Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news the downshift in economic activity is falling to eye-watering levels.
First up, at the World Trade Organization, 17 key countries have joined together to sideline the US, reviving its dispute resolution functions with a "Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement". Those countries include the European Union, Australia, New Zealand and interestingly, both China and Taiwan.
And Singapore is reporting that trade ministers from Australia, Canada, South Korea and New Zealand have agreed to facilitate the resumption of essential cross-border travel to keep global supply chains operational.
And that is necessary as the world's factories wind down as orders dry up.
There were two April factory PMI's out for the US manufacturing sector and both fell sharply. The local ISM one however didn't fall as much as anticipated (-41) whereas the internationally benchmarked Markit one did fall more than expected (-36). In both however, it was the collapse of new orders that registered most strikingly. But neither has reached the depths of the GFC yet.
Even at these depressed levels it is clear demand is even lower and more cuts are just a matter of time.
Not helping markets is the US Administration threatening a new round of tariffs on China as a way to revive its re-election prospects.
The latest update to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model shows Q2-2020 shrinkage of the US Economy running at a very worrying -16%. That suggests the loss in economic activity is almost -US$1 tln in the quarter. (The equivalent New Zealand decline in the GDPLive model is -11.6% in Q2 - equivalent to -NZ$9 bln for the quarter.)
Boeing is seeking US$25 bln in bond funding to pay its bills.
And they are in a market being flooded with US Treasury offerings. This quarter more than $1.9 trillion of US Treasury issuance will be made and markets worry buyers for that sort of flood just aren't there.
But this data didn't weigh on Friday equity markets as heavily as the earnings disappointments, especially from the tech sector which was assumed to be a resilient pillar of the equities market. Apple, Amazon and Google for example flashed warning signals. More than 1000 US companies reported March earnings last week and overall they disappointed. There are another 1632 to report this coming week, almost 8,700 worldwide. Only a minority will be positive. The big trend is the withdrawal of earnings guidance even as company PR continued to try to sound optimistic. Exxon reported a -US$600 mln loss, its first in decades.
The S&P500 fell -2.8% on Friday to finish the week with a small loss. In Europe overnight they also fell on Friday by about -2% but still posted large weekly gains. The Frankfurt DAX weekly gain came in at +5.0% for the week, the London FTSE100 was down -0.1%, while the Paris CAC40 was up +4.0% for the week.
Shanghai and Hong Kong were closed for a national holiday on Friday and will be closed today too, but they had already booked good gains for their truncated week of +1.8% and +3.4% respectively. Tokyo booked a +1.9% weekly gain.
Interestingly, legendary investor Warren Buffet revealed he sold all his US airline shares recently (at a loss) as he doesn't see any viable future in the industry. His company posted a -US$50 bln loss for the quarter after his equity portfolio took a -US$70 bln loss. (See page 4.)
The Australian factory PMI fell hard (to -44) with sharp declines in new orders, production, and crucially employment. But this isn't yet near GFC levels. But the longer-running rival AIGroup version of the PMI was much more downbeat (-36). Either way, it's a tough situation.
But going the other way, China's official PMI's are both showing small expansions in the manufacturing and service sectors. Interestingly, these official surveys have tended to be more conservative than the equivalent private surveys. In any case they are reporting a small expansion in both March and April which is vastly different to what nearly every other country is experiencing.
But labour trouble is brewing in China, with strikes and demands for unpaid wages rising. China's jobless rate is about 5.9% and although stable, that is much higher than before the pandemic and the rise involves tens of millions of workers and students who now can't get jobs.
Still those pressures haven't stopped a quick rebound in internal tourism in China on their national holiday this weekend.
There seems to be renewed impetus to democracy clampdowns in Hong Kong as the Beijing screws go on.
The Japanese Markit PMI is another one to fall, but while it was notable (-42), it wasn't anything like the very large drops in the US, and is a drop nothing like the GFC (-30).
Back in Australia and according to the April CoreLogic Home Value Index results, housing values did not see any evidence of a material decline in the month, despite a sharp drop in market activity and a severe weakening in consumer sentiment. But prices did slip marginally in both Melbourne and Hobart in April.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 3,476,000 and up +170,000 from this time Saturday which is a faster rising rate.
Now, just under 33% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +61,000 since this time Saturday to 1,143,400. This is the slower rate of increase. US deaths are now more than 67,000. Global deaths are about to exceed 246,000. Brazil has now pushed China out of the top ten. It is hard to know about the quality of Brazilian data, especially given the weirdness of their President, but the official data seems to be exploding there. Likely the real situation is much worse. Sweden seems to have settled into an infection rate of +500/day and a death rate of 12%, a situation they are tolerating and have done for the past five weeks. There seems no slowing in their 'herd immunity' strategy, yet at least.
In Australia, there are now 6801 cases (+34 since Friday), 95 deaths (+2) and a stable recovery rate of just over 85%. 75 people are in hospital there (-8) with 28 in ICU (unchanged).
There have been 1487 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with +2 new cases (in an Auckland aged care cluster), and less than yesterday (+6 on Saturday). Twenty people have now died (+1 from Friday), almost all geriatric patients. There are eight people in hospital with the disease (+3), but none are in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 85% and stable.
