Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the economic stresses of the pandemic are still rising.
The American efforts to "get back to work" are facing all sorts of pushback, not the least from a population increasingly fearful of a coming 'second wave'. The stresses there are immense on all sides.
American inflation is falling away, according to their official April survey. It is down to just +0.3% year-on-year. Diving petrol costs had a lot to do with the overall result (-32%) but food costs rose +3.5%, rents rose +2.6% and medical care costs rose +5.8%, all items that will hurt in a pandemic where job losses are widespread.
US retail activity in the past month was down -1.5% compared with the same April period but -7.5% lower than a year ago. These are lesser falls than a week ago.
Industrial powerhouse Boeing is now very hobbled and the impact is being felt in factories nationwide. They had zero orders for the second time this year in April and customers canceled another 108 orders for its grounded 737 MAX plane, compounding its worst start to a year in almost 60 years.
The official US Government budget statement for April pegs the monthly deficit at -US$738 bln (an all-time one month record) and the deficit for the past twelve months at -US$2.9 tln (also a record). It is on its way to at least a -US$5 tln deficit in 2020 and more than -20% of US GDP. Eye-watering stuff.
In Canada there are reports that commercial landlords only collected 15% of their May rents from tenants.
China also reported its CPI for April overnight. They say inflation there rose +3.3% with food prices up +14% year-on-year, petrol down -7.9%, rents up +0.1%, and medical care costs up +2.2%. Despite these rises however, China now has a serious problem with producer price deflation which it a four year low.
China's stimulus is having some impact. Excavator sales hit the second highest on record in April (+60%) and demand for cement jumped significantly as infrastructure construction picked up.
India has announced a NZ$450 bln pandemic economic relief plan.
In Australia, the latest business confidence report shows these levels were deeply negative in April in a trough twice as deep as their last recession in the 1990s. Conditions fell in all industries except mining and are negative across all states. The employment indicator has never been worse.
China has halted to meat imports from Australia in what is being viewed as more economic coercion over the Aussie government's push for a "Wuhan investigation". That's how Canberra sees it anyway. The meat trade disruption is in addition to the barley trade. Apparently what really sticks in China's commercial craw is the Australian's slapping anti-dumping levies on Chinese steel and aluminium. But how can they be 'dumped' if they are essentially Australian iron ore and bauxite? The Australians want to sell to China at a high price, but don't want to buy the resulting products at a price lower than their domestic feather-bedded industry can tolerate. And then Canberra talks up 'free trade'. You can understand the Chinese exasperation over the double-talk. All very Trumpish.
Internationally, the OECD is saying the leading indicators they track in most major economies collapsed by unprecedented levels in April as pandemic containment measures have a really severe global economic impact on production, consumption and confidence.
All this negative data is just too much for Wall Street. The S&P500 is falling near their close, now down -0.6% after being flat for most of the earlier session. Overnight, European markets were mixed with very small shifts. Yesterday Asian markets were all lower as was the ASX200 (-1.1%). The NZX50 Capital Index managed to stand out with a +0.5% daily rise.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 4,229,100 and up +81,000 from this time yesterday which is similar level of increase.
Now, just over 32% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +19,000 since this time yesterday to 1,356,000. This is also a similar rate of increase. US deaths are now almost 82,000. Global deaths now exceed 290,000. The UK's spot as the second most infected country was brief. Infections are still rising at +4000/day (only hospitalised cases are counted there), but Russian infections are growing virulently now and have easily overtaken the UK (+12,000/day) to be #2.
In Australia, there are now 6964 cases (+16 since yesterday), 97 deaths (unchanged) and an unchanged recovery rate of just under 89%. 47 people are in hospital there (-2) with 16 in ICU (unchanged). There are now 735 active cases in Australia (34).
There are 1497 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with no new cases yesterday, a fall from +3 the prior day. Twenty-one people have died (unchanged). There are still only two people left in hospital with the disease (unchanged), and none are in ICU. Our recovery rate is now just over 93% with 99 people known to be infected (-12) and 76 of those are in 12 active clusters. That means 23 other cases are recovering in self isolation in the community (-5 from yesterday).
The UST 10yr yield is lower to just on 0.68% and a -4 bps retreat. Their 2-10 curve is marginally flatter at +50 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also flatter at +18 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve has followed the trend flatter to +57 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -4 bps to 0.94%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.66%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is only marginally firmer, up just +1 bp to 0.60%.
Gold is marginally firmer today, up +US$4 to US$1,701/oz.
The Kiwi dollar is also a little firmer this morning, up to 60.9 USc. On the cross rates we will also open higher at 93.9 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 56.1 euro cents. These overall rises mean the TWI-5 is now 67.
Bitcoin is higher as well, up a healthy +5.9% to US$8,920. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
240 Comments
Obviously if you want to nail your colours to the mast regarding China, you need to be aware, it is not difficult to smite one’s thumb, whilst at it.
Quite a few people were willing to deal with the Nazis and turn a blind eye to their atrocities simply to enrich themselves, Swiss bankers for example. I believe that we are seeing history repeat itself in the CCP. I know what side of the fence I want to be on.
Watch the farmers disagree with you led by Rewi W postings about not getting involved with Chinese politics thru our trade. Those kiwis whose financial well being are tied to such an evil culture will turn a blind eye even though they realise like the 1930s it will all end with a bang.
Which side is that, may I ask?
Tell me the side of the fence you're on and I'll tell you the atrocities you're complicit in.
Nazi Germany didn't represent 18% of the world economy, yet Nazi Germany didn't have the WMD either. Let's see how this whole saga is to play out.
If we Kowtow to the CCP then we might as well be under their authority also. They want us to be fearful, which is exactly how they keep their population in check. If I had the option of being a bird in a cage or a being a dead bird, I would not choose the cage.
I get you totally. Though this cage is not only built with authoritarianism, but also with capitalism, greed and consumerism. It is not just CCP who has contributed to the building of the cage, western capitalists and corporations were (and still are) a large part of it. There is an appetite from both sides to get this cage stronger and bigger, and then you add PLA's global striking capability into the picture. We are in a complicated situation that we haven't seen it before. That is what I meant.
Appeared to be the moment the Great Generation had gone, the next decided it was time to sell anything and everything to the richest foreigner.
I think the Boomers are deserving of a rebrand on that basis, I think 'Gutless Generation' has a nice ring to it and is a better fit for their legacy.
Note to self. Always go to the boomer salesperson in a shop.
Yeah keep pretending we need you more than you need us.
Okay
Very smart comment.
I cant help feeling a very dangerous game brewing on the global chess board. NZ needs to move very carefully. Otherwise we could end up being the playground for big military. We all know super powers dont like playing in their own backyards.
CNN are reporting that stocks are 4% higher today than this time last year. Clearly anti-gravity is a key part of the American psyche! Boeing's share price is staying stubbornly above $120, although it did fall to about $90 from over $400 (all US $) three weeks ago. Amazing really, no fundamentals to support it bu people are so emotionally tied to the thought of getting rich they can't let go. Worse than drug addicts.
Most of it Fed money.
Speculators waiting to ride the wave of the big fat bailout cheque coming to Boeing.
I wonder if a lot has to do with lack of decent investment prospects at the moment with so much uncertainty. Be interesting to know the share-trading numbers.
If you liquidate and hold cash, QE will devalue. Bond yields already extremely low leave some head room.
Probably down to bid-ask spread being wide... market is locked!
tesla made a loss last quarter, factory is shut because of the state but there share price has recovered to over 800 go figure.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2020/05/12/elon-musk-tesla-ce…
The Fed is buying up everything from junk bonds to air lines. It’s essentially privatising everything it bails out. Wealth transfer, neo feudalism, kleptocracy is what comes to mind. Nothing has changed - Wall St it’s still ponzi scheme.
Have the Fed started direct investment? Crazy times if they have!
They have started buying up bond ETFs. Not the underlying bonds (they are already buying those) but actual ETFs!! Investment grade and high yield (junk). They are bailing out everyone. QE infinity.
But they are in good company. Winston pushed through a 70 million bail out of the racing industry yesterday. Unsurprisingly I can find little anger about it in our quant little media market here. On the front pages of Stuff and the Granny Herald at this time, there is nothing about that bail out at all.
20 million for three new tracks. 50 million to bail out racing industry creditors. As bad as the media is in New Zealand they only received 50 million and I would hazard to guess that your average New Zealander spends more time using Stuff, Interest or the Granny Herald than they do at the races. Yet they received 20 million less?!
And the tourism sector is begging for something and they are being told to wait until the budget. I mean a multi billion dollar industry, one of our largest sources of foreign exchange and employer of tens of thousands of people across the country. Lets give 70 million to the races.
On top of that that our dear leaders are rushing through legislation that will allow the police to enter your house (without a warrant) and bust up your bbq if it has 11 people in it, and arrest and fine whoever they like among you and your guests. No debate. No input from the privacy commissioner. Barely any time for the opposition to view it.
