 is aimed at allowing businesses to open their premises, but only if they can do so safely and without interacting with their customers face-to-face. People can only expand their household bubbles under limited circumstances.
The following criteria must be met for New Zealand to move to Level 3:
- The Director General of Health must have a level of satisfaction community transmission is unlikely. There needs to be data from testing and surveillance, public health experts, statisticians, and modellers for there to be “reasonable certainty” around this.
- Contact-tracing must be sufficiently rigorous, with surge capacity available in the case of an outbreak.
- Self-isolation, quarantine, and border measures need to be robust and adhered to.
- There needs to be capacity in the health system and personal protective equipment should be available for those who need it.
Cabinet ministers also considered:
- The effects on the economy and on society more broadly.
- Public attitudes towards the measures and the extent to which people and businesses understand, accept, and are overall complying with them.
- The ability to operationalise restrictions, including satisfactory detailed implementation planning by government agencies.
National: Groundwork not done to lift lockdown
National released this statement in response:
The decision for New Zealand to stay locked down in Level 4 shows the Government hasn’t done the groundwork required to have us ready, Opposition Leader Simon Bridges says.
“The public has done a great job of self-isolating and social distancing. The entire country has made huge sacrifices to ensure the four week lockdown was effective.
“Unfortunately the Government hasn’t done enough and isn’t ready by its own standards and rhetoric. New Zealand is being held back because the Government has not used this time to ensure best practice of testing and tracing and the availability of PPE hasn’t been at the standard it should have been.
“The rate of testing for the first half of lockdown was low, work has only just begun on surveillance testing to confirm whether community transmission is occurring. Tracing is the biggest challenge and experts have identified major shortcomings in the methods being used by the Government.
“This is a real shame as businesses will suffer further damage and that will lead to poor health outcomes as a result of the huge stress this will cause for a lot of people.
“Rapid and easily accessible testing for workers with symptoms will be essential to give small businesses the confidence needed to get back to work.
“I’m sure many Kiwis feel frustration that we still can’t do many things Australians have done through the entire lockdown period, at great cost in terms of jobs and livelihoods, with similar health outcomes.
“I now worry that the harm of staying in lockdown will be greater than if we were to come out. We will no doubt see a rise in mental health problems and stress related illnesses.
“I also have real concerns about the delay in healthcare for some people, like cancer treatment, screening and thousands of operations across the country.
“New Zealanders can be proud of the sacrifices they have made during this difficult time. The Government must now move as fast as it can to sort out the issues with tracing, testing and PPE so we can get our country moving again.”
Level 3 overview
The requirements under Level 3 are:
- Business
- Work from home unless it’s impossible to do so.
- Businesses can open premises, but can’t physically interact with customers.
- Building and construction, manufacturing and forestry can open under strict health and safety and physical distancing rules.
- Businesses that are accessed by the public or customers such as retail, hardware stores and restaurants can open but only for online or phone purchases and contactless delivery or click and collect.
- Personal
- Stay within your immediate household bubble. You can expand your bubble to reconnect with close family, or bring in caregivers, or support isolated people. This extended bubble should remain exclusive.
- Stay home other than for essential personal movement – going to work, school, or for local recreation.
- Keep two metres of physical distancing outside the home (including on public transport), and one metre in controlled environments like schools and workplaces.
- Travel
- Don’t travel between regions unless this is for essential work, medical reasons, shifting home or business, going home after being in isolation after returning from overseas, and a limited number of other reasons.
- Education
- Schools (years 1 to 10) and early childhood education centres can safely open, but will have limited capacity. Children should learn at home if possible.
- Tertiary education facilities open for limited activities involving small groups (up to 10 people), and with distance learning provision for others.
- Recreation
- Low-risk, local recreation activities allowed. Swims at the beach, day walks and fishing from a wharf are allowed. Boating, yachting and team sports or training aren’t allowed.
- Public venues remain closed (IE libraries, museums, cinemas, food courts, gyms, pools, playgrounds, markets).
- Weddings, funerals and tangihanga allowed if there are fewer than 10 people. Physical distancing and public health measures must be maintained.
- Health
- Primary care services can open (including dental and allied health) and use virtual, non-contact consultations where possible.
See this document for more on all four alert levels.
Ardern's comments in full
Here's a copy of the statement Ardern made on Monday:
Over the past few weeks I have often used my time at this podium to acknowledge the people on the frontline.
Today I want to remember the people in New Zealand who have lost someone to COVID-19, or the many more who had the terror of almost losing someone.
Throughout this pandemic there have been individuals who I have tracked the progress of. I didn’t know their names, but I knew their status. And I still get a phone call for every individual person we lose to COVID-19.
We may be amongst a small number of countries where that is still able to happen, where the numbers we have lost have been small, but we cannot forget that every number is someone’s father, someone’s mum, a relative and a friend and someone we have all been united in an effort to protect and to save.
And that is why we as a country took on the challenge of staring down COVID-19 – because we believed that decisive action, going hard and going early, gave us the very best chance of stamping out the virus. And it has.
We have done what very few countries have been able to do. We have stopped a wave of devastation.
Our transmission rate, the number of cases each person with the virus passes it onto, is now 0.48, less than half a person each. Overseas the average is 2.5 people. We have amongst the lowest number of confirmed cases per 100,000 people in the world.
We have a relatively low proportion of serious cases and, according to the Oxford University Coronavirus Government Response Tracker, one of the lowest mortality rates in the world.