The UST 10yr yield is firm at just over 0.62%. Their 2-10 curve is marginally flatter at +42 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also marginally flatter at +17 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve continues the trend at +52 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is little-changed since this time Saturday at 0.86%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.52% because they have a public holiday. But the NZ Govt 10 yr yield has had a very sharp fall, down -11 bps to 0.62% compounding the recent selloff and we are now lower than both the Aussie and US equivalents. New Zealand swap rates ended the week at record low levels, diving at the long end.
Gold has turned up and ended last week at US$1,703/oz.
Oil prices are up marginally today. In the US, they are currently at just under US$20/bbl. International oil prices are up a similar small amount to just over US$26.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar fell at the end of last week by almost -1c, but has firmed somewhat since, and is now at 60.7 USc. On the cross rates we are also slightly firmer at 94.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down however to 54.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is holding at 66.4.
Bitcoin is up today but by less than +1% to US$8,851. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
156 Comments
Cameron Bagrie is always worth a read, and this article is no exception. Housing market is in for a bit of a correction for sure
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/home-property/300002353/bumpy-ride-a…
But oddly its not all rainbows and cupcakes on oneroof right now even if they do like to spin it to the positive
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/oneroof-mood-of-the-market-covid-19-hasn…
Lol, so according to their survey, 80%+ would have been looking at buying or selling this year if not for Covid19? Sample might be a tad skewed me thinks.
Also "What the survey clearly shows is that Covid-19 has affected Kiwis' perception of the market, but it hasn't impacted their plans yet. "
Vs
"while almost a third (32 percent) said they had put plans on hold due to Covid-19."
What sort of crayon eater do you have to be to make that statement and not feel like a complete hypocrite (it was Owen Vaughan.. oneroof chief spin doctor .)
Yes it's not looking good for those markets that were over bloated by lots of overseas dodgy money. Both Australian and Canadian property markets on shaky ground, and it's questionable how much these markets can be continued to be propped by by their banks?
The Guardian: Renters bail out and sales plummet as coronavirus hits property market. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/29/renters-bail-out…."
Better Dwelling article: This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Make Big Drop, and 1 in 5 Canadian Businesses Laid Off More Than 80% of Staff. https://betterdwelling.com/this-weeks-top-stories-canadian-real-estate-…
That is 100% it mate.
All three are effed in the short to medium term, but think NZ will lag in the recovery, given they are starting behind everyone else, made worse by the points you raise.
Not attacking the government here, as consensus at the time was accepting and understanding, but i think hindsight will show that the NZ shutdown was a bit of an overreaction.
Personal view - I've done Canada, UK and Australia and its an easy Australia for me.
All three have their merits, but the ability to live in a warmer climate, on a higher wage and while still being very close to NZ is great. Each to their own, but its bloody hard on the family side of things when you're on the other side of the world, especially if you plan to add to your clan.
The beauty about the UK is what was available outside of the UK. Two years was enough for me there. Canada loses to Australia on climate, career and distance to NZ, but still a very cool place.
Yeah, Australia is well ahead on the warmer climate thing.
You might want to think that there are Interest.co commentators who have left Australia for Climate reasons, re-settling in NZ.
That family.clan/travel thing was was temporary aberration. "But come ye back......"
There doesn’t seem to be much analysis of rents in NZ but it’s obvious that the inventory is building and demand is way down. So rents will definitely drop, that’s the market for you.
I guess we might see some stats in the next couple of weeks.
I wouldn’t like to be an investor owning an Auckland cbd apartment right now.
It was never sustainable. You only have to look at the metrics he points to (house price to income ratio being the major one) to see that it was going to pop. Bordering on criminal the way our RB and others around the world have handled the problem by continuing to lower interest rates to keep house prices rising, then pretending they are doing it to "encourage investment" or "raise inflation" or some other bulls**t excuse. They know it didn't work the first few times, saw the results and aren't stupid. Therefore they knew exactly the result they would get when kept doing it... now there is nothing left in the tank except money printing and further debt to be paid by the generation they screwed out of housing.
We have ONE SHOT at rebuilding our economy and society in a robust and dynamic way after we get tough this emergency - and we're nearly there!.
ONE.
The alternative is to try and reinstate 'what we had' - and that had no long term future for us. Someone else, maybe, but not us.
Let's not stuff it up, because we don't have the capacity to have another go, in any way, shape or form.
I notice the troll-like HT just had to comment after your - totally correct - observation.
I also note that the avoidance of broadcasting fact, is a feature of all kinds of Media outlet at the moment. We should be having a discussion about the new shape of society - including adding resilience/buffering to be able to withstand shocks - but we aren't.
Yet.....
Agreed. When the equivalent of legalised mafia drug-lords can be propped up by the tax-payer we know the zombie-apocalypse is not far off. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121359471/coronavirus-wealthy-liqour-s…
This is Gold Standard nothing.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/415731/woman-on-flight-with-covid-1…
Contact tracing 4 and a half weeks later.