This is the danger with things like lockdown and why we should never have done it. The risk never justified what we have given up. Now we have shifted our Overton window it seems whatever the government deems a "risk" to us (like having a bbq with 11 people) can be come down on with the full weight of the law.
Two quotes come to mind.
"Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely"
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety"
I know a lot of W(h)innie's support comes from the racing industry, but I too am a little mystified by that bailout. The racing industry is a private money making concern that would bounce back real quick once the race courses are opened. besides breeding and training would not be significantly affected by the lockdown. This was a waste IMHO, but then there will be a degree of that in the current circumstances, and hopefully comparatively minor.
Racing's economic footprint (Source: Institute of Economic Research, 2018)
Direct value-added impact on economy: $1.63 billion.
Employment: Equivalent of 14,398 fulltime jobs.
Total industry participants: 58,166.
Export value of racehorses (2018): 138 million
Thanks Doris. Not insignificant then.
Where did you pull this data from exactly I struggle to find anything on their website is their something I am missing?
And while those figures are not insignificant they are dwarfed by tourism. And nothing for that industry still.
Uncertain of how media compares as well.
Back in February when Covid was only just rearing its ugly head, Tourism got an 11 million dollar handout. (Much to the disgust of other industries like forestry and seafood that were worse affected). And with international tourism likely to be affected for years there doesn't seem much point in the government propping up zombie companies - they're going to have to adjust to a new reality.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12327…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/108743998/new-zealand-earns-28…
Doris,
This is plan old pork barrel politics. Winston is buying votes, as he has done before.
Indeed, but if the cash is being splashed (which it is) it might as well go to an established industry that employs a lot of people and has an export component.
The Aussie - China spat, I kinda see both sides. Canberra wants globalisation on it's own terms. 'Trumpish' is correct, they are trying to dictate to China how they can operate in the Aussie market, and protecting Aussie jobs, but at the same time they want to sell to Chinese business's who compete with the Aussie ones because their labour costs are so low. China (taking this one in isolation) are just playing the 'free market' game. Proves some points that I have argued for a few years now.
politics and the market are not seperate in China.
That's a big call. The US doesn't give a damn about politics, but it certainly cares that China has economic clout greater than theirs.
Ozzy is going to loose the war.
Prescient typo
Hope that makes you feel better Ezy.
My spelling maybe crap but I managed to bang three new houses on the market by myself, when the entire NZ govt was struggling with dotting their 'i's and crossing their 't's with Kiwi Build.
I've got people who clean up the mundane details behind me in the real world.
I'm here to educate myself about what's really going on in NZ and globally, not to work on my spelling.
"My spelling maybe crap"
That right there is gold. Someone put it on a tshirt.
I'm currently looking at retraining into a new trade in your area and looking at carpentry, pending a job loss. Still plenty of work on around the place? Hard to figure out what's going to happen in the next 6-12 months. Do you reckon the pre-trade course at Otago Poly is worth while?
Personally I wouldn't do a pre trade but a lot of companies do like them.
Have you thought of electrical. Not so hard on the body, good mark up of materials, a van amd a few tools and you are on the road.
I dont recomend being a builder unless you have along term goal. Mine was to be qualified amd licences and do my own work. To get there you have to do night and weekends for a few years to get ahead so you have the money.
Construction management pays well and not hard on the body as well. Big projects coming so a high chance of work.
Thanks for the reply Kezza. I like working with my hands and never liked dealing with electricity. Can't see it till it bites you :). Long term I'd be happy going out on my own and not afraid of extra work etc. Always like creating something you can see and be proud of afterwards. Had thought about the Civil Engineering as well but it doesn't spin my wheels as much.
Building is a good trade but now very complicated due to regulations.
I completed my quals then worked for a property developer, that was basically my second apprenticeship to learn the ropes. Adding value to houses but it dosent pay well, so I aim for adding value to the existing house, subdividing and adding a new build or two. A much better return.
The first couple are hard with little money and working 24/7. A long term plan to get off the tools is essential, the body takes a hammering.
The looking at what you have done and getting satisfaction from it kind of takes a back seat. You finish and pack up and out of there as fast as possible to put the bill in and start the next job.
Not really much time to sit back and view the job.
Thanks for the honest perspective Kezza. Definitely gives me something to ponder on, especially as a change in career could take more valuable time up if I go down the wrong path.
A lot of people don't ask the questions. You do, it is a very good trait. You'll do well. Research the hell out of everything and dont take no for an answer, find a way arround the issue.
Kezza R, what do you mean by "good mark up of materials"?
As I understand it, electrical mark up on materials from a tradie is good. Buy at X, charge to the customer X plus $$.
May have changed now.
So electricians dishonestly inflate the material cost to overcharge the customer?
Its rife in every industry that can get away with it. Motor mechanics especially. There is a valid reason for some small markup to cover cost of non-payments by customers, cock-ups and waste, time spent sourcing and picking up materials etc.
Tell me your profession doesn't do it?
Best way to avoid paying for nothing is to do everything yourself.
They have trade discounts. All trades do it.
I give clients my trade prices but add a few $'s to my hourly.
The client gets a discount on materials and I don't have to go through and add a percentage. I just feel it is more honest and the clients know I'm not screwing them over.
You can always price your own materials if you know what to buy, have the time and a good trade discount - can be a six of one and half dozen of another exercise though (your trade price vs tradesman trade price + margin)
Not just electricians, all tradesmen do it. The markup is often significant as well.
I didn't read that comment as criticism of your spelling. Rather they were noting the accidental typo and feeling that it was accurate- ozzy was going to let the war loose. prescient ie predicting the future.
You sure about that Kezza? The developments come at a time when China remains desperately short of meat protein in general, as a result of the impacts of African Swine Fever. ASF has decimated the domestic Chinese pig population, leaving a protein deficit estimated by analysts at up to 15-20 million tonnes over the next 3-5 years.
https://www.beefcentral.com/news/china-suspends-four-australian-beef-pl…
Ozzy needs China more than vice versa.
Especially coming out of this.
How long can the Chinese go without a bit of meat V how long can an Ozzy go without his shrimp on the BBQ and plenty of beers. Disrupt an Ozzies rights and they get angry very fast.
Yeah, the Australian economy - and especially tax receipts - are very dependent on iron ore exports to China. Losing those would be like losing dairy for NZ, or worse.
Worse!
NZ is small and adaptable as we have shown several times. Ozzy not so much and if things arent going the populations way they change PM and Govt fast.
Kiwis will suck it up and get on with going without. Try that in Ozzy.
Whats your problem with Australia? You're always putting the boot in.
He (she?) seems to have a real issue with countries spelt with first and last letter "A".
Afghanistan Akrotiri Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Anguilla Antarctica Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Ashmore and Cartier Islands Australia Austria Azerbaijan.
Yeah mate.
LOL , Albania , Angola , Argentina , Armenia , Algeria ..........even I have a problem with these well run functioning uncorrupt democracies , well known for excellent human rights policies , rule of law , and caring for their people's wellbeing
Nothing wrong with Oz. Just calling it how I see it from a business point of view.
I dont see Ozzy coming out of this well, when they are fighting with a bear the size of China.
I like ice cream but I wouldn't buy into an ice cream parlor in winter.... unless it was priced accordingly.
But last week "Ozzy" was going to be stuffed from a second wave? Now its something else apparently. It sounds like you're working your way backwards from a desired outcome.
p.s - why would you buy an ice cream palor if you like ice cream? Just go and buy an effing cone mate! Poor example.
I fully expect a second wave in Oz once winter hits. I very much doubt they have this under control.
To open the boarder with Oz they need to be CV19 free and as per a lot of countries they paint a rosey painting of being under control when they are not.
You may have a soft spot for Oz, I don't.
More people per capita have died in NZ?!?
Its xenophobic prejudice, lets call it out for what it is. The sad thing is you can tell what age group you fall into with this BS.
They arent the most honest bunch to deal with either.
How long will the Chinese population stay obedient and contented in the face of food shortages? Not long, I'd predict.
Longer than Ozzies. The Chinese are risking their lives by standing up to the man.
The Australian anti-dumping measures reflect issues going back 12 years, and dealing with 5 or 6 countries. If China really had a problem with this issue they would go to WTO.
With China, producers have been receiving china government incentives and subsidies to aid export production.
Other issues in Australia have been the quality and mis-selling of specification, fire safe, of China products used the high rise developments.
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=7073cca2-f9c5-4976-b236-…
In breaking news Australian dairy exporters anticipate being hit by China retaliation to China virus, Taiwan WHO help.
Barley,
Beef.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fears-of-a-third-strike-china-t…
Imagine one china, with the Taiwan way being how the joint was run.
FYI there is only 78 active cases in NZ not 99. Interesting to see NZ clearly overtake Australia in recoveries and hospital recoveries in proportion to population.
Cheers
Phil
Yes 78. Illustrating the complication used by the Health Ministry, who really don't want you to work that out. They want to headline the 1500 number. Leave you to work out why.
