Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news equity markets may be up, but the economic news is still grim.
The May edition of the Fed's Beige Book surveys is depressing reading. It summarises all the regional Fed districts and can't find many positives at all. They say there is hope overall activity will pick-up as businesses reopen, but their outlook remains highly uncertain and most surveyed were pessimistic about the potential pace of recovery. Employment and wages were all reported negatively.
None of this will be a surprise - we have been tracking the individual Fed regional surveys for some time and this is what they have shown. Today the Richmond Fed reported on the powerhouse Mid-Atlantic states and it is reporting sharp declines still, even if they aren't as low as in April.
There is more evidence from the weekly Johnson Redbook survey of retail activity. Last week there was yet another decline - both year-on-year, and month-on-month even if the scale of theses declines are lessening.
More very large job layoffs were announced overnight, worldwide.
If you are looking for positives, perhaps a rise in American mortgage applications are what you need.
Also rising is the scale of the Fed's balance sheet. The overall level indicates just how much monetary policy support their QE machine is pumping in to keep their economy functioning. And it is massive, massive even compared with what Congress has done. It is a balance sheet that has just moved on up over US$7 tln now, up +$103 bln in the latest week reported, and up +US$2.7 tln since mid March. (It is actually up US$2.725 tln, so the rounding here - US$25 bln or NZ$40 bln - is actually almost the same as the RBNZ's own total balance sheet size.) The US Fed is on a different planet.
In the EU, they have a NZ$1.4 tln recovery plan and a NZ$2 tln budget over the next seven years, which, if approved, would deepen its economic union in a way that even the eurozone debt crisis failed to achieve.
It has not been a great 24 hours for China in the diplomatic front. The US says it is moving to remove Hong Kong's special status with them, and the Huawei extradition case in Canada has gone against them. In Hong Kong, the big money is siding with China, the Hong Kong people however are taking to the streets.
It hasn't been that great for them on the data front either, with industrial profits in April still down sharply, and their 'recovery' seeming a long way off. Default risk is rising for many large companies. From a New Zealand point of view, perhaps a silver lining is that the Chinese food sector isn't being hit as hard as most others.
China may be facing a recession in Q2-2020.
In Australia, their banking regulator is warning they are far from being out of the woods yet. They specifically warned banks not to rush to rebuild capital buffers, and to disclose to shareholders 'reliable and accurate' information of the mounting threats.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 5,640,000 and up +91,000 from this time yesterday, which is rising at a faster pace than recently.
Now, just on 30% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +17,000 since this time yesterday to 1,689,100. This is a slowing rate of increase but still more than any other country. US deaths are now exceed 99,000. Global deaths now exceed 353,000.
In Australia, there are now 7139 cases (+6), 103 deaths (+1) and a recovery rate of just under 92%. 30 people are in hospital there (unchanged) with 6 in ICU (+1). There are now 470 active cases in Australia (-8).
There were zero cases again yesterday in New Zealand, leaving the total unchanged at 1504 cases identified as either confirmed (1154) or probable (350). There is now no-one in hospital with the disease. Our recovery rate is now just over 97%, with only 21 people known to be still fighting the infection here, all isolated.
The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps today at 0.67%. Their 2-10 curve is flatter at +47 bps. Their 1-5 curve is at +17 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also flatter +57 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 0.88%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.71%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is firmer, up +6 bps at 0.74%.
The gold price is basically unchanged today at US$1,713/oz.
Oil prices are softer today, by about -US$1/bbl. The US crude price is now just under US$33/bbl. The international oil price is just under US$35/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar has softened slightly overnight. We are now just over 61.7 USc. On the cross rates we are marginally higher at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 56.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has slipped to 67.5.
Bitcoin is back up today, up +4.5% from this time yesterday to US$9,197. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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China news
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52793343
A Canadian court has ruled that the case of senior Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, who is fighting extradition to the United States, can go forward.
A judge found that the case meets the threshold of double criminality - meaning the charges would be crimes in both the US and Canada.