A second wave of contact tracing, possibly for data gathering purposes.
But something about that doesn't make sense, if she'd been counted as a probable case of covid-19, she would have already been contacted to have her contacts traced and tested. I doubt she was an actual covid19 probable case, possibly she was told something and misinterpreted it.
and that is why we went into lockdown as they knew our contract tracing and testing is not up to it
and why we are still in there, example in NSW they have an oldbreak in a rest home , and all staff are tested DAILY and now they have faster testing, we have areas of NZ now that could go back to level 1 with good testing, contract tracing and army roadblocks,
west coast, tarawhiti, whanganui/taranaki
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/more-staff-contract-covid19-…
Track and tracing is so important isn't it?
Really "strange" that farmers inability to use NAIT properly with its track and trace functionality due to it being "hard" and interfering with rugby training is not seen as a significant factor in the control of M Bovis.
I guess it's all to do with the message that it's all MPIs and the Labour party fault not withstanding that it appears National instructed MPI officers not to prosecute fines on farmers not using NAIT
only now they are testing everyone attached to the marist college, you have to wonder if we have done as well as we could have, and those asking for NZ to open up again including me (I believe some areas could be level two and one now) it gives me no confidence that we wont keep it out. its starting to feel like we did all this for what.
as an aside the confinement of incoming passengers in hotels is not going well, one tried to escape down a fire escape on the weekend and got stuck so had to be rescued
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12329313
Yep. The video of the guy in hospital is worth a look.
Who knows about testing.
Current tests are a snap shot in time, does anyone know if MoH are doing/thinking of re antibodies test? Should the school temperature test at the gate?
The testing, contact tracing has got to be working before we get to join in with Australia in anything.
The concern is the lockdown is the counter balance for a bad backend.
the DHB is making the situation worse by not listening to those on the floor, the nurses at wiatakere asked if they are rostered on to the covid 19 ward they stick to that ward (common sense) , but no they were sent through the hospitals on other rosters and now two have tested positive and 57 people need to be isolated, typical middle management stuff up
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/03/1156009/waitakere-57-staff-stood-…
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/01/1153078/waitakere-hospital-story
Root cause analysis would be fascinating to find the prompting cause.
Suspect we would have to give all involved an immunity pin in order to get close.
And the counter balance concern....looks confirmed.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300003713/coronavirus…
Ardern said a move to alert level 2 — which will allow all businesses and public facilities to open with a 1-metre social distance maintained — would be determined by the number of Covid-19 cases, and the "preparedness" of all aspects of the health response.
Give folk an as at now condition report of the health response preparedness.
We are 7 days out.
Most would bet there will be on tracing APP.
What's the result of the PPE stocktake?.
What's the result of care facilities audits.
Sarcasm?
Ah yes, remind me of how many fines there were prior to M Bovis at which pt it was rather too late ol boy? Was it less than 10, was it less than 2?
The Nat years, remember those golden times, so much promise and freedom, Double ag by 2025, clean the rivers by June 2375, how many tax payer funded irrigation schemes can be considered too many, conservation land, not a prob? ....
You know if there had been more prosecutions prior to M Bovis maybe the fools at FF would have forced an evolution in NAIT to make it more fit for purpose.
Ah but that's the point. 99% of farmers were noncompliant so they have only fined the few that they could prove were really deliberate because in trying to prove a case against the rest they'd simply prove the system was actually a fault. Farmers are often singled out for not adopting tech, my experience is often farmers are very quick to look at the lastest tech and quickly decide that actually that will make the job harder and won't waste their time.
You know I was over in Oz a couple of years ago, they have a similar system with a few more checks and balances and as far as I saw it is widely used. Kiwis in my experience just put things in the too hard basket, political suicide even though they are widely used in other more Advanced economies, dont get me started on CGT, Land Tax, Sales Tax and means testing pensions.
Would love to see an article by Interest on why Kiwis have held out on these but Im not holding my breathe.World class education systems but a country built on farming and selling houses to each other. Sth Pacific Hillbillies.
Kiwis so dumb lah, its not just a slogan at CCP Central.
Maybe your understandable frustration could be directed to the creators of the system & workflow, more so than the users.
For instance.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rnz.co.nz/article/8d4300c0-13be-4395-b…
smalltown - does Australia use the same RFID frequency NZ does? I heard in earlier days that its the RFID frequency used here which is partly what made it a dog. It was implied at the time that they knew about it, but someone had a mate who had invested heavily in the chosen RFID readers etc, so they didn't want to change.
“ Brazil has now pushed China out of the top ten. It is hard to know about the quality of Brazilian data, especially given the weirdness of their President, but the official data seems to be exploding there. Likely the real situation is much worse.”
- Yes, and China’s data is what we would call “quality” as well?
Secretary of State Pompeo adamant, well almost, that CV19 outbreak originated from the suspect lab, not the unfortunate wet market. So say so far US intelligence sources, five eyes? Goes on to say that those who are responsible will be made accountable. Sorry to digress in order to beat the old drum, but would love that same message to be rammed home with a great number of our local government bureaucracy. Perhaps our government’s announcement to dismantle the dead hand of the RMA in order to facilitate and hasten NZ’s recovery progress is a beacon of hope.