When they can con David Chaston with numbers, you can see how deceptive those characters are.
Here is an example of more meaningful & transparent data.
Extensive minutes of Monday's Australian Health Protection Principal Committee meeting also show...
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/experts-call-for-urgent-researc…
Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.
Oh, they "really don't want you to work that out"? That's why they provide that number on their website I suppose, because they don't want people to know it: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-no…
It's not in the headline table and it should be - but can be easily calculated from it. The map of NZ showing all the cases around NZ shows the total active at 78.
Funny how they "really" don't want you to know it, but publish it and the data required to calculate it freely and clearly.
Yes and no Lanthanide. You can find it, but with difficulty, but they don't headline it. Confusing. There is a lot of manipulation is this saga, and this is an example.
Difficulty? A matter of simple arithmatic.
Yes, they should publish it as headline data. But it's not difficult to work it out, and they do in fact publish them number themselves on their own website.
This hardly amounts to them "really [not] want[ing] you to work [...] out" that number, as you claimed.
This is clearly a case of incompetence, not malice.
Australia and NZ are sealing themselves in a bubble that the rest of the world are outside of. The rest of the world will become immune over time. Sweden will be effectively cured soon. We will remain in the bubble like the immuno-suppressed, unable to leave the bubble or let anyone else in. We are seeming quite smug at the moment but are we really doing the best thing in the long run?
" The rest of the world will become immune over time" - can you back that up with any science? Otherwise just a ramble like trump talking down to a Asian american reporter.
Immunity looks most likely at this stage
( temporary ) immunity does look likely at this stage , although not certain . It is entirely unclear how long it lasts.
What is at least equally relevant is that most studies show clearly that no country had anywhere near the number of cases herd immunity needs ; that includes Sweden.
Frazz, what is the bit that has you upset?
https://youtu.be/nqIwmpehub8
Sky news.
Not upset at all and my rule is to never click on any of your links..youtube
Bet you do.
Because they are so good.
Yer nah - and also still think you might be a robot?
Yes it's those dodgy links Henry bot keeps posting. If they were genuine YouTube links they would be https://www.youtube.com/watch.... Not the Trump supporter propaganda ones its been posting. Look at the web address before clicking on dodgy links.
It's a good question to pose. On an assumption of herd immunity in place from a vaccine within 2 years from now I reckon the Aus/NZ approach is, on balance, the preferred approach. Why you ask? I prefer to be above ground rather than under it.
What if a vaccine never comes?
what if immunity is only short term like most coronaviruses?
Then the old and the sick are in a lot of trouble if we open up. However, from history the Spanish flu died off because people got immune or died. If we could keep those who would have died isolated and let those who would likely recover become immune (even if temporarily) it will likely be long enough to rid the world of this evil virus.
The person, If herd immunity doesn't work, why would you assume we would find a lasting vaccine? If herd immunity won't work, because of mutability of the virus then surely a vaccine will run into the same problem. Like the flu vaccine. Or the non-existent AIDS vaccine.
If immunity is shortlived, you just need repeat vaccines at appropriate intervals. Allot of travel vaccines are already like this, you need one e.g. every ten years Assuming a vaccine is ever developed
What if it mutates into something less deadly. Not uncommon for epidemics. What if medics evolve better treatments - highly probable.
What gives you that level of confidence of a vaccine being discovered?
Wouldn't the chance of a vaccine find be closer to 50:50?
Before you talk about Sweden and it’s “success” in herd immunity... the UK tried the same thing and look what happened.
Further, if NZ had gone the Sweden way, our hospitals would have been overwhelmed. If you think that wouldn’t have happened, see how we coped after the White Island disaster.
Civilised societies are supposed to look after the weak and vulnerable, not drag them out die, at the expedience of greed.
Urm. The UK didn't try herd immunity it's been in lockdown for many weeks. And it's death rate per million is a lot higher than Swedens.
They did and it was catastrophic. That’s why they are in lockdown now...
The rest is exactly the point I am making...
Even if we had followed Sweden’s example, we’d have over 1500 dead people and an overwhelmed hospital system. Some people seem to think it’s okay for the weak and vulnerable to die for the “greater good.”
And therein lies the danger. You cannot compare this situation to the life and death decisions made daily in hospitals by family and clinicians. To do so is to demean the heartbreak that those concerned have to bear. But those are not a selection being taken from broad society anymore than what is decreed at government level as to who may or may not benefit from availability of particular drugs. To extend such rationale to a segment of society who are perfectly normal but say aged, is highly immoral. If they are expendable for the greater good what then comes next in that selection criteria. The mentally infirm because they don’t know what’s going on anyway. And for those in charge of such decisions towards what is seen as being disposable for the good of a better society economically, perhaps this or that religion or person(s) of certain colour. Mind you Adolf was all for it though.
We can't have 100% confidence there will be a vaccine and we can't be 100% confident of enduring immunity either. We aren't even confident of what the virus even does to the body! This is the reason we all have to keep reminding you of the dangers of underestimating a NOVEL VIRUS. When we know more, with a bit more time, we will be able to make much better, much more informed decisions and risk assessments. It's not complicated. You seem to insist that world governments should have taken the very most reckless approach to a health crisis. There is no consensus within the scientific community so the sensible and safe path at the beginning was a conservative approach, not a reckless one. As we know more, we can experiment if needs be.
We don't necessarily need an 'enduring' vaccine, like the measles one. After all we have annual flu vaccinations.
A big part of the problem with COVID-19 is people don't seem to have any pre-existing immunity to it at all, and the virus is obviously new and novel. If we have to go with a series of annual vaccines, that's what'll happen, and it is likely the virus will mutate into a less deadly version over time due to selection pressures.
I think you misread me, I said either a vaccine or enduring immunity.
The vaccine just needs to work and for us to make it work as you say. And yes, there is selection pressure on viruses to become less lethal, but its way more complicated than that. It could take decades. It could happen in a few months. It's not something anyone should build a strategy on without solid data.
Are you over 70 with a pre-existing health condition?
For most of population risk of death if infected by wuflu is about 1/3rd of your normal annual risk of death.
Where do you get that from?
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104952/gareth-vaughan-impact-pandemi…
Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.
What are his comments based on? How does he know "that many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems". Where is his data?
Hundreds of thousands of people who will need renal dialysis?? What is he basing that on? More models of the future?
This guy provides no data he is not actually doing any research so why would I care what he thinks any more than Jacinda?
This is an anecdote not something you should base a decision affecting millions of people on.
Ohh the poor politicians and scientists receiving criticism. Criticism is the basis of science and a robust democracy. Make your hypothesis and then try and poke as many holes in it as you can. If it doesn't leak it might be right. Scientists should welcome criticism it makes their work better.
He seems to have a little bit of prior knowledge of viruses...I don't think he is making these comments from his lounge chair..
"..There's an interesting take on getting COVID-19 here from virologist Peter Piot. He's director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. He got COVID-19 in mid-March, spent a week in hospital, and has been recovering at home in London since. Piot, 71, was one of the discoverers of the Ebola virus in 1976, headed up the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS between 1995 and 2008, and is currently a coronavirus adviser to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
I think you rolled out some entirely erroneous calculations of this nature before ( and gracefully admitted it ) .
What is this latest statement based on ?
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104952/gareth-vaughan-impact-pandemi…
3) ‘Finally, a virus got me.'
There's an interesting take on getting COVID-19 here from virologist Peter Piot. He's director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. He got COVID-19 in mid-March, spent a week in hospital, and has been recovering at home in London since. Piot, 71, was one of the discoverers of the Ebola virus in 1976, headed up the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS between 1995 and 2008, and is currently a coronavirus adviser to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
I was concerned I would be put on a ventilator immediately because I had seen publications showing it increases your chance of dying. I was pretty scared, but fortunately, they just gave me an oxygen mask first and that turned out to work. So, I ended up in an isolation room in the antechamber of the intensive care department. You’re tired, so you’re resigned to your fate. You completely surrender to the nursing staff. You live in a routine from syringe to infusion and you hope you make it. I am usually quite proactive in the way I operate, but here I was 100% patient.
I shared a room with a homeless person, a Colombian cleaner, and a man from Bangladesh—all three diabetics, incidentally, which is consistent with the known picture of the disease. The days and nights were lonely because no one had the energy to talk. I could only whisper for weeks; even now, my voice loses power in the evening. But I always had that question going around in my head: How will I be when I get out of this?
Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.
tks vman, valuable comment. folk take note. this recounts the big picture, the first hand experience. not the little picture of an expert on the couch.
It's not really a comment he just cut and paste from another article.
How does an anecdote from one person who has been sick, among tens of millions recount the big picture?
Seeing as you like cut and pastes here is something from the same article:
"Writing for Project Syndicate, Arvind Subramanian sees three watershed events coming out of the COVID-19 crisis. These are the end of Europe’s integration project, the end of a united, functional America, and the end of the implicit social compact between the Chinese state and its citizens. This means all three major powers will emerge from the pandemic internally weakened, undermining their ability to provide global leadership."