Discusses the sea change in china since 2017.
https://youtu.be/xW8rNpe_c3M
Ironically the US is becoming more like the China every day. Apparently the Trump Toddler and Chief wants to shutdown Social Media companies due to Twitter fact-checking him. Such a big baby! Next he'll be sectioning off the internet and sending out dodgy Youtube propaganda links. :)
BBC article quote: "The threat came after Twitter added fact-check links to his tweets for the first time. The battle between the president and the social-media companies has been brewing for a time." https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52821304
As retribution, China has held two canadians hostage since December 2018. What sort of judicial system do they have in China. Obviously, nothing. No wonder the citizens of Hong Kong are fearful of their outcome. There is going to be a lot of financial movement away from China when this pandemic is over.
I fear for Taiwan. China is giving up all pretence of playing nice. Imagine the power China will hold over the west if they marched into Taiwan because some of the worlds leading technology resides there. I note that the worlds leading edge chip maker, TSMC, are building a microchip factory in Arizona to give more security of supply to the west. Kind of like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire given the bullying and worryingly unstable behaviour coming out of the USA. Anything could happen there. I would be choosing somewhere more neutral and secure. Like NZ? Why are we not chasing opportunities like this. Even Australia. It has a huge surplus of land. It could carve off for example the York Peninsular and create a semi autonomous state into which the Taiwan could transfer it's people and industry and leave behind an empty Island for the Chinese.
I think that we could if chose to
A very strong citizen army where every able bodied person was trained in national defence like Switzerland or Israel. Do you think that any country would be successful occupying another country where all the citizens were armed and trained at defeating you. Even the USA has never been able to do this in countries not even half as well organised and defended.
If we can put a satellite in to orbit around the moon, as we will soon be doing, then it should not be hard for us to develop a missile defence system adequate to destroy any invading ships.
When I think more about it. This is exactly what Taiwan should be doing.
See what is happening in Xinjiang (East Turkistan). China does not fight fair. Main difference with America is they exert some control over existing govt and impose a military base or two - that is all. China brings in Han chinese to outnumber existing population. If willing to go to Tibet and Xinjiang just think of how many choose NZ.
Having said all that I agree - we need a large territorial army similar to Switzerland. NZ has a small population, it could be invaded by China (or even the Manila police force). Hitler could have invaded Switzerland just as Stalin invaded Finland but the world's public opinion mattered then and matters now.
Yes, it would require an about face in public opinion in NZ it seems? That is one of the reasons the USA has retained the basic right to bear arms. It was stated by Japanese officials after WWII that one of the reasons there was not serious consideration of the invasion of mainland USA was the proliferation of privately held arms in the US would have meant they were fighting the whole armed country not just the official armed forces. Take from it what you will, it is what some officials from a maniacal, fanatical regime said.....so it gives one pause.
Its beyond sad.
Flightless Kiwi economy to land with a thud
"No national leader has been as feted as Jacinda Ardern. But while she might have popular support, she is pushing the NZ economy off a cliff."
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/coronavirus-flightless-kiwi…
Take a look at the comments too, in a how others see us, awareness way.
They talk aloud about how many kiwis will get across to Australian jobs.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Adam_Creighton?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwca…
https://mobile.twitter.com/murdochsj
Finally someone sees through the endless cooing! My old pod pal, AC, nails it
@ adam_creighton
Flightless Kiwi economy to land with a thud
Correct, JA polarises Australians - the left love her while the right actively dislike her. She has far more charisma, charm and leadership than all their politicians put together and they know that. Morrison Hillsong league fan, I mean seriously, Ardern throws shade all over them on the world stage. She's just got to execute on the domestic economy.
I don't know, watching Muller on Q & A he looked like he was conducting an orchestra with his hands and arms moving. Jack stunned him with a number of questions. Now Mark Richardson has come out damming him. Is there a window of opportunity for Simon to slip through. It looks like its antibodies party at the moment. Perhaps, Jamie Lee might be in with a chance.