Contrary to other posts today the USA is not saying CV19 is a lab created virus. They acknowledge it is the natural beast itself. Their pitch is that it was allowed, inadvertently one assumes, to escape in that form from the lab and that is the source of the outbreak not the wet market. Very early on Taiwan by backtracking, had concluded the wet market as not being the source.
Then again this in Newsweek:
NEWSWEEK: Dr. Fauci Backed Controversial Wuhan Lab with Millions of U.S. Dollars for Risky Coronavirus Research
https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millio…
But just last year, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the organization led by Dr. Fauci, funded scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and other institutions for work on gain-of-function research on bat corona-viruses.
In 2019, with the backing of NIAID, the National Institutes of Health committed $3.7 million over six years for research that included some gain-of-function work. The program followed another $3.7 million, 5-year project for collecting and studying bat corona-viruses, which ended in 2019, bringing the total to $7.4 million.
Many scientists have criticized gain of function research, which involves manipulating viruses in the lab to explore their potential for infecting humans, because it creates a risk of starting a pandemic from accidental release.
SARS-CoV-2 , the virus now causing a global pandemic, is believed to have originated in bats. U.S. intelligence, after originally asserting that the coronavirus had occurred naturally, conceded last month that the pandemic may have originated in a leak from the Wuhan lab. Dr. Fauci did not respond to Newsweek's requests for comment.
Oh please, of course the Turnip administration are going to say anything that paints China in as worse of a light as possible. It helps their re-election chances to beat the old "China bad!" drum. We all know how brilliant American intelligence is, I bet we won't see any evidence produced by Pompom because I doubt they have any that would stand up to even a cursory look (see Iraq WMD "intelligence"). The WHO (which are a lot more trustworthy, despite their recent issues) have stated clearly it came from natural sources. Even researchers in the US concluded the same: https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/03/26/genomic-research-points-to-nat…. You have an administration that believes in conspiracy theories (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Conspiracy_theories_promoted_by_…), it's no wonder they will believe/start another one.
What's more likely, that the virus came from a natural host, passed to humans (just like all the previous cross species infections in recent history - SARS/MERS/Bird Flu etc etc), or that some nefarious agents in China killed thousands of their own people and create untold economic damage by knowingly infecting them as a huge experiment that got out of control. If you believe such nonsense, I pity you.
This kind of naive trust of China is incredibly dangerous.
"some nefarious agents in China killed thousands of their own people and create untold economic damage by knowingly infecting them as a huge experiment that got out of control. If you believe such nonsense, I pity you."
Yeah except that's not what they're saying. There is a difference between "created in a lab" conspiracy theories and it being a natural virus that got out of a lab due to sloppy security procedures. There is a lab 13km from the wet market that was doing research on bat coronaviruses. China has a history of lying about absolutely everything. We *already know* they tried to cover this up. In November 2019 they attempted to cover up a Black Plague outbreak in Beijing. They tried to cover up SARS 1 until they eventually had to admit they were lying about the data *by a factor of 10.* https://www.theguardian.com/society/2003/apr/21/china.sars
So, to put the question back to you: what's more likely, that they're lying or that they're telling the truth?
Look at how they threw the toys out of the cot immediately at ScoMo calling for an investigation. If you think there is nothing suspect about the official Chinese data and narrative I have a bridge to sell you.
I'm not a Trump fan by any stretch of the imagination, but "Trump said it so it's wrong" logic is just lazy thinking.
Agree re different rules and Parker is all over the place. He has been going on and on like a broken record the past 3 years about public participation and now he introduces a law that nullifies public participation. I realise he argues desperate times call for desperate measures, but....
Innovation rolls on. The cost of making urea looks like it is going to get markedly cheaper.
"The catalyst produced ammonia from N2 and H2 gases at 50 °C with an extremely small activation energy of 20 kJ mol−1, which is less than half that for conventional catalysts reported."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15868-8#Abs1
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-fueling-world-sustainably-ammonia-energy…
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/88271/mike-joy-says-we-are-collis…
But we can just rely on more technology, eh? After all, it wasn't technology that got us.....
Oops, it was.
The mostly asymptomatic nature of wuflu makes it economically impossible to stamp out. About 1 in 4 or 5 infected having noticeable symptoms (according to recent serologic, prison and ship outbreaks) local clusters will have to grow to ~5 cases on average to catch it. Lag in symptoms means it spreads further in the weeks that takes unless lockdown maintain for ages. That makes eradication economically untenable and lockdown pointless.
I was very keen for strong border controls in Feb, and relieved when we got lockdown (after lax border control had let it in) as at that point it appeared mortality was about 2-3% and 5-10% if hospitals were overwhelmed. It's now clear that was wrong. At worst it's 0.5% (proven by Iceland) as most cases are undetected. Same as 4-5 months of your normal risk of death. With good preparation - getting fit, losing some weight, Vit-D, perhaps convalescent plasma therapy and prophylactic hydroxyquinine (both hinted to work), resuming life and letting it run its course is best. Incurring 10's of millions of economic damage per assumed life saved is does more damage than it saves - being so much poorer results in worse health for NZers
Re Iceland, authorities were keen to point out that people had really told the wrong story about their testing there. In their words, a bunch of positive tested folk were asymptomatic when they were tested BUT then went on to experience symptoms as common to others. So, many media and commentary sources then only told half that picture, giving a very wrong impression that still persists.