This instability is not from covid, it is from the over reaction to covid.
We have quite possibly locked ourselves into a depression. The last depression led to World War two and the almost complete annihilation of the Jewish people. We can already see a clear rising in tensions with China and numerous countries not just the US, at various levels. And it's not like China has shown itself to be very reasonable and happy to step back from the brink.
Calm down buddy..I put the link in,not claiming its a comment from me...
And I'm not sure why you are giving any weight to Mr Submarine...where's his 'data'
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/project-syndicate/
"These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias. They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or stereotypes) to favor liberal causes. These sources are generally trustworthy for information, but may require further investigation. See all Left-Center sources.
FB, you don't want to catch this sucker. I really believe it will leave a lasting legacy in your body of compromised lungs, liver, kidney any or all of these. I have a lasting, very annoying dry cough from a cold I caught two years ago, and that is bad enough, although I work to keep fit. This COVID I think is much nastier, and this opinion was also expressed by an expert cited in a comment stream yesterday. What we really need is a vaccine.
Ever wonder why the countries with the virus are opening up? Its because they suspect that a vaccine may never be found. They have accepted reality. There has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine before.... ever!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-cor…
Yet back in the real world it's because of the immense economic pressures they are facing in order to maintain the lockdown
Herd immunity was the preferred option for several governments from the start but it was too harsh for the populous and therefore the governments had to change tact and appear more caring. They are now using the economy as an excuse to get what they knew they had to do from the start.
There is nothing to stop NZ pivoting to herd immunity approach later if it's proven to work overseas.
Exactly refactornz. But no popping the cork back in the bottle the other way arround.
Better to go through heard immunity when there are more research, ventilators, staff, beds than flying blind.
Well said refactornz.
How come we need to keep going over this again and again... Its just commonsense
Jacinda would not be capable of doing it.
She's has done more than anyone thought she could do.
That is three massive steps from where I thought she could ever get.
It does not necessarily have to be Jacinda . The option would be available to any future govt.
The world knows bugger all about this virus - but is learning fast.
NZ has the "luxury" option of playing for time ; it makes sense to do that.
Trump is certainly making a real hash of managing the coronavirus out break in the US. As far as he's concerned the US citizens are just virus canon fodder, all he cares about is the stock market. "Dr Anthony Fauci said if federal guidelines to reopen are not followed, "little spikes" will become outbreaks. He also said the real US death toll is probably higher than the official figure of 80,000."
At the rate Trump has botched things up, there will be around 200,000 US citizens dead by the November election.
That is if they stay in LD but they can't due to the economy.
So they will increase massively in infections and deaths and that will in time for winter that will esulate the situation. That 200,000 deaths could easily be 500,000 by the end of the year.
Only 1.4 million so far, looking like it'll work it's way to 100 million.
Yep agreed, there was ample opportunity for Trump to take control of the situation and look the states down fully, and not leaving lots of overseas flight risks. If you want to see what happened early on, the BBC have captured this snap shot really well showing how the various US states reacted.
BBC Coronavirus: The lost six weeks when US failed to contain outbreak. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-52622037/coronavirus-the-lo…
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104952/gareth-vaughan-impact-pandemi…
Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.
Foreign Buyer
To my mind this is a legitimate question but we don't have quite enough data to make a strong assertion either way yet.
I am waiting to see what happens with the EU/UK numbers as they withdraw restrictions. The Swedish/Oxford/Stanford model would suggest that there is substantial herd immunity already, in which case, as restrictions are reversed the R0, infection numbers and deaths should not massively escalate and the pandemic will be over in many places soon.
*If there is an effective vaccine or treatment very soon, then an elimination strategy (NZ/Oz) is going to win out, both on a health and economic metric IMO.
*If there is no vaccine/treatment soon then I don't think it's feasible to maintain restrictions for long periods of time. Economies will collapse, civil unrest will grow, food production could be threatened. In which case, the next best solution is, what I have always suggested would be the most likely strategy. I.E. countries alleviate restrictions to the extent that the infection numbers meet their healthcare capacity. IMO this is clearly what Germany is doing. Mitigate the impact of the virus with the best treatment available, but still keep letting infection rates build up but not overwhelm healthcare systems but impose restrictions again if they start reaching the capacity threshold
*if there is no vaccine/treatment forthcoming then NZ/OZ have indeed created a virus immunity-free bubble and then they will probably have to follow the EU strategy eventually anyway. China are not following the herd immunity strategy as far as we know, so that's a biggie too.
If we are very lucky, Imperial is wrong, and the pandemic will be over soon. NZ/OZ with a less inflicted population will be able to start economic recovery first. Bonus.
If Imperial is correct (and we will know soon, as loosened restrictions predict a higher R0 and increased infection rates again, whereas the Swedish model thinks we have peaked already) then NZ/OZ has to face the other two scenarios. I.E. careful building of herd immunity and shielding as best we can. Herd immunity acknowledges a higher death toll from the virus because long term lockdowns (12-24 months) are just not realistic or even possible IMO. Or vaccine.
Potentially there will be huge psycho-social and political ramifications to any and all of these scenarios. We are already seeing that everywhere. And whilst we can all have our opinion on that, no one on the planet can predict how that all that unfolds yet. We don't even have enough data on the virus yet, let alone the social and economic ramifications.
For the record though, IMO, the initial lockdown where a country does not have sufficient testing and treatment capacity was always the right decision. Once you have ramped up capacity though, then for most countries, its a decision on mitigation vs waiting for a vaccine. And seeing as the vaccine is going to be a long time coming, if its even possible, then it makes sense that a country like Germany is experimenting with mitigation. It does not make sense for the UK however, as they are an omnishambles and a human tragedy could be unfolding.
Good comments Ginger Ninja. A "tight rope walking" approach where we let it go as far as the health system can handle seems the most reasonable approach. I still believe there might be value in locking down the elderly and sick to protect them (providing masks and free grocery delivery and so on). However they should be given the option and not have it forced upon them. Their life, their risk.
It is hard to see how Imperial College will not be wrong. Their initial paper was garbage, and Neil Ferguson has made so many wildly wrong predictions about mass pandemic deaths in the last 15 years, it is difficult to see why anyone puts any faith in him at all.
And I still believe the incentives behind his reporting are wrong. If he blows things up it brings attention to his profession and increased funding and better students. If he gets it wrong, he goes back to work as normal until the next opportunity comes for him to make more of his field than it is capable of. He doesn't even lose his job or his bonus. This is moral hazard exactly as it exists in the banking system. It encourages ever more outrageous and ever more risky (for the rest of us who have to live with the consequences) actions.
Modelling is inherently, badly flawed. It is impossible to predict the future. Sure you can make a good guess for a few days into the future, but after that.....the world is just way, way to complex to model accurately. I keep saying it but look at weather models. Far more money spent, far more sophisticated, far larger data sets, yet how much faith can you put in a weather prediction one week from today? Why do we believe somehow epidemiological models are more accurate? Chaos theory trumps Neil Fergusson every time.
I do not share your opinion about lockdown. I believe we have led ourselves down a bad path based on hubristic scientists who believe in their reductionist hype. The idea that if you break things down enough you will eventually understand everything. It does not matter how often that is shown to be false....they keep doing it and people like Jacinda Ardern just lap it up no question. Even now we have little evidence to support lockdown. I can't see the predicted inflection points (where lockdown began) in cases or deaths, in any country. I would be happy for someone to show me them if they are there, I have been looking for them.
Perhaps lockdown worked here. But perhaps we just stopped the source of new infection by closing our borders. Perhaps it was both.
I should add the scientific method is great and has led to huge advances. I do not say we should not use science. But modelling is not science. It is guessing and assumption extrapolated into the future. But people really are not aware of it's limits, they somehow believe scientists and their modeling are different to normal people, more rational. That is not the case. They suffer the same pressures, biases and weaknesses that we all do. People who smugly say we will follow the science need to stop using that as a cop out for critical thinking.
All models are reliant on their data, until they have sufficient data they are prone to wild inaccuracies. I'm not a statistician, however, the predictions based on the two models are pretty explicit and there will be evidence enough to assess their efficacy very soon. If Imperial is right, when restrictions are lifted the R0 will go above 1 again. If Sweden/Oxford is right the R0 will continue to decline. This assessment does a great job of presenting the two;
Orthodox/Imperial View
• Infection fatality rate is around 0.6-1%
across regions (depending on
demographics).
• The number of people infected at the
time of lockdowns was modest and is
currently around 5% in the UK.
• Lockdowns have reduced the rate of
transmission. If lockdowns were released
the R would rise above 1 again.
Oxford/Swedish/Stanford view
• Infection fatality rate is not materially
higher than severe flu and may be
lower. (IFR ≈ 0.1%)
• The spike in deaths is driven by the
speed of transmission of the virus not
a high IFR.