Yes, I know The Australian very, very well. It’s not a bad news source but its editorial line is rabidly anti- Labor, and anti-Labour by extension. I use ‘rabidly’ advisedly. It’s a great example of a media outlet that has good reporting but profoundly biased opinion pieces.
yep..just like fox entertainment in the USA. They do a reasonable job of reporting the news but use their platform to suck people into believing their right wing nationalist propaganda is also news because the uneducated masses do not have the intelligence to tell the difference between news and 'experts' opinions....
The term cognitive dissonance is used to describe the feelings of discomfort that result when your beliefs run counter to your behaviors and/or new information that is presented to you.1
People tend to seek consistency in their attitudes and perceptions, so when what you hold true is challenged or what you do doesn't jibe with what you think, something must change in order to eliminate or reduce the dissonance (lack of agreement).
A classic example of this is "explaining something away."
New Zealand has debated economic transformation along these lines for decades. But even the substantial economic reforms to open and free up the economy several decades ago have not resulted in productivity growth to the extent that many economists would have expected.
Cool. Here is the thing.
First thought. The massive spending was ill directed and govt need not have make payments to lawyers and accountants...
Second thought, the woeful sum of resources, too few ventilators, icu beds, abscent contact tracing system. The resources on hand meant the lockdown was harder than if would have been had resources been on hand.
The issue I alluded to was that you somehow mixed the two separate thoughts together to produce a nonsense. A nonsense "explain - it - away".
Sure that is fine then - but don't make it about the current government then. Just say historically NZ government has under spent/under funded healthcare in NZ, both Labour and National, therefore tighter lockdown restrictions were put in place.
How is that?
But that isn't how the article reads - it looks like an attack on the current government - then the question becomes why the bias and what is its aim?
Do you always vote National or Act? Just trying to see if there is an element of tribalism in your views. One gets the feeling you could be a National supporter because your parents are National supporters.
I'm the first to admit the COL aren't perfect - they aren't. Happy?
(and I've voted for National in the past!)
You have to ask Dr Death wouldn't you?
Looks like as a % of GDP it took a thrashing under National - but that is probably unfair as they had bigger economic goals which I appreciate. You just can't have you cake and eat too in the argument above.
https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/health-expenditure-total-perce…
He lost my interest with "Since she imposed the favoured pandemic solution of the left ..."
Which, incidentally, received majority support https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/23-04-2020/public-backing-for-nz-gove…
Also "New Zealand ranks fourth last in the OECD for labour productivity growth, and last for multi-factor productivity growth" appears to have been correct in 2017. However, NZ has improved its ranking and is now ahead of Australia. Not that this got mentioned. https://data.oecd.org/lprdty/multifactor-productivity.htm
That's the critical thing. Lockdown is a sunk cost. Big choice is on who can lift NZ out of the deep dark hole we find ourselves in. It for sure isn't the coalition who have failed at everything they have said they would do, have no commercial experience, and harbor deep antipathy for all the instruments of economic growth (business large and small, farming, industry) and love for all the things that kill it (regulating everything, restriction of labor markets, public sector growth, big govt intervention, increasing taxation, growing welfare...)
I had a look at this modern castle in 2015. Cost $170m to build. GFC 1 upset the plans of the owners and it was up for sale while I was there, discounted to $140m. Sale price $14m. https://missoulian.com/news/local/private-island-mansion-listed-at-m-se…
Neverland had to be pulled... with a name like that it does not inspire confidence amongst MJ devotees
Michael Jackson's ranch pulled off the market after 5 years: PHOTOS - Business Insider
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/michael-jacksons-n…
Looks good.No Covid cases in hospital. Turns out Covid has special bit on it, same as HIV that stops our immune system nailing it. Could only have been put together in lab! More to blame Chinese for. USA going to hell in a handcart. Except the 1% of course. House prices may halve, according to NZRB Governor. Opportunities galore.
Lots of scary stuff here. It seems it may well have been bred to atack humans not animals. The lab appears to have been set up to do just that: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8351113/Wuhan-virus-lab-signed…
Read the article:
Professor Nikolai Petrovsky, a top vaccine researcher who headed the Australian team, said the virus was ‘not typical of a normal zoonotic [animal to human] infection’ since it appeared with the ‘exceptional’ ability to enter human bodies from day one.