We are not alone. Lockdown exit strategy in UK a shambles. Science or bungling numbers? How well will the numbers spin here in NZ, I wonder.
Covid-19: Leading statistician slams UK’s reporting of swab tests as “travesty of science”
BMJ 2020; 369 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1664 (Published 27 April 2020)
A leading statistician has criticised the UK government’s daily reporting of covid-19 swab test results, saying that no inference can be drawn reliably and that the failure to report by sample date could lead to serious misrepresentation of the pattern of the epidemic.
“The UK’s data collection and reporting of swab testing is a travesty of statistical science, as you can draw no inferences whatsoever about the evolution of the epidemic,” said Sheila Bird, former programme leader at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health. “Politicians only seem to be interested in the number of tests performed rather than what is actually happening in the epidemic,” she told The BMJ.
The US is getting very excited about opening the country up. They must really be on top of the virus. Nope, Dallas County has a record increase in cases (common reporting in most US local news), and 1/3 of global daily deaths are in the US.
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/05/03/dallas-county-…
Couple of republican states are now looking at how they can force people to go back to work even if they don't feel safe. Including denying them federal unemployment welfare.
The narrative was previously about concern for how many people would be affected negatively by economic impacts of a shutdown. Now it seems more like which people is the more important factor.
which people. yes that is a question that has brought some disquieting sentiments from quite a few contributors here, to the surface in that some elements in society are expendable in the interests of the greater good. Joseph Stalin thought so too. Holodomor to start off. Then WW2, rounding up the local peasants, elderly, mentally afflicted to walk across the German minefields.
CK. Depends on whether your measure of "better" is number of geriatric deaths or unnecessary economic destruction. Depends on where in Time you measure the outcome. Are we at the end now or merely at the end of the beginning?
If Dr Bonning [ Head of A+E NZ and Oz ] was right, then we are only getting started.
And we have only bought ourselves 6 weeks to prepare. Simply put, to save the health service....
Bonning believed as many as 80 per cent of New Zealanders could get the virus, the majority a very mild version, but the key was flattening the curve to reduce pressures on emergency services for more severe cases.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12317275
Also depends how much economic impact you ascribe to domestic lockdown vs. international reduction in trade, tourism etc. My concern is that all of the second will be lumped into the first because it helps support a preexisting stance adopted that "it's just a flu and the medicine is worse than the sickness".
We need good data, not picked cherries.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3082444/coronavirus-chin…
We have been looking at the retreat of globalism since 1995, with an accompanying lift in Government rulings. The trend started with guidance (Keating called it steering the boat rather than rowing it) but it has had to step up several notches very quickly. Unfortunately - as Parker made very clear on Morning Report - Governments are still blinded by the unlimited-planet vernacular peddled by economics in recent decades. Which means, inevitably, that the projects they propose will include remnant globalist ideology.
In other words, they will be for the past, not the future. Buffet seems to smell what is coming - it will be interesting to see what he bets on.
it will be interesting if we join the investigation in china in the handling of the corv 19
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-ou…
"China's domestic tourism rises" - China will prompt domestic tourism from now on, it is not so hard when the government has the absolute control of the narrative. I expect it will be similar to the tertiary education sector. NZ tourism and international education need to be ready for a future that may involve much less Chinese consumers.
And that's the choice New Zealand faces - " government has the absolute control "
It's been hard enough for us to get through 6 weeks of Government control. Imagine what it would be like for us if it was every day for the rest of our lives?
We can make a new future for ourselves as we decide, or have it made for us by a wave of immigration by others.
New Zealand must "use what it already has'" before it embarks on any continued policy of importing new societal ideas. Let's press the pause button; catch our breath and then move forward decisively.
It's all up to us.
Population growth of 2% by immigration is not sustainable. Obviously NZ has plenty of room and food production compared to most developed countries and we could keep it going for a generation (in my opinion to the detriment of the existing population - but others have different opinions) but growth forever is impossible. 2% growth takes 35 years to double our population - add in emigration and society changes dramatically and quickly.
I am afraid much of this reverse globalisation from China shall be unilateral in the short run. They could localise education and tourism within weeks but we as a country don't stand a chance at manufacturing the goods that we currently import from China.
However, such a move from China could significantly weaken household consumption in the West over the longer period, reducing their ability to sell tons of manufactured goods to us.
I love your commentary but the glee that you report anything bad about the US shows your true colors.
All of the stats are great and give early hope of normality returning slowly but it is early days. The US consumer drives the world economy and until they spend again the recession will continue unabated. China will not recover easily from this - especially as it is becoming clear it is from a insecure lab and their numbers are out by a factor of at least 10 on cases and death. Trump is not my pick but viewing him through your NZ Socialist lens is far from accurate. China does not trade fairly with the US and have spent 20 years stealing IP - now it is being stopped.