• By the point of lockdown, large
numbers had already been infected
and herd immunity has either been
achieved or is near.
• If lockdowns were released, R would
continue to fall since the number not
yet infected is low
https://nafdcovid19.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/COVID-19-Future-P…
What proponents of herd immunity fail to mention is the increased risk of further mutations. The Spanish Flu showed just how dangerous mutations can be, with subsequent waves being more dangerous than the initial wave. The more people you let get infected the higher the chance that mutations could occur - those mutations could be more or less dangerous, but also run the risk of bypassing any immunity built up in the population.
Miguel, yes, second waves can be more deadly, but the mitigation plan would be to pull everyone back into lockdown if the R0 got above a certain agreed number, so the virus wouldn't be given free reign like the second wave of the Spanish Flu.
I am in no way in favour of "herd immunity" unless the evidence guides us in that direction and I am very much against taking risks with a novel virus, which I have stated many times. My stance has always been for maximum caution while we wait for more data and built testing/treatment capacity. If the data comes in to show mutation lethality (and some data has come into suggest that actually but we need more) then herd immunity might be a too dangerous strategy for now. However, if there is no viable vaccine or treatment then herd immunity with mitigation, is the only strategy left because we can't stay in lockdown forever, society would fall apart. Lockdown can only ever be a temporary measure. It can be a repeated as a temporary measure but society does not function in a 12-24 month lockdown.
That applies equally to a vaccine. If mutability is a big problem it will make a vaccine difficult as well.
This is not the Spanish Flu or anywhere near it. That was a global pandemic that might have justified lockdown. In todays numbers covid would need to kill 200 million people to be equivalent to the Spanish flu. It's no where near that.
You are missing my point. I’m not saying the two viruses are comparable, simply that global pandemics give rise to a high chances of mutations due to the spread.
Mutations can obviously impact a vaccines effectiveness. My point was simply that attempting a herd immunity strategy increases the chances of mutations. Pursuing a strategy of containment reduces the chances of mutations
I'm not sure why you believe Sweden will be "effectively cured" soon. They are no where near "herd immunity", when less than 1% of people have confirmed as having contracted covid. The have relatively high number of deaths per capita, and have a fairly high case fatality rate. They are still having sizable number of new cases being found, despite social distancing restrictions.
I don't understand why you believe they have somehow "effectively cured" covid.
They may have already got herd immunity. Herd immunity is generally calculated from the R0 and the problem with R0 is we don't know how prevalent covid is in the population.
You say that less than 1% have confirmed as having covid. It does not matter how many have been confirmed it only matters how many have actually had it.
There are numerous studies showing that it is far wider spread than we thought. Even without those common sense shows that it would be. It is highly infectious, has a high asymptomatic rate and presents in a similar matter to many other respiratory diseases.
Possibly 10 times reported, possibly 50 times possibly even more than that.
I would not put much faith in social distancing. Social distancing is only useful if it is observed by everyone all the time. Humans on average simply aren't capable of that. Stupidity, ignorance, too busy on their phones, off in their own world dealing with whatever problem they had this morning and not looking where they are going.....there are any number of reasons why social distancing would be constantly breached.
Hand washing shows good efficacy, which is unsurprising as it is drummed into us as children. For many people it is natural. Social distancing is not the same.
Even if the numbers are 10 x higher than confirmed cases in sweden that would mean only 2.5% of the population hasn’t been exposed.
Herd immunity needs something like 60%+
How do you believe they are already at herd immunity levels?
Neither of the studies I have seen suggesting that large scale infection had taken place, were credible. What studies are you quoting?
warning warning Will Robinson
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chamath-palihapitiya-fed-stimulus-ris…
@ andrewj its a good link
RE STOCK MARKET RALLIES .......... the issue is simple , if you want to make a bonfire bigger , add more fuel
If you want a really BIG bonfire add accelerant , and that's what the Fed has done
This will not end well for the stock markets
RE THE DEFLATION PREDICTION ....................of course doing what the Fed has done is going to be deflationary , all the money printing has done is boost asset prices , as food handout queues get longer and longer , it has not done a jot for the spending ability of the ordinary person in the street .
Mr and Mrs Middle -Class ' spending power is still under stress , and they are going to delay spending decisions , and if lots do that , prices will fall leading to deflation
What do we think about this Covid Bill being rushed through without due process ? Anyone care ?
Homer the foundation stone of democracy was laid in the age and domicile of your moniker. Since then it has steadily been eroded to now mean little more than politicians and their mates.
I hear the Nats aren't supporting it on mainly two grounds (1) unfairness around funeral attendance limitations vs sport/cinemas etc (2) powers given to Police and Minister of Health to search, cease etc for two years!
Point (1) I can sort of see the Govt point, as people will have strong tendency to comfort each other with hugs/kisses/hongi's etc. But this doesn't stackup with contact sport in particular...apart from fact that most sports people are young and fit.
Point (2) seems OTT on the face of it. Especially given Police lack of desire to enforce law around road-blocks around NZ recently - pick and choose who and when to enforce the law!
most sports people are young and fit. true enough. but that don’t stop them from being carriers to those that are not young and fit.
Interesting point. I'd like to see analysis on transmission by age and health profiles. I read one jurno stating there is little if any evidence that young children spread Covid amongst themselves or adults....
That article is not about young adults, is about children. preschoolers and primary schools.
Marist cluster? Dunedin school spread? Seems to be pretty magical thinking to imagine that kids won't spread it, they catch it just the same as everyone else, they just don't develop the extreme symptoms that lead to death. And they are totally oblivious to avoiding behaviours that will cause infection.
There was no spread in the Logan Park (Dunedin) infection.
I guess part of the reason for the 10 person funeral cap is that people tend to gather from different parts of the country to attend them, potentially creating a situation similar to the Bluff wedding cluster.
when you go to the cinema, you are not interacting with the 100 people there, only those you sit next to. And with level 2 restrictions you won't be sitting next to anyone. So if you go to the cinema, there might be 100 people in the room but there are zero close contacts. A wedding or funeral with 100 people, as we have seen from Bluff, probably half the people will catch it.
"when you go to the cinema, you are not interacting with the 100 people there"
Laughing my arse off here.....so you can hold your breath for a few hours then???!!!
Act in haste, repent at leisure. Seems there are a lot of issues with the way it has been composed - evidencing a rushed job where not everything has been thought through carefully, a pity given the 6 weeks of lockdown that they have had to prepare it. It will need to be changed substantially in a later update if passed as is.
Yes, lets stall this bill to hell and back with endless committee hearings and the like, we've got a ton of time .
FFS, the "muh freedumbs" crowd at it again.
For the last few weeks while Parliament has been suspended, the Govt has chosen not to provide documents and advice requested by the Covid Response Committee, which was effectively the only branch of oversight the country had, only to do a cynical Friday data dump and then refuse to make ministers available for comment. Instead, you're whipping the opposition for being bad faith actors for pointing out the illogical and overreaching part of the rushed legislation?
Haha yeah, our most basic human rights are dumb! Get a load of this guy.
Stockholm Syndrome on display.
So, ACT voted for the bill. And National's only desired change so far that I've seen is increasing the gathering limit from 10 to 100.
I'm not sure this is actually the "reds under the bed" / "Nazis are coming" alternating future my rabid right-wing facebook friends (and Judith Iscariot) think it is...
Everyone is always worried about the "far right" but its the far left that are becoming increasingly powerful..
No, our rights are fine, its the Fox news/breitbart crowd that are off their rockers.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/416483/police-trialled-facial-recog…
Sir, Im sorry but I need you to hand over your bill of rights..
This is actually something legitimately concerning. Even since before John Key's "if you've got nothing to hide you've got nothing to fear" surveillance mantra that the right seemed pretty quiet and complacent toward, we've faced ongoing erosion of our privacy. There seem to be almost zero politicians who display enough genuine interest in citizens' privacy to protect it.
You know why? Because the majority of Kiwis don't value their privacy and their attitude to mass surveillance is astounding. If I had a dollar for everytime I heard "Well I don't care I've got nothing to hide", I'd have enough to buy a politician.
We are in a State of Emergency, what can folk do, its like the activists, activist methods, are already in the parliament.
The government had the chance in the house to pause for breath, reflect, consider, but no dice.
Is it bigger than passing legislation with without realising- Thursday week ago.
Is it bigger than rejecting MoH advice to temporarily close the border - MoH wanting 2 weeks to establish a quaratine process.
It doesn't answer the question over legality of Alert 4 lockdown police powers.
Feet to the fire, what would PM do? Like Fridays gagging email, say, it's not my language, I didn't write it. I only saw it after I explained it.
Or like with DG show, say unless you are a constitutional lawyer you are not entitled to ask me any questions.
Or, like the easter bunny essential worker q&a I will answer reporter questions that my press secretary provided the reporter with.
Here is an example of how communications are run.
https://youtu.be/MW_Jm80HK74
Layleigh McEnany.