Yeah but it's such a dumb statement to make without context. Of course this one has an "exceptional ability to enter the human body from day one"! It's not like scientists go out and catalogue every corona viruses in existence with extreme vigour. The only reason they are doing that with this one is because of it's ability to do just that. That's not evidence it was made in a lab. It just means that it happened to have mutated a certain way to do that - we got unlucky. With these sorts of viruses mutating all the time, it's going to happen occasionally that they develop the ability to enter humans really well. Even at one in a billion, we can still expect these viruses to pop up reasonably often.
We have evidence that this happens - i.e. every other pandemic/epidemic in human history. I suppose the Spanish Flu was also developed in a lab because it was really good at spreading? That's where this sort of logic must take you.
You know what proves the existence of god? The asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs was of just the right size/velocity etc to wipe them all out. Therefore god because it was done so well.
Nature is like a driver after 6 beers. Most of the time it will get home OK, but will probably have some near misses. Occasionally it will fall asleep at the wheel and take out an entire family.
sit23
"House prices may halve, according to NZRB Governor."
That is quite incorrect.
NZRB did some stress testing of banks using what they considered extreme situations; this was to test bank stability in which the 48% fall was one of scenarios and the worst case one tested.
Orr clearly stated that the RBNZ estimate is 10% and certainly not the "halve" as you quote.
In his summation, he also made comment to the press that the information be reported "responsibility" - i.e. these were simply tests of bank resilience under different scenarios.
You quoting "House prices may halve, according to NZRB Governor" is fake news.
As asked by other posters, you really need to verify your claim regarding the covid being "put together"; you are coming across as a purveyor of fake news and conspiracy theories. r
I spose $50 mill gifted to NZ MSM is going to focus more on things like PM's DYI hair dye.
The rushed Log Brokers Bill - "The period for consultation is tighter than even the emergency actions on high-powered automatic firearms spurred by the Christchurch mosque attacks."
"A powerful New Zealand First figure helped establish a forestry company that then pushed for money from two key funding streams controlled by a New Zealand First Minister.
...On 29 August it announced it had entered into an agreement to acquire Claymark Group Holdings, a New Zealand-US wood product manufacturer.
And just last week, the company said it had entered into a "strategic transaction" to purchase a 25 percent stake in Northland lumber company North Sawn Lumber and help it build a sawmill in Ruakaka."
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/nz-first-linked-forestry-compan…
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/105202/farmers-and-forest-owners-…
Handling quarantine. Don't copy a prison - it is expensive, unkind and almost encourages escapes. Copy the idea of a prison garb so the public can tell who has a risk factor. Require wearing a yellow and white striped quarantine jacket with optional national flag indicating origin and date of arrival. So a returnee from London would be carefully avoided (I'm in the high risk of fatality category). But wouldn't cross the road to avoid a Taiwanese wearing quarantine-id.
Leaving it to the public to decide the risks and the govt monitors wearing of jacket. Any better idea?
I though of that myself and implied it with the 'prisoner' remark. But my motivation is I want to visit my family in Europe when that is possible and I certainly want to return to my home in Auckland. Multiply by all the others who would like to do similar and the govt would need to build tens of thousands of quarantine cells by maybe this time next year (checkout their speed with Kiwibuild). So I return to NZ; I've been to UK & France and therefore I am a risk to fellow Kiwis. Give me the option of wearing a identifiable garment (with facemask) and restrict me from bars, public transport and large gatherings but otherwise let me live my life from my own home so long as I make it clear that I am a risk.
What is your proposal? Fortress NZ like North Korea?
I spent half an hour on the phone last night with my stock agent. Tis drought has really impacted the industry. Many farmers still have no feed and no stock, on top of that we have very uncertain market outlook. I was south of Hastings yesterday and it was brown, two Cesco's flying N onto brown pasture, what is the point of that? Some fert rep has made some money out a farmer, the N is not need after a drought, especially when the grass is hardly growing anyway, it's just a waste of money when money could be tight for a few years. Top dressing pilots have had the best season for years.