An entertaining take on it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=rVESJhgko6M&feature=emb…
Pretty hard to come to any other conclusion than it came from that lab, they were (proof from job adverts and journal papers) experimenting on these bat viruses there late last year. Many of earliest cases were not associated with the wet market.
It's not exactly unheard of to have containment breaches at an infectious disease facility. In 2015 the US did a review of 291 labs registered to work with biological agents and toxins and found 12 agents were lost and 199 instances of potential occupational exposure. It's a bit strange how vociferous some commentors are that anyone who is open to the idea this came from a lab must be a conspiracy theory loon.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2016/07/federal-report-disc…
Hardly a loony conspiracy theory when the US Secretary of State is on the headlines of every major news outlet saying this.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/03/mike-pompeo-donald-trump-…
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/05/03/mike-pompeo-coronavi…
Yeah because it's not like the US administration to talk about conspiracy theories as if they are realhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Conspiracy_theories_promoted_by_…
And it's definitely not like Trump to lie when talking about the virus:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/trumps-lies-about-…
It's not a slide away from the point, the character of those making the claims are very important. I am asking you to be sensible and use Occams Razor to decide most likely scenario in the absence of full information.
What we can see from evidence:
Every virus outbreak in recent history has come from mutation of a known virus or a cross species transmission. Every scientific investigation that has looked at the virus has said it bears all the hall marks of cross species transmission.
What we can see from evidence:
The US administration lies through their teeth to accomplish their geo-political goals which has literally led to invasions of countries based on... people making up stories and calling it "intelligence". The current geo-political foe is China. The current administration is particularly adept at lying to drum up support for it's inept leader. You will note that they will claim they have plenty of intelligence (again)... but are not willing to share such intelligence. You will note Pompom says they have "enormous evidence" (which he can't share?) which sounds very much like the Iraq WMD statements of "overwhelming evidence" from Cheney. You will also note Pompom somehow completely agrees with the scientific consensus that it was not man made. The cognitive dissonance is appalling, I don't know how he can live with himself.
Conjecture:
Of course it's possible that it is an engineered virus that escaped from a lab.
Of course it's possible that Obama wasn't born in America and created a fake birth certificate.
Of course it's possible that aliens implanted the virus into hosts while they were anally probing them.
I encourage you think about what is likely. Given that we have had similar viral outbreaks in the last 20 years, during which time there could have been lots of engineered virus outbreaks but none were recorded, it is most likely to be naturally sourced. Any suggestion otherwise needs to be accompanied by very strong evidence, which we do not have and the administration refuses to provide (likely because they are making it up, yet again).
Pompeo did not say the virus was engineered, nor as far as I can tell has anyone here. You do understand that these facilities exist to take viruses found in the wild and study them, right? In fact the BSL4 facility in Wuhan is known to be studying corona viruses, scientists working there have released a number of papers on the subject. Up further I linked a study in the US showing hundreds of staff exposures to biological agents at their facilities, and the loss of agents. It happens frequently enough, to think it couldn't happen in China is absurd.
You've also listed a screed of unrelated events to support your claim that the US lies publicly to manufacture consent. Granted, but the other side of this coin is China who we both know has a list at least as long as the US of similarly dishonest claims. They are now point blank refusing to let anyone investigate where this virus came from, and are threatening sanctions on any country who calls for an investigation. I think that you and anyone else who calls those of us who think we aren't being told the full story "conspiracy theory loons" are naive to say the least.
Maybe read your sources. Pompom said: "Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point"
Wrong Pompom. Experts have stated the exact opposite... and Pompom agrees with them. Cognitive dissonance at it's best.
I aren't saying it's not impossible for this to not have not come out of the lab. But when scientists, independent of the regime you decry, state unequivocally that it came from nature, then you should believe them.
A conspiracy theory is a theory that insinuates there is some powerful coordinated plot, that is not backed by evidence. This is basically exactly what you are saying.
It is no surprise that China does not want it's belligerent foe poking around it's research bases attempting to obtain potentially secret information. Claiming that is some sort of evidence is a stretch. The US is great at manufacturing consent as you acknowledge, or creating a casus belli events (see Vietnam war/Invasion of Panama/Invasion of Iraq etc). The Chinese are smart in denying them access as they could easily do exactly that. And why would they co-operate with the US when there is no evidence? The US's own experts are telling them it's natural - which you don't want to seem to acknowledge either.
If you deny all evidence, then listen to obvious propaganda, expect to be called out for it.
You seem pretty intent on ignoring what I have said and attacking a strawman of your own making, so I'll make this as clear as I can.
I have said it is entirely within the realms of possibility that this virus came from a facility in Wuhan that studies these viruses. I have provided examples from elsewhere in the world where this has happened before.
Whether it is natural or manmade is irrelevant to this discussion, and an argument you seem solely to be having with yourself.
Now you are just making up obtuse arguments to try to make yourself look smart, it isn't working.