Very caring. " A Christchurch man is pleading for government officials to exempt him from quarantine so that he can see his dying wife one last time.
He is currently under managed isolation at a hotel in Auckland, and said despite showing no illness symptoms and a letter of support from his GP, the Ministry of Health has repeatedly refused his request for exemption."
Further and better particulars required ... A Christchurch man is in quarantine in an Auckland hotel ... presumably because he has flown in from overseas ... yet his wife was dying in a hospital in Christchurch ... what was he doing overseas ... how did he get back if there are no commercial flight available ... where did he come from ... when did he leave? ... what date? ... is he a citizen? ... what nationality is he?
If we learned one thing from the movie 28 Weeks later it was that you don't let husbands visit wives in hospital during a pandemic.
I am livid Homer!
We now have a state where if you are having a bbq with 11 people in your own home, the police can enter, without a warrant, and bust your bbq up with powers to arrest and or fine you or anyone at the party.
For our own safety!!
This is how police states always start. Its not like the Nazis came into power and the next day the Gestapo was knocking on peoples doors and blokwarts were on every corner. These things happen by degrees and there is always a nice friendly message of propaganda behind it.
But we surrendered our rights meekly when we went into lockdown, because we were willing to throw any liberty away to be safe from the dreaded virus, although it is fair to say that the danger of the virus is definitely debatable.
So I'm sure we will happily put this through.
We can be sure that Winston will allow us to go out and spend money at the new racetracks he is building for his friends in the racing industry at least.
"But how can they be 'dumped' if they are essentially Australian iron ore and bauxite?"
Isn't it obvious that they can be dumped if the production costs in China and the shipping are subsidized in order to drive out of business any Oz production?
Yes, on the face of it a very dubious statement from DC. They've got form although in the end we turned a National Party instructed "Blind Eye".
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
????
"As we prepared for the pandemic, we radically transformed our hospital operations to create a safe environment for patients and staff, we delayed non-urgent surgery, reducing it by 70%, and we scaled up telemedicine 38-fold, performing 250,000 visits in April.
We indeed saw a steady stream of patients but never “surged.” At peak in mid-April, COVID-19 patients occupied 2% of our 5,500 hospital beds and 48 of our 750 ventilators. Subsequently, admissions have been decreasing with very few patients now coming from the community, almost all now being from nursing homes. Of note, in the 36 UPMC-owned senior facilities we have had zero positive cases.
Our outcomes are similar to the state of Pennsylvania, where the median age of death from COVID-19 is 84 years old. The few younger patients who died all had significant preexisting conditions. Very few children were infected and none died. Minorities in our communities fared equally as well as others, but we know that this is not the case nationally. In sum, this is a disease of the elderly, sick and poor."
https://inside.upmc.com/shapiro-economy-roundtable/
Gov. Cuomo admits he was wrong to order nursing homes to accept coronavirus patients
https://nypost.com/2020/05/10/cuomo-was-wrong-to-order-nursing-homes-to…
We were fortunate that Aged Care facilities here, went into lockdown, then told MoH what they did and what should be done.
Aye, Radius, Rymans, Summerset & probably some others too, acted independently, early on their own initiative and locked down. But that was contrary to the advice from MOH at that time. All rest homes should have been locked down, at the very latest, when the 14 day self isolation criteria was implemented. That likely would have reduced NZ’s clusters and cases, and undoubtedly deaths more than significantly.
Yup - 100% hindsight is a wonderful thing. Very unproductive, though.
Corroborated: our own now-deceased (pre-lockdown, no WuHuFlu involved) mother-in-law was in a Ryman home and we could not see her (having recently travelled through Tasmania for a few weeks) prior to her death. A decision with which we thoroughly agreed, having seen the appallingly lax way in which TAS handled the first few cases.....Absolutely no hindsight here: Ryman and the others saw, acted, and we approve 110%. Pity the MoH took weeks to catch up....especially re those vulnerable rest homes......
Yep no hindsight and no foresight either. If on one hand you conclude that it is necessary to impress on the community at large that the elderly and vulnerable need to virtually self isolate and do it fast, which was obviously prudent, then why at the same time do you leave the rest homes, full of those very same people open. And the three examples my earlier post that did act have been safe havens. Surely if they could work it out so too could the MOH!
I've seen the worshipping of Dr Bloomfield and prediction of his being "New Zealander of the Year'. He is doing a good job but I would give it to the managers of Radius, Rymans, Summerset - just look at what happened in Italy, Spain, UK and NY. Time to name them and publish photos.
Dr Bloomfield is too compromised over the perhaps inevitable chasm between his airy pronouncements of 'PPE for All' and the sad reality of inadequate PPE at hopelessly managed outfits like Waitemata DHB, now to qualify. He is a sincere man, but being a PR mouthpiece for endlessly-spun facts and figures has done him no credit. Those WDHB nurses who were forced to transfer between WuHuFlu and other wards, and who have subsequently caught the damn thing, wouldn't Vote for that award, I suspect.....
Unfortunately for him that is the rub of the green. For instance the false news of a patient near mortality being announced by him as being stable. Really dropped in it that time, any form of livid justified. That’s what you get though when you are representing at the podium live, the warts and all, bottom to top, of the outfit you are being paid to be in charge of. That is when the reality of the very serious management cock ups such as Waitemata, can be sheeted home tellingly one would hope.
Sad to hear about the young butcher passing away - the one who went on telly stating the unfair treatment of independent butchers unable to operate in L4 vs Supermarkets.
I wonder if proponents of a severe lockdown will start to see the corollary.
The damage of any action taken is always obvious after the fact.
What can't be seen as clearly is the benefit of those actions. We just end up wherever we are.
We'll never know if 60,000 lives were saved by the Lockdown or not.
Heavy is the head that wears the crown etc.
I don't buy this. Turning off the economy with three day's notice was always going to be devastating. The damage was easily forseeable.
The question really is: Were all reasonable steps taken prior to this in a timely way so that the lockdown was inevitable, or did we miss some crucial early steps that could have lessened the need for it? E.g. isolation of new arrivals earlier than was enacted, etc. We physically quarantined the repatriation flight passengers from Wuhan in Northern Auckland, but let other people in from all over the place even when it was obvious Covid19 was in those countries as well without even so much as a 'please stay at home for two weeks'. This is a pretty glaring inconsistency that needs explaining to the NZ public immediately.
None of that matters!
It's Wednesday 13th May 2020. All that matters is "what happens from here".
Past decisions taken, were taken. Good, bad or indifferent. Maybe they will affect future calls. We'll see when we have to make them.
But, will we keep the borders closed now? Almost certainly.
Will we give people more/different notice if Lockdown is needed again? Ditto.
"We" had the blink of an eye's time to make a decision on 'what to do' when confronted with a problem, that whilst we knew about from 100 years ago hoped we'd never have to face.
We did the best we could have done.
I mean, in this particular scenario the govt picked winners and it cost many their livelihoods and some their lives. Why did they let supermarkets open while butchers and grocers couldn't? It's completely irrelevant to borders or lockdown notice.
Edit: Sorry, upon reading GV's comment further I see you are responding to them.
No problem.
NZ thinks it did the right thing in the actions I took.
Given the timeframe involved in ordinary decision making, when just getting a building consent can take 3 years, decision making was at light speed - and given the 'expert' information to hand at the time, it had to be.
Brazil, too, thinks it's doing the right thing for its people and economy. So is the UK, and Australia and the USA and Sweden and Korea and China - you get the gist.
And all of those actions are - different, except for one. Trying to isolate the infected from the well.
That's what we did, and are doing, and if I had to choose one place to be right now, it would be here. (NB: I'm sure we all have overseas friends and colleagues, and to a person, they all have said the same thing "NZ is THE place to be")
Just because other people made bigger mistakes doesn't mean we should put our fingers in our ears when it comes to ones that we may have also made.
I'm not sure "At least I'm not in Brazil" is much comfort to people who have been made redundant.
You know my view on that.
Corovid19 isn't the reason for the economic pickle and the redundancies that we see about us today, it's the excuse. And you see the same thing. This isn't as much of a Health issue as it is an Economic one.
We had an economy that was prone to economic hardship the way we had built it over the last 40 years. That time arrived.
Given it was inevitable, someone(s) was always going to get hurt - they always are.
Now you may say "that' all very well, but think about the individuals that are suffering" and I do. I have family who are embroiled in this mess. Jobs lost and family fragmentation. So I do understand.
But it was always coming; it's here. Now. What are we going to do about it to lessen the impact next time? Because sure as Hell, if we don't, then what we have today will be dwarfed by what comes tomorrow.
John Key in a recent interview for Ray White realty said things would get tough as every business would shed 20% of staff or costs..quote"you don't waste a crisis..." in other words many businesses will hide behind covid 19,use it as an excuse for their poorly run businesses shed staff,reduce wages & conditions etc.