Nearly every case identified since April 1 is as a result of overseas travel or contact with someone with the virus, often in existing clusters. The number of individual cases that don’t have an obvious connection in that period stands now at only 8.
Our testing has scaled up and we have now tested over 85,000 New Zealanders, one of the highest testing rates per capita in the world.
In the last few days, we expanded testing to include random testing in Queenstown, the Waikato, Canterbury and Auckland. We have tested over a thousand people this way and so far have produced not a single positive result.
The Director General of Health is confident that there is currently no widespread undetected community transmission in New Zealand.
In short, the effort of our team of 5 million has broken the chain of transmission and taken a quantum leap forward in our goal to eliminate the virus.
Elimination doesn’t mean zero cases, it means zero tolerance for cases. It means when a case emerges, and it will, we test, we contact trace, we isolate, and we do that every single time with the ambition that when we see COVID-19, we eliminate it. That is how we will keep our transmission rate under 1, and it is how we will keep succeeding.
And we have seen success.
You, all of you, have stopped the uncontrolled explosion of COVID-19 in New Zealand, and I couldn’t feel prouder of the start we have made together.
But I also feel a huge responsibility to ensure that we do not lose any of the gains we have made either.
On that basis, New Zealand will move out of Alert Level 4 lockdown at 11.59pm on Monday April 27, one week from today. We will then hold in Alert Level 3 for two weeks, before reviewing how we are tracking again, and making further decisions at Cabinet on the 11th of May.
In making this decision, Cabinet discussed in depth all of the data we have shared with you daily. We looked at the gains we have made in our results, but also our systems.
We considered that the longer we are in lockdown, the less likely it is we will need to go back. We also considered moving alert levels on the 23rd of April, in just 48 hours’ time.
The sacrifice made to date has been huge. And Cabinet wanted to make sure we lock in our gains, and give ourselves some additional certainty.
Waiting to move to alert levels next week costs us two more business days, but gives us much greater longer term health and economic returns down the track. It means we are less likely to go backwards.
Ultimately, we have taken a balanced approach, and one that the Director General of Health not only supported, but also recommended.
This time we now have will be used to prepare, on all fronts.
This week businesses will be allowed to get ready to open, such as employers re-entering premises to receive stock if necessary, but we ask that in doing so they stick to social distancing and their bubbles.
The same principle applies for preparing schools.
Schools and early learning centres can be accessed this week for cleaning, maintenance and any other preparations. The current plan is for schools to be able to re-open for a Teacher Only Day on 28 April as part of their preparation, and we expect those who need to attend, to be able to from 29 April. It may take a bit longer for some schools and early learning centres to be ready.
And from a health perspective, testing will continue including giving ongoing public confidence that we are reaching isolated, rural, maōri and pacific communities, contact tracing will be bolstered even further, and we will continue to use the best evidence, advice and modelling we have to make daily decisions to serve New Zealanders.
The most important thing to remember in the meantime though, is that all of this preparation takes us to an alert level in one week’s time – a recovery room of sorts – that has many restrictions
Yes Alert Level 3 allows more economic activity like construction, manufacturing and forestry, but it does not allow more social activity. And for good reason. If we want to make sure that we are a health success story, and ensure our economy can start to operate again without the virus taking off, we need to get the next phase right. The worst thing we can do for our country is to yo-yo between levels, with all of the uncertainty that this would bring.
We need to move with confidence. And that means following the rules.
So here’s a reminder of the principles for Level 3 when we get there.
1. Stay home. If you are not at work, school, exercising or getting essentials, then you must be at home, the same as at Level 4.
2. Work and learn from home if you can. We still want the vast majority of people working from home, and children and young people learning from home. At-risk students and staff should also stay at home, and they will be supported to do so. Early learning centres and schools will physically be open for up to Year 10 for families that need them.
3. Make your business COVID-19 safe. COVID-19 has spread in workplaces, so the quid pro quo of being able to open is doing it in a way that doesn’t spread the virus. Important industries like construction, manufacturing and forestry will be able to open, as will retail so long as it is contactless retail.
4. Stay regional. You can exercise at parks or beaches within your region, but the closer to home the better. Activities must be safe – keep 2 metres away from anybody not in your bubble. Make minimal trips.
5. Keep your bubble as small as possible. If you need to, you can expand your bubble a small amount to bring in close family, isolated people or caregivers.
6. Wash your hands often with soap. Then dry them. Cough into your elbow.
7. If you’re sick stay at home and seek advice from your GP or Healthline about getting a test. And quickly. There is no stigma to COVID-19. None. We will only be successful if everyone is willing to play their part in finding it wherever it is.
These rules will be so important. We all want to continue to progress down the levels. The best hope of getting back to normal as soon as possible, is never getting ahead of where we are right now.
So, to recap. We are currently in lockdown, and are staying there for the next week.
From Tuesday morning the 28th of April we will move to Level 3 and stay there for two weeks. Those two weeks gives us another cycle of transmission to assess how we are doing. From there, we will move if we can and if we’re ready.
But only when we’re ready, and only when it’s safe.
And so, this weekend, ANZAC weekend, enjoy the company of your bubble, stay local, and reflect on the amazing sacrifice of our forebears.
Decades ago they came together in the most testing of circumstances half a world away and helped forge who we are today. It was a very different battle than the one we are in now, but the character of who we are as a country remains exactly the same.
So please, stay strong, stay home, be kind. And let’s finish what we started.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.