You have stated that it can't be a conspiracy theory, because Pompom said it:
by ShoreThing | 4th May 20, 9:53am
Hardly a loony conspiracy theory when the US Secretary of State is on the headlines of every major news outlet saying this.
That's YOUR statement, not some "strawman argument", which you also don't seem to understand. I have shown you that the administration he works for DOES state conspiracy theories as fact. That's literally what you are arguing, that it can't be a conspiracy theory, because he said it. I have also stated that all the experts, including independent ones, state it is natural. How is that an argument I am having with myself?
Edit: And your link above does show containment breaches in the US facilities. How is this relevant to Chinese facilities?
Actually ST it seems probable that the conspiracy that isn’t loony, that is the USA infiltrated the facility in Wuhan and disguised as camera laden, heavily moustached tourists planted certain vials of certain matter in certain places in a certain market holds sway. The proof of that of course is that it follows the style and methods of the Watergate plumbers. Oh but they were extracting not planting! Damn!
I am sure that they did steal IP in the past. Growing up in Birmingham 60 years ago we said the same about the Japanese. Love them or hate them China now produces high quality engineers and scientists and they have begun to win the high technology competition with brains not cheapness. I don't love or hate the Chinese but I respect them; I hate their authoritarian CCP govt and it is only their incompetance that gives the civilised liberal world a chance. Compare GDP per capita for Taiwan and China to see how central planning holds a country back as it becomes developed.
Ah the ol Met Service.
Wrt the Sat/Sun rain two locations I am interested in on Frid evening were going to get well over 100 mm. By Sat morning less than 10mm were forecast. Then the day forecaster rolled back in and had over 50mm coming. Ended up about 20mm.
I gather the coming 5 days have human interpretation, after that it's all computer based but lately it seems that some guy named Bob they met in a pub has taken over.
The most important guy prior to the allied invasion of Europe was the weather forecaster. I think if our guy was in charge we would all be speaking German.
Warren Buffet said this yesterday ......on credit card interest charges ............his last sentence in the clip is a beaut "you wont see Berkshire paying that "
He also just sold out of ALL 4 of the US biggest airlines , huge stakes cost him $7,000,000,000 .00 ( Seven Billion Dollars approx) and sold at a loss.
Given he hold stocks for decades as a strategy, he clearly does not see a recovery in airlines , or tourism anytime soon
I just looked at the salaries of the people running Watercare ................WOW !!!!!!
This is a State run monopoly that is not run in the best interests of us ......... the ratepayers and taxpayers
Frankly , we would be better off selling or listing Watercare or privitising it , its little wonder our water accounts are as high as they are
The Head of Watercare earns $775.000.00 per annum,
How is that even possible , in a monopoly where you cannot opt for another service provider , in an environment where ALL decisions are made by committees , there is ZERO accountability , you cannot get fired and if we lose money it does not matter because you just put up your charges?
FFS they are public servants with no accountability and safe jobs they dont need to be paid anywhere what the private sector is paid.
i started working for a government department and that was the trade off, security of employment and cushy work for less pay. if you wanted to earn better money you moved to the private sector and put your lively hood on the line
We have the highest cost per mug, paid for by Taxpayers in any way they can.
That we cannot pay any more for the mugs is why they are borrowing heaps and heaps of debt. They have to keep the ball rolling and kick it down the path to continue playing their game of Housie Housie. Free money will be grabbed by the balls and squeezed, till Houses pop again. Cos it ain't the poor people getting taxes, it is the Servants we work for, for ever and ever ...Cough up....and get back to work....What is a few million dead, when millions, nay billions, nay Trillions are at Stake. Tis only us oldies, living too long that were the the problem......nothing more certain than Death and Taxes, unless you avoid em as much as a whinging Polly-tician, with their House at Stake. Gotta Kick the can down the road, any way we can....
But that game is getting repetitious......Little interest gets little taxes.....Now whatever next can they plug the hole with........More debt, more of the same...no...Petrol....that will do nicely.......till it won't. Hidden taxes and Benefits paid for by borrowing heavily are our downfall... some cannot carry anymore...........Especially when out of Work............Not that applies to those with fixed incomes, perpetually rising......at the Top of the Scale.
I could explain more, but as usual, it is Coughie Time...Time for a cuppa. No work, no play, makes some Ego's a Couvid19 Layabout.
Old age does not come alone.
But I have to make my own, coffee that is..No Public Servants here......How fortunate is that....Don't mix Business and Pleasure.
Nor will I ever vote one in again. Over Paid, Over here, Overheads. I got over it. Rant over.
This reads like dreamland.
Watercare actually seems to be one of the better performing entities in NZ. And run mostly by engineers rather than bureaucrats.
You want to privatise it in order to have its top executives paid salaries more in line with Spark and Air NZ, you say? Luxon >$4 million. Moutter >$3.5 million. Spierings >$8 million.
What a great idea, to privatise a utility responsible for water and waste water so we can also pay the CEO of that utility more than $3 million a year instead of $775k
I've never had to boil water in Auckland.
As for the stormwater and sewerage, that why they are spending money replacing a ton of end of life infrastructure. same as everywhere else in NZ, out population took off far faster than predicted so everything was undersized.