Look at McD's & KFC,reportedly did about 5 weeks business in the first few days of re-opening...so net effect,no loss of earnings,reduced staff levels and a wage subsidy.
And tragic as it is,the Mad Butcher and franchises have been an absolute cluster for ages,the little ones have been folding and crying foul over how the master franchise treats them.
Neither should we ignore the economic lessons learned from previous pandemics, featured on this very site yesterday and already forgotten:
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104952/gareth-vaughan-impact-pandemi…
There is no simple choice between no lockdown / no economic devastation vs. lockdown / economic devastation.
If you refuse to learn from the past how can you make better decisions...
Humanity has gives central governing power to provide conditions less chaotic and feudal. This does not mean we blindly follow them when social contract is broken.
If you read all of my posts you'll see that there's no mention of 'not learning from the past'.
On the contrary, that is how we formulate decisions to be made in the future.
Go back 8 weeks and look at the ones made at the time, and it's a certainty that today any ones made would be different.
As I repeatedly say "It's all easy looking back".
Oh, and that Social Contract you mention? Isn't that exactly what's been exercised in Locking Down New Zealand? It was done with the best of intentions; mindful of what cost would have to be paid at some stage.
That the magnitude of those costs is different from what might have been expected isn't 'breaking the Social Contract'. It's facing the reality that NO ONE knows what the future holds. NO ONE.
And as most of us who have ever had to make hard decisions knows - if it ever boils down to a choice between two alternatives, picking the right one is a matter of luck ( otherwise it would be an obvious choice .The action would be predetermined)
Yes, talking of not learning from even the recent past. It's interesting to see just home much Trump mucked up the managing of containing the virus out break in the US. The BBC have put together a very good short overview of the "lost six weeks" where Trump was in denial about the seriousness of the out break. Very much worth watching.
BBC Coronavirus: The lost six weeks when US failed to contain outbreak. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-52622037/coronavirus-the-lo…
Yes,
A very "Telling" piece....No small wonder why the World is in a mess....and the USA is dying to beat the Economic Meltdown that is of their own making.
Building like mad, his own Empire.. (State) Buildings....and Luxury Hotels with debt does not a Leader of the True World....endure.
They voted him in....they got what they deserve.....must be a suicide pact......for the "Economies" sake.
How insane, but you just have to see his "Aim"...when he tries to Trump.....them all.
I No's best....Yeah right.
It sure read to me and others that you wanted to bury analysis of outcomes v decision.
The social contract is broken when citizens have had enough of governance! It’s already frayed - re more and more people ignoring lockdown rules.
Two separate issues. Yes we want best decisions from here on out, as we always do. But in predicting the ability of government, or any worker to do a job past performance is the best indicator, and govt have failed to deliver almost everything they said they would do for 2.5years, and have magnified the size of the economic fallout from wuflu due to same inability to deliver. (On early border quarantine for bad-at-logistics reasons, on good contact tracing for bad-at-logistics reasons, on good legal/rules frameworks for bad-at-forward-planning reasons....) Their focus on propeganda and furtive butt-covering rather than effective governance is at the root of their failings.
"Passing away" that's such a sterile euphemism
I went to school with him - my brother knew him better. That was on top of another mate from a smaller town, of the same age,who took his life this week. That makes 12 males between 35 - 40 years old in the last 4 years that have taken their lives - that I personally knew -thats not including the countless others I've heard of.
We have a serious problem with males in this age group. I have been trying to rack my brain why?
I told myself I wouldn't comment today, but I felt this was an issue worth highlighting.
Sorry to hear that Korki....suicide is awful leaves a legacy of hell for everyone. I don’t think it is something that anyone can comprehend unless they have been through it or seen other people go through it. The aftermath can destroy lives and yes men are the main group, likely lack of feeling seen and valued and pressures to earn money / be a certain way and often childhood and communication skills etc. Not many people learn to have healthy boundaries and how to communicate well and to self respect / disclpine. It is something I would not wish on anyone....and I speak from personal experience it nearly ruined my life several times.
Thanks Kat. The thing is all the men I knew were great guys, caring, well liked - I'm sure if they understood the trauma it causes they'd think twice. Which makes me think the burden and suffering they were under must have been immense.
When I look back at my childhood, a few friends father's took their lives also - and they would have been a similar age. I think your right that it's about the stage of your life you reflect on your choices and achievements, and if you haven't met societies/family/friends standard you can feel like a failure. But I'm only guessing none left notes saying why.
I myself have had very dark years, but recently decided to give up drink indefinitely - the impact on my mental health has been huge. I've felt joy for the first time in 15 years.
So my first piece of advice for anyone feeling low is - stop drinking alcohol, and go for a run/walk - if you can find the motivation - which can be hard.
I won't post again today I need a break. Take care Kat.
+1 to giving up alcohol. And I was only on a glass or 2 of wine Fri/Sat to wind down end of the week. At some point last year, I was the most scared I can ever remember being. I had no idea why I was feeling and thinking like I was. What had caused me to start falling into this big black hole. If I could just figure it out then maybe I could do something about it. The odd bout of looking on line on where to seek help. But holding me back I was terrified that if I got in contact with some support service and I felt they had nothing to offer then it might be the last straw. Rationalised by dealings with the health sector in general. Sometimes you get a good result straight away, sometimes not. Hanging on day by day by day. Slowly the fog started to lift a little bit. Not enough to get hopeful but enough to know I could definitely get through another day. Life is good as ever now. Wish I knew how but I don't. It just is. I'm grateful. Just hang in there people.
Great job gents - not easy.
40's are the most unhappy years in a mans life - after that you generally get progressively happier until death. Failing to live up to the hopes and dreams we have is probably at the root of a lot of it. Modern freedom is a double edged sword, with lots of opportunity for success, but then also a greater sense of failure if you aren't successful by whatever standards you judge yourself by.
The ugly truth is that men are expendable. 1 man and 100 woman = 100 babies, 1 woman and 100 men = war. Woman are born with inherent value as they can produce babies. This boiled down means that people (men and woman) reject and avoid men who are struggling, this is why men bottle it up. Deep down most of us men know how people react to your struggles.
Edit: also wanted to say that is horrible to hear all this. Have been through the same situation myself a few times and it is unbearable.
I think that these are seem of the deeper things that society has to confront - that same things are too taboo to talk about yet they ruin and destroy lives. The war becomes at home for some people and lots of people are often just holding it together and it can seem one way from the outside and be so different on the inside. Society I think will really only change and work it is accepted that everyone has a range of emotions and we prioritise and give access to real / proper help and support for everyone.
This is just the beginning. Jacinda's ham fisted lockdown is going to take more through suicide than the CCP virus would have.
https://www.ft.com/content/7d500105-4349-4721-b4f5-179de6a58f08?desktop…
A free FT read on Chinas diplomacy tactics.
Also have a read of the Land Securities results ~ a sign of things to come for stocks like Argosy here.
Fed Study Says Pandemic Likely to Have Muted Impact on Deflation
The actual way you get out of deflation is with an actual monetary solution, but, again, given the situation Jay Powell’s only got psy-ops at his disposal. He thinks these are sufficient because those under his umbrella of influence include pretty much everyone in the mainstream press Link
You don’t go into complete shutdown and then come out the other side like nothing happened. And then, disgustingly, to be told to depend upon “stimulus” as the crucial element clinching the argument for how everything will end up returning to normal? What normal? Link
Do you by any chance know how many US home-owners lost their homes and total equity as a result of the 2008 GFC American merchant-bank CDS epidemic, lost their credit-ratings, lost everything. How many recovered. Or are they just sitting on the sidelines watching this latest tsunami of QE washing over the fat-cats
No. But this current story points out the difficulties of getting government supported banks loans without collateral.
P8 - if you ever feel like exploring your blind spots, a fellow boomer might be able to help enlighten you, noting that you don't like data presented from any other generation.
Have the boomers pinched their children's futures?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXzvjBYW8A
Unless boomers change direction and policy demands, I'm going to rightly call them the generation of self licking ice cream cones.
Please enjoy.
Unless the youth change direction I'm going to call them F'wits.
They have the ability to bring meaningful change to their future from the ballot box. Get behind a party that wants to limit the damage. They only need to hold the BOP and they can get meaningful change.
Land tax, CGT, Means tested pensions, pension age, stamp duty, Inheritance Tax, the list goes on and now we have stopped NZs economy to protect essentially the boomers.
The solution is to get out and vote. No wonder the major parties dont want it compulsory.
ps I am a reasonably well off Boomer, voted National until early 2010s until I realised the damage boomer policies were having.
Bit hard to muster the enthusiasm when every candidate in my short voting life, the last 4 elections, has said one thing on the campaign trail and done another thing in power. Every single time I voted for a candidate or party on the basis of some policy, they have not followed through. When I send them a letter asking why they haven't done so, I get fobbed off by their PR intern. Our democracy is a sick joke.
I upticked.
Yes - They are a dismal lot. Mostly time servers, the moment they get elected start thinking about 3 years down the road.