People are still destocking my agent said there is no market, lambs have picked up as Manawatu farmers are doing fine, tight margins in sheep. Cattle are the big unknown with the US and Brazilian kill backed up till the end of the year
I have to put a few hundred thousand into cattle when the market is doing this, and god knows what to make of the market in China could be best ever or dead in water tomorrow due to some politicians brief unthoughtful comment.
https://www.bowmanextra.com/news_paid/i-band-disastrous-cattle-markets-…
https://www.bhpioneer.com/covid-19/sd-beef-producers-reeling-from-covid…
https://www.bakercityherald.com/coronavirus/ranchers-reeling/article_49…
How can we access risk, risk management really matters when you are putting thousands into livestock on tight margins. Job losses and Gov't shutdown of entire countries are an unknown , unknown. If you go by big companies like Boeing you would be super cautious, but I need livestock to pay the bills, so I have to jump in at some stage. Thoughts?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boeing-job-cuts-expected-strike-week
Hi Andrew, Hope this doesn't come across as a glib comment but we've all had to adapt since the impact of Covid myself included. As a live stock farmer, Have you considered diversifying a bit to market gardening? Since you already have the biggest investment which is land and the cost of fruits and vegetables is still very high here in NZ. The other advantage is that it would give you a mostly constant stream of revenue through out the year, since customers are moving away from meat products for various reasons.
Sure you would probably need to setup an irrigation system, though if you're north of Auckland then you have the advantage of little to no frost. Anyway food for thought. I would recommend looking at 'No Dig' growing with Charles Dowding since it's very productive with practically no overhead costs. Here's a link to get you started: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVY4SJt4mzg
Yeah like your comments have ever been helpful HW. And by the way, you already know that I currently use this gardening method for growing crops and it is very productive, unlike you. So have you put forward any ideas to help someone no you have not!
You're just an unhelpful troll HW and that's all you'll ever be! :)
I am always changing and I'm hoping my children will keep looking at new ideas. Chasing rainbows, has, in my life been the biggest cause of farm failure, by the time you develop into something that was paying best at the time, you become part of the overproduction and collapse.
I live in a frosty valley which takes a lot of horticulture out, that and the huge capital investment to get to an economic size, then you have to deal with regional councils, who have locked water takes into very inefficient large scale dairy farms, you have to get consent to farm, nutrient limits etc, lots of unknowns.
I am changing, trying solar capture, ie capturing max sun. Most horticulture investment is up over 100k a hectare in fact probably up to 250k a hectare I'm watching My Farm investment in Hops with interest.
I have already invested in a disk drill and tractor it's not cheap. Im looking at this guy with interest.
We've just had news of a second Covid death amongst family and friends overseas. First an aging grandfather in Massachusetts in the US, but this second so, so much harder as a middle aged father from SP in Brazil. Didn't get a chance to experience any grandchildren given a life cut short. And of course now we not only grieve with but worry for the rest of the wider family members. It really hits home to think about these friends and relatives living amongst communities of such fear and despair.
I guess my reason for sharing this is just to say we always need to count the blessing that is just being here in NZ. Hard as it will become economically for so many, I guess the best thing we can do is look to ways we can support those less well off. And everyone with land has a unique opportunity in this regard. Perhaps in your case, Andrew that could be thinking about growing for local as opposed to international markets - which might mean greater animal and crop diversity - small stocks of a bit of everything... a bit like the video clip. You know me, I've always been nuts about nuts - but berry crops are another of my favourites :-).
I know that doesn't help in terms of debt, but if you are lucky enough to have little, maybe it is a unique opportunity for interesting change in disguise.
All the best!
"We've just had news of a second Covid death amongst family and friends overseas. First an aging grandfather in Massachusetts in the US, but this second so, so much harder as a middle aged father from SP in Brazil. Didn't get a chance to experience any grandchildren given a life cut short. "
Kate,
So sorry to have this happen to you and your loved ones. Losing a loved one is hard enough, yet to be thousands of miles away and unable to travel makes it even more so. Remember to cherish those special and heart warming memories.
Wish you and all your loved ones much peace, strength and love at this very difficult time.