Historically Auckland and other cities here have a problem with deferred maintenance because while no one seems to worry much about house prices being unaffordable, every time a council election rolls around all the cries are of "no rates increases!!" It's not the engineers who are the ones deciding not to maintain things. Apparently "it's never been cheap to live in a global city" applies only to prices, not infrastructure and rates.
Watercare is at least investing massively in work that should have been done earlier, if not for ratepayers' bleating.
In those two comments we see a grand example of cognitive dissonance.
One notes that someone with more idea of what's going on than many, is predicting the end of growth-based capitalism.
The other laments a civic service, suggesting it 'be privatised'.
Can he no' see the repercussion of the first will require even more of the (civic services in the) second?
At least Watercare produce something Aucklanders need. ATEED?? Also known as Auckland Tourism, Events & Economic Development - is there any sense investing in Tourism and Events today? Other businesses in Tourism and Events (say large restaurants and hotels) have shed staff already - maybe it is harder sacking someone who earns more than our mayor than it is to sack a cleaner, receptionist, waiter being paid to work shifts near the living wage. We sure need Economic Developent but after years of ATEED Auckland has almost uniquely low productivity compared to other large cities in OECD countries.
There were two April factory PMI's out for the US manufacturing sector and both fell sharply. The local ISM one however didn't fall as much as anticipated (-41) whereas the internationally benchmarked Markit one did fall more than expected (-36).
Surviving the short run becomes all that matters on the ground.
In doing so, the lack of money leads to a gross devaluation of all production (which includes services). The systemic worst of all worst cases.
This is the classic monetary deflation of scholarship, more above the “deflation” we often speak about in today’s terms. I’m as guilty as anyone, if not more so, of using the term a little too loosely to fit our current age. Commodity price deflation as a result of Euro$ #3, for example, doesn’t really go far enough.
But it could if the resulting economic contraction and scramble for dollars leaves such overcapacity and desperation for liquidity in the business and financial sectors. Once that happens, past some unknowable threshold, true deflation takes hold and it can only end up in the labor market (as Keynes recognized). Link
Smalltown obviously has never used the NAIT system. If he/she had then they would very quickly realize that NAIT is completely unfit for purpose. It was designed by ear tag manufacturers and a bunch of Wellington trough suckers with very little input from the people who would have to try and use it. For dairy farmers the system will work OK because they move their cattle through the yards most days of the year. Easy to track tags. For a beef farmer this is not the case. Cattle scratch their heads regularly and consequently pull out the EID tag. Their is virtually no way to know which tag number these animals had when it comes to re-tagging. The NAIT database is hopelessly corrupt and will be useless if we ever have a foot and mouth outbreak!
I receive a weekly update from OSPRI shoeing my NAIT status. Each week it shows I have 0 cattle registered when in fact I have 133 registered! What a joke! The only reliable way to track cattle from birth to death is with a micro chip.
I find it hard to believe someone in power hasn't figured this out, must be avoiding loss of face. NAIT doesn't work and nothing they can do will fix it. We just have to go along with the pretence in the meantime which is a major pain, bit like regional council consent to farm.
The Japanese Markit PMI is another one to fall, but while it was notable (-42), it wasn't anything like the very large drops in the US, and is a drop nothing like the GFC (-30).
Folding like a cheap suit isn’t just an American proposition at the start of what is for the entire world going to be the worst quarter since the 1930’s. Nor is it left to just the Europeans to shock anyone at just how bad it was entering this crucial period. Link
Would the NZ ANZ have a similar disproportionate exposure to commercial debt default as its AU parent?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-04/are-australias-big-four-banks-eq…
Just watched the midday Lotto draw, sorry Covid numbers briefing. Can anyone tell me why Dr Bloomfield seems to be running the country? Who elected him. And is just me, or does he seem to floundering a bit, more woolly answers. Quite frankly, I’m sick of him telling me that we’ve been very naughty. Dr Bloomfield, the evidence was there in Early February that people in aged care were the most vulnerable. Why didn’t your ministry protect them? Perhaps your minister was too busy mountain biking/going to the beach/moving house. And I just tried to get a flu jab, you know, the thing You say there’s no shortage of? Was told I couldn’t get one because none were available.
Sorry to reply to myself. But read the Herald story about the judge overruling Bloomfield re visiting his dying father. And the conditions the ministry then imposed on the poor young fellow. What sort of a society have we become? Bloody awful behaviour from the bureaucrats who deign to rule us. Has to stop.
Sort out the paperwork.
1. Places police in a terrible situation.
2. Add to last Thursday, mistakingly passing legislation.
3. We can only guess the validity of roadblocks, with or without gang members.
Emails leaked to the New Zealand Herald from Deputy Commissioner Mike Clement to other top officers share a Crown Law opinion warning police they had little to no power to enforce the lockdown during the first two weeks of it, and officers should be operating as though the country were at level 1.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/415753/police-commissioner-on-enfor…
According to the Companies Office One Roof is owned 80% by NZME and 20% by HouGarden. HouGarden being the largest online property portal in NZ targeting Chinese language speaking.
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