I recall Winston being in the Economist magazine in the 80s being touted as a ray of light, future PM. His type, think Judith and that age group, when they retire, how useless will they feel?
Longer terms might be the solution but I always admired the Singapore model, essentially a friendly dictatorship but lately the surveillance is becoming a worry ...
Yes totally agree with you Smalltown. There's so much that we could do to revers the major damage that National caused to NZ citizens/residents.
And I agree we need to tax those that have massively increased the cost of living in this country making it impossible to younger generations to afford to live here. One tax I would add to that list is an Empty Homes tax in main city areas to target Overseas Investors, other countries have managed to implement this with huge revenue returns to help boost their economy.
Younger generations need more like yourself to help too. People who realise that if young are asked to support the old in their old age that the legacy that is left to young and future generations also matters.
A couple of problems with that view Smalltown.
1. As pointed out by Shoreman, we (I'm not a boomer) continue to vote thinking that political parties will remain true to their word, then they back track when in office so as to please the boomers and their wealth.
2. Boomers can actually be quite the bullies, even if they are unaware of that. I know quite a few millennils whose parents tell them they must buy a house, settle down, have the kids etc and live the life that they lived. So then they start voting for the same policies as the generation above them, even though in the long run, doing so isn't the best thing for them but instead the boomer parents. Look at all those who have been influenced into buying into the property market the last 3-5 years often by boomers with vested interests - even looks at a lot of the comments on this website!
3. We really should be pushing the super age up to 67 asap to save some money but aint gonna happen. Even though it would be the best move for the future of the country, no political party will touch it because of the boomers. We should have wealth taxes. Again nobody will touch it. So really it boils down to boomers realising the power and responsbility they have, to stop behaving like self interested teenagers, and to vote with a utilitarian view where they are grateful for what they have received and give the opportunity for future generations to prosper.
So I'm going to point the finger back in your direction and you and say that it is the boomers with the voting power that must change direction, not the younger generations. Call me a f'wit if you want, I couldn't give a toss. But that will make me an informed f'wit who can see clearly where the heart of the issue/s come from and leave you frozen in the centre of the generation of the self licking ice cream cone, dead inside 20 years, and leaving not much other than a terrible legacy as a generation.
You cant vote prosperity into office
And the wealth is gone
Its way too late
That was an interesting video, thanks for sharing. Can't say I agree with his ideas at the end of the video, but at least he's thinking about it!
The official US Government budget statement for April pegs the monthly deficit at -US$738 bln (an all-time one month record) and the deficit for the past twelve months at -US$2.9 tln (also a record). It is on its way to at least a -US$5 tln deficit in 2020 and more than -20% of US GDP. Eye-watering stuff.
The more debt the Treasury has to sell, the more demand there is for it.
Pressure on society is building economically here also. Redundancies starting to ramp up, Businesses will get an initial hit when L2 starts tomorrow, but the new norm will kick in after a few weeks . So lets hope Grant has a couple of massive white rabbits and one large hat tomorrow.
US divided on return-to-work plan;
World over polticans are fighting against each other instead of fighting jointly against Corona Virus - well politicans too have to survive and have to do politics be it US or NZ, specially in election year.
China and India go for big stimulus;
Stimulus is the key word. For time to come Economy will be based on Stimulus only.
Australia fights with China;
This is just the beginning and though China has peneteraded politically and economically in many countries will be hard this time for China to bully and get away.
A sample of petrol prices in Aussie this morning on RACQ website range from 99 CENTS per litre to $1,10 , even Towoomba , a place located to hell and gone from nowhere is just $1.01 / litre .
What the hell is going on here in New Zealand ?
We are really getting screwed big time .
And if another idiot tells me I am being "unfair "on our Oil Companies because I dont understand the NZ oil market, then maybe they would care to enlighten me.
Taxes
Cartel.
Supposedly illegal here.
Dropped about 15c up our way since TSHTF.
Reminds me of my Pakistani friend - ASIF
Large parts of Melbourne are under 90c for 91. Lots of competition there apparently .
https://petrolspy.com.au/map/latlng/-37.78414304718696/144.950550261738…
...but you just dont understand the kiwi market BM.
Taxes account for most of that difference. Of course, if you think there is money to be made selling it cheaper here, you can always become an importer. But would you invest real money in an industry that may be heading for a sunset? If you wouldn't you can hardly complain.
Okay David , I accept that 63 cents of the retail price of petrol is excise duty and GST, but there is no excise duty on Diesel ( we pay RUC's).
So why is diesel still so expensive ?
The cost of the refined product (petrol) is a mere 13% of the pump price (AA figures 3 weeks ago 20 April ) , and this component has likely declined due to lower oil prices , but the drop has not been passed through to us the consumer .
Now I understand there are price - makers in any market and price - takers , and in our market Gull is the small player that in reality should be the price -taker , but has been upsetting the apple-cart which does indicate the market mechanism is working , to a degree
But it does not answer the question as to why , when Diesel fuel was under $1 in Tauranga 18 months ago and petrol was around $1,50 to $1,70 at a time when crude was much higher , we are now paying so much more .
There has been almost no huge one-off or unusual Capital expenditure on in NZ on refineries , oil storage , or retail outlets , so the cost base of oil companies has not increased much ( wages are static , rents are in decline and corporate borrowing costs -interest - is s low as it has ever been )
The whole thing , not unlike the pricing by banks of their services , smacks of price -collusion at worst or simple price - gouging at best .
That Z has reported massive losses (almost certainly that loss is due to falling sales volumes ) and is having a rights issue to "reduce interest -bearing debt " should be a wake up call to them for a big change to their business model , cost structure and pricing .............noting too that Z is the most expensive retailer .
Unless Z wants to become an easily accessible Dairy convenience store to stop for (expensive ) bread and milk , they need to be more competitive in pricing , and win customers back . Fuel is a grudge purchase , and winning back customers would be simple through lower prices and vigorous competition
If that leads to a price war , that's good for us as consumers and as a nation , because in a price was , like the airlines price -wars a few years ago , the market eventually arrives at a fair price that we are all comfortable with .
As Z will eventually realize , the market will dictate the outcome , its just a matter of time before the light-bulbs come on in the Z Boardroom , and they find themselves facing a new reality
Re the number of active cases, don't forget to deduct the 21 deceased to obtain the remaining active cases (78 yesterday vice 99)
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-no…
This is a story that's unfolding that we need to keep an eye on over the next few weeks , the oil price collapse AND Covid -19 has had a real bad effect on probably one of the worlds richest , most stable Democarcy .
It would be unthinkable a few weeks ago to suggest Norway , that bastion of good governance , stability , and caring for its people would be in a spot of bother
............Norway plans to draw a record 382 billion kroner from its wealth fund, forcing the world’s biggest sovereign investor to embark on an historic asset sale to generate cash.
While that asset sale may not in itself depress market prices , if other oil countries like Saudi , UAE , Kuwait etc do the same , it will be problematic
Michael Reddell and Ian Harrison have both been before the Epidemic Response Committee this morning. Ian is particularly scathing about the complete lack of cost-benefit analysis anywhere in the WuHuFlu response decision-making now or then. Ian's still on if'n y'all are Interested.
Good to hear some are trying to illuminate the ad-hoc nature of government decisions.
Myopic without evidence of contemplating other approaches.
Yeah I watched it - the AM session
So far we have had a debate about the economics of the covid response - this morning had 4 economists prattling on about the economics of it all. Harrison went on at length about the relative values of the economic residual life benefit of a 17 year-old versus the economic benefit of the residual life of a 90 year-old in a hospice with a statistical life expectancy of 1.9 years
The program SHOULD have led off with the views of 2 ethicists and the ethics of life v death v economics
All good as far as That goes. But it's the ethicists' children and lo, even until the third generation, that's gonna be Paying for this cash splash via taxes, reduced life opportunities, and possibly reduced life-spans through stress and debt. Put That into the mix and suddenly economics (in the original sense of running a household) looms larger.....
The game of hot potato starts to see who will be left holding the bad debt - coming to a town near you soon!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121420580/coronavirus-tourism-companie…
And the flow down plus all the other down turns and a very unsettling global economy. It is going to be ugly but only a few get it at present.
If I had anything to sell I would be moving fast. Thankfully I sold at the end of last year...
A good afternoon read.
https://www.amazon.com/Silent-Invasion-Chinas-Influence-Australia/dp/17…
Respected academic Clive Hamilton realised something big was happening when, in 2016, it was revealed that wealthy Chinese businessmen linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had become the largest donors to both major Australian political parties. Hamilton began to investigate the Chinese government's influence in Australia. What he found shocked him.
From politics to culture, real estate to agriculture, universities to unions, and even in primary schools, he uncovered compelling evidence of the CCP's infiltration of Australia. It is no exaggeration to say the CCP and Australian democracy are on a collision course, with the CCP determined to win, while Australia looks the other way.
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