Agreed and solar capture sounds a very good solution, if you check out Charles free video he's also in a colder zone 8a, from what I remember and has very cost effective tips on how to deal with cooler climates (Since he's in the UK). Let us know how you get on, wish you all the best Andrew.
Government interference in risk management is one of its most destructive long term effects.
Poorly written laws can be fixed up eventually but denial of risk is denial of reality and reality always trumps ideology in the end. That is why so many socialist economies have gone bankrupt in the last 100 years.
I don't think so banks seem very accommodating, it's super stressful for the farmer, it all has to be paid back. My daughter got a 7.8k handout from gov't and could be due for another, poor old drought affected farmers are under a lot of pressure at present.
Also indebted farmers have been on a roll, buying neighbours with the banks happy to lend on equity, if they roll you are talking tens of millions each, in some cases over a hundred million. This buying of neighbours has kept prices above what smaller family farmers could afford to pay. Land prices are high still.
One of the problems is high land prices stop young innovators entering industry, big guys are just land banking. I think, even though I would be a loser, we desperately need an asset tax, restructure of councils and more tax depreciation on new developments.
I don't think any of these big farms can compete with a family run business, it's to do with their access to bank borrowings thats lets them get ahead.
Always good to hear reports straight from - er - the horse's mouth. Actually, come to think of it, and seeing the generally clueless suggestions upthread about Things you could Diversify Into, here's another one - draft horses. Classic zero-carbon motive power......
"US deaths are now exceed 99,000".
I challenged that yesterday already. I'm not one to discuss the virus - it's merely a warning to humans which I suspect they will ignore, as were the bushfires, as is oceanic plastic soup, as is... - but I find it interesting DC has twice held his number under 100k.
80% of nz households in or close to a financial crisis
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/300022299/cracks-appear-in-coalition-as-…
Also rising is the scale of the Fed's balance sheet. The overall level indicates just how much monetary policy support their QE machine is pumping in to keep their economy functioning.
The numbers just don’t add up. Even if you treat this stuff on the most charitable of terms, dollar for dollar, way too much of the hole almost certainly remains unfilled. That’s the thing about “stimulus” talk; for one thing, people seem to be viewing it as some kind of addition without thinking it all the way through first.
You have to begin by sizing up the gross economic deficit it is being haphazardly poured into – with an additional emphasis on “haphazardly.”
Everyone forgets the last time when the government tried this, impressing markets and the media with its huge numbers, that after it was over its proponents complained how it wasn’t big enough. Paul Krugman most of all (seriously, in November 2009, after it was over, he wrote Obama’s plan was awesome but it wasn’t “nearly enough”). If you don’t know how big is the abyss, if you can’t even size the thing up properly while it’s unfolding, how can you even attempt to call it “stimulus?” Link
Significant changes coming to Aussie dairy industry. But will it be enough to save the industry and farmers from themselves?
https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2020/05/26/Australian-farmers-and…
Australia's largest producer of certified organic dairy goes in to voluntary administration. https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2020/05/26/Organic-Dairy-Farmers-…
Czarnikow, a global supply chain, pricing and financial services company, said a survey shows the plant-based dairy alternatives industry is estimated to grow from $15.8bn in 2019 to $35.8bn by 2026.
https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2020/05/04/Pandemic-sees-spike-in…
Alternative including plant based doesn't necessarily mean dairy free. https://www.foodingredientsfirst.com/news/next-gen-fermentation-produce…
http://madewithmotif.com/
Word on the street is southern farmers supplying winter milk to a corporate processor with the liquid milk South Island contract for GF, have had their price cut from $9/kg 2019/20 to $6.30/kg for milk supplied this winter. So price has come down for the producers, but will that translate to price drops in the supermarkets ham n eggs? My guess is, no.
“Why would anyone expect stocks to price rationally?...Central Banks have been buying US$2.4 billion in financial assets per hour for the past eight weeks."
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/central-bank-asset-purchas…
The only place you can find inflation is in financial asset prices. You are just looking in the wrong place!
It's only been going on for over a decade, but they really need more data to say if the next lowering of interest rates or money printing program will result in inflation...
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